3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rosse to 6925.75 during the session and then retreated, so far reaching the 6870s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The analysis is unchanged. Wave E{-10] within wave C{-9} within wave 4{-8} continue.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to 6848.75 early in overnight trading and then began to rise, reaching 6904 before retreating to the 6870s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis concludes that the decline that began on January 13 from 7036.25 continues. It is a 4th-wave downward correction, wave 4{-8} on the chart, and is in its third subwave, wave C{-9}.

The C wave of a correction usually has five subwaves. Wave C{-9} is in its third subwave, wave C{-10}, which when complete will be followed by waves D{-10} and E{-10}.

Wave C{-10} is in its final subwave, wave E{-11}, which when complete will mark the end of wave C{-10} and the beginning of wave D{-10}.

Bottom line: The downward correction, wave 4{-8} has a while to go before it is done, casting a downward shadow on the S&P 500.

Decision points.

Bearish continuation favored while below:

• 6904 — today’s intraday high on the 5-minute chart
• 7011.50 — labeled D{-11} high (2/11) on the 55-minute chart

A break and hold above 7011.50 would:

• Weaken the active C{-9}/C{-10}/E{-11} down-structure
• Raise probability that a higher-degree corrective leg is already underway.

Downside confirmation levels:

• 6848.75 — overnight low (corrected value)
• Sustained trade below that level strengthens the case that:
  • Wave E{-11} is extending
  • Wave C{-10} is not yet complete.

The pattern implication levels:Any decisive break below the 6751.50 C{-11} low (2/5) would confirm the larger corrective structure still unfolding, and strongly support the wave 4{-8} has a while to go conclusion.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 55-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 18, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures hit a low for the day, 6791, about an hour into the session, and then rose into the 6880s.

Elliott Wave Theory: Continuing, wave E{-11} within wave C{-10} within wave C{-9} within wave 4{-8} — all part of the same larger corrective structure. A sustained move above the 6880s would weaken the E{-11} interpretation; a break back below 6791 would strengthen it.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? S&P 500 E-mini futures reopened after the holiday-thinned sessions at about 6856, pushed up to 6869.75 early, and then worked lower to a session low of 6805.75. As of this update, price has rebounded to roughly 6835.

What does it mean? Viewed through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, the decline is still best read as the final subwave of wave C{-10} (started February 3) continuing within the larger corrective structure. In this count, C{-10} is the middle wave of five within C{-9} (which began January 27), and C{-9} is the final wave within wave 4{-8}, the broader correction that began January 13 from 7036.25.

In other words, there has been lots of movement in the futures since late January, but not a lot of progress in any direction.

Here are the decision points:

6805.75 (overnight low): Hold above it and the decline remains contained within the ongoing corrective chop. Break and hold below it, and the odds rise that the final leg of C{-10} is extending toward the next support shelves.

6751.50 (2/5 low): A new low below 6751.50 would be the cleanest confirmation that the decline is still pressing lower, not merely whipsawing sideways.

6869.75 (overnight high): A reclaim above this level would be the first sign that the overnight downleg is losing control and that a larger bounce is underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 55-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 17, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose to 6897.75 after dipping to 6808.75 and then fell back into the 6840s.

Elliott Wave Theory: Falling wave E{-11} continues, although it is not yet robustly confirmed, leaving open the possibility that rising wave D{-11} is now underway.

9:52 a.m. New York time

After the opening bell. After the session open, the futures broke to a fresh low at 6808.75, confirming that the post-CPI bounce did not resolve the decline and strengthening the case that wave E{-11} is still pressing lower.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? S&P 500 E-mini futures whipsawed with the release of the Consumer Price Index report before the opening bell. The price fell to its low for the session, 6820, then rose to 6865 and rapidly retreating to the 6840s before rising again, remaining below the high point of the initial rise.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis continues to show falling wave E{-11} as being underway, a subwave of declining wave C{-10}, subwave of a larger declining wave C{-9}, which in turn is a subwave of a downward correction, wave 4{-8}.

The chart is buried deep within the 4th wave, and all of the subwaves are nearing their ends.

