3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to fall shortly before the opening bell and reached 7752.75, then reversed and rose to 7811.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave D{-5} most likely remains underway. However, at this stage of the structure, every new peak could mark the end of wave D{-5} and the beginning of falling wave E{-5}.

Decision Points. Today’s sharp decline and equally sharp recovery provide no clear evidence that the transition from wave D{-5} to wave E{-5} has occurred. A move above 7848.50 would strengthen the case that wave D{-5} continues. Until the structure of a decline provides evidence that wave E{-5} is underway, the present labels remain unchanged.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from 7748.50 to 7800.75, and then began to fall as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? The overnight rise is consistent with an Elliott Wave Theory reading that shows rising wave D{-5} still underway, along with its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}. Both are subwaves of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction taking the form of an expanding triangle that began on October 29, 2025.

When wave D{-5} is complete, wave 4{-4}’s final subwave, falling wave E{-5}, will begin. A characteristic of expanding triangles is that each subwave travels farther than the prior subwave moving in the same direction. Just as wave D{-5} has moved beyond the end of wave B{-5}, wave E{-5} would normally be expected to move below the end of wave C{-5}.

Decision Points. The overnight rise has not exceeded the 7848.50 high, so it provides no confirmation that wave C{-6} is extending upward. Nor does the decline from 7800.75 provide sufficient evidence that wave D{-5} has ended. The present labels remain in place until price and wave structure provide clearer evidence of the transition from D{-5} to E{-5}.

The Chart shows wave 4{-4} in its entirety. The blue lines are the likely upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle. I hedge the description because, as wave D{-5} demonstrates, a wave can move beyond a boundary. Conversely, a wave can come up short and fail to reach one.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 25, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures zigzagged higher during the session, so far reaching 7783.50, slightly above the peak that preceded the overnight decline.

Elliott Wave Theory. The net sideways movement left the day with no change to the wave structure of the chart. Rising wave D{-5} appears to be continuing, as does its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}.

Decision Points. A rise above the September high of 7848.50 would verify that rising wave D{-5}, and its subwave C{-6}, remain underway. Without that verification, we can deal only in probabilities.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to fall for a second day in a row, reaching an overnight high of 7779.25 less than an hour after yesterday’s session ended, and then falling, so far to a low of 7707.25.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to see rising wave D{-5} as being underway. Wave D{-5} is the fourth of five waves that will complete the expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Internally, wave D{-5} is in its third and final subwave, rising wave C{-6}.

The price remains well above the rising upper boundary of the triangle, presently in the 7410s. When the price falls below that boundary, it will be a strong sign that wave D{-5} has ended and falling wave E{-5} is underway. Wave E{-5}, the final subwave, would normally be expected to fall toward the lower boundary of the triangle, presently around 6120 and falling further every moment.

Decision Points. The two-day decline has not yet provided sufficient evidence that wave D{-5} has ended. A fall below the triangle’s upper boundary would provide strong evidence that wave E{-5} has begun. Until then, the D{-5}/C{-6} labels remain in place. A rise above the September high of 7848.50 would reinforce the view that rising wave C{-6} remains underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 24, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures have fallen for most of the session, reaching a low of 7758.75 as the closing bell draws near. Today’s low remains above Monday’s low.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave D{-5} continues, as does its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}. Today’s decline from 7843.25 is substantial on the intraday chart, but it remains within Monday’s range and well above the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle. The decline is therefore not yet sufficient to establish that rising wave C{-6}, and with it wave D{-5}, has ended. Continued weakness could provide evidence that declining wave E{-5}, the final subwave of the triangle, has begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to 7843.25 overnight, and then began a steep decline, so far reaching 7818.75.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis continues to view rising wave D{-5} as being underway. It is the next-to-the-last subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Wave D{-5} is in its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}.

Decision Points. The steep decline from 7843.25 raises the possibility that rising wave C{-6}, and therefore wave D{-5}, may be approaching completion. So far, however, the decline is insufficient to establish that either wave has ended. A renewed rise would leave the present analysis intact; continued weakness could provide evidence that the final declining wave E{-5} of the expanding triangle has begun.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 23, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell after reaching a pre-session high of 7848.50, declining to the 7823 area before taking back about half of the loss. They then fluctuated largely in the 7820s and 7830s.

