9:40 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures remained overnight within a narrow range, much as it had the day before. The price fluctuated between the 6630s and the 6680s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis is unchanged from Tuesday. Declining wave B{-7} is underway. It is a subwave of rising wave B{-6}, which is a subwave of falling wave C{-5}. Encompassing all is wave 4{-4}, a downward correction.

Decision points: A sustained rise above 6682 would strengthen the case that rising wave B{-6} is extending, opening the way toward a retest of the March 23 high near 6748. A break below 6634 would suggest that declining wave B{-7} is continuing, with lower levels in the 6610 area and possibly the mid-6500s coming into view.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 90-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/22/2026, 6483.50 (up}
• B{-7} (none), 3/23/2026, 6748 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 25, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traded within a range during the session, reaching a low of 6573.50 and a high of about 6646. The contract continued to fluctuate between those levels into the afternoon.

Elliott Wave Theory: Falling wave B{-7} appears to be continuing. This wave is a subwave of rising wave B{-6}, which in turn is part of the larger decline in wave C{-5}. Together, these degrees form part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

The structure remains unresolved, suggesting that further sideways movement or additional subdivision may occur before the next directional move develops.

9:40 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell from the 6650s to the 6580s and then rose again into the 6650s, thereafter declining once more, back into the 6590s. The contract has remained well below Monday’s peak at 6748 and well above Monday’s low at 6483.50.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory applied to the decline that began on January 27 remains ambiguous. The issue is one of duration.

Under the theory, waves of the same degree tend to take roughly similar amounts of time to unfold. This is not an unbreakable rule, but rather a recurring tendency that often helps in judging degree.

The decline from January 27 appears to mark the start of wave C{-5} and its subwave A{-6}, which ended on March 22. The question is how to label the rise that followed.

One possibility is that the rise marked the start and completion of wave B{-6}. But that interpretation would imply that a {-6}-degree wave lasting nearly two months was followed by another wave of the same degree lasting only a single day — an inelegant proportion.

The labeling used here instead treats A{-6} as ending on March 22 and sees rising wave B{-6} as still underway. The sharp one-day advance is counted as subwave A{-7}, with wave B{-7} now in progress.

An alternative interpretation — and one that could still develop — is that wave A{-7} remains incomplete. Under that view, the one-day advance would be only wave A{-8}, and the subsequent decline would be wave B{-8}.

As always with Elliott Wave Theory, the structure will become clearer with time.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/22/2026, 6483.50 (up}
• B{-7} (none), 3/23/2026, 6748 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 24, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures peaked early in the session at 6748 and reversed, retracing back to 6615. At present it risen back in the 6660s

Elliott Wave Theory: The early rally appears to have completed subwave A{-7} of rising wave B{-6}. The subsequent pullback is likely subwave B{-7} within that same corrective rise. If this interpretation is correct, another upward push in subwave C{-7} would be expected before wave B{-6} itself reaches completion.Elliott Wave Theory: The movement would appear the declining B{-7} subwave within rising wave B{-6}.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reversed overnight, rising from 6483.50 into the 6740s.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory layout is as follows: Falling wave A{-6}, which began on January 27, 2026, from 7043, ended overnight, and rising wave B{-6} began. Both are subwaves of declining wave C{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, which, when complete, will have five subwaves.

In Elliott Wave terms, the expanding triangle now under discussion is the structure at degree {-5}, meaning its five legs are labeled A{-5}, B{-5}, C{-5}, D{-5} and E{-5}. Each of those legs is itself a corrective wave, and corrective waves usually break down into smaller internal subwaves at the next lower degree, here {-6}. That is why the current decline can be labeled A{-6} and the rebound B{-6} within the larger wave C{-5}: the {-5} degree defines the triangle itself, while the {-6} degree describes the internal structure of each triangle leg. In practical terms, the market is not yet in the final leg of the triangle. It is still moving through the internal subdivisions of wave C{-5}.

A caveat: Wave B{-6} appears to be underway, but a rapid reversal and a decline to a new low would mean that wave A{-6} has not yet ended and that wave B{-6} still lies ahead.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/22/2026, 6481.50 (down}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 23, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, breaking below the previous low reached in the decline that began on January 27 from 7043.

Elliott Wave Theory. The move below the March 8 low indicates that the downward leg at the next lower degree remains incomplete. Falling wave A{-6} is therefore still underway, and the anticipated corrective rebound in rising wave B{-6} has not yet begun. The wave labeling has been revised to reflect this continued extension of the decline.

This interpretation remains consistent with the broader view that the market has been developing a large corrective pattern since late October 2025, likely wave 4{-4} taking the form of an expanding triangle. Under this framework, the ongoing weakness represents the continuation of wave C{-5} within that larger structure.

As always, the wave count will be refined as price action provides further confirmation.

Decision Points: Further decline below today’s session low would confirm that falling wave A{-6} is still extending and that the corrective rebound in wave B{-6} has not yet begun.

A recovery above the most recent internal swing high would be the first indication that wave A{-6} may be complete and that wave B{-6} is underway.

