3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching the 7240s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The session rise has remained above the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle, which is the form taken by wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began last October. The session’s rise from the 7133.75 low now appears to be in its third wave.

The present longer-term rise, wave D{-5}, began on March 30 from 6353.25, so the present session rise within it is quite small compared with the whole. It illustrates that wave D{-5} is still underway, but says nothing about how far that continuing uptrend will continue.

The final subwave within wave 4{-4} still lies in the future.

Decision Points. The morning decision point at 7223.25 has been exceeded, strengthening the case that wave D{-5} is continuing. A sustained move above today’s high would extend that case. A decline back below 7223.25 would weaken the immediate bullish push but would not, by itself, end the D-wave interpretation. The more important warning would be a return to the upper boundary area near 7137. A decisive break below that area would suggest that wave D{-5} may have ended and declining wave E{-5} may have begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures, after dropping to a low of 7131.25 as yesterday’s session neared its end, bounced as overnight trading began, rose slightly above 7200, retreated almost to the prior low, and then bounced again into the 7210s.

What does it mean? The first of the two lows fell slightly below the upper boundary of a large Elliott Wave Theory structure, wave 4{-4}, an Expanding Triangle that began on Oct. 29, 2025. The second low retested that same boundary area. The present smaller wave in progress is the next-to-the-last subwave of that triangle, wave D{-5}.

The upper boundary is formed by a line connecting two peaks in the triangle and then extending that line into the future. The lower boundary connects two lows and extends them. Typically, each peak that follows will encounter resistance when it reaches a boundary.

The dramatic rises and falls overnight look very much like an attempt to break free of the upper boundary. If the attempt succeeds, wave D{-5} continues its rise. If it fails, wave D{-5} ends, and the final subwave within the triangle, declining wave E{-5}, will have begun.

Decision Points. A sustained move above 7223.25, yesterday’s high, would strengthen the case that wave D{-5} is still rising. A decline below 7131.25 would weaken that case and suggest that wave E{-5} may already be underway. Between those levels, the map remains unchanged: wave D{-5} is still the working count, but the futures are testing whether the upper boundary has become support or remains resistance.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 5-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 30, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. After the Federal Open Market Committee announced that it was leaving interest rates unchanged, the S&P 500 futures rapidly fell from the 7160s to 7137.50, and then fluctuated mainly in the 7140s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Notably, the price remained above the upper boundary line of the long-running fourth-wave downward correction that began last autumn and has taken the form of an Expanding Triangle. The present wave within wave 4{-4} is its next-to-the-last subwave, rising wave D{-5}. Given that reality, I shall continue to lean toward seeing the D wave as still underway.

Decision Points. The upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle remains the key line. As long as the price stays above that boundary, rising wave D{-5} can still be counted as incomplete, although today’s post-FOMC decline weakened the case for immediate strength.

A sustained move back above the 7160s would suggest that the decline after the announcement was only a temporary reaction. A move above the overnight high of 7188.50 would strengthen the case that wave D{-5} is still pressing higher. A move above the prior D{-5} high at 7223.25 would be stronger confirmation.

A sustained break below the upper boundary would suggest that wave D{-5} may be ending and that declining wave E{-5} may be preparing to begin. That would not be final proof, but it would mean the map is beginning to change.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 e-mini futures reached a higher high, 7188.50. early in overnight trading and then worked its way lower in the 7188.50 for much of overnight and then fell to the 7150s as the opening bell sounded. The Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate announcement will be at 2 p.m., with departing Fed Chair Jerome Powell holding a news conference at 2:30 p.m.

What does it mean? In Elliott Wave Theory, the wave underway is rising wave D{-5}, a subwave of a downward correction, wave 4{-4}, which began on October 30, 2025.

Wave 4 is taking the form of an Expanding Triangle. Such triangles have five subwaves, each composed of three subwaves. An idea of the turning points can be gained by drawing a line connecting the earlier turning points and extending it into the future as upper and lower boundaries of the triangle.

