What’s happening now? Bitcoin futures fell to new lows following a near-term peak of 41,335 on June 15.
What does it mean? The decline is a final wave in a downtrend that began on April 14, when Bitcoin set a high of 65,520. It will be followed by an upward correction that will take back much of the decline since mid-April but will fall short of that all-time.
What’s the alternative? If the price moves above 65,520, then the decline that began April 14 was a correction within an ongoing uptrend.
[Bitcoin futures at 1:16 p.m., 4-hour bars]
What does Elliott wave theory say? By my principle count, the downtrend that began April 14 is wave 5 of Submicro degree with wave 1 of Micro degree, the beginning of a downtrend involving many larger degrees. Submicro 5 is the last waver in Micro 1, which will be followed by an upward correction, wave 2 of Micro degree, which will likely take the form of a Zigzag and will recover a large portion of the decline from April 14. Micro 2 will in turn be followed by an energetic 3rd wave decline.
By the alternative count, the decline from April 14 is a downward correction, perhaps wave 4 of Subminuette degree, within a rising wave 5 of Minuette degree.
Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 22, 2021
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continued its rise, reaching 4241.75, a level less than points below the June 14 peak of 4258.25. As noted in this morning’s alternative analysis, if that level is breached, then the decline since June 14 has been a correction within an ongoing rise, which dates back to February of last year. Chart updated.
9:35 a.m. New York time
What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued their rise overnight and in the past few days has taken back around three-fourths of the decline from June 14 to June 20.
What does it mean? The movement is an upward correction of the mid-June decline. By my principle count, the rise is the first leg of the correction, and will be followed by a downward move within the correction, and then a final push to the upside.
What’s the alternative? If the price rises above the June 14 peak, 4258.25, then the mid-June decline was a downward correction of an ongoing uptrend, the the subsequent rise — still underway — was either a resumption of the larger uptrend or a countertrend movement within the downward correction.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume]
What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise overnight, wave A of Submicro degree, approached the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level but has stayed below it. Under my principle analysis Submicro wave B will carry the price down while remaining above 4126.75, the starting point of wave A. The B wave will be followed by a C wave to the upside, which most likely will end above the end of wave A. The A wave is still underway, so there’s no way to put a number to its end point.
Under the alternative analysis, the low of June 20 ended a downward correction, and the subsequent rise is the first wave of a resumption of wave 5 of Micro degree, the larger uptrend.
Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 22, 2021
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continues its rise during the trading day, reaching just above a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from June 14 to June 20. This morning’s pause at the 38.2% retracement level was so slight that I’m reluctant to call it the end of wave A and the start of wave B of the Submicro degree. It just doesn’t fit the rule of proportionality in Elliott wave theory. So I’ve counted the full rise so far as wave A, and I anticipate that it will be followed by a wave B decline and then a final push up as wave C.
9:40 a.m. New York time
What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a low of 4126.75 in overnight trading and then reversed to the upside, retracing 38% of the decline that began June 14.
What does it mean? The reversal marks the completion of the first leg in what will develop into a significant downtrend, and the upward move overnight is a small correction within that downtrend.
What’s the alternative? My principle analysis counts the high of June 14 as the end of an uptrend that began on February 28, 2020. It’s possible that the uptrend is still ongoing, and the proof of that would be the price continuing to rise from its present level, exceeding the mid-June peak of 4258.25.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume]
What does Elliott wave theory say? The overnight rise paused at a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level as it takes back part of the decline that began on June 14, which is wave 1 of Submicro degree within wave 1 of Micro degree, the early stages of a downtrend stretching all the up to Minute degree. The entire downtrend is occurring within wave A of Minute degree within wave 4 of Minor degree.
The overnight rise is wave 2 of Submicro degree within wave 1 of Micro degree. In my experience 2nd waves tend to take the form of a Zigzag, a markedly directional three-wave structure. The pause at the 38.2% Fibonacci level may mark the end of wave A of Submicro degree, although not necessarily. The next move in a Zigzag is a decline that stays above the beginning of wave A, which is 4126.75 in this case, and then a wave C reversal to high highs. The 61.8% Fibonacci level (4208.02) would be a not uncommon end point for wave C, but it could very well go higher, or run out of steam before reaching that level, perhaps at the 50% fibonacci level (4192.50).
Under the alternative analysis, wave 5 of Micro degree didn’t end on June 14 and still underway, with the decline from that date being an A wave within a downward correction. One aspect of the chart that makes this conceivable is the weakness of the Micro wave 5 rise from June 3 to the June 14 peak. It counts as a 5th wave completion, but it doesn’t feel that way, intuitively.
Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 21, 2021
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continued to work its way lower, down to 4161 so far today on the futures. No change in the analysis. I’ve updated the short-term chart. I’ve also updated the long-term chart, adding in the upper and lower boundaries of wave 4 of Minute degree, the target range for for the Minor wave 4 correction that began on June 14.
10:30 a.m. New York time
Added. I’ve added a longer-term chart to the Elliott wave analysis section below.
10:20 a.m. New York time
What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell in overnight trading and past the opening bell, reaching as low so far as 4170.50.
What does it mean? I had said in an earlier analysis that a decline below 4180.25, the low on June 3 that marked the beginning of an upward push, would make it less likely that the decline from the June 14 peak is a correction within an ongoing uptrend. My revised principle analysis labels the June 14 peak of 4258.25 as the end of the rise that began May 13 and the beginning of a new downtrend.
What’s the alternative? It’s possible that the uptrend that began May 13 is still underway, although at this point I’m uncertain how it could be counted. If the price rises back above the June 14 peak, then this alternative will become the principle analysis.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]
What does Elliott wave theory say? Under my principle analysis, the June 14 peak, ending wave 5 of Micro degree, is also the end of a series of 5th waves of greater degree, up three levels to wave 5 of Minute degree, which in turn marks the end of wave 3 of Minor degree, which began on February 23, 2020 — the end of the crash that marked the beginning of the pandemic.
I’ve redrawn the price channel for wave 5 of Subminuette degree. It shows the final internal wave, the 5th of Micro degree, failing to come close to the upper boundary of the channel. It’s not a truncated wave, since it moved beyond the peak of wave 3, but it’s not typical of 5th waves that I’ve seen.
With wave 3 of Minor degree having reached an end, the next move will be a large-degree 4th wave correction. Fourth waves tend to be on the shallow side, taking the form of a Flat, although not always, and often will extend in compound patterns, linking several corrective forms together, although not always. A 4th wave never moves beyond the end of the preceding wave 1, which is 2191.86 on the index. So that’s an absolute floor on the coming decline, and I expect it to end well above that level. A 4th wave will often end within the range of subwave 4 of the preceding 3rd wave, which would be between 3588 and 3209 on the index, a range set by wave 4 of Minute degree last October.
[S&P 500 index at 3:25 p.m., daily bars]
Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 18, 2021
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Juneteenth. U.S. markets will be open on Friday, the new Juneteenth holiday.
3:30 p.m. New York time
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continued to trade above its overnight low while remaining below yesterday’s high, which marked the start of a steep decline coinciding with release of the Federal Open Market Committee statement and FOMC member forecasts.
The news-driven fall proved to be short lived, as the futures bounced back to a high so far of 4221.75.
No change to the analysis. I’ve updated the chart.
9:40 a.m. New York time
What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued their decline overnight, coming close to the lower price-channel boundary of the rise that began on March 4.
What does it mean? Under my principle analysis, I expect the price to reverse shortly (or perhaps it already has reversed) and reach new highs as the uptrend that began on May 19 continues, with a near-term upside target around the 4270s and a longer-term target in the low 4400s.
What’s the alternative? If the June 14 high proves to have been the end of the uptrend that began March 4, falling short of the upper boundary of the price channel. then a correction is already under way. When it complete, the rise will resume toward the longer-term target.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 2-hours bars, with volume]
What does Elliott wave theory say? By my principle analysis, the decline that began yesterday is a corrective subwave within rising wave 3 of Submicro degree. Under my alternative analysis, the June 14 peak was the end of Submicro 3 and Submicro wave 4 has begun. A decline below the June 3 low — the beginning of Submicro wave 3 — would buttress the case for the alternative analysis.
Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 17, 2021
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
After the FOMC announcement. The S&P 500 dropped sharply immediately after the FOMC monetary policy announcement. The decline is in line with my principle analysis from this morning, that the wave 3 of Micro degree uptrend is still in progress, and the sharp decline is a correction of smaller degree within that uptrend.
Looking at the internals of Micro wave 3, I interpret the decline to be part of the rise rather than an end to Submicro wave 3 is because of a strict rule of Elliott wave analysis: A 3rd wave cannot be the shorter than both waves 1 and 5 within the same trend. If the June 14 peak were indeed the end of wave 3, then the 3rd wave would be 78 points long and the 1st wave would be 149 points long. That’s a large difference. It would be fine if wave 5 were to be shorter than 78 degrees, but my working assumption is that wave 3 will be longer than both waves 1 and 5, and for now I’ll stick to that assumption.