However, the wave E{-11} label still covers some ambiguity. It’s possible that the preceding movement, rising wave D{-11}, is still underway. A move beyond the CPI-response peak, 6865, lowers the odds that wave E{-11} is in fact underway and increases the odds that D{-11} is still in progress. A move below 6820, the pre-CPI low point, increases the odds that wave E{-11} is indeed underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3;30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 13, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures broke sharply lower today, falling from 6992.75 to 6860, then bouncing modestly into the high-6880s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The decisive break below 6960 strengthens yesterday’s risk flag: rising wave D{-11} likely ended and a new down leg—wave E{-11}—is probably underway. The current rebound looks like a subwave bounce within the decline, so the near-term count is still somewhat ambiguous, but the directional message is clearer: downward pressure has resumed.

I’ve changed the labelling on the chart and in the waves list to show wave E{-11} as the current wave.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now? S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from a low of 6952.25 into the 6990s, staying below yesterday’s high (7011.50).

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: No change. Rising wave D{-11} continues as a countertrend rally within the broader decline—wave C{-10} within wave 4{-8}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • E{-11} (none), 2/11/2026, 7011.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 12, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. After the morning jobs data was released, the S&P 500 futures ended the drama of the day early in the session, after falling from 7011.50 to 6931. Thereafter, the price went on a slow climb, returning to the 6970s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Unchanged. Wave D{-11} continues to rise.

9:40 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. Half an hour before the opening bell, the S&P 500 E-mini futures jumped on the Employment Situation Report. January unemployment was at 4.3% (down 0.1% from the past month and up 0.3% from the past year). The price reacted in two stages—first a measured climb that took about 25 minutes to push into the 7000s, then a second push that carried into the 7010s as the cash open approached.

What does it mean? Through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, this strengthens the working count that rising wave D{-11} is underway. D{-11} remains a countertrend rally inside falling wave C{-10}, which itself sits inside falling wave C{-9}, all within the larger corrective structure wave 4{-8}. In other words: today’s surge supports “D{-11} up” as a rally within a broader correction—not, by itself, a full trend reversal.

Here are the decision points. The first upside test is the 7027.25 pivot (2/3). A clean break and hold above it keeps D{-11} advancing and reopens the door to the larger confirmation level at 7043 (1/27). Below price, the first “give-back” level is the big round 7000 area; losing that shifts attention to the pre-ramp basing zone in the high 6960s–6970s, and then the morning low near 6953. A decisive rejection under 7027.25 followed by a breakdown back through those supports would fit the “D{-11) tops → C{-10} resumes down” pathway

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • D{-11} (none), 2/5/2026, 6751.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 11, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to 7006.50 during the session and then dropped to a low of 6969. Price has since bounced back toward the 6980s, leaving the day as a wide but two-sided range.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline from the peak unfolded in five subwaves, which suggests the bounce is a corrective upward move—an internal subwave within the broader pullback—while the larger working count remains intact: rising wave D{-11} is still the main wave moving price.

Decision points. 7006.50 is now the nearest upside checkpoint; reclaiming and holding above it would weaken the corrective interpretation and reopen the door to a stronger push higher. On the downside, 6969 is the day’s key low; a decisive break and hold below it would strengthen the case that the correction is extending rather than ending.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached an overnight high of 6997.50, declined into the 6980s, tested the high again but remained below it, and then—beginning at 7:30 a.m. ET—sold off sharply to 6970.50. From there, price rebounded back into the 6980s and rose higher after the opening bell.

What does it mean? Despite the drama, there is no change in the Elliott Wave Theory working count: Wave D{-11} remains in the active upswing. But today’s failure at 6997.50 plus the sharp 7:30 a.m. ET drop raises the odds we’re shifting into the next corrective leg unless price can reclaim and hold above 6997.50.

Decision points. Bulls need to reclaim and hold 6997.50 first; above that, the next upside checkpoints are 7027.25 and then 7043. If price breaks back below 6970.50, today’s rebound is likely only a bounce, and the market opens the door to a deeper pullback toward the next support zones.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • D{-11} (none), 2/5/2026, 6751.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 10, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour until the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures broke above 7000 during the session, rising from the low early in the session, 6924.75.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising D{-11} continues, but the broader structure remains bearish while price stays below 7027.25 and especially 7043.