A sustained move that develops clear impulsive upward structure rather than overlapping swings would strengthen the case that the market is transitioning into the next corrective phase within the larger expanding-triangle framework.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight, so far reaching a low of 6607.75.

What does it mean? Recent price behavior has prompted an Elliott Wave Theory reassessment of the larger structure unfolding since late October 2025.

The market’s action during this period has been characterized by persistent overlap, widening price swings, and repeated failures of directional follow-through. These features are not typical of an advancing impulsive trend at the {-4} degree. Instead, they are more consistent with a large corrective phase.

Under the revised interpretation, the advance into October 29, 2025 is treated as the completion of wave 3{-4}. The movement since then is viewed as wave 4{-4}, likely developing as an expanding triangle. This pattern is consistent with the broadening volatility and unstable directional character that have dominated trading in recent months.

Within this structure, the decline into November 21, 2025 is labeled wave A{-5}, while the complex advance culminating on January 27, 2026 is labeled wave B{-5}. The market’s action since late January is treated as wave C{-5}, which remains in progress.

The initial phase of this decline appears to have ended on March 8 at 6584.50, marking the completion of wave A{-6}. Price behavior since that date is interpreted as the development of wave B{-6}, a corrective advance that may still be unfolding. The choppy, overlapping swings seen in recent sessions are consistent with the internal complexity typically associated with B-waves at this degree.

If this interpretation is correct, further sideways volatility or rally attempts remain possible before a final downward leg — wave C{-6} — completes the larger wave C{-5} decline. Such a sequence would remain consistent with the expanding triangle framework and would preserve proportionality across the wave hierarchy.

This revised structure better reflects the broadening nature of recent trading while allowing for continued sharp rallies and declines within the ongoing corrective phase. As always, the wave count will be refined as price action provides additional confirmation.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• A{-6} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 20, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traded within a relatively narrow range during much of the session, fluctuating between the 6650s and the 6610s, and then rapidlu rose in into the 6690s as the closing bell approached.

Elliott Wave Theory: Downtrending wave 3{-5} continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight to the 6610s and continued the decline.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis has rules that cannot be broken. When a rule is broken, the chart no longer matches reality — the map no longer matches the territory and must be redrawn.

The new map: Rising corrective wave 2{-5} ended on March 17 at 6814. Downtrending wave 3{-5} is now underway. The break below 6625 invalidated the prior wave B{-6} interpretation and confirms that the larger downtrend has resumed.

An alternative interpretation would label wave 2{-5} as taking the form of an expanding flat. The wave-3 scenario is the more straightforward reading of the price action and is therefore the principal analysis.

Early wave-3 environments often produce persistent downward pressure with only brief, overlapping rallies. A sustained break below 6623 would signal continuation toward lower support zones, while a recovery above the mid-to-upper 6600s would suggest the decline is pausing to subdivide before the larger trend resumes.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 3{-5} Micro, 3/17/2026, 6814 (down}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 19, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. After a steep fall from the overnight high of 6814, the S&P 500 futures declined into the 6690s. When the Federal Open Market Committee later announced that it was holding interest rates steady, the price reaction was muted.

Elliott Wave Theory: The day’s movement strengthens the scenario that declining wave B{-6}, the middle subwave within the upward correction wave 2{-5}, is underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to an overnight high of 6814 and then fell sharply into the 6730s after the release of the Producer Price Index, which showed a 0.7% rise in February, the largest monthly increase since August 2023. The Federal Open Market Committee will publish its interest-rate decision at 2 p.m. New York time. The price rose slightly as the opening bell sounded.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis supports the view that rising wave A{-6} ended at the overnight high and that falling wave B{-6} began there.

Wave B{-6} is the middle subwave of wave 2{-5}, an upward correction that began on March 13. Like all B waves, it will subdivide into three waves.

The sharp decline following the PPI release increases confidence that declining wave B{-6} has begun. However, because the move was news-driven and the Federal Reserve decision later today remains a dominant catalyst, this interpretation should still be treated as provisional pending confirmation through continued failure to reclaim the recent high.

Decision Points

A continued failure below the 6810 area would support the view that wave A{-6} ended there and that declining wave B{-6} is underway.

A break below the morning low near 6741 would strengthen the bearish near-term case and suggest that B{-6} is extending downward.

A sustained rebound back above 6810 would weaken the B{-6} count and require reconsideration of whether wave A{-6} is still incomplete or the correction is taking a more complex form.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 2{-5} Micro, 3/13/2026, 6625 (up}
  • B{-6} Submicro, 3/17/2026, 6814 (down}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 18, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 traded in a narrow range during the session. The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its interest rate decision tomorrow — Wednesday — and it’s not unusual for the market to go into wait-and-see mode in the run-up to the announcement.

Elliott Wave Theory: Wave A{-6} and its parent, wave 2{-5}, continue to rise.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to a low of 6715.75 overnight and then began to rise, reaching the 6800 as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on March 13 as continuing to work through its first subwave, wave A. On the chart, with degrees in curly brackets showing the distance from Intermediate degree, the waves are marked as wave A{-6} within wave 2{-5} continues. Both are risng waves.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 2{-5} Micro, 3/13/2026, 6625 (up}
  • A{-6} Submicro, 3/13/2026, 6625 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 17, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a session high in the 6780s after a slight pullback as the closing bell approached.