It is entirely possible that subsequent price moves will prove that assumption false, requiring a change in my analysis.
I’ve updated the chart below.
9:55 a.m. New York time
What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued its small uptrending pattern in overnight trading, remaining below the peak of 4258.25 set on June 14.
What does it mean? For my principle analysis I’m treating the peak as a pause on a continuing rise, with a target in the 4270s for the rise from May 19 and in the 4400s for the larger rise that began on March 4. The end of the larger rise will mark the beginning of a significant decline.
What’s the alternative? It’s possible to see 4258.25 as the end of the rise that began on May 19 and the subsequent trading below the peak as the first steps in shallow correction.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 2:45 p.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]
What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise that began on May 19, from 4055.50, is wave 3 of Micro degree. I’ve set the target completion at a Fibonacci level 161.8% above the beginning of the preceding wave 1 of Micro degree (dark horizontal line on the chart). Within Micro wave 3, I count the present wave as being either wave 5 of Submicro degree (the principle analysis), or wave 4 of Submicro degree (the alternative analysis).
Micro 5 is part of wave 5 of Subminuette degree, which began on May 13 from from 4029.25. I’ve used a price channel for the parent wave, 5 of Minuette degree, which began on March 4 from 3720.50 (parallel red lines). The target in a rising price channel depends upon how long it takes for the price to reach the upper boundary. By June 20, the upper boundary, and therefore the target, will be at 4400, which 165 points above the present level.
Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 16, 2021
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continued a small decline, while remaining above the prior low. Higher highs, combined with higher low, mean that an uptrend is continuing, and that has been the pattern since the June 10 decline. No change in the analysis. Here’s an updated chart with simplified analytics.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]
10:05 a.m. New York time
What’s happening now? In overnight trading, the S&P 500 E-mini futures dropped off slightly in from yesterday’s high of 4238.25.
What does it mean? The pattern is a replay of what we’ve seen time and time again in the shallow coasting that began in mid-April. That the price has been in an uptrend since May 13 is clear. That the price is clearly in the third leg of its upward journey is also clear. What’s unclear is how high can it can go. I discuss the question in the Elliott wave theory section, below.
What’s the alternatives? So, two alternatives, equally likely: 1) Yesterday’s high is a pause in an ongoing rise that will reach new heights. 2) Yesterday’s high is the end of the rise and the drop-off is an early stage of a correction.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 10:03 a.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]
What does Elliott wave theory say? Under the continuing rise scenario the present rise is wave 3 of Micro degree within wave 5 of Subminuette degree. The question is, when does MIcro wave 3 reach its peak? And more important, when does its parent, Subminuette wave 5, reach its peak? For the end of Subminuette 5 will trigger a substantial downturn reaching all the way up to Minute degree, which is presently in its 5th wave.
I’ll tackle the Micro wave 3 problem first. Internally, Micro 3 is in its 5th wave of Submicro degree. (I haven’t marked the internal count on the chart, leaving it as an exercise for the reader.) Fifth waves, however, can cover quite a lot of ground, and so the internal count does little to set an upper limit. The take-away here is that the count gives greater weight to the continuing rise analysis.
Often, a 3rd wave will have a Fibonacci retracement relation to the preceding 1st wave. (Read about Fibonacci retracements here.) I’ve placed a Fibonacci retracement ladder on the chart. At yesterday’s high of 4258.25, the price is approaching a 161.8% retracement of the ground covered by the 1st wave of Micro degree. That Fibonacci level is 4272.35, and that can stand as a reasonable end-point target for the 3rd wave of MIcro degree. Fibonacci retracements are never exact, and the prices don’t always turn at Fibonacci levels. However, if the price is does turn at the next major Fibonacci level, it will be around 4272 plus/minus a bit.
To find target for the parent, wave 5 Subminuette degree, let’s turn to the parallel gray lines on the chart. They’ve appeared in my charts for several days running, in red, and they are a price channel for wave 5 of MInuette degree, which began on March 4 from 3720.50. Under the patterns used in Elliott wave theory, wave 5 of Subminuette degree ought to end around the upper boundary of the price channel. Sometimes such rises fall short of the boundary, and sometimes they overshoot it. Nonetheless, the price channel is almost always a point that has impact on the price direction.
The price channel is uptrending, and we don’t know how long it will take the price to reach the boundary, so it’s impossible to say for sure just how high Subminuette 5 will go. But there are some indications. The preceeding Subminuette 3 took a month and half to run its course, and 3rd waves tend to be the longest part of a rise. Subminuette 5 so far has been in progress for a month and two days. So if it runs another week — still shorter than the preceding 3rd wave — it would peak around June 20, at 4400. If it equalled wave 3 in time, it would reach an end around June 27, in the 4430s.
