3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching 6943.50 and then consolidating below that high.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave D{-11} within falling wave C{-10} continues. The next upside decision point is 6946.99; acceptance above it would point to a further push toward 6978.31. A rollover that breaks back below 6915.82 would be the first sign that falling wave E{-11} is beginning and that the market is resuming the larger corrective decline.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, rebounding from 6751.50 into the 6870 area, and are currently consolidating in the mid-6850s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory counts the rebound as wave D{-11}, the next-to-last subwave within falling wave C{-10}. That larger C{-10} decline remains a subwave of falling wave C{-9}, all within declining wave 4{-8} (the correction that began January 13).

Targets and decision points.

• Upside cap for D{-11}: The first resistance zone is 6864.50–6870. A push above 6870 that holds would open the door to 6884.79, and then 6915.82–6922. Sustained trade above 6915.82–6922 would weaken the “D{-11} is the next-to-last subwave” assumption and suggest a larger rebound is unfolding.
• Downside path for E{-11}: If the rally is topping, the first rollover tell is a break back under 6846, followed by 6823.14. Below that, the next magnets are 6792–6800, then 6762, and ultimately a retest of 6751.50 (with a possible brief undercut toward 6731.70).

What comes next? When D{-11} is complete, E{-11} should unfold as the final decline that completes C{-10}. That, in turn, can also complete C{-9} and potentially 4{-8}. The main caveat is corrective complexity: sometimes the market resolves a correction with a more complex, multi-part structure rather than a single clean completion — not the base case here, but always a live possibility.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)
  • C{-10} (none), 2/3/2026, 7027.25 (down)
  • D{-11} (none), 2/5/2026, 6751.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 6, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell sharply during the session, reaching a low of 6801.50 and then rising back into the 6870s and once again declining.

Elliott Wave Theory: The decline remains consistent with falling wave C{-10} within falling wave C{-9} within wave 4{-8}. All three remain downward unless price can reclaim and hold above the prior breakdown shelf (mid-to-upper 6860s) for more than a brief bounce.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined overnight, sliding from an early peak of 6935.25 down into the 6830s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: The principal wave in play remains wave 4{-6}, the upward correction that began October 10, 2025 at 6540.25. Wave 4{-6} is taking the form of an expanding triangle, so each successive subwave makes a larger swing (higher highs and lower lows) as the structure matures.

Within that triangle, wave C{-7} (the third of five triangle legs) is still the active leg—but C{-7} is currently being dragged down by its internal correction, wave 4{-8}.

Zooming in:

• Wave 4{-8} is unfolding as a three-part decline, and is now in its final segment, wave C{-9}.
• Wave C{-9} is subdividing lower, and within it we are in wave C{-10} (the down-leg that followed the 2/3 peak at 7027.25). Your 30-minute chart continues to support this: A{-10} bottomed 2/1 at 6864.50, B{-10} peaked 2/3 at 7027.25, and price is now pressing lower in C{-10}.

Practical read / levels.

• The market is still acting like “B-wave churn turning into C-wave pressure.”
• 6864.50 (the 2/1 low) is the near-term line in the sand. A clean break and failure to reclaim it keeps C{-10} in control and opens the door toward the prior low near 6814.50 (1/21).
• A recovery back above 6935.25 would ease the immediate downside pressure, but the larger confirmation/invalidation remains unchanged: 7043 is still the key “B{-9} strength” level on your map.

This morning’s economics darta release was seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims, which rose to 231,000 (+22,000) and the 4-week average increased to 212,250; insured unemployment is 1.844M (+25,000) with the insured unemployment rate unchanged at 1.2%. Initial Jobless Claims 20250205 It’s not “crisis,” but it adds a small tailwind to risk-off tone in a week where other jobs data are disrupted.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 5, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures sold off sharply during the session, then bounced off the lows, trading near 6922.

Elliott Wave Theory: The decline strengthens the case that falling wave C{-9} is underway. The alternative—another push higher within the broader B{-9} correction—remains possible, but still unconfirmed without a decisive move back above 7043 (the January 27 high). At the {-10} degree, the prior labeling implied wave B{-10} moved below the end of wave A{-10}, which is not allowed. To resolve that, I’m marking the February 3 peak (7027.25) as the end of wave B{-10}, and labeling the subsequent decline as wave C{-10}, now underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise overnight, from 6931.25 to 6965.75.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory reads the overnight rise as a subwave of wave B{-10}, which is itself a subwave of wave C{-9}—the final subwave of wave 4{-8}, the downward correction that began on January 13.

A characteristic of Elliott Wave Theory is that it identifies patterns that have occurred, and patterns that tend to follow—but it does not attach those patterns to time or distance. So an ongoing wave can look “done” when it isn’t, and a completed wave can look “still underway” when it isn’t. Only the passage of time (and the next confirmations/invalidations) can unravel the ambiguity.

As noted in yesterday’s analysis, labeling the decline that began on January 27 as falling wave C{-9} remains tentative. It is still possible that the decline is a subwave of rising wave B{-9}.