Elliott Wave Theory is unchanged. Rising wave D{-5} continues, as does its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}.

Decision Points. A rise above 7848.50 would extend wave C{-6} to another high and leave the analysis unchanged. A decline below the overnight low of 7810.50 would provide stronger evidence that wave C{-6}, and therefore wave D{-5}, may have ended. Price alone, however, would not be sufficient to make that change; the wave structure would need to confirm the turn.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fluctuated within a relatively narrow range for most of overnight trading, with the exception of a steep drop that began around 3:30 a.m. and carried the price from 7835.25 down to 7810.50 about an hour later. The futures then immediately whipsawed back to the upside, reaching the 7830s and, after a pause, the 7840s.

What does it mean? The movement does nothing to alter the Elliott Wave Theory analysis. Rising wave D{-5} continues, having begun on March 30 from 6353.25. It is the next-to-last subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Wave C{-6}, the final subwave of wave D{-5}, began on July 29 from 7324.

Decision Points. A rise above the September 21 high of 7847.25 would extend wave C{-6} and leave the present analysis intact. A sustained decline below the overnight low of 7810.50 would signal near-term weakness, but would not by itself be sufficient to declare wave D{-5} complete and wave E{-5} underway. That change will require clearer evidence of a completed turn.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 22, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures moved above the August 13 high, 7838.50, and so far have reached into the 7840s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The higher high has consequences for our analysis, as follows.

First, falling wave E{-5} is not underway, and never was.

Second, rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30 from 6353.25, is still underway and has never reached an end point.

Third, wave D{-5} is in its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}.

Such surprises happen from time to time in Elliott Wave analysis, an example of the fact that Elliott Wave Theory is not a prediction of the future but a mapping of what has occurred, with a discussion of the implications based on prior, similar patterns.

At such moments, I tend to pause and repeat a quote that appears at the bottom of each analysis, in the Learning and resources section. The quote is from 20th-century semanticist Alfred Korzybski in his book Science and Sanity (1933): “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And, I always add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

Decision Points. Rising wave C{-6} and therefore wave D{-5} remain underway. The move above 7838.50 removes that former peak as an Elliott Wave barrier, so there is no reason to assume that today’s new high marks an endpoint. The task now is to watch for evidence that wave C{-6} has completed. A reversal by itself would not be enough; the developing structure would need to distinguish an internal correction within C{-6} from completion of wave D{-5}. Only after D{-5} is shown to be complete would falling wave E{-5}, the final subwave of the expanding triangle, begin.

The revised chart.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise when trading resumed, opening at 7713.75 and reaching into the 7770s as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory is clear on the larger waves but uncertain on the smallest.

Big waves underway:

• Wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.
• Wave E{-5}, a falling wave that began on August 13 and is the final subwave within wave 4{-4}.
• Wave A{-6}, also falling, began on August 13 and is the first subwave within wave E{-5}.

Smaller subwave:

Falling wave A{-7}, the first subwave of wave A{-6}, may still be underway Or, wave A{-7} may have ended at 7575 on September 16, with rising wave B{-7}, the second of three subwaves, now underway.

The situation remains ambiguous. The rise to 7771.25 has retraced nearly three-quarters of the decline from the August 13 high, 7838.50, to the September 16 low, 7575. The farther the price rises, the more likely it becomes that wave B{-7} is underway, although the move has not yet provided verification.

Decision Points. Continued strength would add evidence that wave B{-7} is underway. A renewed decline would leave the smaller-degree count unresolved until the emerging structure makes clear whether wave A{-7} continued or a completed B{-7} has given way to the next declining subwave. A move back to the August 13 high, 7838.50, would require reassessment of the larger count.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Now Outdated. New chart above

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 21, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, reaching a low of 7675 and then rebounding to the neighborhood of 7700.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis remains unchanged. Falling wave E{-5} continues, as does its initial subwave, falling wave A{-6}. Today’s decline strengthens that interpretation after the ambiguity discussed this morning.