In this case, wave D{-5} has moved above the upper boundary, slightly, and remains there. I interpret that to mean that the D wave might not be complete yet

Decision Points. The first line to watch is the triangle’s upper boundary, presently near the 7160s. As long as the price remains above or very near that line, rising wave D{-5} can still be counted as incomplete, even if the movement is slow and hesitant.

A sustained move above the overnight high of 7188.50 would strengthen the case that wave D{-5} is still pushing higher. A move above the prior D{-5} high at 7223.25 would be stronger confirmation that the wave has not yet completed.

A sustained drop back below the upper boundary would not by itself prove that wave D{-5} is over, but it would weaken the immediate bullish interpretation. Follow-through below the 7140s would raise the possibility that the market is turning away from the boundary and beginning the transition toward declining wave E{-5}.

Because the FOMC announcement comes at 2 p.m. ET, with Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m., the pre-announcement movement should be treated cautiously. The clearest signal may come not from the first reaction, but from whether the price holds above or below the triangle boundary after the announcement and news conference.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 5-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 29, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to decline during the session, reaching a low of 7146.25, and then rising into the 7160s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The price remains above the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle, the form taken by wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began last autumn. The corrective wave is in its next-to-the-last subwave, rising wave D{-5}.

Decision Points. No change in the map. The upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle remains the line that matters. So long as the price remains above that boundary, rising wave D{-5} remains technically alive, although today’s decline has kept the question open.

A sustained move below the boundary would increase the likelihood that wave D{-5} ended at 7223.25 and that falling wave E{-5} has begun. A move back above 7185 would weaken that case, and a move above 7223.25 would show that wave D{-5} is still extending.

With the FOMC interest-rate decision due Wednesday, the practical trading conclusion remains unchanged: No new entry until after the release.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 e-mini futures after yesterday’s closing bell rose to 7223.25 and then began to fall, reaching 7147.50 as today’s opening bell drew near.

What does it mean? The price at the low point remained above the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle, the form taken by wave 4{-4} when Elliott Wave Theory is applied. The boundary at the low point stood at about 7134.

Wave 4{-4}, a downward correction, began on October 29, 2025, and at this point is well advanced as it works through its fourth subwave, rising wave D{-5}. An Expanding Triangle has five subwaves, and wave D is the fourth.

The triangle boundaries are defined by the highs and lows of prior waves. The boundaries are often the turning points when one subwave ends and the next one begins. Often, but not always. As is often the case in Elliott Wave Theory analysis, the usual pattern taken by a wave is often a suggestion rather than a rule.

If the price remains above the top boundary, I’ll consider wave D{-5} to still be underway. If it falls below the boundary and continues to fall, the likelihood that wave D has ended and falling wave E{-5} is now underway will increase.

Decision Points. The upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle is the key line this morning, standing near 7134 and rising slowly. A decline to the boundary followed by a reversal upward would keep wave D{-5} alive and would suggest that the overnight drop was only another test of support.

A sustained move below the boundary would be the first warning that wave D{-5} may have ended at 7223.25. A continued decline after that break would increase the likelihood that falling wave E{-5} has begun.

On the upside, a move back above 7185 would weaken the bearish case, and a rise above 7223.25 would show that wave D{-5} is still extending. Until one of those tests is resolved, the market remains in the same ambiguity that has defined the structure since mid-April: wave D{-5} may still be pushing higher, but it is doing so at the point where the triangle pattern normally begins to look for a turn.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3;30 p.m., 5-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 28, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time.

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session to within a dollar of the overnight high, then reversed back into the range that has defined today’s movement.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave D{-5} continues, although it has been stuck in ambiguity since April 16. Is there really more upside remaining to the wave? Or has it played out, stuck in a range until the mass opinion reaches an agreement in favor of decline? If it is decline, then wave D{-5} will have ended at the peak, and declining wave E{-5} will begin. In an expanding triangle, wave E{-5} has a high probability of pushing beyond the endpoint of wave C{-5}, which was also wave D{-5}’s starting point, 6353.25.