Decision points: As long as /ES holds above 6924.75 (today’s low), the rebound can continue to develop; a clean break below it would be the first sign that the rally is failing and that a retest of 6751.50 (the Feb. 5 low) is back in play. On the upside, a push above 7027.25 would strengthen the case that this move is more than a bounce, while a decisive reclaim of 7043 (the Jan. 27 high) would be the key confirmation that the larger corrective advance is back in control.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures peaked early after trading resumed overnight, at 6979.75, and then declined reaching a low so far of 6921 before bouncing back into the 6950s

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory, as is often the case when there is a direction change, is ambiguous. Is the overnight fall a subwave of rising wave D{-11}, the next to the last subwave within declining wave C{-10}? If so, D{-11} is still underway. Or did D{-11} end at the 6979.75 peak? If so, then declining wave E{-11}, the final subwave of wave C{-10}, is underway.

I’m treating the ambiguity as a simple fork in the road. If this is still rising wave D{-11}, then the overnight drop is just a pause—a pullback that should stay “contained” and then give us another push higher. But if D{-11} actually ended at 6979.75, then this morning’s weakness is the start of the final leg down, declining wave E{-11}. In plain English: I’m not going to argue with the labeling until price argues with it. A clean push back above 6979.75 keeps the D{-11} idea alive; a clean break below 6921 (and failure to snap right back) tips the odds toward E{-11} being underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • D{-11} (none), 2/5/2026, 6751.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 9, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching 6943.50 and then consolidating below that high.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave D{-11} within falling wave C{-10} continues. The next upside decision point is 6946.99; acceptance above it would point to a further push toward 6978.31. A rollover that breaks back below 6915.82 would be the first sign that falling wave E{-11} is beginning and that the market is resuming the larger corrective decline.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, rebounding from 6751.50 into the 6870 area, and are currently consolidating in the mid-6850s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory counts the rebound as wave D{-11}, the next-to-last subwave within falling wave C{-10}. That larger C{-10} decline remains a subwave of falling wave C{-9}, all within declining wave 4{-8} (the correction that began January 13).

Targets and decision points.

• Upside cap for D{-11}: The first resistance zone is 6864.50–6870. A push above 6870 that holds would open the door to 6884.79, and then 6915.82–6922. Sustained trade above 6915.82–6922 would weaken the “D{-11} is the next-to-last subwave” assumption and suggest a larger rebound is unfolding.
• Downside path for E{-11}: If the rally is topping, the first rollover tell is a break back under 6846, followed by 6823.14. Below that, the next magnets are 6792–6800, then 6762, and ultimately a retest of 6751.50 (with a possible brief undercut toward 6731.70).

What comes next? When D{-11} is complete, E{-11} should unfold as the final decline that completes C{-10}. That, in turn, can also complete C{-9} and potentially 4{-8}. The main caveat is corrective complexity: sometimes the market resolves a correction with a more complex, multi-part structure rather than a single clean completion — not the base case here, but always a live possibility.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • D{-11} (none), 2/5/2026, 6751.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 6, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell sharply during the session, reaching a low of 6801.50 and then rising back into the 6870s and once again declining.

Elliott Wave Theory: The decline remains consistent with falling wave C{-10} within falling wave C{-9} within wave 4{-8}. All three remain downward unless price can reclaim and hold above the prior breakdown shelf (mid-to-upper 6860s) for more than a brief bounce.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined overnight, sliding from an early peak of 6935.25 down into the 6830s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: The principal wave in play remains wave 4{-6}, the upward correction that began October 10, 2025 at 6540.25. Wave 4{-6} is taking the form of an expanding triangle, so each successive subwave makes a larger swing (higher highs and lower lows) as the structure matures.

Within that triangle, wave C{-7} (the third of five triangle legs) is still the active leg—but C{-7} is currently being dragged down by its internal correction, wave 4{-8}.

