9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a low overnight of 6917.50 and then returned to the 6970s. At the opening bell, the price rose higher, briefly, to 6981.

What does it mean? The price remains in the zone of ambiguity when it comes to Elliott Wave Theory analysis. The question of the moment, is rising wave B{-9} still underway. It’s the second subwave of falling corrective wave 4{-8}. Or did wave B{-9} end on January 27 at 7043 and declining wave C{-9} begin.

Based on analysis of turning points, a fall below 6898.25 strengthens the case that wave C{-9} has begun, and a rise above 6985.75 suggests that wave B{-9} is still underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 110-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 30, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures dropped sharply during the session, falling from 7010.75 to 6898.25. Reports tied the selloff to a post-earnings repricing in Microsoft, where the market reacted less to the headline “beat” and more to concerns about the pace of cloud growth. Microsoft is a top-three S&P 500 weight (roughly 5%), so a fast downgrade in that one name can move the entire index.

Elliott Wave Theory. Today’s drop has the right “impulse feel” to be more than routine B-wave chop. In particular, the decline broke below 6985.75 (the overnight low) and printed a new low at 6898.25. That combination argues the market may have ended rising wave B{-9} (from the 1/21 low) and begun declining wave C{-9}, both subwaves of falling corrective wave 4{-8}.

Has wave C{-9} actually begun? The working answer is: possibly—but we can demand confirmation. B-waves can throw ugly spikes, but a true C-wave tends to behave differently: it usually does not allow price to casually reclaim broken supports. The first “tell” is whether the market can recover and hold above the breakdown zone. If rebounds stall quickly and the market returns to making lower lows, that strengthens the C{-9} case.

Here are today’s important decision levels.

• Downside confirmation: The day’s low at 6898.25 is now the near-term pivot. A decisive break below 6898.25 (and failure to reclaim it quickly) would reinforce that C{-9} is underway and is gaining traction.
• First reclaim test: 6985.75 (the prior overnight low) is the first big “line back in.” If price can reclaim 6985.75 and hold it, the market is telling you this selloff may be a spike within B{-9} churn, not a sustained C{-9} leg.
• Structure reset / “back to chop”: The larger reset level is the prior support band around 7010–7015. A clean reclaim and hold back above that zone would argue the market is not yet in a directional C-wave, and that B{-9} complexity may still be playing out.
• Upside invalidation of the “B{-9} ended” idea (strong form): A push back toward 7043 (the B{-9} high) that holds would strongly weaken the “C{-9} has begun” thesis and suggest B{-9} is extending again.

Below 6985.75, the burden of proof shifts to the bulls; below 6898.25, the chart starts to act like C{-9}.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell early overnight to 6985.75 and then rose to 7029.50, thereafter fluctuating from around 7000 into 7020s.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory analysis remains unchanged since January 21. Rising wave B{-9} is underway, the second subwave within falling corrective wave 4{-8}.

Here are today’s important decision levels. On the upside, the market must reclaim and hold above 7029.50 (the overnight high) to show buyers still have control. The real “line in the sand” is 7043: a clean push above 7043 that holds would argue wave B{-9} is extending and the market is aiming higher. On the downside, the first tell is 7015: if price falls below 7015 and cannot quickly reclaim it, the tone shifts from “chop” to “heavy.” The hard risk line is the overnight low at 6985.75— a decisive break below 6985.75 would be the first signal that the market may be transitioning from B-wave churn into something more directional down.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 160-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 29, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The big event of the day was the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on interest rates — they held them steady — and the S&P 500 Futures responded within a narrow range.

Elliott Wave Theory: Now underway, rising wave B{-9) within a declining correction, wave 4{-8}.Today’s FOMC volatility looked more like event-driven noise inside the existing range than a structural change in trend. A decisive break below 6991.25 that does not quickly recover would be the first sign that the market is shifting from choppy B-wave action into a more directional decline. Conversely, a push back above 7043 would signal renewed strength in the current rising wave.

The market gave a fast down-spike, ending at 6991.25 during Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference and then stabilized around the 7005 to 7010 range.

