3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching a daily high so far of 6893.75 before retreating slightly.

Elliott Wave Theory: A 2nd-wave upward correction within the downtrending 5th wave that began on December 15 continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from 6820 to 6954.25 overnight, pulled back into the 6820s, and then with the opening bell rose higher into the 6860s.

What does it mean? The movement remained well below the December 15 peak, and Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the downtrending 5th wave that began on that date from 6912.25 as being underway.

Wave 5{-7}, when complete, will also be the end of its parent, wave 5{-6}, and of the wave one degree higher, wave 1{-5}, which began on October 8, from 6812.25

A likely end point for wave 5{-7} is 6748. However, 5th waves somtimes extend to a larger distance, and it’s possible wave 5{-7} could drop to 6700, or in extreme cases, as far as the 6630s or the 6550s.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} (none), 12/15/2025, 6932.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 12/17/2025, 6771.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 19, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to rise shortly before the opening bell and continued to rise during the session. The peak, 6872, was followed by a slight decline.

Elliott Wave Theory: The day’s peak was well below the starting point, 6932.75, of downtrending wave 5{-7}, now underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose slightly after the Consumer Price Index data was published prior to the opening bell. Because of the government shutdown in October and November, data is missing, and the comparisons cover a two month span rather than one month. The first post-shutdown historically comparable report will on January 13.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the rise as being a subwave of downtrending wave 5{-7}, perhaps several degrees smaller than the parent wave 5, perhaps only one wave smaller. It’s hard to tell this early in a wave’s development.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} (none), 12/15/2025, 6932.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 18, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures declined sharply during the session, reaching below 6800.

Elliott Wave Theory: The 4th wave upward correction that began on November 21 at 6525 ended on December 15 at 6932.25. In the mark-up of the chart: Wave 4{-7} has ended and wave 5{-7} has begun.

The 5th wave will likely move below the start of wave 4 — 6525. Fifth waves have a lot of variation, though, so it could stop short of that level, or it could drop a surprising distance below it.

Also, that expanding triangle I thought was happening for the past few days? It never happened. The chart gained clarity with today’s swift and larger reversal, allowing a more likely analysis, the end of wave 4 and the start of wave 5.

And a note of caution: In past months we’ve all learned to be observant for head-fake reversals, where a decline appears to have started the next downward wave reverses and continues it’s rise. It could happen here, but maybe it won’t.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from the 5830s to the 5880s, remaining within the range of the net sideways movement that began on December 5. It began to decline as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the rise since that began on November 21 as being a 4th-wave upward correction. It is now in its second subwave, declning wave B{-8}.

The nature of B{-8} lacks clarity. It’s possible to see it as an expanding triangle, which will have five subwaves. It’s also possible to see it as a contracting/running triangle. It’s an excellent example of the ambiguity that abounds Elliott Wave Theory.

One way it will attain clarity will be as the internal count with wave B progresses. B waves have three subwaves, and it’s the subwave count that is the source of the unclarity.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} (none), 12/15/2025, 6932.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 17, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures largely spent the session moving lower, with periodic upward reversals that didn’t last.

Elliott Wave Theory: Wave 4(-7}, a rising upward correction, continues on its course. The final subwave within wave 4 will be a rising wave. How do we know when a rising wave mean the end of wave 4 and the start of wave 5{-7}? The expanding triangle pattern we’re seeing brings with it a lack of clarity. A drop below the previous low in the pattern, 6805 set on December 12, will suggest that a change may in fact be happening, but it’s not teverified. The price would need to not only move below that level but would stay below it. If it’s a true beginning of wave 5, it will show more clarity and energy than we’re seeing so far.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from the 6870s to the 6890s when the Employment Situation Report for November was released, an hour before the opening bell. The price rapidly retraced down to the 6860s.