Elliott Wave Theory continues to favor the view that an upward correction, wave 2{-5}, is underway following Friday’s low. and is advancing in the first of three subwaves, rising wave A{-6}.

The intraday pullback from an earlier session high in the 6770s as orderly rather than impulsive, which is consistent with a developing corrective structure rather than a renewed decline. However, confirmation of the corrective scenario still depends on the market’s ability to hold above key support levels and avoid a decisive break of Friday’s low.

Decision Points

• 6785–6810: Initial resistance zone. A sustained move into this area would strengthen the interpretation that wave A{-6} is still unfolding.
• 6825–6860: Higher corrective target region. Reaching this zone would strongly support the view that wave 2{-5} is progressing normally.
• 6720–6740: Near-term support. Continued holding above this area would favor further corrective strength.
• 6695: A break below this level would weaken the preferred count and suggest that upward momentum is fading.
• 6625: A decisive decline below Friday’s low would invalidate the corrective interpretation and confirm that the broader downtrend remains in force.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened at 6656, a 31-point gap above Friday’s close at 6625. The rally continued overnight, reaching into the 6750s as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory favors the view that Friday’s closing low marked the end of declining wave 5{-7}, its parent wave 5{-6}, and the larger wave that encompasses both, wave 1{-5}.

An upward correction, wave 2{-5}, now appears to be underway, internally rising in wave A{-6}.

As is often the case after a sharp reversal, this interpretation remains the preferred count rather than a confirmed conclusion. A renewed decline that breaks below 6625 would revive the view that wave 5{-7} is still in progress.

Decision Points

• 6785–6810: Likely resistance. A stall here would suggest wave A{-6} is nearing completion.
• 6825–6860: Higher corrective target. A sustained move into this zone would strengthen the case that wave 2{-5} is unfolding normally.
• 6720–6740: Initial support. Holding above this area would favor continued corrective strength.
• 6695: A break below would weaken the preferred count.
• 6625: A decisive decline below Friday’s low would invalidate the corrective scenario and confirm that the downtrend continues.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 2{-5} Micro, 3/13/2026, 6625 (up}
  • A{-6} Submicro, 3/13/2026, 6625 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 16, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, reaching a new low at 6634.50 after breaking below the overnight low.

Elliott Wave Theory: Falling wave 5{-7} continues. It is the final subwave of declining wave 5{-6}. When wave 5{-7} ends, wave 5{-6} will also end, and that will begin an upward corrective phase, wave 2{-5}.

Decision Points: The futures have broken below the overnight low at 6640, keeping the downward trend intact. A further decline would strengthen the case that wave 5{-7} is still extending, with the next Fibonacci target near 6605. A recovery back above 6640 would weaken the immediate bearish pressure, though stronger evidence of reversal would require a larger rebound.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, working its way from a low of 6640 to the 6710s and then rose sharply to 6725.25, quickly retreating.

What does it mean? As always with a rapid reversal, the chart poses an Elliott Wave Theory question. In this case, the question is whether the overnight low marked the end of declining wave 5{-7} or if that wave, which began on March 10 from 6852, is still underway.

Absent evidence to the contrary, I’ve labeled the chart to show that 5th wave is not yet complete.

Likelihood: The sharp rejection at 6725 argues the bounce is still corrective for now. Certainty: Only a break below 6640 or a sustained move above 6725 will resolve whether wave 5{-7} is complete.

Decision Points. 

• 6725.25 (overnight spike high) — A sustained move above this level would strengthen the case that wave 5{-7} ended at 6640 and that a larger upward correction or new impulse is underway.
• 6710–6715 zone — This is the immediate intraday balance / pivot area. Holding above it favors continued recovery attempts; repeated failure here would suggest the rally is only corrective.
• 6640 (overnight low) — A decisive break below this level would confirm that declining wave 5{-7} is still underway, opening the door to new lows in the 6600s or below.
• 6758.50 (prior wave reference level) — Recovery above this area would materially improve the bullish structural case by signaling trend change at one lower degree.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 2/25/2026, 6983.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 3/1/2026, 6852 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 13, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closng bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, reaching a low of 6684.50, rose back into the 6720s, and then resumed the decline.

Elliott Wave Theory: Downtrending wave 5[-7} continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight from 6769.50 to 6705.75, then rebounded into the 6750s before resuming their decline.

What does it mean? There is no change in the Elliott Wave interpretation. Downtrending wave 5{-7} remains underway. The overnight low may prove to be the end of its initial subwave — wave 1{-8} — but the structure is not yet clear enough to confirm that labeling.

Decision Points. A sustained move below 6705 would strengthen the case that a larger third subwave within declining wave 5{-7} is beginning. Conversely, a recovery above roughly 6765 would suggest that the market is still working through a sideways corrective phase before the next decisive decline. A break below the mid-6600s would likely confirm that downside momentum is expanding.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 2/25/2026, 6983.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 3/1/2026, 6852 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 12, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com