Live: Tuesday, November 12, 2019

3:15 p.m. New York time

I exited two momentum shares plays, NTRA ($38.38, -1.8% return) and RNG ($173.74, +0.4% return).

I replaced them with two entries using an analysts upward revision screen, FAF at $62.47 and IBP at $69.37.

My options positions are all chugging along within their profit zones.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 12, 2019

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APA Analysis

Apache Corp. (APA)

I have entered a short iron condor spread on APA, using options that trade for the last time 43 days hence, on December 20. The premium is a $1.29 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $24.01.

The profit zone for this position is between $28.79 on the upside and $18.79 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 72.0%.

Premium: $1.29 Expire OTM
APA-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 30.00 90.0% 14
Break-even 28.79 84.5% 20
Short 27.50 79.0% 26
Puts
Short 22.50 61.0% 33
Break-even 18.79 76.5% 19.5
Long 17.50 92.0% 6

The premium is 34.4% of the width of the position’s wings.

The profit zone covers a 19.9% move to the upside and a 27.8% move to the downside of the entry price, for total coverage of 47.7%

The risk/reward ratio is 1.9:1, with maximum risk of $246 and maximum reward of $129 per contract.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 7, 2019

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Live: Thursday, November 7, 2019

11:30 a.m. New York time

My short iron condor order on APA has been filled for $1.29, and I’ve posted an analysis.

11 a.m. New York time

I’ve renewed my attempt to open a short iron condor position on APA. The structure is +c30 -c27.5 -p22.5 +p17.5, with an asking price of $1.30. The implied volatility rank is 72.0%

My momentum shares position in ANIK was closed at $60.41, a $9.29 loss, when the price hit my trailing 20% stop/loss. I’ve replaced it with shares of NSIT, entered at 62.45.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 7, 2019

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Live:Wednesday, November 6, 2019

3:05 p.m. New York time

No fill on the APA short iron condor order. I’ll look at it again tomorrow.

10:45 a.m. New York time

Yesterday’s blow-out buying spree left me with some cash in my options account, so I’ve placed an order for a short iron condor position on a stock (rather than an ETF), APA. The structure is +c32.50 -c27.50 -p22.50 +p17.50, with an ask for a $1.60 credit. no fill as of yet.

APA — Apache Corp. — is an oddity because although it published earnings on October 30, it continues to show a high implied volatility rank, 78.3%. The downside is that it doubles my exposure to fossil fuels, in light of my position in XOP, established yesterday.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 6, 2019

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XLU Analysis

Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU)

I have entered a short iron condor spread on XLU, using options that trade for the last time 45 days hence, on December 20. The premium is a $0.85 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $62.75.

The profit zone for this position is between $64.85 on the upside and $58.85 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 27.0%.

Premium: $0.85 Expire OTM
XLU-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 66.00 92.0% 9
Break-even 64.85 80.0% 20.5
Short 64.00 68.0% 32
Puts
Short 61.00 71.0% 29
Break-even 58.85 80.5% 19.5
Long 58.00 90.0% 10

The premium is 34.0% of the width of the position’s wings.

The profit zone covers a 3.3% move to the upside and a 6.6% move to the downside of the entry price, for total coverage of 10.0%

The risk/reward ratio is 1.9:1, with maximum risk of $165 and maximum reward of $85 per contract.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 5, 2019

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TLT Analysis

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

I have entered a short iron condor spread on TLT, using options that trade for the last time 45 days hence, on December 20. The premium is a $1.62 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $136.97.

The profit zone for this position is between $141.62 on the upside and $130.62 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 39.5.

Premium: $1.62 Expire OTM
TLT-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 145.00 90.0% 10
Break-even 141.62 79.5% 20.5
Short 140.00 69.0% 31
Puts
Short 134.00 71.0% 29
Break-even 130.62 81.0% 19
Long 129.00 91.0% 9

The premium is 32.4% of the width of the position’s wings.

The profit zone covers a 3.4% move to the upside and a 4.9% move to the downside of the entry price, for total coverage of 8.3%

The risk/reward ratio is 2.1:1, with maximum risk of $338 and maximum reward of $162 per contract.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 5, 2019

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XLY Analysis

The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY)

I have entered a short iron condor spread on XLY, using options that trade for the last time 45 days hence, on December 20. The premium is a $1.66 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $121.97.