What does it mean? I have reworked the Elliott Wave Theory analysis analysis to fix some problems that had crept in going back several months. The main change for the present is that the corrective wave that began on November 21 is now labelled rising wave 4{-7}. The earlier analyses had labeled wave 5{-7} as still being underway.

Declining wave 5{-7}, which will begin at the moment wave 4{-7} ends, most likely will carry the price down to below 6525 — the starting point of wave 4{-7} — and possible a significant distance below that level.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 4{-7} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 16, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a new high point today, the peak so far of the uptrend that began on November 21.

Elliott Wave Theory: The peak is part of a 4th-wave upward correction, wave 4{-10}, within wave A{-9], the latter being the firsr subwave of wave 2{-8}..

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures closed last week at 6833.50 and resumed trading at 6890, a 56.50 openng gap. As the opening bell approached, the price exceeded 6900.

What does it mean? The pattern is an expanding triangle, a less common form in Elliott Wave Theory analysis wherein each high moves higher than the one before the each low moves lower. Altogether there are five subwaves.

The boundaries of the triangle are marked on the chart with red dashed lines.

The smaller waves are trending upward, but the larger degrees — the ones that really move the market — are downtrending.

The triangle is wave 4{-10}, a relatively small wave that is a subwave of wave A{-9}, the initial subwave of wave 2{-8}, which began on November 21 from 6525.

Wave 2 is the second of five subwaves within downtrending wave 5{-7}, the final subwave of wave 5{-6}, also downtrending, and encompassing those waves are a series of 1st waves, each larger than the one before it, to wave 1{-2}. They all began on October 8 in a major reversal from 6812.25.

When wave 2{-8} is complete, downtrending wave 3{-8} will begin, carrying the down to the low 6500s and most likely lower.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • A{-9} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 15, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 a.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. After pushing above the upper boundary of the expanding triangle earlier today, the S&P 500 futures reversed hard and drove down to the triangle’s lower boundary (roughly the 6830s). From there it bounced, attempting to retrace back toward the interior of the pattern.

Elliott Wave Theory: The downward corrective triangle continues, labeled, in red on the chart, as wave 4{-10} within wave A{-9} within the larger wave 2{-8}. Wave 2{-8} is the larger wave in the current sequence: an upward correction that began on November 21.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to a new high on Thursday, reaching 6928.75, and the dropping into the 6890s and 6980s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis shows the movement to be consistent with an expanding corrective triangle, whose components are marked on the chart in red.

The triangle is a subwave — wave 4{-10} — within wave A{-9}, itself the first subwave within a larger triangle, wave 2{-8}, an upward correction. Wave 2 invalidated the more common Elliott Wave Theory patterns by moving beyond the start of wave 1, and therefore had to be one of the less common types.

I’m confident in my considering wave 2{-8} as being a triangle, less so in the case of wave 4{-10}.

Wave 2{-8} ruled out the more common corrective templates because price action pushed beyond a boundary that those patterns normally respect—specifically, it moved beyond the start of wave 1{-8}. That behavior forced a relabel to a less common corrective structure. In my count, the best fit is a triangle variant (an expanding triangle), which also explains the repeated head-fakes: higher highs followed by sharp pullbacks, followed by still higher highs.

Internally, wave A has been through a series of higher highs followed by declines that were followed by still higher highs. The expanding triangle pattern is an explanation for what other wise would be a series of head fakes.

What comes next? As a triangle, wave 2{-8} will have five subwaves, rather than the three subwaves more common in corrections. It is still in its first subwave, wave A{-9}, which along with its parent wave began on November 21.

Long story short, wave 2 will be with us for awhile as it complets wave A and works through wave B through E, each wave covering more ground than the one before.

When wave 2 is finally complete, wave 3{-8} will follow, a downtrending that most likely will fall below, perhaps by a significant distance, the end point of downtrending wave 1{-8}, at 6525 on November 21.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • A{-9} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 3{-10} (none), 12/5/2025, 6905 (down–expanding triangle)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 12, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 once again began what looked like a new downtrending wave, only to reverse and climb, coming close to a higher high and turning the apparent downtrend into yet another head fake.

