9:49 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell further overnight, a downward journey that began on October 6. The overnight low was 7322.25.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory. Underway is wave E{-5}, the final wave of an expanding triangle that began on October 29, 2025. The triangle is the form taken by wave 4{-4}.

A trick of the trade in dealing with expanding triangles is to draw a line on the chart connecting the end points of the first two rising subwaves , and another line connecting the ends of the first two falling waves. The lines, extended into the future, form a boundary of sorts, where future waves are likely to end.

Although some crash beyond the boundary, as was the case with rising wave D{-5}, which rose significantly beyond the upper boundary.

Overnight, falling wave E{-5} fell below the upper boundary, to 7322.25, and then bounced up a little. In theory, it will moved below the boundary, and continue to fall until it reaches the lower boundary.

Here’s a chart from October 6 showing the entire triangle.

Decision Points.

The immediate question is whether the overnight low of 7322.25 marks the end of a smaller declining subwave within wave E-5.

A rise from that low would indicate an upward correction within the larger decline. A renewed fall below 7322.25 would extend the decline and strengthen the expectation that wave E-5 will continue toward the lower boundary of the expanding triangle.

A sustained reversal upward would require a reassessment of the smaller subwave count, but would not by itself invalidate the larger expanding triangle.

The Chart. The current chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 6, 2026.

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued falling during the session, reaching into the 7380s.

Elliott Wave Theory: Wave C within a downward correction is underway. It is the final subwave. When it is complete, an uptrending wave with five subwaves will begin.

These are relatively small waves, buried within the larger wave A{-6}, the first subwave of wave E{-5}. Wave E{-5} is the final subwave within wave 4{-4}, the expanding triangle that has dominated the S&P 500 charts since October 29, 2025.

The larger declining wave E{-5} remains underway regardless of the smaller upward correction that follows.

Decision Points

The session low at 7388.00 is the immediate downside reference. A move below it would extend the declining C wave.

A sustained rise above the session low, followed by a recognizable five-subwave advance, would provide evidence that wave C has ended and the next upward wave has begun.

9:41 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight from 7694.25 to 7738.75, and then fell to the 7630s.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees a continuation of rising wave B within a downward correction.

Could wave B have ended? I think not. A B wave has three subwaves. So far, there have been two. I expect to see a rise above wave B’s current high before the wave reaches its end.

The correction is several degrees below wave A{-6}, the initial subwave within wave E{-5}, the final subwave of a large expanding triangle that began on October 29, 2025. The triangle is wave 4{-4}, a downward correction.

The nature of an expanding triangle is that each rising subwave rises higher than the preceding one, and each falling subwave falls lower. Wave E{-5} is a falling wave. If it follows the typical pattern, it has a long downward journey ahead.

Decision Points. A rise above 7738.75 would support the conclusion that wave B remains underway and is progressing toward its final high.

A decline below 7694.25 would weaken that interpretation and raise the possibility that wave B has already ended.

A move above 7819.50, the October 29 high, would invalidate the current count of a declining C wave from that peak.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 5, 2026.

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 a.m. New York time.

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching 7746.25.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave B continues. It is the middle subwave of a downward correction several degrees deep within wave A{-6}. That wave is the first subwave within wave E{-5}, the final subwave of an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has been underway since October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. The rise remains wave B so long as the structure of the larger decline remains intact. A move above 7819.50 would invalidate the present placement of this correction within the falling C wave. Once wave B ends, falling wave C should carry the futures below the wave A low at 7490.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight to 7490 and then reversed, rising into the 7680s.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory: Falling wave E{-5} continues, as does its subwave, declining wave A{-6}.

The downward correction we’re tracking closely, several degrees smaller, has completed its falling subwave A, and rising subwave B has begun.

The parent corrective wave has three subwaves, A, B and C. Once rising wave B ends, falling wave C will complete the structure.

Decision Points.

The beginning of the smaller wave A marks the upper boundary for wave B. A rise above that level would invalidate the immediate corrective count.

The end of wave B will mark the beginning of falling wave C. A decline below 7490 would provide evidence that wave C is underway, although the internal five-wave structure will be needed to establish its progress.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 4, 2026.

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching 7623.75, and then dropped back slightly below 7600. There they lingered.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis remains unchanged.. Falling wave E{-5} continues, as does the downward correction that began on October 6. Within that correction, a declining C wave remains underway.

Decision Points. The session’s rise has not altered the downward wave count. A move below today’s low of 7546 would extend the decline. A move above 7623.75 would suggest that the upward correction has further to run, but would not by itself invalidate the larger downward count.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 3, 2026.

---

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

9:50 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply overnight as the session’s opening bell approached, reaching 7604.75, then falling into the 7570s.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory’s analysis remains unchanged. Falling wave E{-5} continues. It is the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, which began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Within wave E{-5}, the final subwave, wave C{-6}, is underway. At present, our analysis is focused on a declining C wave that began on October 6.

Decision Points. Theovernight decline reached 7546, establishing a new low in the correction. A further decline below that level would strengthen the interpretation that the falling C wave remains underway.

A rise above the overnight high of 7604.75 would signal a stronger upward correction within the decline, but would not invalidate the larger wave count.

A rise above 7819.50, the October 29 high, would invalidate the interpretation that the current declining C wave began at that point and require a reassessment of its internal structure.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 3, 2026.

---

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session to 7693.75 and then turned, rapidly dropping into the 7580s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline that began last week is an A wave within the falling C wave. The rise that followed is wave B within the larger C wave, and the resumed decline is a C wave within a C wave.

A C wave has five subwaves, so we can expect a second upward correction within the larger C wave before its final fall.

Decision Points. The overnight low of 7558.25 remains the immediate downside reference point. A decline below that level would extend the falling C wave.

