Live: Monday, July 23, 2018

11:30 a.m. New York time

I have spoken of the difficulty, the ambiguities, that challenge the practice of Elliott wave analysis. We are now in such a time on SPY. When facing such challenges, my practice is to dive deeply into the smaller reaches of the chart.

The SPY chart below covers 15 days with 10-minute bars.



I have been counting the July 18 high as the probable completion of wave C of the Minuette degree, which has been underway since July 3, and even more significantly, of wave 2 of the Minute degree {+1}, an event that would set up a significant 3rd wave decline.

To resolve the ambiguities, I counted down to the Submicro {-3} degree. The result leads me to believe that the July 18 high was the end of the 3rds wave at the Micro degree {-2}, with the present decline being a 4th wave Micro correction, to be followed by a push above the July 18 high to complete the C wave of Minuette degree.

Now, under this count, the vertical distance and horizontal time covered by the earlier portions of wave C are small compared to the later waves within C, and that’s a bit troubling, although not unheard of.

On the other hand, if wave C were complete, then what follows would be a 1st wave to the downside within a 3rd wave resumption of the major trend. The insipid decline we’ve seen since July 18 looks far more like a 4th wave correction than a 1st wave, which argues in favor of the count I’ve presented here.

Time, as always, will put all ambiguities to rest.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 23, 2018

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.


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