Until one of those levels breaks cleanly, the safest assumption is that the market remains in range and prone to sudden reversals.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rallied overnight to 7043, then backed off into the 7010s–7020s.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave count is unchanged: rising B{-9} continues as a countertrend rally inside falling 4{-8}. The larger structure still sits inside rising C{-7} within the upward correction 4{-6}.

Today’s key economic event is the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Markets often swing sharply around both releases.

Levels to watch. 7043 is the current B{-9} high; holding above the 6994 pivot keeps the B-wave thesis cleaner.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 160-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 28, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching a high of 7018.50.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave B{-9} within declining corrective wave 4{-8} continues.

A sustained move above 6994 keeps the upside case intact.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from 6997 at the closing bell to a peak so far of 7006.50. From that point the price declined into the 6990s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees wave B{-9} as continuing its rise. Yesterday’s rise suggested that the wave had more upside remaining, and the facts on the chart confirmed that insight. At this point, a new question arises: Was the overnight peak the end of wave B{-9} and has wave C{-9} begun?

Wave B{-9} is a subwave of wave 4{-8}, which in turn is a subwave of wave C{-7}, which began on November 21, 2025, from 6525. The parent wave is wave 4{-6}, which began on October 10, 2025 from 6540.25.

Each leg of wave 4{-6} so far has moved beyond the previous high or low of prior waves moving in the same direction, suggesting that the wave is taking the form of an Expanding Triangle. That form has five subwaves. Wave 4{-6} is in its C subwave, which is rising. Looking ahead, I expected wave C{-7} to move beyond the peak of wave A{-7}, 6953.75 on October 29 — which it did on January 21. Falling wave D{-7} will fall below the end point of wave B{-7}, 6525. And rising wave E{-7} will complete wave 4{-6} when it moves beyond the prior rising subwave, wave C{-7}, now underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 160-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 27, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching 6995.50. As noted in this morning’s analysis, holding above 6994 strengthens the case that the current move is advancing rather than fading.

Elliott Wave Theory: The market remains in rising wave B{-9} within declining corrective wave 4{-8}. In Elliott Wave Theory, B waves are corrective structures and are typically composed of three internal swings (though they can become more complex). On today’s chart, wave B{-9} appears to be progressing into its later internal phase, consistent with an unfolding bounce within a larger correction. The next upside reference remains 7036.25; a drop back below 6994 would weaken today’s signal and return the tape to range-first behavior.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened the overnight session with a sharp drop to 6879, then reversed higher, climbing back above 6950.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave context remains range-bound and corrective. The overnight low held above 6866.75 (the 1/2 pivot), so the market has not confirmed a breakdown in the current bounce. But the rebound is still below 6994 (12/26 pivot), so it has not confirmed a strong upside continuation either.

Bottom line. The chart remains indecisive, and the working lineup stays: Rising wave B{-9} within declining corrective wave 4{-8}, within rising wave C{-7}, within rising corrective wave 4{-6}. Key tells: Below 6866.75 = B{-9} likely fails / 4{-8} reasserts. Above 6994 = B{-9} strengthens (next reference: 7036.25).

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 100-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 26, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures spent the session in a range from the 6920s to the 6960s, with an intraday low of 6924.75 and a high of 6964.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave B{-9} within falling wave 4{-8} continues.

The rally that began on 1/21 from 6814.50 started at the end of wave A{-9}, which completed in three subwaves down to the low (ending with wave C{-10}). By classic Elliott Wave form, wave B{-9} must follow, and the market’s behavior fits that expectation: a sharp, near-vertical advance several hours into the session, followed by choppy back-and-forth trading as the rise begins to subdivide into smaller-degree waves.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight from 6938 to 6963.25, then pulled back into the 6920s as the opening bell approached. The price rose into the 6940s in the first few minutes of trading.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis remains unchanged. From smaller to larger: rising wave A{-10} is underway inside rising wave B{-9}, which is the middle subwave inside declining corrective wave 4{-8}.

