3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures peaked at 4087.75 early in the session and then fell back to the 4060s. It’s possible the peak marked the end of the 3rd of five waves within the final wave of the upward correction that began on March 13. Or perhaps not.

In Elliott wave terminology, the peak may have marked the end of rising wave C{-10} and the beginning of declining wave D{-10} within rising wave C{-9}. The corrective pattern will end with rising wave E{-10} within wave C{-9}. It’s also possible that the price will quickly reverse and continue pushing wave C{-10} upward.

For the moment, I shall stay with this morning’s analysis, that wave C{-10} is underway. Nonetheless, I’ll be unsurprised if Wave D{-10} began from that point.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose steadily into the 4080s overnight.

What does it mean? The upward correction that began on March 13 continues and is in the corrective pattern’s third and final leg. The correction will be followed by a downtrend that will carry the price back to the 3830s and most likely significantly below that level.

What are the alternatives? The 3rd subwave is the final wave of a correction. But not always. Some corrections form a compound structure, linking two or three corrective patterns together. The present correction is the 2nd of five waves in a downtrend. Compound corrections are far more common in 4th waves. Nonetheless, 2nd-wave compound corrections aren’t unheard of.

Reading the chart. Elliott wave analysis views the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. My labeling system assigns numbers to the subwaves of trending waves, and letters to the subwaves of corrections. Each number or letter is followed by a subscript, in curly brackets, showing the waves position within the complex structure, called its “degree” in Elliott wave parlance. The smaller the number, the lower the degree. On this chart we’re dealing with relatively small waves, so the degree numbers are negative.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 110-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? The configuration is unchanged from yesterday. Wave C{-9} within the upward correction that began on March 13, wave 2{-8}, is underway. Wave C{-9} will have five subwaves one degree lower and is in the 3rd subwave, rising wave C{-10}.

Here are other waves that are important to the analysis:

Principal analysis:

• The upward correction that began on March 13, wave 2{-8}, continues.
• It is in the third of three subwaves, rising wave C{-9}.
• Wave 2{-8} will be followed by a downtrend, wave 3{-8}, that will carry the price below the correction’s starting point, 3839.25, and most likely significantly below that level.

Alternative analysis:

• Wave 2{-8}, the upward correction, will form a compound structure, linking together two or three corrective patterns.
• Under that alternative, if it should occur, the present rising wave C{-9} will be followed by a declining connector wave, X{-9}, and then the first wave of a second corrective pattern.
• The correction is a 2nd wave, and compounding is seen less often in 2nds. However, they do happen on occasion.

Bigger structures:

• This is all happening within downtrending wave 3{-7}, which began on February 2.
• Wave 3{-7} is a subwave of downtrending wave 3{-6}, which began on August 16, 2022.
• Wave 3{-6} is encompassed by a series of larger declining waves, the smaller within the larger, stretching up five degrees to wave 4{-1}, which began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1} is the next-to-the-last wave within a large expanding Diagonal Triangle, wave 5{0}, that began on December 26, 2018
• When wave 4{-1} is complete, wave 5{-1} will begin and will carry the wave above the January 4 high, 4808.25, and back to the upper boundary of the triangle, which gets higher continually and is in the 6090s.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 1{-2} Minute, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-3} Minuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-5} Micro, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 8/16/2022, 4327.50 (down)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 2/2/2023, 4208.50 (down)

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 30, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, returning to the 4050s. No change in this morning’s analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose into the 4040s overnight.

What does it mean? The rise is the 3rd of five subwaves within the 3rd and perhaps final wave within an upward correction that began on March 13. When the correction is complete, it will be followed by an energetic decline into the 3930s and likely significantly below that level.

What are the alternatives? In most cases, the 3rd wave is the final wave of a correction. There are, however, exceptions. Some corrections form a compound structure, linking two or three corrective patterns together. The present correction is the 2nd of five waves in a downtrend. Compound corrections are far more common in 4th waves. Nonetheless, 2nd-wave compound corrections sometimes happen.

Reading the chart. Elliott wave analysis views the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. My labeling system assigns numbers to the subwaves of trending waves, and letters to the subwaves of corrections. Each number or letter is followed by a subscript, in curly brackets, showing the waves position within the complex structure, called its “degree” in Elliott wave parlance. The smaller the number, the lower the degree. On this chart we’re dealing with relatively small waves, so the degree numbers are negative.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 110-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Wave C{-9} within the upward correction that began on March 13, wave 2{-8}, is underway. Wave C{-9} will have five subwaves one degree lower and is in the 3rd subwave, rising wave C{-10}.

