Seagate Technology plc (STX)

Update 8/4/2017: STX fell by $10 immediately after earnings were published and then reclaimed about $4 of the decline before settling into a sideways trend for the rest of my holding period . I exited for a loss at a $6.25 premium with shares at $33.53 as expiration approached.

The losing short puts breakeven strike that defined the losing side of the trade showed a 71% chance of expiring out of the money at entry. Those odds declined to 4% at exit, above two standard deviations.

Shares declined by a net 15.8% over my 11-day holding period, or a -525% annual rate. The options position produced a -47.7% loss on debit for a -1,5825 annual rate.

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STX publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 19 days later, on Aug.11.

Implied volatility stands at 47%, which is 4.8 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

STX’s IV stands in the 82nd percentile of its annual range and the peak of its most recent broad movement.

The price used for analysis was $39.81.

Premium:	$3.27	Expire OTM
STX-iron fly	Strike	Odds	Delta
Long	47.00	93.4%	8
Break-even	87.00
Short	40.00	55.1%	50
Puts
Short	40.00	45.3	50
Break-even	36.27
Long	33.00	89.8%	8

The premium is 47% of the width of the position’s wings.

The risk/reward ratio is 1.1:1.

Decision for My Account

I have entered an order on STX as described above. The stock at the time of entry was priced at $39.83.

By Tim Bovee, Fukuoka, Japan, July 24, 2017

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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