Elliott wave A{-9} continues; on that point we can be confident. Its parent, rising corrective wave 2{-8}, is also underway and is taking the form of a Triangle.

So far, so good. But why all of the head fakery?

One Elliott Wave pattern that naturally produces this kind of behaviour within wave A{-9} is the expanding triangle: a net sideways movement in which each new high exceeds the last and each new low undercuts the prior low. That is precisely the pattern that appears on the chart.

I have marked this candidate triangle with wave numbers in red and drawn one line connecting the highs and another connecting the lows. Under this analysis, which remains provisional, the expanding triangle is wave 4{-10} within wave A{-9}.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. As the closing bell approached on Wednesday, the S&P 500 E-mini futures pushed to a new high at 6908, extending the rise that began on November 21. Price then dropped hard to 6817.50 before reversing and reclaiming roughly half of that decline.

What does it mean? The fresh high was important for Elliott Wave analysis because it confirmed that rising wave A{-9} is still in force, a conclusion that had been in doubt for several days.

But the strength of the subsequent reversal immediately threw that verdict back into question. Did wave A{-9} actually end at 6908, with wave B{-9} now starting down? Or was the drop just a headfake within an ongoing A{-9} advance?

The structure one degree higher adds another layer. Waves A{-9} and B{-9} are components of wave 2{-8}, an upward correction that is taking the shape of a sideways triangle. Most corrections have three subwaves; triangles have five, labeled A through E.

We cannot yet know with certainty whether wave A{-9} is complete. What we can do is use prior pausing points as signals and frame what prices would confirm each scenario. For that, I turned to the ChatGPT AI for an outside read.

The AI writes:

“Wednesday’s push to 6908 likely completed wave A{-9} of the developing 2{-8} triangle, but the follow-through will tell us which wave is really in force. A decisive break below 6817.50 in regular trading hours, especially if it carries down toward the 6760–6720 area, would confirm that wave B{-9} is unfolding. By contrast, a sustained move back above 6908 would argue that A{-9} is still extending, or that a new C{-9} leg higher is already in progress. Until one of those signals appears, I’m treating the current swings between 6817.50 and 6908 as an unresolved topping consolidation.”

My working rule is not to change chart labels until a new wave is confirmed. Wave B{-9} has not yet met that test. On the chart, therefore, wave A{-9} remains the active label within wave 2{-8}, pending clearer evidence to the contrary.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • A{-9} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 3{-10} (none), 12/5/2025, 6905 (down–expanding triangle)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 11, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures whipsawed higher after the Federal Open Market Committee cut the target range by ¼ point to 3.50%–3.75%. The first reaction spike topped at 6861.75 and faded quickly, but the tone shifted during Powell’s news coferende: about five minutes in, the futures pushed higher again, tagging 6886.75, holding in that area, and then rising further, to above 6906.75, which is $1.75 above the prior peak within the rise that began on November 21, 6905.

Elliott Wave Theory: That reclaim-and-hold above the prior resistance shelf near 6885 strengthens the case that Wave A{-9} is still underway (or extending), so I’ve kept the existing A{-9} labeling on the chart. A reversal back under the earlier breakout area would be the first warning that the move was only a headline pop rather than a sustained continuation.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures once again traded narrowly overnight, tracing a net sideways pattern. And once again the movement raised the question, has the rise that began on November 21 refersed, taking the S&P 500 in a new direction?

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the rise as being wave A{-9} within an upward correction, wave 2{-8}. If wave rising A{-9} truly ended at the most recent peak in the rise, 6906 on December 5, then falling wave B{-9} has begun.

The ChatGPT AI’s estimate of whether the resistance levels and what answer they imply to the question.

