DAL Analysis

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)

Update 10/19/2017: DAL hit the consensus earnings forecast almost on the mark, coming in at $1.57 per share. The price closed the session immediately after earnings were announced up $0.37, within the central tendency and the average of the the past year’s post-earns moves.

I opted for a directional, bearish trade, which means the position lasted longer than with my direction-neutral plays. The price the next day out moved contrary to my position, rising about a dollar, and then began a four-day decline that brought the position near my profit goal. I exited a 49.1% of maximum potential profit.

Zacks had scored DAL as very bearish, with no earnings surprise expected. The surprise part turned out to be correct. And in Elliott wave terms the post-earns trend has been bearish, since the downward turn occurred below the prior peak of $55.75.

Shares declined by 3.3% over nine days, or a -135% annual rate. The options position produced a +97% return for a +3,916% annual rate.


DAL publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I  shall use options that trade for the last time 39 days hence, on Nov. 17. I’m going further out than is my usual practice on earnings plays because I have concluded that a bearish directional position best suits DAL’s prospects.

Implied volatility stands at 29%, which is 2.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

DAL’s IV stands in the 32nd percentile of its annual range and the 71st percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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DAL Analysis

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)

Update July 13, 2017: DAL moved little after earnings were published. The profit largely came from a decline in implied volatility. I exited at 24.9% of maximum potential profit.

Shares rose by 0.7% over one day, or a +256% annual rate. The options position produced a 33.1% yield on debit for a +12,081% annual rate.


DAL publishes earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on July 21.

Implied volatility stands at 31%, which is triple the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

DAL’s IV stands in the 31st percentile of its annual range and the peek of its most recent broad movement.

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DAL Analysis

Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)

Update 4/27/2017DAL did a fair imitation of a yo-yo after earnings were published, rising sharply from where it began the today and then falling to near its starting point, falling further the next day and then rising to slightly beyond the post-earnings peak, and then declined again to near where the fluctuations began.

All in all, a lot of Sturm und Drang, signifying nothing. I exited at 33% of maximum potential profit.

Shares staged a net decline of 0.8% over 16 days, or a +18% annual rate. The options position produced a 49.1% yield on debit for a +1,121% annual rate.


DAL publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use the MAY series of options, which trades for the last time 38 days hence, on May 19.

Implied volatility stands at 32%, which is 2.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

DAL’s IV stands in the 27th percentile of its annual range and the 96th percentile of its most recent broad movement, which is in a fairly narrow range typical of DAL for the past two months.

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The Week Ahead: A semi-holiday, prices, retail, Yellen

Monday is a federal holiday, Columbus Day, in the United States, but not a stock market holiday. Although the federal government, banks and the bond market will be closed, the stock exchanges and equity futures markets will be open for business as usual.

Two price reports lead the week in economics data, the consumer price index on Friday and the producer price index final demand index on Thursday, each at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

The retail sales report will be published on Friday, also at 8:30 a.m.

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the meeting on Sept. 19-20 will be made public on Wednesday at 2 p.m. At that meeting the committee voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, at 1% to 1.25%, and to begin unwinding its holdings obtained to stave off economic collapse during the Great Recession of 2007-2008, a process none as “balance sheet normalization”.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on Sunday, Oct. 15, at 9 a.m. to the G30 International Banking Seminar in Washington.

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The Week Ahead: Jobs, manufacturing, trade

The number of employed Americans has risen compared to one year earlier every September since 2010. With the publication of the latest employment situation report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. New York time, we’ll learn how the numbers compared to the Sept. 2016 number of employed, which was 151,926, seasonally adjusted.

The jobs report gets a sneak preview with the release of the private-sector ADP employment report on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

Additional major reports out during the week: The Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey on Monday at 10 a.m. international trade on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. and factory orders on Thursday at 10 a.m.

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The Week Ahead: Short week, global trade, Beige Book, Fedsters swarm

A shortened week after a major holiday which is also the week after the employment report. Econ reporting doesn’t get much more inactive than that.

U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. The other global hubs — London, Tokyo and Sydney — will be open as usual.

One major report is scheduled for the week: International trade on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

And as though to make up for the reporting doldrums, the Federal Reserve releases its “Beige Book”, a description of economic conditions in each of the agency’s districts, on Wednesday at 2 p.m., while aswarm of the Fed glitterati provide commentary on  the state of the nation.

 

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