3:30 p.m. New York time
Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell with increasing force through the session, approaching 7400after peaking earlier in the week at 7632.25.
Elliott Wave Theory. The decline is the strongest evidence so far that rising wave D{-5} may have ended and that declining wave E{-5} may have begun. The distance covered is still small compared with the full rise of wave D{-5}, which began on March 30 at 6353.25, and the price remains well above the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle. Even so, the speed and persistence of the decline make the question more urgent: Will the price turn back upward and challenge the 7630s and beyond, keeping D{-5} alive? Or will it continue lower, with each additional decline strengthening the argument that E{-5} is underway?
Decision Points. A recovery back toward the 7630s would keep rising wave D{-5} as the primary count. A continued decline would strengthen the case for declining wave E{-5}. The working confirmation remains a break back below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle; until then, E{-5} is a serious possibility, but not yet the confirmed primary count.
9:35 a.m. New York time
What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures began to fall hours before the Employment Situation Report was released, declining from 7578.75. Immediately after the report’s release, the price spiked briefly and then resumed the pre-existing decline, appr.
What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory leaves the analysis unchanged. The decline is a warning sign, but it is not yet deep enough to say that rising wave D{-5} has ended. Rising wave D{-5} remains the primary count.
Decision Points. A sustained recovery would support the view that D{-5} remains underway. A continued decline would increase the warning that D{-5} may be ending, but the working confirmation remains a break back below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle. Until that happens, declining wave E{-5} remains a possibility rather than the primary count.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]
Waves Now Underway
These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
- S&P 500 Index:
- 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
- 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
- 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
- 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
- 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
- 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
- S&P 500 E-mini futures
- 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
- 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
- D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
- C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his bookScience and Sanity(1933), “Themapis not theterritory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 5, 2026
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.
Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.
Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.
All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
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