The lackadaisical drama is playing out within an uncommon Elliott Wave structure, an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. In expanding triangles, by definition, each subwave moves farther than the previous wave moving in that same direction. The line linking the start of subwave A within wave 4{-4} and the end of wave B{-5}, when extended into future time, marks the likeliest upper boundary of the next rising wave, which is the presently underway wave D{-5}. The future falling wave E{-5} has a similar boundary that is the target for its endpoint — a line connecting the end of wave A{-5} and the end of wave C{-5}.

But what does boundary mean? I think of it as a fence. Not a tall one. A farm fence. The kind of fence you might see while driving down a rural highway, intended to keep the cattle from wandering off. But sometimes an animal makes it over the fence, a bull perhaps, and sometimes a few lazy cows don’t even approach the fence. They’re too busy napping.

And so it is with the boundaries on the chart. The price may move beyond one, as is now happening with wave D{-5}, or it may pull up short, ending before it reaches the boundary.

Decision Points. The decision points from this morning’s analysis remain unchanged. A move above 7208.50 would extend wave D{-5}. Continued trade below that level but above the triangle boundary would keep the market in the present waiting pattern. A decline back below the upper boundary, now roughly in the upper 7160s to low 7170s, would be the first sign that D{-5} may have ended and that declining wave E{-5} may be beginning.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 futures reached a new high at 7208.50 during the first few hours of overnight trading, then pulled back into the 7180s. Since then, the futures have fluctuated mainly in the 7180s and 7190s.

That keeps the price above the upper boundary of the expanding triangle that began on October 29, 2025.

What does it mean? In Elliott Wave Theory terms, wave D{-5} within the larger wave 4{-4} expanding triangle remains underway. The overnight high extended the D{-5} rise, but the subsequent pullback has so far been shallow enough to leave the count unchanged.

The main question remains whether this is a temporary push beyond the triangle boundary before wave E{-5} begins, or whether the market is separating far enough above the boundary that the present triangle map will need to be reconsidered.

For now, the map still works. The price is above the boundary, but it has not yet moved far enough away from it to make the expanding-triangle interpretation untenable.

Decision Points. A move above 7208.50 would extend wave D{-5} and keep upward pressure in place. Continued trade in the 7180s and 7190s would leave the market in a waiting pattern, still above the triangle boundary but not yet breaking decisively free. A decline back below the upper boundary, now roughly in the upper 7160s to low 7170s, would be the first sign that D{-5} may have ended and that declining wave E{-5} may be beginning.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 5-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 27, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a slightly higher high at 7200.50, then settled into a narrow sideways movement near the high. The price has not retreated to the Expanding Triangle’s upper boundary, which is presently near 7133.

Elliott Wave Theory. Wave D{-5} remains underway within the larger expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025. The rise continues to press the upper boundary area rather than clearly breaking free of the triangle structure.

Decision Points. The first question is whether price can sustain trade above 7200.50 and extend the rise, or whether this is another marginal high followed by sideways movement or reversal. A turn down from this area would keep the triangle-boundary interpretation intact and raise the odds that wave E{-5} is approaching. A stronger, sustained rise above the current high would keep wave D{-5} alive and force the upper boundary question back onto the table.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to fluctuate sideways, neither rising nor falling to a meaningful degree. It touched a peak, 7190.50, and then withdrew.

What does it mean? In terms of Elliott Wave Theory, the futures are stuck on a line connecting the two completed peaks of an Expanding Diagonal Triangle that began on October 29, 2025 and is now nearing the end of its 4th subwave, rising wave D{-5}. The triangle itself is wave 4{-4}, a downward correction one degree larger than the D wave.

Decision Points. The upper boundary of the triangle, now near 7165–7175, remains the key line. A sustained move above it, especially with follow-through beyond 7189.50, the recent high, would signal that wave D{-5} is still pushing higher and may be nearing its final extreme. Failure to hold above the boundary, followed by a decline back into the body of the triangle and below 7125, would favor the alternative: that wave D{-5} has ended and declining wave E{-5} is underway. A further break below 7075 would strengthen that interpretation and confirm that the next leg of the correction is in progress.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 5-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 24, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. In Elliott Wave Theory terms, the S&P 500 futures remain within rising wave D{-5}, pressing once again against the upper boundary of the expanding triangle that began last October.