Wave 4{-8} began on January 13 from 7036.25. The current countertrend rise, wave B{-9}, began on January 21 from 6814.50.

The entire structure remains contained within wave C{-7}, the final subwave of the larger upward correction, wave 4{-6}, which began on October 10, 2025 from 6540.25. Wave 4{-6} continues to take the form of an expanding triangle, with five subwaves labeled A{-7} through E{-7}, each falling lower and climbing higher than the wave that came before it.

Here are the levels to watch, based on analysis by the AI ChatGPT:

• On the upside, a push back above 6994 would strengthen the case that B{-9} is extending; 7036.25 remains the hard ceiling that would force a broader re-think.
• 6814.50 is the key floor. A break below it would likely end B{-9} and resume the next decline within 4{-8}.
• 6866.75 is the next nearby decision point; losing it would weaken the bounce materially.
• On the upside, a push back above 6994 would strengthen the case that B{-9} is extending; 7036.25 remains the hard ceiling that would force a broader re-think.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)
  • A{-10} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 23, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose early, reaching 6969, and then slipped back into the mid-6940s. Net: A mostly sideways session—plenty of motion, little progress.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis is unchanged. Rising wave B{-9} continues as the middle subwave of the upward correction, wave 4{-8}. Today’s action reads as corrective: choppy, overlapping, and lacking follow-through.

Key levels (near-term). Today’s high is the upside reference. A clean break and hold above it would strengthen the case that B{-9} still has room to run. Failure to hold the mid-6940s keeps the “stalling” narrative intact and would raise the odds of a deeper pullback within the B-wave.

A trading day of sound and fury, but not much progress—signifying very little. (With a nod to William Shakespeare’s play “Macbeth”.)

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 5-minute bars, with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened the overnight session at 6945, declined to an overnight low of 6911.25, and then reversed and rose back into the 6950s as the opening bell approached. The move looks dramatic in miniature, but in net terms the futures have barely budged. Overnight was motion without progress.

What does it mean? When the market can travel 30–40 points and end up essentially unchanged, it is usually signaling “waiting for the next shove.” With a dense economic calendar this morning, that shove is likely to come from the data.

Elliott Wave Theory: The analysis is unchanged: Wave 4{-8}, a downward correction, remains underway.

Within wave 4{-8}, the subwave picture is less clear. The most likely interpretation is that the first subwave, wave A{-9}, ended on January 21 at 6814.50, and rising wave B{-9} is now underway. Since the A-wave subdivided into three waves, the principal interpretation is that wave 4{-8} is taking the form of a Flat (3-3-5).

Alternatively—less likely in my view—it’s possible that wave 4{-8} ended on January 21, and that rising wave 5{-8} has begun. This would imply a relatively short wave 4{-8}. For now, I lean strongly toward the principal interpretation.

Risk factors. At 8:30 a.m. ET we get Initial Jobless Claims and the GDP first revision. At 10:00 a.m. ET we get a series of PCE reports. I’m treating the interval from 8:30 through shortly after 10:00 as the decision window—first impulse, reaction, and then the second move that often reveals what traders actually believe.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)
  • A{-10} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 22, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached into the 6940s during the session.

Elliott Wave Theory. The larger conclusion is unchanged: Downtrending corrective wave 4{-8} continues. One plausible internal count is that the decline is unfolding as wave A{-9}, and that today’s rebound may be wave 4{-10} within that A-wave.

This is only a working map, not a confirmation. A sustained break back above the post-speech recovery zone would strengthen the alternative view that A{-9} ended at 6814.50 and wave B{-9} is underway. Conversely, a new low below 6814.50 would strengthen the view that A{-9} is still unfolding, with one more decline ahead.

The futures have now rallied to 6916.25. If it can hold above ~6915 into the close, that strengthens the alternative view that A{-9} ended at 6814.50 and B{-9} is underway. A fade back below ~6900 (and especially 6866.75) would keep the larger corrective downtrend dominant and leave open the possibility of another decline toward 6814.50.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight to 6857.50, fell sharply to 6814.50, and then rebounded just as sharply—reaching the mid-6850s (about 6860 at the peak) as President Trump spoke at the Davos conference.