I would not bet the farm on those targets. My experience will Elliott wave analysis has shown me that at best, a target is an educated guess. I find Elliott wave targeting to be more accurate than other methods, but as always in market analysis, nothing is 100%. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy.
Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 15, 2021
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded in a sideways pattern — wave 4 of MIcro degree — throughout the day, reaching a high of 4247.50 on the futures, a point and a half below the June 10 peak. I’ve updated the chart. The analysis is unchanged.
9:45 a.m. New York time
What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to trade slightly below the June 10 high of 4249.
What does it mean? The lower price level, by my principle analysis, means that the rise that began on May 13 from 4029.95 is complete, and the following downward correction has begun.
What’s the alternative? The chart is also consistent with the a smaller correction within an ongoing rise from May 13.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]
What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise from May 13 to June 10 is wave 3 of Micro degree within wave 5 of Subminuette degree. I expect the 4th wave correction following Micro wave 3 to be shallow, as 4th waves tend to be. Also, the preceding 2nd wave correction was a Zigzag pattern, and by the rule of alternation, the 4th wave ought to be a Flat. All of this is happening within a series of 5th waves of higher degrees, up to wave 5 of Minute degree, which is the final wave of its parent, wav 3 of Minor degree, which began on February 23, 2020.
The end of the Micro 4th wave correction will mark the start of a push to new highs as wave 5 of Micro degree.
In the alternate analysis, the trading since June 10 has been a lower-degree correction within a still incomplete wave 3 of Micro degree.
Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 14, 2021
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 since the opening bell has traded within a narrow range, staying below yesterday’s high of 4249 on the futures, 4249.74 on the index. No change in the analysis. I’ve updated the chart.
9:50 a.m. New York time
Added a graf to the Elliott wave analysis section, below.
9:35 a.m. New York time
What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures in overnight trading remained below yesterday’s high of 4249.
What does it mean? The uptrend that began May 13 at 4066 continues. A price channel for the rise that began on March 4 from 3720.50 suggests that the price will reach the 4500s or higher before touching the channel’s upper boundary and reversing course.
What’s the alternative? Although prices tend to reach the upper boundaries of their channels, there’s no guarantee they will do so. An early reversal is possible.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars, with volume]
What does Elliott wave theory say? The price channel tracks wave 5 of Minuette degree, which began on March 4 from 3720.50. The lower boundary connects the starting points of waves 3 and 5 of Subminuette degree, with the parallel upper boundary passing through the end of Subminuette 3.
Presently, from small to large, wave 3 of Micro degree is underway, within wave 5 of Subminuette degree within wave of Minuette degree.
One striking aspect of the chart is the flatness of wave 3 of Micro degree. Third waves are usually powerhouses, with enough strength to trigger hopeful talk of a bull market. This is a very weak third wave. To my thinking, the shallow angle of the rise suggests that the S&P 500 will struggle to reach the upper boundary of the price channel.
Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 11, 2021
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 rose slightly higher than at the opening, to 4249 on the futures and 4249.74 on the index.The analysis is unchanged. I’ve updated the short-term chart.
10:05 a.m. New York time
What’s happening now? At the opening bell the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the index both moved above the high of May 9 after four days of trading within a narrow range just a few points below that peak.
What does it mean? The new high means the correction following the May 9 high has been a minor pullback within an uptrend stretching back to February 23, 2020. The new high requires a tentative repositioning of the upper boundary of an expanding triangle that began on December 26, 2018, from 2346.58 on the index. I say tentative because the rise from 2018 is not yet complete and each new high will require a readjustment.
What’s the alternative? The alternatives will concern just how much upside remains. At this point, I haven’t a clue. There’s no requirement that the present upward movement cover a lot of ground, nor a barrier to it doing so.
Charts. First, a short-term chart, covering the same period we’ve been tracking since the decline began on May 9.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]
… and then a long-term chart showing the entirety of the expanding triangle so far.
[S&P 500 index at 10:03 a.m., 2-day bars]
What does Elliott wave theory say? Wave 3 of Minor degree is still under way, a year and three months, plus a few weeks, after its inception. Within Minor 3, the correction, wave 4 of possibly Subminuette degree, ended on May 19, and the subsequent wave 5 of the same degree is still in an early stage, which I’ve labeled as wave 1 of Bitsy degree.
Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 10, 2021
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