Over the current session and the four preceding sessions, the price has broken above that boundary several times, only to retreat. The pattern has been one of repeated tests without follow-through, and the market may now be attempting another such breakout.

The question remains unresolved. Will wave D{-5} finally break free of the triangle’s boundary and continue higher? Or, as is more typical of triangles, will it respect that boundary, turn, and begin the next phase, declining wave E{-5}?

Decision Points. The recent highs in the 7180–7186 range mark the key area of resistance at the upper boundary. A sustained move above that zone would argue that wave D{-5} is extending beyond the usual limits of the triangle and that the current count needs to be reconsidered. Failure in that area, followed by a move back below 7120, would support the view that wave D{-5} has ended and that declining wave E{-5} is underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures dithered mainly above the 7120s overnight.

What does it mean? The price is paused at a line connecting the peaks of the uptrending subwave within a falling correction, wave 4{-4}. Elliott Wave Theory finds that such lines connecting the subwave ending and beginning prices offer a rough boundary as the parent wave plays out.

In this case, wave 4{-4} began on October 29, 2025. The upper line connects the starting points of subwaves A{-5} and C{-5}. The lower line connects the ending points of waves A{-5} and C{-5}. At the least, the lines connecting those endpoints tend to be where waves pause in their journeys. Quite often, in my experience, the lines define reversals, where one directional trend changes to another.

So at this point wave D{-5} is paused at the upper line as public mood tries to figure out what all of the public drama of our time really means. If the mood lands on the bullish side, then wave D{-5} continues its rise. If bearish, then it ends, possibly near the upper line, and declining wave E{-5} begins.

When I first began to do daily analyses of the S&P 500 futures, during the Covid-19 Pandemic, an expanding triangle was underway, and I found connecting the prior turning points was a useful way of understanding the future turning points.

And as always, there’s a caveat. Sometimes a price rise or fall breaks free of its seeming restraints, rising well beyond a presumed boundary line. Not often, but it happens.

Decision Points. The upper boundary line, now in the 7165–7190 range depending on the exact touchpoint, is the key level. A sustained move above it would argue that wave D{-5} is extending beyond the usual limits of the triangle and that the current count needs to be reconsidered. Failure at or just below that line, followed by a break back beneath 7125, would favor the view that wave D{-5} has ended and that declining wave E{-5} is underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 5-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 23, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a session peak of 7166.25. The price fell from that level into the 7140s. Basically, the futures barely budged.

Elliott Wave Theory. Wave D{-5} remains underway. The entire rise reached a peak of 7185.75 on April 17, and today’s high, rounded up to the whole dollar, reached 20 points below that level before pulling back.

I’ve pulled the chart back to the long view, in part to see the size of the recent market movements compared to the entirety of the parent wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 from 6954.76. In terms of size, the recent drama in the futures have been like the scratching of a cockroach on a large kitchen floor. Noticeable, but without directional clarity for wave D{-5}.

As has been mentioned many times before, wave 4{-4} is taking the form of an expanding triangle, where each wave extends beyond the previous wave in its respective direction.

One trick of the trade in Elliott Wave Theory for understanding the likely endpoints of subwaves in expanding triangles is to connect the start of subwave A and the start of subwave C with a line, and do the same with the end of subwave A and the end of subwave C. Each line continues on, each providing a likely turning point for wave D and E within the expanding triangle. Sometimes the price moves a significant distance beyond the line. Sometimes it comes up short. Most of the time, in my experience, the turn occurs close to the line.

On this chart, the upper line is where the rise of wave D has stalled in the last few days. If wave E takes the same time in its downward journey as wave D took in its rise, the end of wave E and of the wave 4 corrective pattern will occur at around the 6300 level.

Decision Points.
A sustained move above 7185.75 would indicate that wave D{-5} is extending higher and has not yet reached its end.

