The Week Ahead: Jobs, trade, Fed glitterati

Jobs week has rolled around again, with the employment situation report out Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time and the private-sector sneak preview of the jobs sitch, the ADP employment report, on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

International trade stats will be published on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Adding spice to the week: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell addresses the Economic Club of Chicago on Friday at 1:30 p.m. His topic will be the economic outlook, an oldy but goody for Fed officials.

Another of the central bank’s glitterati, Fed Gov. Lael Brainard, will discuss financial stability at New York University’s Stern School of Business on Tuesday at 4:30 p.m.

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Live: Thursday, March 29, 2018

Today culminates a short week with a short day. U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for a Christian holiday, and they will end the regular trading session today at 2 p.m. New York time, two hours early.

I have exited GLD for a profit, although below my 50% target. The chart has grown less bearish and I took the opportunity to take my gains off the table. I shall update the analysis with results later this morning.

I have no other exits in sight, and plan no new positions today. So this post will wrap up my trading for the week.

Look for The Week Ahead sometime Saturday.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 29, 2018

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SPY Analysis


Update 4/30/2018: I exited SPY as it continued an uptrending counter-trend correction. The decision was based on Elliott wave analysis and the timing on the Fisher Transform metric.

By my count SPY continued to trace out a 4th wave to the upside at the Minuette degree. It has completed requirements for an A-wave to the upside at the Sub-minuette degree, but without guarantees that the A-wave is indeed complete.

With 18 days left until expiration of the position, I chose to exit for a $5.70 debit with shares at $265.75 and shall re-enter a bear position at an appropriate moment with a later expiration.

Shares rose by 1.9% over 33 days, or a +22% annual rate. The options position produced a -24.0% loss for a -265% annual rate.

I have entered a short vertical spread on SPY, using options that trade for the last time 51 days hence, on May 18. The premium is a $4.33 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $260.57.

I made the decision to enter the trade in my account based on Elliott wave analysis. At the level I trade, the Minuette, I count SPY as tracing a 3rd wave down within a higher 1st wave down, and one level down within the Minuette, a 3rd wave down.

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Live: Tuesday, March 27, 2018

3/27 – 3:15 p.m. New York time

I feel as though I am floating in the doldrums. But that’s what happens when a broad reversal in trend occurs, as happened after the Jan. 26 peak. It takes awhile to gain clarity, and as a result, I’m being extra cautious in how I trade.

A quick discussion of my holdings:

GLD reversed 12 cents below the Feb. 16 high of $128.70. A break above would have cast my bearish position in doubt.

IWM has resumed its decline and now stands at 28.2% of its maximum potential profit. My goal is to manage the position at 50% or higher.

DVN is holding in a sideways corrective trend, and I expect it to resume its movement to the downside. Timing, as always, is the great unknown.

It is a short week, with the markets closed on Friday for a Christian holiday, and such weeks generally have a dampening effect on market activity. So I don’t expect the doldrums to be replaced by strong trade winds during the next few days. Nonetheless, my sails are ready for hoisting once those winds develop.

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The Week Ahead: GDP, trade, income and a holiday


U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for a Christian religious holiday, and will close on Thursday at 2 p.m. New York time. Markets will also be closed Friday in London and Sydney, but will be open in Tokyo.

A third and final estimate of the 4th quarter gross domestic product and GDP for all of 2017 will be published on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

Two other major reports will be released during the week: International trade  in goods, also on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., and personal income and outlays, on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Fed Vice Chairman Randal Quarles will address the Operation HOPE Global Forums in Atlanta on Monday at 7:10 p.m. His subject: “The Roles of Consumer Protection and Small Business Access to Credit in Financial Inclusion”.

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Live: Friday, March 23, 2018

3/23 – 3:25 p.m. New York time

My bear position on X reached its management point, 50% of maximum potential profit, and I exited. Results to come soon. I shall consider the question of re-entry on Monday.

No other trades today, so this wraps up the week.

3/23 – 10:45 a.m. New York time

All of my holdings are solidly in line with my bearish assessment except for GLD, which gapped to the upside yesterday. The price remains below the high of Jan. 26, which marked the start of the present decline, and so I am inclined to hold the position and see what develops over time.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 23, 2018

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