Live: Friday, November 24, 2017

11/24 – 7:55 a.m. New York tme

None of the potential prospects has improved enough for trading, and I exited my shorter-term holdings on Wednesday, so there’s nothing on the agenda today.

The potentials, all earnings plays using shares, fail on their Zacks metrics: TECD, THO and POETF on the earnings surprise predictor. CNTE and ROYT have an ambiguity about when they’re publishing earnings, as well as having earnings surprise predictors that don’t support my strategy.

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DE Analysis

Deere & Co. (DE)

Update 11/22/2017: DE reported earnings of $1.57 per share, beating the consensus estimate of $1.43, with the stock opening $6.30 above the prior day’s close. I exited at 71.0% of maximum potential profit.

The Zacks algorithm anticipated a positive earnings surprise, with an earnings surprise predictor score of 1.32 in the context of a bullish (2) score.

Prior to the announcement the ADX marked an uptrend, at 36.96, with the +DI at 39.13 and the -DI at 12.79 for a ratio of 3.06.

DE closed the first trading session after earnings were published up $6.02 from the pre-earns closed, within the four-quarter maximum span of $10.16, the average of $6.54 and the central tendency of $7.45, irrespective of direction.

Shares rose by 3.1% ove rmy holding perio dof less than a day, or a +1,128% annual rate. Tye options position produced a +245.2% return for a +89,4845 annual rate.


DE publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 24 days hence, on Dec. 15.

Implied volatility stands at 30%, which is triple the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

DE’s IV stands in the 64th percentile of its annual range and the 85th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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CRM Analysis

Salesforce.com inc. (CRM)

Update 11/22/2017: CRM reported earnings of $0.39 per share, beating the Street estimate by 2 cents. The price fell by $1.95 at the opening, well within the profit zone, I exited at 39.9% of maximum potential profit.

Zacks had anticipated a slight chance of an undershoot, giving CRM an earnings surprise predictor score of -0.37 in the context of neutral longer-term expectations for the stock.

Going into earnings CRM showed an upward trend, with the ADX at 52.93,  with the +DI at 32.2 and the -DI at 4.7 for a DI ratio of 6.85.

CRM closed the first trading session after earnings were published down $1.97 from the pre-earns close, a span well within the four-quarter maximum movement of $15.64, the average of $5.26 and the central tendency of $2.52, irrespective of direction.

Shares declined by 1.7% during my holding period of less than a day, or a +628% annual rate. The options position produced a 63.6% return for a +23,206% annual rate


CRM publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 10 days hence, on Dec. 1.

Implied volatility stands at 33%, which is 3.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

CRM’s IV stands in the 64th percentile of its annual range and at the pak of its most recent broad movement.

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LOW Analysis

Lowe’s Companies Inc. (LOW)

LOW publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on Dec. 1.

Implied volatility stands at 27%, which is 2.5 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

LOW’s IV stands in the 64th percentile of its annual range and the 76th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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DLTR Analysis

Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR)

DLTR publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.

I shall use options that trade for the last time 11 days hence, on Dec. 1.

Implied volatility stands at 35%, which is 3.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

DLTR’s IV stands in the 59th percentile of its annual range and the 86th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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The Week Ahead: Holiday, homes and big-ticket items

 

U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. The U.K., Japan and Australia will be open as usual.

Two major reports are scheduled during the week, existing home sales on Tuesday at 10 a.m. New York time and durable goods orders on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

The Federal Open Market Committee minutes of the Nov. 1 meeting will be published on Wednesday at 2 p.m. The committee maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will participate in a panel discussion at the New York University Stern School fo Business, on Tuesday beginning at 6 p.m. The event will be streamed live here.
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