Here are other waves that are important to the analysis:

Principal analysis:

• The upward correction that began on March 13, wave 2{-8}, continues.
• It is in the third of three subwaves, rising wave C{-9}.
• Wave 2{-8} will be followed by a downtrend, wave 3{-8}, that will carry the price below the correction’s starting point, 3839.25, and most likely significantly below that level.

Alternative analysis:

• Wave 2{-8}, the upward correction, will form a compound structure, linking together two or three corrective patterns.
• Under that alternative, if it should occur, the present rising wave C{-9} will be followed by a declining connector wave, X{-9}, and then the first wave of a second corrective pattern.
• The correction is a 2nd wave, and compounding is seen less often in 2nds. However, they do happen on occasion.

Bigger structures:

• This is all happening within downtrending wave 3{-7}, which began on February 2.
• Wave 3{-7} is a subwave of downtrending wave 3{-6}, which began on August 16, 2022.
• Wave 3{-6} is encompassed by a series of larger declining waves, the smaller within the larger, stretching up five degrees to wave 4{-1}, which began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1} is the next-to-the-last wave within a large expanding Diagonal Triangle, wave 5{0}, that began on December 26, 2018
• When wave 4{-1} is complete, wave 5{-1} will begin and will carry the wave above the January 4 high, 4808.25, and back to the upper boundary of the triangle, which gets higher continually and is in the 6090s.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 1{-2} Minute, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-3} Minuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-5} Micro, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 8/16/2022, 4327.50 (down)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 2/2/2023, 4208.50 (down)

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 29, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures tick-tocked along with no drama during the session and so far has declined into the 3980s. The downward correction that began on March 13, wave 2{-8}, continues. No change from this morning’s analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight, reaching into the 3990s.

What does it mean? The upward correction that began on March 13 continues and is in its 3rd and probably final subwave. There’s a lack of clarity regarding how far along the final subwave is through its internal waves.

What are the alternatives? A couple of alternatives today.

In describing the principal analysis I hedged — “probably” — whether the 3rd subwave will when complete be the end of the correction. For most corrections, the 3rd subwave wave will be the end. However, sometimes corrections take a compound form, linking together two or three corrective patterns. If that happens here, then the present 3rd subwave will end the first corrective pattern but the compound correction will continue.

At a smaller level, there is some ambiguity regarding the internal waves within the 3rd subwave, which will have five internal waves altogether. As my principal analysis, reflected on the chart, I’ve chosen to treat the overnight decline as a correction within the 1st internal wave. It’s also quite possible that the 1st internal wave ended with the March 27 high, 4034.25, and the that the 2nd internal wave is now underway.

Reading the chart. Elliott wave analysis views the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. My labeling system assigns numbers to the subwaves of trending waves, and letters to the subwaves of corrections. Each number or letter is followed by a subscript, in curly brackets, showing the waves position within the complex structure, called its “degree” in Elliott wave parlance. The smaller the number, the lower the degree. On this chart we’re dealing with relatively small waves, so the degree numbers are negative.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 100-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Wave C{-9} within the upward correction that began on March 13, wave 2{-8}, is underway. Wave C{-9} will have five subwaves one degree lower and is in the first subwave, A{-10}.

Here are other waves that are important to the analysis:

Principal analysis:

• The upward correction that began on March 13, wave 2{-8}, continues.
• It is in the third of three subwaves, rising wave C{-9}.
• Wave 2{-8} will be followed by a downtrend, wave 3{-8}, that will carry the price below the correction’s starting point, 3839.25, and most likely significantly below that level.

Alternative analysis #1:

• Wave 2{-8}, the upward correction, will form a compound structure, linking together two or three corrective patterns.
• Under that alternative, if it should occur, the present rising wave C{-9} will be followed by a declining connector wave, X{-9}, and then the first wave of a second corrective pattern.
• The correction is a 2nd wave, and compounding is seen less often in 2nds. However, they do happen on occasion.

Alternative analysis #2:

• Within wave 2{-8}, the second subwave, wave B{-10} with wave C{-9}, began with the overnight decline.