Shortly before the opening bell, the price peaked at 6865.75 and then fell into the 6540s. As this analysis was published, the speech continued.

What does it mean? The speech-timed spike was insufficient to change the Elliott Wave interpretation. Downtrending corrective wave 4{-8} continues, unfolding within rising wave C{-7} and its parent, rising corrective wave 4{-6}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 160-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 21, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose slightly early in the session and then resumed their downward march, so far reaching into the 6820s.

Elliott Wave Theory: Downtrending corrective wave 4{-8} continues. The decline has now moved below the first Fibonacci retracement target (38.2% of the prior advance), which keeps the correction’s momentum intact. The next likely stopping zones are 6781 (50%) and 6720 (61.8%); a deeper “stretch” level is 6634 (78.6%). I will watch for basing or reversal structure at each level; absent that, the odds favor continuation to the next zone.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined overnight, from 6916.50 into the 6840s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to see downtrending wave 4{-8} underway. The decline began on January 13 from 7036.25, then rose a bit at the opening bell. This corrective wave is a subwave of rising wave C{-7}, which is in turn a subwave of the broader upward correction, wave 4{-6}, which began on October 10, 2025 from 6540.25.

The AI ChatGPT analyzed the chart with the goal of estimating how far the price might fall. ChatGPT writes:

To estimate how far wave 4{-8} might travel, I measure how much it is retracing the prior advance it is correcting—namely rising wave C{-7} (6525 on 11/21 to 7036.25 on 1/13). A common method is Fibonacci retracement: markets often pause or reverse after giving back about 38%, 50%, or 62% of the prior move. Wave C{-7} spans 511.25 points, so the key retracement targets from the 7036.25 peak are: 38.2% at 6840.95 (already reached), 50% at 6780.63, 61.8% at 6720.30, and a deeper “stretch” level at 78.6%: 6634.41. These are not certainties; they are likely stopping zones where I will watch for basing, reversal structure, or a breakdown to the next level.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 160-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 20, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

Market Holiday. The U.S. markets are closed today in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. The S&P 500 futures resumed trading Sunday evening, and remained active into Monday.

10 a.m. New York time

The S&P 500 futures close. The holiday session ended at 10 a.m. Futures reached a morning low of 6887.50, then reversed higher, rising to 6915.75 before the close. The rebound was too shallow to overturn this morning’s conclusion: a downtrending corrective wave 4{-8} is underway.

I’ve posted a short-term chart with 5-minute bars to show the course of today’s trading.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 10 a.m., 5-minute bars, with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reopened Sunday evening with a 59.5-point gap down. The decllne continued, so far reaching a low of 6890.25. The total drop as of now is 87.50.

What does it mean? The decline resolves the Elliott Wave Theory ambiguity that had plagued the chart for days. The uptrending 3rd wave that began on January 2 from 6866.75 ended on January 13 at 7036.25. A 4th-wave downward correction began at that point, on that date, and is still underway.

The waves in play are wave 3{-8} and 4{-8}, both within rising wave C{-7}, which began on November 21, 2025 from 6525, and wave 4{-6}, an upward correction that began on October 10, 2025 from 6540.25.

The analysis on Friday, based on Fibonacci levels and wave lengths within the structure, had determend that a move below 6923.25 would be confirmation that wave 4{-8} is underway. The chart as of this writing is 33 points below that level.

Why the gap? The Monday morning news report attribute it to President Trump saying Saturday on social media that he would impose 10% tariffs on eight European countries if they were continue opposing his plan for the U.S. to take over governance of Greenland. The countries are Denmark, France, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the U.K.

Sunday’s gap-down is a reminder that political developments can still matter quickly and disproportionately for prices. One plausible explanation is that traders used the thin overnight session to reprice policy and geopolitical uncertainty; if so, the move may be less a “technical decision” than a sudden shift in perceived risk. Either way, the practical takeaway is the same: this week our stance can’t be set once and forgotten—caution versus participation, and even “no trade,” will be a daily decision.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 10 a.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 19, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com