The Week Ahead: Jobs, manufacturing, trade

The number of employed Americans has risen compared to one year earlier every September since 2010. With the publication of the latest employment situation report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, we’ll learn how the numbers compared to the Sept. 2016 number of employed, which was 151,926, seasonally adjusted.

The jobs report gets a sneak preview with the release of the private-sector ADP employment report on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Additional major reports out during the week: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m. international trade on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. and factory orders on Thursday at 10 a.m.

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TLT Analysis

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Update 10/24/2017: Another roll forward for TLT with the strikes $1 lower, and the long-term government debt downtrend continues. I also moved the expiration date out a month, to Dec. 15, which is 50 days away from entry.

I exited my position of 10/4 for a $0.24 debit, or 50% of maximum potential profit, having entered for a $0.48 credit.

As I enter the 10/24 position, TLT’s IV stands in the 18th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement, although within a very narrow range that has held sway since July.

Premium: $0.50 Expire OTM
TLT-vertical Strike Odds Delta
Calls
Long 127.00 82.0% 16
Break-even 125.50
Short 125.00 66.0% 32

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JBL Analysis

Jabil Inc. (JBL)

JBL publishes earnings on Wednesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on Oct. 6.

Implied volatility stands at 36%, which is 3.7 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

JBL’s IV stands in the 79th percentile of its annual range and the 88th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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ACN Analysis

Accenture plc (ACN)

ACN publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on Oct. 6.

Implied volatility stands at 25%, which is 2.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

ACN’s IV stands in the 58th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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NKE Analysis

Nike Inc. (NKE)

NKE publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on Oct. 6.

Implied volatility stands at 31%, which is triple the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

NKE’s IV stands in the 80th percentile of its annual range and at the peak of its most recent broad movement.

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MU Analysis

Micron Technology Inc. (MU)

Update 9/27/2017: MU’s earnings beat the Street estimate of $1.97, coming in at $2.02. Shares rose in overnight trading but stayed within the profit zone, and I exited at 27.6% of maximum potential profit, beating my 25% goal.

Shares rose by 2.9% during my holding period, or a +1,054% annual rate. Tye options position produced a 38.1% return for a +13,905% annual rate.


MU publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on Oct. 6.

Implied volatility stands at 46%, which is 4.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

MU’s IV stands in the 42nd percentile of its annual range and the 28th percentile of its most recent broad movement. The recent movement range was constructruted by ignoring an outlier spike in late June, and instead using the prior trend high

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