Bigger structures:

• This is all happening within downtrending wave 3{-7}, which began on February 2.
• Wave 3{-7} is a subwave of downtrending wave 3{-6}, which began on August 16, 2022.
• Wave 3{-6} is encompassed by a series of larger declining waves, the smaller within the larger, stretching up five degrees to wave 4{-1}, which began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1} is the next-to-the-last wave within a large expanding Diagonal Triangle, wave 5{0}, that began on December 26, 2018
• When wave 4{-1} is complete, wave 5{-1} will begin and will carry the wave above the January 4 high, 4808.25, and back to the upper boundary of the triangle, which gets higher continually and is approaching the 6000s.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 1{-2} Minute, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-3} Minuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-5} Micro, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 8/16/2022, 4327.50 (down)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 2/2/2023, 4208.50 (down)

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 28, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traced a fluctuating sideways pattern during the session, reaching a high so far of 4034.25. The pause is a low-degree correction within the rising final wave, C{-9} within a larger upward correction, wave 2{-8}, that began on March 13. No change in this morning’s analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose after trading resumed overnight, reaching into the 4030s as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? The upward correction that began on March 13 is in its 3rd and final leg. The price is almost certain to rise above the end of the 1st leg, 4073.75. The end of the present rise will most likely be the end of the upward correction and the start of an energetic decline that will carry the price below the correction’s starting point, 3839.25, and typically a significant distance below that level.

What are the alternatives? The end of present rise won’t be the end of the upward correction if it takes a compound form. A compound correction links two or three corrective patterns together. If the correction is compound, then the present 3rd-leg rise will be followed by a declining connecting wave, and then by a second corrective pattern.

Reading the chart. Elliott wave analysis views the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. My labeling system assigns numbers to the subwaves of trending waves, and letters to the subwaves of corrections. Each number or letter is followed by a subscript, in curly brackets, showing the waves position within the complex structure, called its “degree” in Elliott wave parlance. The smaller the number, the lower the degree. On this chart we’re dealing with relatively small waves, so the degree numbers are negative.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 100-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Wave B{-9} within the upward correction that began on March 13, wave 2{-8}, ended at the March 24 low, 3937. Wave C{-9}, now underway, will have three subwaves one degree lower and is in the first subwave, A{-10}.

Here are other waves that are important to the analysis:

Principal analysis:

• The upward correction that began on March 13, wave 2{-8}, continues.
• It is in the third of three subwaves, rising wave C{-9}.
• Wave 2{-8} will be followed by a downtrend, wave 3{-8}, that will carry the price below the correction’s starting point, 3839.25, and most likely significantly below that level.

Alternative analysis:

• Wave 2{-8}, the upward correction, will form a compound structure, linking together two or three corrective patterns.
• Under that alternative, if it should occur, the present rising wave C{-9} will be followed by a declining connector wave, X{-9}, and then the first wave of a second corrective pattern.
• The correction is a 2nd wave, and compounding is seen less often in 2nds. However, they do happen on occasion.

Bigger structures:

• This is all happening within downtrending wave 3{-7}, which began on February 2.
• Wave 3{-7} is a subwave of downtrending wave 3{-6}, which began on August 16, 2022.
• Wave 3{-6} is encompassed by a series of larger declining waves, the smaller within the larger, stretching up five degrees to wave 4{-1}, which began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1} is the next-to-the-last wave within a large expanding Diagonal Triangle, wave 5{0}, that began on December 26, 2018
• When wave 4{-1} is complete, wave 5{-1} will begin and will carry the wave above the January 4 high, 4808.25, and back to the upper boundary of the triangle, which gets higher continually and is approaching the 6000s.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 1{-2} Minute, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-3} Minuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-5} Micro, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 8/16/2022, 4327.50 (down)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 2/2/2023, 4208.50 (down)

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 27, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, breaking above the overnight high but remaining well below the starting point of the present middle wave within the final wave of the upward correction that began on March 13. No change in this morning’s analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight, reaching into the 3930s so far.

What does it mean? The declining middle wave of a three-wave upward correction is underway and is in its 2nd of three subwaves. When the middle wave has reached its end, the rising final wave will begin, likely carrying the price back to the 4070s and perhaps above. The correction began on March 13 from 3839.25. The upward correction is a 2nd wave, meaning that it cannot, under the rules of Elliott Wave Theory, move beyond the start ing point of the correction, setting a limit on how far the present declining middle wave can travel. The correction will be followed by a downtrending wave that will drop below 3839.25 and perhaps significantly so.

What are the alternatives? None at present. Yesterday’s Trader’s Notebook noted that the present decline might be a subwave within the rising first wave of the correction. The price has fallen far enough that I no longer consider that to be a likely alternative.

Reading the chart. Elliott wave analysis views the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. My labeling system assigns numbers to the subwaves of trending waves, and letters to the subwaves of corrections. Each number or letter is followed by a subscript, in curly brackets, showing the waves position within the complex structure, called its “degree” in Elliott wave parlance. The smaller the number, the lower the degree. On this chart we’re dealing with relatively small waves, so the degree numbers are negative.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 100-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Wave B{-9} within the upward correction, wave 2{-8}, is in progress and will have three subwaves one degree lower. It is presently in the middle subwave, wave B{-9}. Under the rules of Elliott wave theory, wave B{-9} cannot move below 3839.25, the starting point of wave 2{-8}. If the price drops below that level, then the analysis will no longer match the chart and will be reanalyzed.