Decision Points. A renewed decline would add evidence that wave A{-6} remains underway. A sustained rise above today’s overnight high of 7739.25 would again raise the possibility that wave A{-6} has ended and rising wave B{-6} has begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from an early low of 7696 to a high of 7739.25. It then reversed, all of the gain and then some. The price then began to rise as the opening bell drew near.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to conclude that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

Within that wave, the question remains whether falling wave A{-6} continues or whether it has ended and rising wave B{-6} is underway. The overnight rise to 7739.25 was too small to verify the B{-6} scenario, and the subsequent retreat nearly back to its starting point weakened that possibility further. The ambiguity therefore remains unresolved.

Wave E{-5} is the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Within that sort of triangle, each rising wave moves higher than the one before, and each falling wave moves lower than its predecessor, allowing boundaries to be drawn that in theory show the endpoints of future waves in each direction.

I say “in theory” because sometimes a wave fails to reach the boundary — a condition called truncation — or overshoots the boundary, as happened with rising wave D{-5}, which ended on August 13. Wave E{-5} began on that date and has yet to reach below the upper boundary. The lower boundary is in the 6130s today and declining every moment.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above 7739.25 would strengthen the case that wave A{-6} has ended and wave B{-6} is underway, although considerably more upside movement would be needed for confirmation. A decline below the overnight low of 7696 would strengthen the alternative that wave A{-6} remains underway. The larger analysis is unchanged either way: Falling wave E{-5} continues, with the declining lower boundary of the expanding triangle still far below the present market.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 18, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to slowly stair-step higher in the later stages of the session, reaching into the 7710s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Falling wave A{-6} within wave E{-5} continues. Within it, falling wave A{-7} appears to be unfolding as a five-subwave decline. When wave A{-7} is complete, rising wave B{-7} within wave A{-6} will begin.

Decision Points. The immediate markers remain 7722.25, today’s high, and 7617.50, today’s low. A sustained move above 7722.25 would strengthen the case that wave B{-7} is underway. A move below 7617.50 would favor the interpretation that wave A{-7} continues.

12:30 p.m. New York time

What happened to this morning’s analysis? When I booted up my MacBook Air this morning, ready to analyze the S&P 500 futures, a Google installation brought the Gemini AI into contact with my email. Things went downhill from there. Many programs and services no longer worked properly, including WordPress, the platform I use to post my analyses. It took a while, but I fixed it. Here’s this morning’s analysis, several hours late.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from 7617.50 to 7722.25, then pulled back into the 7680s before bouncing to slightly above 7700.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees no change in the analysis. Falling wave E{-5} and its subwave, falling wave A{-6}, continue. Wave E{-5} is the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that took the form of an expanding triangle and began on October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. The overnight rise has not changed the larger Elliott Wave count. The immediate markers are the overnight high of 7722.25 and low of 7617.50. A sustained move above the high would strengthen the case for a larger countertrend rise within A{-6}; a break below the low would strengthen the case that the decline is resuming.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 17, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures barely budged when the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal-funds target range by 0.25 percentage point, to 3.75%–4.00%. The futures dived sharply a half hour later, when Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh began his news conference and signaled that additional rate increases may follow. As the closing bell approached, the futures had fallen into the 7580s, a large distance from the session high of 7699.

Elliott Wave Theory. Falling wave A{-6} continues, as does its parent, falling wave E{-5}.

Decision Points. The sharp post-FOMC decline has removed the ambiguity between falling wave A{-6} and a possible rising wave B{-6}. The break well below Tuesday’s low supports the conclusion that wave A{-6} remains underway. No new trades will be entered today. The market’s overnight response will provide the next useful evidence as to whether today’s decline continues or begins to retrace.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures began to rise around Tuesday’s closing bell and continued higher overnight, reaching 7689.25 as the opening bell drew near. The price remained well below the prior day’s high of 7701 and above the prior day’s low of 7643.50. The market essentially went nowhere, likely in anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee’s scheduled interest-rate announcement at 2 p.m. ET.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues with the same analysis: Falling wave E{-5} continues. It is the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction taking the form of an expanding triangle that began on October 29, 2025. The subwaves of wave E{-5} remain stuck in an unresolved ambiguity: Either falling wave A{-6} continues, or it has ended and rising wave B{-6} is underway.