The profit zone for this position is between $126.52 on the upside and $114.52 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 30.2%.

Premium: $1.52 Expire OTM
XLY-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 128.00 90.0% 10
Break-even 126.52 80.5% 19
Short 125.00 71.0% 28
Puts
Short 119.00 69.0% 31
Break-even 114.52 79.5% 20.5
Long 113.00 90.0% 10

The premium is 33.8% of the width of the position’s wings.

The profit zone covers a 3.8% move to the upside and a 6.4% move to the downside of the entry price, for total coverage of 10.2%

The risk/reward ratio is 2:1, with maximum risk of $298 and maximum reward of $152 per contract.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 5, 2019

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XOP Analysis

SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP)

I have entered a short iron condor spread on XOP, using options that trade for the last time 45 days hence, on December 20. The premium is an $0.80 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $23.02.

The profit zone for this position is between $25.80 on the upside and $20.80 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 27.4.

Premium: $0.80 Expire OTM
XOP-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 27.00 91.0% 12
Break-even 25.80 83.5% 20.5
Short 25.00 76.0% 29
Puts
Short 22.00 62.0% 33
Break-even 20.80 73.0% 23.5
Long 20.00 84.0% 14

The premium is 40.0% of the width of the position’s wings.

The profit zone covers a 12.1% move to the upside and a 10.7% move to the downside of the entry price, for total coverage of 22.7%

The risk/reward ratio is 1.5:1, with maximum risk of $120 and maximum reward of $80 per contract.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 5, 2019

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GDX Analysis

VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF  (GDX)

I have entered a short iron condor spread on GDX, using options that trade for the last time 45 days hence, on December 20. The premium is a $0.45 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $26.89.

The profit zone for this position is between $29.60 on the upside and $23.60 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 44.0.

Premium: $0.60 Expire OTM
GDX-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 33.00 96.0% 6
Break-even 29.60 86.5% 16
Short 29.00 77.0% 26
Puts
Short 25.00 79.0% 20
Break-even 23.60 87.0% 12.5
Long 23.00 95.0% 5

The premium is 20.0% of the width of the position’s wings.

The profit zone covers a 9.4% move to the upside and a 14.6% move to the downside of the entry price, for total coverage of 24.0%

The risk/reward ratio is 4:1, with maximum risk of $240 and maximum reward of $60 per contract.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 5, 2019

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Live: Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2019

2:10 p.m. New York time

And that is a wrap for the day, insofar as options are concerned. I’ve opened five positions: GDX, TLT, XLUXLY and XOP, covering gold, long-term federal bonds, utilities, consumer discretionary and fossil fuels, respectively. I’ve passed on SLV for the present. It topped the implied volatility rank chart of my prospects yesterday, but then dropped to 4th place today. If it goes higher again I may enter, although, like love and marriage or a horse and carriage, silver and gold seem to be forever entwined. SLV adds little diversification to my holdings.

2:05 p.m. New York time

I’ve entered a short iron condor order on XLU and posted the analysis.

1:55 p.m. New York time

My short iron condor order on TLT as been filled and I’ve posted the analysis.

1:45 p.m. New York time

I’ve gotten a fill on my XLY short iron condor and posted the analysis.

1:20 p.m. New York time

I’ve entered a short iron condor position on XOP.

12:05 p.m. New York time

I’ve placed a short iron condor order on XLY, +c128 -c125 -p119 +p113, asking for a $1.56 credit. No fill yet.

11:45 a.m. New York time

I’ve placed a short iron condor order on TLT, +c145 -c140 -p134 +p129, asking for a credit of $1.66. No fill as of yet.

11:05 a.m. New York time

I’ve entered a short iron condor position on GDX.

10:35 a.m. New York time

This is the day I enter new options positions, expiring December 20 and constructed as short iron condors. My initial plan is to enter positions on GDX, SLV, TLT, XOP and XLY.

The my momentum screen of yesterday’s results knocked two positions off of the momentum list: FRO and NTRA. They join RNG and SBLK in having an exit signal based on the Fisher Transform (FT) using the monthly chart. All four presently  are in the FT bull mode.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 5, 2019

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