Here are the decision points.

Upside confirmation (B{-9} revival / C{-9} doubt increases):

1. 6965.75 (overnight high):
   • A clean push above and hold above suggests B{-10} is still extending upward (more than just noise).
2. 7009–7027.25 (resistance band; 2/3 high marked 7027.25):
   • Reclaiming this area would materially weaken the “we’re already in C{-9} down” narrative.
3. 7043 (Jan 27 high = the “line in the sand” you’ve been using):
   • Above 7043 = strongest confirmation that B{-9} is still underway (and that the late-Jan/early-Feb drop was corrective inside it, not the start of a larger C{-9} decline).

Downside confirmation (C{-9} strengthens / 4{-8} still working lower):

1. 6931.25 (overnight low):
   • A decisive break below, with no quick reclaim, is your near-term signal that the overnight pop was just a subwave and sellers are regaining control.
2. 6915–6916 area (near the next visible shelf on your 30m scale):
   • Losing this tends to open the door to a fast test of the bigger lows.
3. 6886 (2/3 low):
   • Below 6886 is the first “serious” confirmation that the market is leaning into the C{-9} path again.
4. 6864.50 (2/1 low):
   • Below 6864.50 strengthens the case that C{-9} is not just “possible,” but actively pushing toward completion of 4{-8}.
5. 6814.50 (1/21 low):
   • A break of 6814.50 would be a major escalation: it argues the correction is not finishing—it’s extending.

Practically speaking: Until the price leaves the 6931–6966 overnight box decisively, the most honest label is still “range + ambiguity.”

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 25-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 4, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall at a rapid pace during the session, extending the decline from the pre-session peak at 7027.25 down to a session low so far of 6886.25.

Elliott Wave Theory: Today’s selloff is large enough, in my view, to justify switching the wave labels—but with a caveat. I’ve seen declines this deep reverse, reclaim the entire move, and finish the day surging higher. So this is a working count, not a final verdict.

With that caveat in mind, here’s the updated analysis: the January 27 peak at 7043 is now treated as the end of rising wave B{-9}, and the decline from that high is treated as the start of falling wave C{-9}, which appears to still be underway. I have not labeled the C{-9} subwaves yet, but I’ve marked two turning points with dates as likely candidates.

Decision points under this new analysis: If C{-9} is truly underway, price should have difficulty reclaiming key resistance zones, and it should eventually break the remaining supports.

Bullish invalidation (B{-9} revived): A push back toward 7027.25 would put the C{-9} label under pressure, and a decisive move above 7043 would invalidate the “B{-9} ended” call and restore B{-9} as the dominant count.

Bearish confirmation path (C{-9} strengthens): A decisive break and hold below today’s low (6886.25) would be the next “this is still trending down” signal. Below that, the next major decision point is the January 21 low at 6814.50—a break of that level would strongly support the C{-9} case.

“Churn / not done” path: A rebound that regains and holds the mid-range (first back above the 6900s, then into the 6960s–6990s zone) would reduce confidence that today is a clean, one-direction C{-9} impulse.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded between 7002.50 and 7027.25 overnight and, as of the latest bar, remain in a net sideways range (around 7015).

What does it mean? In Elliott Wave terms, yesterday’s rise increased the likelihood that rising wave B{-9} (begun January 21) is still underway. However, the market has not yet pushed above 7043 (the January 27 high), so the alternative scenario remains open: that B{-9} ended at 7043 and declining wave C{-9} has begun. Until price makes a decisive move—above 7043 to confirm B{-9}, or back down through key supports to strengthen C{-9}—the B{-9} count remains the status quo.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 25-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • C{-9} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 3, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 a.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise during the session, so far reaching 7017.25.

Elliott Wave Theory. Today’s rise moves price closer to a level that would confirm that rising wave B{-9} is still underway. That confirmation level remains 7043 (the January 27 high).

The alternative scenario—that the January 27 peak marked the start of declining wave C{-9}—remains possible, but still unproven. Until price makes a decisive move (above 7043 to confirm B{-9}, or back down through the key supports you’ve been tracking to strengthen the C{-9} case), I’m keeping the B{-9} count on the chart as the status quo.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to 6965.75 when trading resumed overnight, then quickly reversed and fell to 6864.50. From that low it began to rise again, and as the opening bell approached it was trading in the 6940s.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory question from last week remains unanswered so far this week: is rising wave B{-9} still underway, or did the January 27 peak at 7043 mark the start of declining wave C{-9}?

Both alternatives are subwaves of wave 4{-8}, a falling corrective wave that is itself part of wave C{-7}, a subwave within rising corrective wave 4{-6}. Most corrections have three subwaves, but wave 4{-6} will likely have five, because it is taking the form of an expanding triangle.

At this point, the question of which wave is underway will be clarified by where price goes next:

• A decisive rise above 7043 (the January 27 high) supports the view that wave B{-9} is still underway.
• A decisive decline below 6898 increases the odds that wave C{-9} is underway, and a further decline below 6814.50 would add weight to that scenario.

