3:50 p.m. New York time
As it turns out the alternative count is correct. The S&P 500 index is in Micro wave C of Subminuette wave 4.
11:20 a.m. New York time
I’ve updated SPY Analysis with results.
10:25 a.m. New York time
I’ve exited my short iron condor position on SPY for 14.8% of maximum potential profit and shall update the entry analysis with the exit info later today.
9:05 a.m. New York time
What’s happening now? The final push to the downside by the S&P 500 index, now underway, will complete the decline that began September 16, approaching the lower boundary of the price channel at around 3100.
What does it mean? The end of the decline will be the starting point of an upward correction that will carry the price toward the upper boundary of the price channel, which is presently around 3278.
What is the alternative? Another interpretation of the chart has the upward correction that began September 21 continuing, with the final push to the downside not yet having begun.
What does Elliott wave theory say? By my principle count, wave 5 of Subminuette degree began on September 23 from 3323.25. The 1st wave of Micro degree within Subminuette 5 perhaps ended September 24 at 3209.45, or perhaps is continuing. There are ambiguities.
By my alternative count, the September 23 high was the end of wave A of Micro degree within Subminuette wave 4, and the low of September 24 was the end of Micro B, the the Micro C wave now underway.
My trading strategy. My short iron condor position on SPY is 21 day before expiration, the day I manage profitable trades. My SPY position is profitable, at 14.8% of maximum potential profit. If my principle count is correct, then I should exit now. Any further decline will erode that profit. If my alternative count is correct, then I should hold on to the position in the expectation of further rise, which will bump up my profit by a bit. I’ll make a decision as the day progresses.
I continue to hold my SDS shares.Read More »