Tuesday’s Outcomes

I entered five new positions timed to coincide with earnings announcements: BBY, LOW, CRM and MYL.

My attempted exits of GM and SU have not been filled. I shall update Outcomes after the closing bell if the orders should go through.

I analyzed TRCO but found the trade to be so ridiculous that I rejected it with scornful laughter.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 28, 2017

 

TRCO Analysis

Tribune Media Co. (TRCO)

TRCO publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 52 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 35%, which is 2.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

TRCO’s IV stands in the 30th percentile of its annual range and the 99th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

MYL Analysis

Mylan N.V. (MYL)

Update 3/14/2017: MYL rose sharply after earnings were published and the declined beginning three days later. I exited at 15.6% of maximum potential profit, an early management of the position that evaded what looked to be a movement in the direction of loss. The price remains above the pre-announcement level.

Shares rose by 2.1% over 14 days or a 55% annual rate. The options position produced a 29.9% yield on debit for a +780% annual rate


 

MYL publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 52 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 39%, which is tripple VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

MYL’s IV stands in the 33rd percentile of its annual range and the 81st percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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CRM Analysis

salesforce.com inc. (CRM)

Update 3/8/2017: CRM rose sharply after earnings were published, staying in a sideways pattern long enough for time decay and falling implied volatility to produce sufficient profit for an exit, at 24.9% of maximum potential profit.

Shares rose by 11.0% over eight days, or a +499% annual rate. Tue options positon produced a 36.0% yield on debit for a +1,640% annual rate


 

CRM publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 52 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 34%, which is 2.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CRM’s IV stands in the 64th percentile of its annual range and the 60th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

LOW Analysis

Lowe’s Companies Inc. (LOW)

LOW publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 52 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 267%, which is 2.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

LOW’s IV stands in the 60th percentile of its annual range and the 77th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

BBY Analysis

Best Buy Co. Inc,. (BBY)

Update 3/2/2017: BBY fell sharply after earnings were published, pushing the position to 25.7% of maximum potential profit, slightly better than my target price. I exited in the morning, missing a large price rise the next day that would have wiped out my profits.

Shares rose by 0.8% over two days, for a +137% annual rate. The options position produced a 34.6% yield on debit for a +6,312% annual rate.


 

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 52 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 50%, which is four times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

BBY’s IV stands in the 90th percentile of its annual range and the 94th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

Read More »

Tuesday’s Agenda

Each of my five prospects have opened the day still qualifying for a full analysis and possibly a trade. They are BBY, LOW, CRM, MYL and TRCO.

I’ve also placed exit orders on GM and SU at my target price. Neither has yet been filled.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 28, 2017

 

Tuesday’s Prospects

I shall be looking at five potential earnings plays for action on Tuesday: BBY, CRM, LOW, MYL and TRCO.

A sixth symbol, CBI, is also sufficiently liquid with implied volatility high enough to meet my standards. However, it goes ex-dividend on March 16, leaving too short a window by my standards to attain profitability.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 27, 2017

 

Monday’s Outcomes

I entered three earnings plays: HTZ, IONS and TGT. I exited two positions, each for a loss: BMY and V. I shall update the exit trades analyses with results after the closing bell.

I analyzed two additional symbols for entry but passed on the trades: OKE and QVCA.

I am attempting to exit two positions — BP and GM — but have not yet gotten a fill. If the trades are completed, then I shall update Outcomes.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 27, 2017