Zooming in:

• Wave 4{-8} is unfolding as a three-part decline, and is now in its final segment, wave C{-9}.
• Wave C{-9} is subdividing lower, and within it we are in wave C{-10} (the down-leg that followed the 2/3 peak at 7027.25). Your 30-minute chart continues to support this: A{-10} bottomed 2/1 at 6864.50, B{-10} peaked 2/3 at 7027.25, and price is now pressing lower in C{-10}.

Practical read / levels.

• The market is still acting like “B-wave churn turning into C-wave pressure.”
• 6864.50 (the 2/1 low) is the near-term line in the sand. A clean break and failure to reclaim it keeps C{-10} in control and opens the door toward the prior low near 6814.50 (1/21).
• A recovery back above 6935.25 would ease the immediate downside pressure, but the larger confirmation/invalidation remains unchanged: 7043 is still the key “B{-9} strength” level on your map.

This morning’s economics darta release was seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims, which rose to 231,000 (+22,000) and the 4-week average increased to 212,250; insured unemployment is 1.844M (+25,000) with the insured unemployment rate unchanged at 1.2%. Initial Jobless Claims 20250205 It’s not “crisis,” but it adds a small tailwind to risk-off tone in a week where other jobs data are disrupted.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 5, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures sold off sharply during the session, then bounced off the lows, trading near 6922.

Elliott Wave Theory: The decline strengthens the case that falling wave C{-9} is underway. The alternative—another push higher within the broader B{-9} correction—remains possible, but still unconfirmed without a decisive move back above 7043 (the January 27 high). At the {-10} degree, the prior labeling implied wave B{-10} moved below the end of wave A{-10}, which is not allowed. To resolve that, I’m marking the February 3 peak (7027.25) as the end of wave B{-10}, and labeling the subsequent decline as wave C{-10}, now underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise overnight, from 6931.25 to 6965.75.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory reads the overnight rise as a subwave of wave B{-10}, which is itself a subwave of wave C{-9}—the final subwave of wave 4{-8}, the downward correction that began on January 13.

A characteristic of Elliott Wave Theory is that it identifies patterns that have occurred, and patterns that tend to follow—but it does not attach those patterns to time or distance. So an ongoing wave can look “done” when it isn’t, and a completed wave can look “still underway” when it isn’t. Only the passage of time (and the next confirmations/invalidations) can unravel the ambiguity.

As noted in yesterday’s analysis, labeling the decline that began on January 27 as falling wave C{-9} remains tentative. It is still possible that the decline is a subwave of rising wave B{-9}.

Here are the decision points.

Upside confirmation (B{-9} revival / C{-9} doubt increases):

1. 6965.75 (overnight high):
   • A clean push above and hold above suggests B{-10} is still extending upward (more than just noise).
2. 7009–7027.25 (resistance band; 2/3 high marked 7027.25):
   • Reclaiming this area would materially weaken the “we’re already in C{-9} down” narrative.
3. 7043 (Jan 27 high = the “line in the sand” you’ve been using):
   • Above 7043 = strongest confirmation that B{-9} is still underway (and that the late-Jan/early-Feb drop was corrective inside it, not the start of a larger C{-9} decline).

Downside confirmation (C{-9} strengthens / 4{-8} still working lower):

1. 6931.25 (overnight low):
   • A decisive break below, with no quick reclaim, is your near-term signal that the overnight pop was just a subwave and sellers are regaining control.
2. 6915–6916 area (near the next visible shelf on your 30m scale):
   • Losing this tends to open the door to a fast test of the bigger lows.
3. 6886 (2/3 low):
   • Below 6886 is the first “serious” confirmation that the market is leaning into the C{-9} path again.
4. 6864.50 (2/1 low):
   • Below 6864.50 strengthens the case that C{-9} is not just “possible,” but actively pushing toward completion of 4{-8}.
5. 6814.50 (1/21 low):
   • A break of 6814.50 would be a major escalation: it argues the correction is not finishing—it’s extending.

Practically speaking: Until the price leaves the 6931–6966 overnight box decisively, the most honest label is still “range + ambiguity.”

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 25-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 4, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com