Failure to break that level, combined with continued hesitation beneath it, keeps open the possibility that wave D{-5} is nearing completion along the upper boundary of the triangle.

On the downside, a break below the recent consolidation range in the 7120–7130 area would be an early indication that the market is resolving lower. A more decisive move below 7090 would begin to confirm that wave E{-5} is underway.

Bottom line: Price is pressing against the upper boundary of the expanding triangle but has not broken through. Until either 7185.75 gives way or downside levels begin to fail, the market remains in a holding pattern at a structurally important location.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures stair-stepped higher overnight, from a low of 7121.25 shortly after the closing bell on Tuesday to a high of 7157.25.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory places this rise within wave D{-5}, a rising subwave of wave 4{-4}, a larger downtrending correction that began on October 28, 2025. Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, with five subwaves labeled A through E, each composed of three smaller waves.

There is, however, a lack of clarity in the current structure. One interpretation is that wave D{-5} ended on April 17 at 7185.75, and that declining wave E{-5} has already begun.

Yet the price action since that high does not convincingly support that view. Compared with the full advance of wave D{-5} from 6353.25, the pullback so far is shallow and tentative. It does not yet resemble the kind of sustained decline that would be expected if wave E{-5} were underway and ultimately headed toward the 6300s or lower.

This creates a conundrum: the wave count allows for the start of E{-5}, but the price behavior does not yet confirm it. As a result, both possibilities remain in play. The market is, for now, moving sideways within that uncertainty.

Decision Points. 

• 7185.75 (April 17 high): A sustained move above this level would strongly suggest that wave D{-5} is still in progress and extending higher, invalidating the immediate start of wave E{-5}.
• 7157–7160 area (overnight high): Short-term resistance. Repeated failure here would reinforce the idea of a maturing or exhausted advance.
• 7120–7130 area: Near-term support. A break below this range would signal that the current sideways structure is resolving downward.
• 7090–7100 area: A decisive move below this level would begin to shift the weight of evidence toward wave E{-5} being underway, especially if followed by continued lower lows.
• Bottom line: Price remains range-bound beneath the April 17 high. A break above that high favors continued upside within D{-5}; a sustained move below 7090 would begin to confirm the transition to E{-5}. Until one of those levels gives way, the market is marking time rather than declaring direction.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 5-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 22, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell sharply during the session, reaching 7096.75 after peaking overnight at 7183. A rebound then carried the price back into the 7130s, but that rise faded and the decline resumed.

Elliott Wave Theory. The overnight high fell just short of Monday’s peak at 7185.75, and the sharp reversal that followed strongly suggests that rising wave D{-5} has reached its end. If that is the case, then declining wave E{-5} is now underway. Wave E{-5} is expected to be the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, the expanding triangle correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Why “expected to be”? Sometimes a correction takes a complex path, containing two or three corrective patterns within it. So if the encompassing corrective parent wave, 4{-4}, turns out to be complex, we may have some time to go before the 4th-wave correction reaches its end.

In expanding triangles, each subwave moves beyond the price that ended the prior subwave heading in the same direction. In this case, wave C{-5} ended on March 30 at 6353.25. How much beyond that will wave E{-5} decline? No way to tell. If it moves one point — 25 cents — beyond that level, it has fulfilled the requirement of Elliott Wave Theory and can go to rest. Or it can move a significant distance beyond.

Decision Points. A recovery above 7150–7160 would suggest that the decline is not yet firmly established and could lead to further choppy trading. A move above 7185.75 would invalidate the view that wave D{-5} has ended and would point to further upside. On the downside, a break below today’s low at 7096.75 would strengthen the case that wave E{-5} is underway, with further declines likely to follow.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued rising overnight, from a low reached right after Monday’s closing bell, to a high of 7183, attained as Tuesday’s session approached the opening bell. The price then retreated rapidly back into the 7160 and then further, into the 7140s, minutes after the opening bell.

What does it mean? The high is $2.75 below Monday’s peak since wave D{-5} began on March 30. The rising wave remains underway, although it appears to be nearing its end.