The session high of 7693.75 provides an upside reference point. A move above it would require a reassessment of the smaller wave count, but would not by itself invalidate the larger declining structure.

The next upward correction will be a fourth subwave within the smaller C wave, followed by a fifth subwave to complete it.

9:38 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures resumed trading with a sharp fall to 7558.25, followed by a rebound. The rebound reached an overnight high so far of 7662 as the opening bell approaches.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory: Falling wave C continues, buried several degrees deep within wave A{-6}, the initial subwave of falling wave E{-5}, the final subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Wave 4{-4} began on October 29, 2025.

Neither the sharp decline nor the subsequent rebound changes the Elliott Wave count.

Decision Points. The overnight low of 7558.25 is the immediate reference point for the decline. A move below that level would extend wave C and establish a new low in the correction.

The rebound to 7662 establishes a near-term reference point in the opposite direction. A rise above that level would extend the recovery but would not, by itself, invalidate the existing wave count.

The larger downward structure remains intact.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 2, 2026.

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m.. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, reaching into the 7560s.

Using Elliott Wave Theory, the decline strengthens the conclusion that wave C is underway within the downward correction that began on October 6. The correction is part of the much larger declining wave E{-5}, the final wave within an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. The starting point of wave C, Wednesday’s high of 7819.50, remains the invalidation level. A rise above that level would require a revision of the present count.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures worked their way both higher and lower overnight, stairstepping up to the 7690s, then working their way lower to the 7660s.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory: Wave E{-5} continues its downward journey as the final wave within an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Buried deep within wave E{-5} are the waves we’re now tracking, a falling C wave within a downward correction that began on October 6.

Decision Points. The immediate downside reference is 7648.50, the October 23 low. A decline below that level would confirm that wave C is extending the correction into new lows.

A sustained rise above 7819.50, Wednesday’s peak and the starting point of wave C, would invalidate the present count of that wave.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 30, 2026

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time.

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, reaching into the 7720s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Within the falling wave we’ve been tracking, declining wave C has begun. Rising wave B ended at Wednesday’s peak, 7819.50, which marks the starting point of wave C.

The decline is part of the larger downward correction, wave E{-5}, the final wave within an expanding triangle that began on October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. A sustained decline below the October 23 low of 7648.50 would provide further confirmation that wave C is advancing. A rise above 7819.50 would invalidate the present count of wave C beginning at Wednesday’s high.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight, reaching into the 7740s following the release of the GDP and PCE reports at 8:30 a.m. The initial response was relatively mild, with prices briefly rising before resuming their decline.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the movement as part of a rising B wave within declining wave E{-5}, the final wave of an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025.

The overnight decline is a smaller corrective wave within B. The price movement so far provides no reason to change the Elliott wave count.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above the overnight highs would support continuation of the B-wave advance. A decline below the overnight low at 7740 would suggest that the smaller downward correction is continuing.

Neither outcome, by itself, would invalidate the larger wave count.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 29, 2026

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fluctuated sharply following the Federal Reserve’s announcement that it would leave interest rates unchanged. The futures initially rose into the 7790s before retreating. Despite the volatility, the market’s overall response was relatively mild.

Elliott Wave Theory. The rising third and final subwave of wave B remains underway. Wave B is part of a falling A wave, several degrees smaller than declining wave A{-6}, the first major subwave of wave E{-5}.

Wave E{-5} is the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Decision Points. A sustained advance above the FOMC reaction high, near 7790, would support continuation of the third subwave.

A decline below 7750 would suggest that the third subwave may have ended and a fourth-wave correction has begun.

Neither development would alter the larger Elliott wave count. The rising B wave remains part of the broader downward correction.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from an early low of 7756.25 to 7778.25.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave B continues within a falling A wave, part of falling wave A{-6} — several degrees higher — which is part of wave E{-5}, the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Decision Points. The immediate question is whether rising wave B has more distance to travel before turning downward.

A rise above the overnight high of 7778.25 would extend the advance. The next significant area on the two-hour chart lies around 7780 to 7800, where several earlier advances encountered resistance.

A decline below the overnight low of 7756.25 would provide evidence that wave B has ended and the next downward wave, C, has begun.

Neither outcome would alter the larger analysis. Falling wave E{-5} remains underway.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 28, 2026

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m.New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching a high so far of 7772.

Elliott Wave Theory. The rising B wave within the falling final wave, E{-5}, of an expanding triangle that began on October 29, 2025, remains underway.

Decision Points. The rise from the October 23 low of 7648.50 is consistent with the expected B-wave correction. A move above 7800 would extend the recovery without requiring a change in the wave count. A decline below 7648.50 would indicate that the B-wave interpretation needs to be reconsidered. The larger expectation remains for a declining C wave to follow the completion of B.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching 7749.25 before retreating into the 7730s.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the low at the end of last week, 7648.50, as the end of wave A within a series of larger subwaves within wave A{-6}.

In this structure, waves of degree {-6} have taken from one to several months to reach completion.

Wave A{-6} is the initial subwave of wave E{-5}, the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, an expanding triangle that began on October 29, 2025.

With the completion of the smaller wave A and its five subwaves, rising wave B has begun. It will work through three subwaves before reaching its end.

Decision Points

The immediate question is how far rising wave B will carry before the larger decline resumes.

The overnight high of 7749.25 is the first reference point. A rise above that level would extend the recovery, while a failure to exceed it would leave open the possibility that wave B has already completed its upward movement.

The wave B interpretation remains valid as long as the price stays below the starting point of the preceding wave A. A decline below 7648.50 would establish that the next downward movement is underway, although the internal wave structure will determine its degree.

The larger Elliott Wave Theory analysis remains unchanged. Falling wave E{-5} continues within the expanding triangle.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves — in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 27, 2026

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Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com