Decision Points. The FOMC announcement at 2 p.m. ET is likely to dominate today’s trading. Until then, movement within Tuesday’s range provides little useful information about the Elliott Wave structure. A sustained move below Tuesday’s 7643.50 low would favor the interpretation that wave A{-6} remains underway, while a sustained rise above Tuesday’s 7701 high would add weight to the possibility that wave B{-6} has begun. Neither move by itself would necessarily verify the label.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 o.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 16, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures moved lower during the session, to 7643.50, and then remained in a narrow range, fluctuating between the 7640s and the 7660s as the closing bell drew nearer.

Elliott Wave Theory. Falling wave E{-5} continues. The decline increases the likelihood that wave E{-5} remains in its first of three subwaves, falling wave A{-6}.

Decision Points. A sustained decline below 7643.50 would further strengthen the case that wave A{-6} remains underway. A substantial rise would revive the alternative that wave A{-6} has ended and rising wave B{-6} has begun. Neither scenario has yet been verified.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell for much of overnight, from 7701 to 7645. The futures then recovered, rising into the 7690s, resuming the fall as the opening bell sounded.

What does it mean? The movement has been insufficient to alter how Elliott Wave Theory sees the chart.

Within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle, the final subwave, falling wave E{-5}, is now underway.

At that point, things get less clear. Either the first subwave — falling wave A{-6} — is underway, or that wave has ended and the second subwave — rising wave B{-6} — has begun.

The higher the price rises, the more likely the wave B{-6} scenario becomes, and the lower it declines, the more likely it becomes that wave A{-6} is still underway. The overnight decline initially strengthened the likelihood that wave A{-6} continues, but the subsequent recovery weakened that evidence and left the question unresolved.

Decision Points. A decline below the overnight low of 7645 would strengthen the case that wave A{-6} remains underway. A sustained rise above 7701 would strengthen the alternative that wave A{-6} has ended and wave B{-6} has begun. Neither move by itself would necessarily provide verification. The larger structure is unchanged: falling wave E{-5} remains underway within wave 4{-4}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 15, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reversed from the overnight low, 7661.25, and then began to rise, so far reaching 7719.75.

Elliott Wave Theory. Within declining wave E{-5}, the higher the price rises, the more likely it becomes that the first subwave, falling wave A{-6}, has ended and rising wave B{-6} has begun. So far, however, the rise has been insufficient to justify relabeling the active subwave as wave B{-6}.

Decision Points. The working count therefore remains that falling wave A{-6} is underway within wave E{-5}. A continued rise would strengthen the case that A{-6} has ended and B{-6} has begun, but confirmation is still lacking.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? After an opening gap and a rise to 7701.25 when trading resumed overnight, the S&P 500 E-mini futures reversed, stair-stepping down into the 7660s as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to see falling wave E{-5} as being underway. There is less certainty about which subwave is presently active. The bulk of the movement since wave E{-5} began has been downward, suggesting that wave A{-6} — the first subwave — remains underway. Yet at some point, perhaps sooner or perhaps later, the second subwave will begin. That rising wave B{-6} will carry the price higher, while remaining below the wave E{-5} starting point, 7838.50 on August 13.

All of this is happening within an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, which began on October 29, 2025, and whose boundaries are shown on the chart as blue lines. The prior rising wave D{-5} moved significantly beyond the upper boundary of the triangle, and wave E{-5} has yet to move below it on its journey toward the lower boundary.

Decision Points. The working count remains that wave A{-6} is underway within falling wave E{-5}. A sustained rise could eventually provide evidence that wave A{-6} has ended and rising wave B{-6} has begun, but the overnight rise and reversal provide no such evidence so far.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 14, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com