Wave D{-5} is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle. In that structure, each subwave, A through E, unfolds in three parts. Wave D{-5} will therefore be followed by declining wave E{-5}, which will carry wave 4{-4} to its conclusion.

Decision Points. A move above 7185.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} continues to rise and allow for further, likely limited, gains. Repeated failure in the 7180–7185 range would suggest that the wave is nearing completion. A decline below 7145–7150 would provide the first indication that wave E{-5} to the downside may be underway, with a break below 7100 offering stronger confirmation that the trend has turned.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 21, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, although tentatively, reaching into the 7140s. The peak so far in the rise that began on March 30 remains 7185.75, set on Friday, April 17.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis remains unchanged from this morning. As the Earthling Valentine Michael Smith, raised by Martians after the spacecraft upon which he was born crashed in Robert Heinlein’s 1961 masterwork Stranger in a Strange Land would say, “Waiting is.”

Decision Points. The market remains within the same decision range identified this morning. A move above 7185.75 would confirm that the upward leg is continuing. A decline below 7085, today’s opening low, would argue that the rise has ended and that the next downward leg is underway. Between those levels, the price action remains inconclusive.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures resumed trading with an opening gap that carried the price from Friday’s high at 7185.75 down to a low of 7085 in the first five minutes of trading Monday. The price then rose modestly into the 7110s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis suggests that rising wave D{-5} is still underway. However, additional upward movement is needed to confirm that interpretation.

Wave D{-5} is the next-to-the-last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. That fourth wave has taken the form of an expanding triangle, in which each advancing wave rises above the prior peak and each declining wave falls below the prior low.

Decision Points. The key question is whether the market can resume the upward path required to complete wave D{-5}. A move above 7185.75, Friday’s high, would confirm that the uptrend remains intact and that wave D{-5} is extending higher. Failure to reach that level, followed by a decline below the overnight low near 7085, would argue that wave D{-5} has already peaked and that the next downward leg of the triangle is underway. Between those levels, the price action remains indeterminate, with the market marking time rather than signaling direction.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 20, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures has risen to 7185.75 during the session, a higher peak in the uptrend that began on March 30 from 6353.75. It then fell back slightly, to the 7150s.

Elliott Wave Theory: Wave D{-5} continues to rise, with no clear sign of completion. .

Decision Points: A continued move above today’s high at 7185.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} is still advancing. On the downside, a break below the recent support zone in the 7040s would be the first indication that the advance has ended and that wave E{-5} may be underway. Until then, the upward trend remains intact.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise overnight from yesterday’s session low at 7047.50, reaching into the 7130s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis continues to label the advance as wave D{-5}, the fourth subwave of an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, that began on March 30. In this formation, each subwave exceeds the extreme of the prior wave moving in the same direction.

Each subwave subdivides into three waves. The current advance has been strong enough that its internal structure lacks clarity at lower degrees. Tentatively, the rise appears to be in wave C{-6}. If that labeling holds, completion of C{-6} would also complete D{-5}, setting the stage for declining wave E{-5}.

An alternate interpretation remains viable: the entire advance from March 30 could instead be a larger wave A{-6}. At present, price action has not forced a distinction between these counts.

Decision Points. The immediate question is whether the current rise is nearing completion as wave D{-5}, or whether it is part of a larger and still-unfolding advance.

On the upside, a sustained move above 7147.50 — the current overnight high — would argue that wave D{-5} is still extending, with no clear sign yet of a transition into wave E{-5}. Continued strength above that level keeps the upward path open.

On the downside, a break back below 7047.50 — yesterday’s session low and the start of the latest leg up — would be the first indication that the advance has ended and that wave E{-5} may be underway.

From a broader perspective, failure to produce a clear three-wave structure at lower degrees, combined with continued upward extension, would increasingly favor the alternate count: that the entire move is a larger wave A{-6}, not a subwave within a triangle.

Until one of these levels is decisively exceeded, the market remains within the ambiguity typical of late-stage triangle development.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} (none), 4/1/2026, 6767 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 17, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com