Here are the waves that are important to the analysis:

Principal analysis:

• The upward correction that began on March 13, wave 2{-8}, continues.
• It is in the second of three subwaves, declining wave B{-9}.
• Wave 2{-8} will be followed by a downtrend, wave 3{-8}, that will carry the price below the correction’s starting point, 3839.25, and most likely significantly below that level.
• This is all happening within downtrending wave 3{-7}, which began on February 2.
• Wave 3{-7} is a subwave of downtrending wave 3{-6}, which began on August 16, 2022.

Bigger structures:

• Wave 3{-6} is encompassed by a series of larger declining waves, the smaller within the larger, stretching up five degrees to wave 4{-1}, which began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1} is the next-to-the-last wave within a large expanding Diagonal Triangle, wave 5{0}, that began on December 26, 2018
• When wave 4{-1} is complete, wave 5{-1} will begin and will carry the wave above the January 4 high, 4808.25, and back to the upper boundary of the triangle, which gets higher continually and is approaching the 6000s.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 1{-2} Minute, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-3} Minuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-5} Micro, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 8/16/2022, 4327.50 (down)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 2/2/2023, 4208.50 (down)

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 24, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell to the 3940s during the session.

The decline was the first subwave of the middle portion of the upward correction that began on March 13, and the rise was the second subwave. The third subwave is now in progress. That is how I have marked the chart.

Alternatively, all three waves after the March 22 peak are parts of the first subwave.

In Elliott wave terms, the principal analysis is that declining wave C{-10} within wave B{-9} within the upward correction, wave 2{-9}, is underway. The alternative moves the waves within wave B{-9} down one degree. Under that scenario, wave C{-11} within wave A{-10} within wave B{-9} is underway. Future events will clarify the degrees.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a high overnight of 4001.25 and then fell into the 3970s before retracing part of the decline.

What does it mean? The first segment of an upward correction that began on March 13 ended on March 22 at 4073.75. The decline was an early subwave of the second of three segments.

What are the alternatives? It’s possible the overnight decline is a subwave of the correction’s first segment.

Under both the principal analysis and the alternative, the price will decline and then move above the March 22 high, 4073.75. The decline will be shallower under the alternative, deeper under the principal analysis.

Reading the chart. Elliott wave analysis views the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. My labeling system assigns numbers to the subwaves of trending waves, and letters to the subwaves of corrections. Each number or letter is followed by a subscript, in curly brackets, showing the waves position within the complex structure, called its “degree” in Elliott wave parlance. The smaller the number, the lower the degree. On this chart we’re dealing with relatively small waves, so the degree numbers are negative.

Wait a minute. Why are the chart’s wave numbers wildly different from yesterday morning? For those who didn’t see yesterday afternoon’s Trader’s Notebook, the price moved contrary to a rule of Elliott wave theory, and I reanalyzed the chart. The upward correction that began on March 13 is still there, but it is a larger degree compared to the former analysis. See the analysis and my reasoning here.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Wave A{-9} within the upward correction, wave 2{-8} ended on March 22, and wave B{-9} has begun. Wave A{-9} had five subwaves, meaning that the correction is taking the form of a Zigzag. Wave B{-9} will have three subwaves, and wave C{-9} will have five.

Here is a discussion of waves that are important to the analysis.

Principal analysis:

• The upward correction that began on March 13, wave 2{-8}, continues.
• It is in the second of three subwaves, wave B{-9}, which in turn is in its first subwave, wave A{-10}.
• Wave 2{-8} will be followed by a downtrend, wave 3{-8}, that will carry the price below the correction’s starting point, 3839.25, and most likely significantly below that level.

Alternative analysis:

• Wave A{-9} is still underway and the overnight decline is a subwave within it.

Bigger structures:

• This is all happening within wave 3{-7}, which began on February 2.
• Wave 3{-7} is a subwave of wave 3{-6}, which began on August 16, 2022.
• Wave 3{-6} is encompassed by a series of larger waves, the smaller within the larger, stretching up five degrees to wave 4{-1}, which began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1} is the next-to-the-last wave within a large expanding Diagonal Triangle, wave 5{0}, that began on December 26, 2018
• When wave 4{-1} is complete, wave 5{-1} will begin and will carry the wave above the January 4 high, 4808.25, and into the 6000s, where the present upper boundary of the triangle lies. The expanding part means that each day that upper boundary moves higher.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 1{-2} Minute, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-3} Minuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-5} Micro, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 8/16/2022, 4327.50 (down)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 2/2/2023, 4208.50 (down)

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 23, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures shot up to 4073.75 after the Federal Open Market Committee raised the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. It then fell sharply, reaching close to 4000 as the closing bell approached.