“Overnight the S&P 500 futures are still coiling in a tight pre-FOMC box (~6859–6834), which keeps the central question alive: was 6906 (12/5) the end of Wave A{-9}, meaning Wave B{-9} has begun? As long as price fails to reclaim 6859 with follow-through, the simplest read is that B{-9} is already in progress as a corrective/consolidative phase. To weaken that call, bulls need acceptance above ~6885 (nearest resistance shelf) and then a return to 6905–6906; a clean breakout above 6906 would argue that the correction is ending and the larger upward structure is reasserting itself. Until then, this looks like ‘marking time’ into the 2:00 p.m. ET FOMC catalyst rather than a resolved trend.”

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • A{-9} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 10, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3.30 p.m. New York time.

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session to 6872.75 and then retreated to the 6850s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The futures continue to occupy the middle ground, neither clearly rising as wave A{-9} nor fallng as wave B{-9}, leaving the nature of the movements swimming in a pool of ambiguity.

Analyzing the signals that might bring clarity, the AI ChatGPT writes: “Today’s tape still argues for transition, not trend. ES bounced from roughly 6845 to about 6873, but then slipped back to the 6855 decision line—classic retest behavior that doesn’t yet confirm a new down leg. For B{-9} to look ‘real,’ ES would need to fail at/under 6855 and then accept below 6845, with the next major confirmation coming on a decisive break of the ~6823 shelf (and less ambiguity below 6791.25). If, instead, ES reclaims 6855 and holds, then pushes back above ~6873, the market keeps the door open to A{-9} resuming and another attempt toward 6905.”

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded narrowly overnight, producing a net decline from the 6860s to the 6840s. The rise that began on November 21 peaked on December 5 at 6905 and then reversed. However, there is as yet no confirmation that the reversal is a true change in the market direction. Confirmation would come from a decisive break below the ~6823 shelf, followed by a rebound that fails to reclaim the 6855–6885 zone.

What does it mean? The rise from November 21, view lens of Elliott Wave Theory, is risng wave A{-9}, the first subwave within an upward correction, wave 2{-8}. The question posed by the chart today, once again, is whether wave A{-9} ended at the peak on December 5, which would mean that B{-9] has begun its decline, or whether wave A{-9} is still underway.

Until there is confirmation of a true directional change, I shall continue to label the ongoing wave as wave A[-9}.

As it turns out, today’s decline increases the odds that wave A{-9} is over. I rely on the AI to handle this complex analysis, and turn to ChatGPT for a report:

---

ChatGPT writes:

On this chart, it still isn’t proven that B{-9} is underway, but the market is behaving more like the early innings of B than like a clean continuation of A.

First—tiny typo check: I’m assuming your overnight range was 6860s–6840s (the chart is in the 6800s, with last around 6849.5).

What the tape is saying right now

• The 12/5 high at 6905 remains the obvious candidate for the end of A{-9}.
• Monday’s decline broke the 6845–6855 “line of defense” and has not reclaimed it with authority.
• Overnight is narrow + beneath that broken area → that’s consistent with a market that’s digesting a break (often how a B-leg starts), but it hasn’t yet taken out the next support.

The two scenarios (and what would confirm each)

1) B{-9} has begun (more likely if support gives way)

• What you’d expect next: a break of the ~6823 shelf, then a failed bounce that can’t get back above 6855–6885.
• “Not proven” trigger: a decisive move under 6791.25 (the 11/20 pivot). That’s when it starts to look less like chop and more like a real down leg.

2) A{-9} is still underway (still possible, but it needs a reclaim)

• What you’d want to see: hold 6823, then reclaim 6855, then push back into 6885–6895.
• Confirmation: take out 6905 and hold above it (acceptance, not just a tag).

