OKE Analysis

ONEOK Inc. (OKE)

OKE publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 53 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 28%, which is 2.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

OKE’s IV stands in the 11th percentile of its annual range and the 46th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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IONS Analysis

Ionis Pharmaceuticals Inc.  (IONS)

Update 3/15/2017: IONS rose sharply for three days after earnings, then fell into an equally sharp decline for five days that brought the share price below its pre-earnings level.

I exited early, at 12.5% of maximum potential profit, to avoid time risk after prices settled at that lower level. Shares showed a net decline of 10.% over 16 days, or a -247% annual rate. The options position produced a 14.4% yield on debit for a +328% annual rate


 

IONS publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 53 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 68%, which is 5.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

IONS’s IV stands in the 34th percentile of its annual range and the 58th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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QVCA Analysis

QVC Group (QVCA)

QVCA publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 53 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 49%, which is 4.2 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

QVCA’s IV stands in the 73rd percentile of its annual range and the 72nd percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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HTZ Analysis

Hertz Global Holdings Inc. (HTZ)

Update 3/22/2017HTZ shares rose sharply after earnings were published stayed high until March 17 and then began to fall sharply, exceeding my target profit of 25% of maximum potential profit. I exited.

Shares showed a net declined of 2.7% over 23 days, or a 42% annual rate. The optons position produced a 49.8% yield on debit for a +790% annual rate.


 

HTZ publishes earnings on Monday after the closing bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 53 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 79%, which is 6.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

HTZ’s IV stands in the 91st percentile of its annual range and the 86th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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TGT Analysis

Target Corp. (TGT)

Update 4/22/2017: TGT gapped down sharply after earnings were published and then continued to decline at a less dramatic pace, moving deeper into unprofitable territory.

I was less nimble than I ought to have been for a position with some options deep in the money, and the short puts were assigned on March 20. I exited the shares the next day, and also sold the long puts, leaving a deep out of the money short call spread, which expired April 22, winding up the entire position.

Over the 54-day life of the position shares had a net decline of 17.9%, or a -121% annual rate. The options position produced a 4.2% loss on debit for a -28.4% annual rate


 

TGT publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 53 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 27%, which is 2.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

TGT’s IV stands in the 69th percentile of its annual range and the 79th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Monday’s Agenda

I had three prospective trades on my desk this morning: HTZ, QVCA and TGT, having rejected three other as being sufficiently liquid but with low implied volatility relative to their annual and most recent ranges.

What a difference a weekend makes!

Two of the rejects have seen their implied volatility rise to a level where they deserve a full analysis, and perhaps trades.

So in addition to the three, I’ll also be looking at IONS and OKE, for a total of five analyses.

I am attempting to exit BP at my target price but the order has yet to be filled.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 27, 2017

 

The Week Ahead: GDP, durables, trade and more. Bonus: Yellen

 

Gross domestic product for the final quarter of 2016 gets a second look on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Other major economic reports that hit the Street during the week: Durable goods orders on Monday at 8:30 a.m., international trade in goods on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., and on Wednesday, personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey at 10 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen discusses the economic outlook in an appearance before the Executive Club of Chicago on Friday at 1 p.m. New York time.

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Monday’s Prospects

I have three prospective earnings plays for action on Monday: HTZ, QVCA and TGT.

I am also looking at three addition symbols that are sufficiently liquid but have implied volatility that is too low to meet my standards: EOG, IONS and OKE. I shall check them on Monday and if IV rises, I’ll add them to the prospects list.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 25, 2017

 

Friday’s Outcomes

I entered no new positions on Friday.

I exited two position to avoid ex-dividend dates on Monday: LMT and MCD.

JWN also goes ex-dividend on Monday. It is a new position, having published earnings only yesterday after the closing bell, and I am taking the chance of holding on to it, since I don’t yet have a good idea of what it’s going to do post-earnings.

My order to exit GM at my target price has not yet been filled. I shall leave it active and update Outcomes it the fill occurs.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 24, 2017

 

Friday’s Agenda

As in not uncommon for a Friday, I have no prospects to analyze and perhaps trade into today.

I exited MCD to avoid assignment. The stock goes ex-dividend on Monday and my options position is significantly out of the money, a perfect setup for seeing short shares dumped into my account. I shall update the analysis with results before the closing bell.

I am attempting to exit GM at my target price, but it has not yet been filled.

By Tim Bovee, Portland,Oregon, Feb. 24, 2017