The high price broke a rule of Elliott wave analysis, discussed this morning (below) before the Fed announcement. Because of the magnitude of the rise, this morning’s analysis no longer matches the reality of the market — the map doesn’t match the territory — and I have performed a reanalysis.

The new analysis:

An upward correction that began on March 13 continues and is in its initial wave. The wave is a 2nd wave, and the rules of Elliott wave analysis set an upper limit on 2nd waves: They don’t move beyond the starting point of the preceding 1st wave. In this case, the 1st wave began from 4208.50, and that is the firm upper limit to the upward correction.

In Elliott wave terminology, the upward correction is wave 2{-8}, the second wave within wave 3{-7}, a downtrend that began on February 2. Wave 2{-8} is in its first internal wave, A{-9}, which in turn is in its final wave, E{-10}. The preceding 1st wave, which sets an upper limit on the correction, is wave 1{-8}, which began on February 2 from 4208.50.

I’ve retained the chart of the old analysis from this morning. Here is a chart of the revised analysis:

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time

Outdated. The analysis below has been made obsolete by events. See this afternoon’s analysis, above.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to 4043.25 at the end of yesterday’s session and spent the night trading sideways slightly below that level.

What does it mean? Traders are fishing for a top with very little room on the upside to achieve one. Under a rule of Elliott wave analysis, the March 21 peak was 4.75 points below the upper limit of the upward correction that began on March 13.

The Federal Open Market Committee will release a statement at 2 this afternoon, announcing their decision on raising the Federal Funds Rate. Generally such announcements are met with several minutes of wild swings by the S&P 500 and its derivatives. If a swing moves beyond the upper limit and then declines the rest of the day and into tomorrow, how should the chart be interpreted?

The present upward correction is the 4th wave of a downtrend. Under the Elliott rules, a 4th wave can’t move into the territory of the preceding 1st wave. That 1st wave ended at 4043.25 on the futures, 3959.79 on the index. The price on the index has already exceeded that level. The futures price has not, so we’re already ensnared in a discrepancy.

Futures move in 25-cent increments, and the index moves in one-cent increments. So that difference means that the index could move above the level and the futures remain below, as long as the discrepancy was within 25 cents. Under those circumstances, it wouldn’t necessarily count as triggering the rule. But in this case, the index is 50 cents above the futures, so the rule really has been triggered.

Moreover, Elliott wave theory treats the markets as being a reflection of the public’s opinion and mood, as expressed by traders. Does a wild swing in response to a Fed announcement really represent the consensus opinion and mood of traders and the wider public? I’ve always figured that a good portion of those swings are driven by AI trading computers, along with day traders. Does the opinion and mood of a machine that mimics intelligence count in an analysis of the public’s opinion and mood?

Unanswerable questions. The markets of 2023 are far more complex than the markets analyzed by R.N. Elliott when he developed Elliott wave analysis. Given the pattern on the chart, a re-analysis won’t be a simple matter. Today, my plan is to ignore the rule, call the top if it happens, and deal with the rule and labelling problem today and possibly tonight.

What are the alternatives? The main alternative is a product of the game called “Find the Top”. Any higher high is potentially the top at this point, but we really won’t know for sure until the price has fallen far enough to the the top call a degree of credibility.

Reading the chart. Elliott wave analysis views the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. My labeling system assigns numbers to the subwaves of trending waves, and letters to the subwaves of corrections. Each number or letter is followed by a subscript, in curly brackets, showing the waves position within the complex structure, called its “degree” in Elliott wave parlance. The smaller the number, the lower the degree. On this chart we’re dealing with relatively small waves, so the degree numbers are negative.

[The former analysis: S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Rising wave E{-16} continues. It is the final wave within the larger final wave, C{-15), of the upward correction, wave 4{-14}. It’s completion will bring wave 4{-14} to an end.

Here is a discussion of waves that are important to the analysis.

