DAL Analysis

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)

Update July 13, 2017: DAL moved little after earnings were published. The profit largely came from a decline in implied volatility. I exited at 24.9% of maximum potential profit.

Shares rose by 0.7% over one day, or a +256% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.1% yield on debit for a +12,081% annual rate.


DAL publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 31%, which is triple the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

DAL’s IV stands in the 31st percentile of its annual range and the peek of its most recent broad movement.

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DAL Analysis

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)

Update 4/27/2017DAL did a fair imitation of a yo-yo after earnings were published, rising sharply from where it began the today and then falling to near its starting point, falling further the next day and then rising to slightly beyond the post-earnings peak, and then declined again to near where the fluctuations began.

All in all, a lot of Sturm und Drang, signifying nothing. I exited at 33% of maximum potential profit.

Shares staged a net decline of 0.8% over 16 days, or a +18% annual rate. The options position produced a 49.1% yield on debit for a +1,121% annual rate.


DAL publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the MAY series of options, which trades for the last time 38 days hence, on May 19.

Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is 2.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

DAL’s IV stands in the 27th percentile of its annual range and the 96th percentile of its most recent broad movement, which is in a fairly narrow range typical of DAL for the past two months.

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The Week Ahead: Short week, global trade, Beige Book, Fedsters swarm

A shortened week after a major holiday which is also the week after the employment report. Econ reporting doesn’t get much more inactive than that.

U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. The other global hubs — London, Tokyo and Sydney — will be open as usual.

One major report is scheduled for the week: International trade on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

And as though to make up for the reporting doldrums, the Federal Reserve releases its “Beige Book”, a description of economic conditions in each of the agency’s districts, on Wednesday at 2 p.m., while aswarm of the Fed glitterati provide commentary on  the state of the nation.

 

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The Week Ahead: Durables, homes, Jackson Hole

Three major reports punctuate the trading week: Durable goods orders on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, and earlier in the week, two real-estate reports: Existing home sales on Thursday and new home sales on Wednesday, each at 10 a.m.

But the spotlights and trumpets and drum rolls and other markers of drama will be focused on  Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where the annual Economic Policy Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank open on Thursday at 8 p.m. (all times for the symposium are listed as New York time; the local time in Jackson Hole is two hours earlier).

Fed Chair Janet Yellen addresses the forum on Friday at 10 a.m. European Central Bank Chairman Mario Draghi will also speak to the symposium, also on Friday,  at 3 p.m.

The conference will continue through Saturday.

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The Week Ahead: Retail, housing, industry

Retail sales on Tuesday and housing starts on Wednesday, each published at 8:30 a.m. New York time, and industrial production on Thursday at 9:15 a.m. provide the new economic data through which the markets will swim during the week.

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the July 26 meeting, which which the committee voted without dissent to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, will be released on Wednesday at 2 p.m.

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The Week Ahead: Prices

It’s inflation week in economic reporting, or deflation week, or some sort of ‘flation — no one can really figure it out at this point, as the Fed raises rates to calm nearly non-existent inflation while a non-existent deflation continues to threaten the economy. Fake ‘flation, anyone?

The producer price index final demand will be published on Thursday, to followed on Friday by the consumer price index, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time. And that is pretty much the high point of the week.

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The Week Ahead: Prices, sales, production, Yellen on the Hill

 

Prices move to the center of economic reporting this week, the consumer price index on Friday and the producer price index on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Two other major reports punctuate the week, both on Friday: Retail sales at 8:30 a.m. and industrial production at 9:15 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen testifies twice on Capitol Hill about monetary policy, On Wednesday before the House Committee on Financial services and on Thursday before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs. Each hearing begins at 10 a.m.

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