UAA Analysis

Under Armour Inc. (UAA)

Update 2/5/2018: UAA fell steadily from the time I entered a bear call options spread. I exited at 28.1% of maximum potential profit, a bit better than my goal of 25%.

Shares declined by 5.4% over my five-day holding period, or a -391% annual rate. The options position produced a 39.1% return for a +2,857% annual rate.


I have entered a bear put vertical spread on UAA, using options that trade for the last time 16 days hence, on Feb. 16. The premium is a $0.32 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $14.11.

I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on a downtrend signal from the Fisher Transformer and a very negative earnings surprise predictor of -80% from Zacks.

UAA publishes earnings on Feb. 13 before the opening bell.

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Shares: TRP

TransCanada Corp. (TRP)

I have entered bull position using shares on TRP. The company published earnings on Feb. 15 before the opening bell.

TRP fell along with the broad market on Feb. 2, moving to a downtrend as measured by Fisher Transform. I exited based on the signal.

sym entry exit result (%) annualized (%) entry date exit date
TRP 46.20 44.44 -3.8% -695% 1/31 2/2

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 31, 2018

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Shares: TLND

Talend S.A. (TLND)

I have entered a shares position on TLND, which publishes earnings on Feb. 18 after the closing bell. It is a down day on the S&P 500 and other blue chip index, and while my prospective share trades continued to show uptrends on the daily chart, on the more sensitive 8-hour chart only TLND continued to be uptrending.

TLND fell along with the broad market on Feb. 2, moving to a downtrend as measured by Fisher Transform. I exited based on the signal.

sym entry exit result (%) annualized (%) entry date exit date
TLND 37.97 37.84 0.3% -42% 1/30 2/2

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 30, 2018

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Binary: EUR/USD

I have entered a binary bear play on EUR/USD, selling a contract at 1.2325 for $59.50 in hopes of a $100 return on expiration, Friday, Feb. 2 at 3 p.m. New York time.

The Fisher Transform trend turned down on Jan. 26. At entry the market stood at 1.23785 and the Fisher stood at 2.8589.

EUR/USD moved sideways during a four-day downtrend signal on the Fisher Transformer. I exited when the Fisher signaled an uptrend.

sym entry exit result (%) annualized (%) entry date exit date
EUR/USD 59.50 -96,25 -3.2% -4,645% 1/29 2/1

(See a brief discussion just posted to the Live feed on my strategy as I re-add binary options to the mix.)

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 29, 2018

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Shares: UFS

Domtar Corp. (UFS)

I have entered a shares position on UFS. Earnings will be published on Feb. 8 before the opening bell, and it is my goal to exit the position prior to the announcement.

In a day of downward reversals, UFS received a downtrend signal from the Fisher Transformer. I exited on Feb. 1 for a loss.

sym entry exit result (%) annualized (%) entry date exit date
UFS 52.19 50.66 -2.90% 357% 1/29 2/1

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 28-29, 2018

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The Week Ahead: FOMC, jobs, income, outlays, and much, much more

The week begins with am economic policy whimper by the Federal Open Market Committee, probably, and ends with the most politically fraught of all the economic reports, employment,

The FOMC meets for two days, culminating on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time with an announcement of any changes to the Federal Funds rate. Since they raised the rate at the last meeting, no change is the likely outcome. The tick-tock on the state of the economy, however, is always fascinating.

The employment situation report will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m., and as usual will be preceded by a sneak preview, the non-governmental ADP employment report, on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Two other reports of interest are scheduled for publication, personal income and outlays on Monday at 8:30 a.m. and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Thursday at 10 a.m.

Also, look for a grand potpourri of reports that go into the index of leading indicators.

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