Principal analysis:

• The downward correction that began on February 2, wave 3{-7}, continues.
• It is in the first of five subwaves, wave 1{-8}.
• Within wave 1{-8}, wave 1{-9} is underway and is in the final subwave within a five-wave structure, downtrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10}, in turn, is in its middle wave, 3{-11}, which is in its final wave, 5{-12}..
• The end of wave 5{-12} will also be the end of wave 3{-11}, a subwave of downtrending wave 5{-10}.
• When wave 5{-10} is complete, it will also mark the end of wave 1{-9} and the beginning of a low-degree upward correction, wave 2{-9}.
• Within wave 5{-12}, downtrending wave 1{-13} is underway and internally is in wave 4{-14}, an upward correction.
• Wave 4{-14} is in its final internal wave, C{-15}, which in turn is in its final subwave, E{-16}.
• Under the rules of Elliott wave analysis, wave 4{-14} cannot exceed the end of the preceding 1st wave of the same degree, wave 1{-14}, which ended at 4048.
• Wave 4{-14} will be followed by downtrending wave 5{-14}, which will complete its parent, wave 1{-13}
• Wave 1{-13} and the start of an upward correction, wave 2{-13}.
• Wave 3{-7} is still taking its tentative first steps and will develop into a powerful downtrend that will carry the price below 3502, the starting point of the preceding upward correction, wave 2{-7}, and most likely significantly below that level.

Bigger structures:

• This is all happening within wave 3{-6}, which began on August 16, 2022.
• Wave 3{-6} is encompassed by a series of larger waves, the smaller within the larger, stretching up five degrees to wave 4{-1}, which began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1} is the next-to-the-last wave within a large expanding Diagonal Triangle, wave 5{0}, that began on December 26, 2018
• When wave 4{-1} is complete, wave 5{-1} will begin and will carry the wave above the January 4 high, 4808.25, and into the 6000s, where the present upper boundary of the triangle lies. The expanding part means that each day that upper boundary moves higher.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 1{-2} Minute, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-3} Minuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-5} Micro, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 8/16/2022, 4327.50 (down)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 2/2/2023, 4208.50 (down)

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 22, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching a high so far of 4033.75. The last wave, {E-16}, within the larger last wave, {C-15}, within the upward correction, 4{-14}, is underway. I count E{-16} as also being in its last wave, E{-17}, although the pattern in a bit muddy at that low degree.

This morning’s analysis stands. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching into the 4020s.

What does it mean? The upward correction that began on March 13 is nearing its end. The correction is the 4th wave in a five-wave downtrend that began on March 6. Elliott wave analysis has very few rules. One is that 4th wave cannot move beyond the start of the preceding 1st wave in the series. In this case, the first wave ended at 4080, and if the present upward correction rises above that price, then the analysis no longer matches the chart and must be redone.

What are the alternatives? There are none. The three alternatives laid out in yesterday’s analysis have all been knocked out by rise above 4009.25, the March 17 high.

Reading the chart. Elliott wave analysis views the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. My labeling system assigns numbers to the subwaves of trending waves, and letters to the subwaves of corrections. Each number or letter is followed by a subscript, in curly brackets, showing the waves position within the complex structure, called its “degree” in Elliott wave parlance. The smaller the number, the lower the degree. On this chart we’re dealing with relatively small waves, so the degree numbers are negative.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Rising wave E{-16} has begun. It is the final wave within the larger final wave, C{-15), of the upward correction, wave 4{-14}. It’s completion will bring wave 4{-14} to an end.

Here is a discussion of waves that are important to the analysis.

Principal analysis:

• The downward correction that began on February 2, wave 3{-7}, continues.
• It is in the first of five subwaves, wave 1{-8}.
• Within wave 1{-8}, wave 1{-9} is underway and is in the final subwave within a five-wave structure, downtrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10}, in turn, is in its middle wave, 3{-11}, which is in its final wave, 5{-12}..
• The end of wave 5{-12} will also be the end of wave 3{-11}, a subwave of downtrending wave 5{-10}.
• When wave 5{-10} is complete, it will also mark the end of wave 1{-9} and the beginning of a low-degree upward correction, wave 2{-9}.
• Within wave 5{-12}, downtrending wave 1{-13} is underway and internally is in wave 4{-14}, an upward correction.
• Wave 4{-14} is in its final internal wave, C{-15}, which in turn is in its final subwave, E{-16}.
• Wave 4{-14} cannot exceed the end of the preceding 1st wave of the same degree, wave 1{-14}, which ended at 4048.
• Wave 4{-14} will be followed by downtrending wave 5{-14}, which will complete its parent, wave 1{-13}
• Wave 1{-13} and the start of an upward correction, wave 2{-13}.
• Wave 3{-7} is still taking its tentative first steps and will develop into a powerful downtrend that will carry the price below 3502, the starting point of the preceding upward correction, wave 2{-7}, and most likely significantly below that level.

