The Week Ahead: GDP, income and outlays, trade

 

A third and final estimate of 4th quarter gross domestic product will be published on Thursday. Other major reports: International trade in goods on Tuesday and personal income and outlays on Friday.

All three reports will be released at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen addresses the National Community Reinvestment Coalition’s annual conference in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday at 12:50 p.m. Her topic: Addressing Workforce Development Challenges in Low-Income Communities.

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SPY Analysis

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

SPY’s implied volatility has risen to a relatively high level within a very narrow range.

I shall use the apr series of options, which trades for the last time 28 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 13% and, by definition, is nearly identical with the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

SPY’s IV stands in the 21st percentile of its annual range and the 79th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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MU Analysis

Micron Technology Inc. (MU)

MU publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 29 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 49%, which is 3.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

MU’s IV stands in the 37th percentile of its annual range and the 56th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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GME Analysis

GameStop Corp. (GME)

GME publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 29 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 43%, which is 3.4 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

GME’s IV stands in the 62nd percentile of its annual range and the 60th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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NKE Analysis

NIKE Inc. (NKE)

NKE publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 31 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 28%, which is 2.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

NKE’s IV stands in the 54th percentile of its annual range and the 59th percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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FDX Analysis

FedEx Corp. (FDX)

Update 3/22/2017FDX rose slightly and implied volatility declined sharply on the first trading day after earnings were published, bringing the options above my target of 25% of maximum potential profit. I exited.

Shares rose by 0.05% over one day, or a 19% annual rate. The options position produced a 27.9% yield on debit for a +10,192% annual rate


 

FDX publishes earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 31 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 28%, which is 2.3 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

FEX’s IV stands in the 73rd percentile of its annual range and the 91st percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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