A quick proportional clue (why B isn’t “confirmed” yet)

A{-9} ran roughly 6525 → 6905 (~380 points). A typical B retrace often reaches 6760 (38%), 6715 (50%), or 6670 (62%). We’re only ~56 points off the top so far—so either:

• This is still a corrective pause inside wave A
• Or, wave B is just starting

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • A{-9} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 9, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reversed early in the session, falling from the 6890s so far into the 6830s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The brisk fall again potentially means wave B{-9} within rising correction wave 2{-9} raises the question of the legitimacy of the new wave. As often as not, I’ve found, many “new” waves turns= out to be old-wave headfakes.

This time, however, there may be less ambiguity. ChatGPT writes: “This drop makes the question sharper because it punched through the first “line of defense” (the 6845–6855 area) and is now forcing the market to prove that the late-November advance is more than a one-way squeeze. On the chart, the 12/5 high at 6905 still reads as a plausible termination point for wave A{-9} within 2{-8}, and today’s slide to roughly 6842 is exactly what a trader sees at the start of a wave-B style retracement—unless it quickly stabilizes and reasserts the prior uptrend. From here, the ‘Is this reversal real?’ filter is straightforward: if price holds the ~6823 shelf, rebounds, and can reclaim 6855 without rolling over again, then today’s decline can still be treated as a corrective dip inside an ongoing reversal attempt. But if ES breaks 6823 with momentum and then any bounce fails below 6855–6885, the odds shift toward ‘A is done and B is underway,’ with 6791.25 becoming the next key ‘not proven’ trigger.”

[Suggested reading: The essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?”, with the subtitle, “How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed.”]

There’s not enough evidence for action yet. Among other things, I’m looking for a bear call options vertical bear call spread position, in line with the downtrending nature of the parent waves several degrees higher. The daily Ehlers Stochastic on SPY, the ETF that, like the futures, is based on the S&P 500 index, is in overbought territory — a plus — but it hasn’t broken below the 1.0 bar at the top, which signals that the downward run truly has begin.

Looming over it all is the Federal Open Market Committee meeting to change interest rates. Their statement will be released Wednesday at 2 p.m. New York time, with a news conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled for a half an hour later. Potential, either will be a complicating factor in the market’s behavior and therefore in the timing of the waves.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures .traded narrowly when trading resumed, opening in the 6870s and reaching the 6890s as the session’s opening bell drew near. The price remained below the high so far, 6906, in the rise that began on November 21.

What does it mean? That rise, wave A{-9} on the chart, is the initial subwave in the upward correction, wave 2{-8}. The chart today presents Elliott Wave Theory with the same question it has faced every day since late November: Is this reversal real? Every new high, followed by a reversal, can be interpreted as as the end of rising wave A and the beginning of falling wave B. And yet, the present rise, it has never turned out that way.

There are methods that, when applied, reduce the rate of false conclusions in analyzing the chart. This morning, shortly before publishing this analysis, Trader’s Notebook, I posted an essay on that subject that I highly recommend to traders trying to make sense charts.

The essay is titled, “Is This Reversal Real?”, with the subtitle, “How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed.”

I asked the author of the essay to apply the methods to the chart. It’s answer:

“On this 40-minute ES chart, the “Is this reversal real?” question basically comes down to whether the 11/21 washout low at 6525 has truly flipped the market into a durable higher-high / higher-low sequence—or whether the surge is just a sharp countertrend rally that’s about to fade. The rally leg into 6905 (12/5) is the kind of thrust you want to see at the start of a reversal, but the fact that we’re not printing a fresh high yet today suggests we’re still in a prove-it phase: either a normal pause (think wave-2/B style consolidation after the first reversal push) or the early warning of rejection. For the reversal to look “real,” any dip should stay corrective and defend the prior structure (first line around the 6845–6855 area, then the ~6823 shelf); a slip back under the 11/20 6791.25 pivot would be the cleanest “not proven” signal. Conversely, a push through 6905 followed by acceptance (holding above it, not just tagging it) would be the simplest confirmation that buyers still control the turn.”

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • A{-9} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 8, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com