Bigger structures:

• This is all happening within wave 3{-6}, which began on August 16, 2022.
• Wave 3{-6} is encompassed by a series of larger waves, the smaller within the larger, stretching up five degrees to wave 4{-1}, which began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1} is the next-to-the-last wave within a large expanding Diagonal Triangle, wave 5{0}, that began on December 26, 2018
• When wave 4{-1} is complete, wave 5{-1} will begin and will carry the wave above the January 4 high, 4808.25, and into the 6000s, where the present upper boundary of the triangle lies. The expanding part means that each day that upper boundary moves higher.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 1{-2} Minute, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-3} Minuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-5} Micro, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 8/16/2022, 4327.50 (down)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 2/2/2023, 4208.50 (down)

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 21, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 3980s. Wave E{-16} within wave C{-15} within an upward correction, wave 4{-14} continues. No change in the analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell after trading resumed overnight, reaching a low of 3897.25 and then reversing, returning to the 3960s.

What does it mean? The final wave of an upward correction that began on March 13 continues. Internally, its final subwave is rising to a conclusion. When the correction is complete, it will be followed by a downtrend that will carry the price below 3839.25, the correction’s starting point, and likely significantly below that level.

What are the alternatives? There are three:

Alternative #1: The three-wave correction ended on March 17 at 4009.25, and the subsequent downtrend has begun.

Alternative #2: The initial three-wave corrective pattern within a compound correction ended at the March 17 high. The decline that followed is a connecting wave that will be followed by a second corrective pattern. Altogether, compound corrections can contain up to three corrective patterns.

Alternative #3: The decline that began on March 17 under the principal analysis is a subwave of the larger final wave of the correction. It’s possible that it is possible that the next-to-the-last wave within that subwave is still underway and the final wave has not yet begun.

Reading the chart. Elliott wave analysis views the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. My labeling system assigns numbers to the subwaves of trending waves, and letters to the subwaves of corrections. Each number or letter is followed by a subscript, in curly brackets, showing the waves position within the complex structure, called its “degree” in Elliott wave parlance. The smaller the number, the lower the degree. On this chart we’re dealing with relatively small waves, so the degree numbers are negative.

I’ve moved the chart in to focus on the final wave of a larger downtrend. The final wave, 5{-12}, began on March 6. The downtrend of which it is a subwave, 3{-11}, began on February 15.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Wave D{-16} within wave C{-15} within the upward correction, wave 4{-14}, ended at the overnight low. Rising wave E{-16}, the final wave with wave C{-15}, has begun.I t’s completion will bring wave 4{-14} to an end.

Here is a rundown of waves that are important to the analysis.

Principal analysis:

• The downward correction that began on February 2, wave 3{-7}, continues.
• It is in the first of five subwaves, wave 1{-8}.
• Within wave 1{-8}, wave 1{-9} is underway and is in the final subwave within a five-wave structure, downtrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10}, in turn, is in its middle wave, 3{-11}, which is in its final wave, 5{-12}..
• The end of wave 5{-12} will also be the end of wave 3{-11}, a subwave of downtrending wave 5{-10}.
• When wave 5{-10} is complete, it will also mark the end of wave 1{-9} and the beginning of a low-degree upward correction, wave 2{-9}.
• Within wave 5{-12}, downtrending wave 1{-13} is underway and internally is in wave 4{-14}, an upward correction.
• Wave 4{-14} is in its final internal wave, C{-15}, which in turn is in its final subwave, E{-16}.
• Wave 4{-14} will be followed by downtrending wave 5{-14}, which will complete its parent, wave 1{-13}
• Wave 1{-13} and the start of an upward correction, wave 2{-13}.
• Wave 3{-7} is still taking its tentative first steps and will develop into a powerful downtrend that will carry the price below 3502, the starting point of the preceding upward correction, wave 2{-7}, and most likely significantly below that level.

Alternative analysis #1

• Wave C{-15} and its parent, wave 4{-14}, ended at the March 17 peak. Wave 5{-15}, a downtrend, has begun.

Alternative analysis #2

• Wave C{-15} ended at the March 17 peak, ending a corrective pattern. The parent wave 4{-14} is forming a compound correction, and the decline that followed the March 17 peak was a connector, wave X{-15}, and the rise that followed is the beginning of a second corrective pattern, wave A{-15}.

Alternative analysis #3

• Falling wave D{-16} within wave C{-15} within wave 4{-14} is still underway.

