3/19 – 3:15 p.m. New York time
I entered no new positions and exited one, MLNX.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets for two days beginning Tuesday, culminating with an announcement and fresh forecasts on Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time and a news conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m.
The FOMC last raised the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.25-1.50% on Dec. 14, 2017. A year ago the committee raised rates in March 2017 following a December 2016 increase. Based on that history an increase seems more likely than not, and also totally unsurprising and well priced into the markets already.
Otherwise, the week’s focus is on real estate, with existing home sales out on Wednesday at 10 a.m. and new home sales on Friday at 10 a.m. Also hitting the Street during the week, durable goods orders on Friday at 8:30 a.m.
3/19/2018: MLNX reversed with a downtrend signal from the Fisher Transform and I exited for a loss.
The shares position produced a 2.2% loss over three days for a -272% annual rate.
I have entered a long shares position on MLNX. The stock at the time of entry was priced at $73.95.
I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on expectations for a positive earnings surprise, and longer-term bull rating from Zacks, a Fisher Transform uptrend signal on the daily chart and a bullish Elliott wave count.
The position is contrary to the trend of the equities markets as a whole, which are bearish according to the Elliott wave count.
MLNX publishes earnings on April 25 after the closing bell.
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By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 16, 2018
I have entered a short vertical spread on DVN, using options that trade for the last time 35 days hence, on April 20. The premium is a $0.57 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $32.12.
I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on implied analyst expectations of a negative earnings surprise, a downtrend in the stock price within the context of a bearish market..
DVN publishes earnings on May 1 after the closing bell.
3/15 – 3:05 p.m. New York time
I entered no new positions today and exited none.
I have entered a short vertical spread on X, using options that trade for the last time 65 days hence, on May 18. The premium is a $0.78 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $39.24.
I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on expectations of a negative earnings surprise as reported by Zacks, a downtrend signal on the Fisher Transformer and a bearish Elliott wave analysis. My view of the markets is that they have been in a significant downtrend since the Jan. 26 peak, and so I chose to trade a symbol with bearish metrics.
X publishes earnings on April 24 after the closing bell.
3/13 – 3:50 p.m. New York time
I entered no new positions and exited none.
3/12 – 3:10 p.m. New York time
No trades today.
3/12 – 11:45 a.m. New York time
No trades in sight this morning.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 12, 2018