Bigger structures:

• This is all happening within wave 3{-6}, which began on August 16, 2022.
• Wave 3{-6} is encompassed by a series of larger waves, the smaller within the larger, stretching up five degrees to wave 4{-1}, which began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1} is the next-to-the-last wave within a large expanding Diagonal Triangle, wave 5{0}, that began on December 26, 2018
• When wave 4{-1} is complete, wave 5{-1} will begin and will carry the wave above the January 4 high, 4808.25, and into the 6000s, where the present upper boundary of the triangle lies. The expanding part means that each day that upper boundary moves higher.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 1{-2} Minute, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-3} Minuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-5} Micro, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 8/16/2022, 4327.50 (down)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 2/2/2023, 4208.50 (down)

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 20, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued falling during the session, reaching the 3920s. There’s no change to this morning’s analysis. The final wave, C{-15} within the upward correction that began on March 13, wave 4{-14}, continues, and is in its fourth wave internally, declining wave D{16}.

I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures peaked at 4009.25 overnight and then declined.

What does it mean? An upward correction that began on March 13 is in its final wave and within it, in the fourth of five subwaves. The present decline will be quickly followed by a final rise that will bring the correction to an end. After the correction is complete, the downtrend that began on March 6 will resume.

What are the alternatives? After the correction is complete, it could become apparent that the correction is forming a compound structure, linking two or three corrective patterns together. If so, then the first corrective pattern now underway will be followed by a linking wave and then by a second corrective pattern.

Reading the chart. Elliott wave analysis views the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. My labeling system assigns numbers to the subwaves of trending waves, and letters to the subwaves of corrections. Each number or letter is followed by a subscript, in curly brackets, showing the waves position within the complex structure, called its “degree” in Elliott wave parlance. The smaller the number, the lower the degree. On this chart we’re dealing with relatively small waves, so the degree numbers are negative.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 100-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? Wave C{-16} within wave C{-15} within the upward correction, wave 4{-14}, ended at the overnight peak. Falling wave D{-16} has begun. It will be followed by rising wave E{-16}, which will bring wave 4{-14} to an end.

Here is a rundown of waves that are important to the analysis.

Principal analysis:

• The downward correction that began on February 2, wave 3{-7}, continues.
• It is in the first of five subwaves, wave 1{-8}.
• Within wave 1{-8}, wave 1{-9} is underway and is in the final subwave within a five-wave structure, downtrending wave 5{-10}.
• Wave 5{-10}, in turn, is in its middle wave, 3{-11}, which is in its final wave, 5{-12}..
• The end of wave 5{-12} will also be the end of wave 3{-11}, a subwave of downtrending wave 5{-10}.
• When wave 5{-10} is complete, it will also mark the end of wave 1{-9} and the beginning of a low-degree upward correction, wave 2{-9}.
• Within wave 5{-12}, downtrending wave 1{-13} is underway and internally is in wave 4{-14}, an upward correction.
• Wave 4{-14} is in its final internal wave, C{-15}, which in turn is in its fourth internal wave, D{-16}.
• Wave C{-15} could be taking the form of a contracting Triangle. [Now outdated.]
• Wave 4{-14} will be followed by downtrending wave 5{-14}, which will complete its parent, wave 1{-13}
• Wave 1{-13} and the start of an upward correction, wave 2{-13}.
• Wave 3{-7} is still taking its tentative first steps and will develop into a powerful downtrend that will carry the price below 3502, the starting point of the preceding upward correction, wave 2{-7}, and most likely significantly below that level.

Alternative analysis [Now outdated.]

• If wave 4{-14} forms a compound correction, then wave E{-16}, having brought the first corrective pattern to an end, will be followed by wave X{-16}, a connecting wave that will be followed by future wave A{-16}, the first subwave of the second corrective pattern.

Bigger structures:

• This is all happening within wave 3{-6}, which began on August 16, 2022.
• Wave 3{-6} is encompassed by a series of larger waves, the smaller within the larger, stretching up five degrees to wave 4{-1}, which began on January 4, 2022.
• Wave 4{-1} is the next-to-the-last wave within a large expanding Diagonal Triangle, wave 5{0}, that began on December 26, 2018
• When wave 4{-1} is complete, wave 5{-1} will begin and will carry the wave above the January 4 high, 4808.25, and into the 6000s, where the present upper boundary of the triangle lies. The expanding part means that each day that upper boundary moves higher.

We Are Here.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 12/26/2018, 2346.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures and index:
• 4{-1} Minor, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down) (futures), 4818.62 (down) (index)
• S&P 500 Futures:
• 1{-2} Minute, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-3} Minuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 1{-5} Micro, 1/4/2022, 4808.25 (down)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 8/16/2022, 4327.50 (down)
• 3{-7} Minuscule, 2/2/2023, 4208.50 (down)

Learning and other resources. Elliott wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 17, 2023

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.