Meanwhile: until there is a decisive move, I’m retaining the wave B{-9} scenario on the chart as the status quo, unless and until it is overturned by events.

---

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 140-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 2, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded lower during the session, reaching a high of 6995 and a low of 6917.50. It is currently trading at 6956.75, back near the middle of the day’s range.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave B{-9} within falling corrective wave 4{-8} continues. Today’s decline did not break the larger structure; it reinforced the idea that price remains in a choppy, two-sided zone rather than transitioning into a clean directional move.

Decision levels: A clean break and hold below 6917.50 would strengthen the case that the correction is resolving lower. A sustained push back above 6995 would argue that B{-9} is regaining control.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a low overnight of 6917.50 and then returned to the 6970s. At the opening bell, the price rose higher, briefly, to 6981.

What does it mean? The price remains in the zone of ambiguity when it comes to Elliott Wave Theory analysis. The question of the moment, is rising wave B{-9} still underway. It’s the second subwave of falling corrective wave 4{-8}. Or did wave B{-9} end on January 27 at 7043 and declining wave C{-9} begin.

Based on analysis of turning points, a fall below 6898.25 strengthens the case that wave C{-9} has begun, and a rise above 6985.75 suggests that wave B{-9} is still underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 110-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 30, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures dropped sharply during the session, falling from 7010.75 to 6898.25. Reports tied the selloff to a post-earnings repricing in Microsoft, where the market reacted less to the headline “beat” and more to concerns about the pace of cloud growth. Microsoft is a top-three S&P 500 weight (roughly 5%), so a fast downgrade in that one name can move the entire index.

Elliott Wave Theory. Today’s drop has the right “impulse feel” to be more than routine B-wave chop. In particular, the decline broke below 6985.75 (the overnight low) and printed a new low at 6898.25. That combination argues the market may have ended rising wave B{-9} (from the 1/21 low) and begun declining wave C{-9}, both subwaves of falling corrective wave 4{-8}.

Has wave C{-9} actually begun? The working answer is: possibly—but we can demand confirmation. B-waves can throw ugly spikes, but a true C-wave tends to behave differently: it usually does not allow price to casually reclaim broken supports. The first “tell” is whether the market can recover and hold above the breakdown zone. If rebounds stall quickly and the market returns to making lower lows, that strengthens the C{-9} case.

Here are today’s important decision levels.

• Downside confirmation: The day’s low at 6898.25 is now the near-term pivot. A decisive break below 6898.25 (and failure to reclaim it quickly) would reinforce that C{-9} is underway and is gaining traction.
• First reclaim test: 6985.75 (the prior overnight low) is the first big “line back in.” If price can reclaim 6985.75 and hold it, the market is telling you this selloff may be a spike within B{-9} churn, not a sustained C{-9} leg.
• Structure reset / “back to chop”: The larger reset level is the prior support band around 7010–7015. A clean reclaim and hold back above that zone would argue the market is not yet in a directional C-wave, and that B{-9} complexity may still be playing out.
• Upside invalidation of the “B{-9} ended” idea (strong form): A push back toward 7043 (the B{-9} high) that holds would strongly weaken the “C{-9} has begun” thesis and suggest B{-9} is extending again.

Below 6985.75, the burden of proof shifts to the bulls; below 6898.25, the chart starts to act like C{-9}.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell early overnight to 6985.75 and then rose to 7029.50, thereafter fluctuating from around 7000 into 7020s.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory analysis remains unchanged since January 21. Rising wave B{-9} is underway, the second subwave within falling corrective wave 4{-8}.

Here are today’s important decision levels. On the upside, the market must reclaim and hold above 7029.50 (the overnight high) to show buyers still have control. The real “line in the sand” is 7043: a clean push above 7043 that holds would argue wave B{-9} is extending and the market is aiming higher. On the downside, the first tell is 7015: if price falls below 7015 and cannot quickly reclaim it, the tone shifts from “chop” to “heavy.” The hard risk line is the overnight low at 6985.75— a decisive break below 6985.75 would be the first signal that the market may be transitioning from B-wave churn into something more directional down.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 160-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 29, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The big event of the day was the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on interest rates — they held them steady — and the S&P 500 Futures responded within a narrow range.

Elliott Wave Theory: Now underway, rising wave B{-9) within a declining correction, wave 4{-8}.Today’s FOMC volatility looked more like event-driven noise inside the existing range than a structural change in trend. A decisive break below 6991.25 that does not quickly recover would be the first sign that the market is shifting from choppy B-wave action into a more directional decline. Conversely, a push back above 7043 would signal renewed strength in the current rising wave.

The market gave a fast down-spike, ending at 6991.25 during Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference and then stabilized around the 7005 to 7010 range.

Until one of those levels breaks cleanly, the safest assumption is that the market remains in range and prone to sudden reversals.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rallied overnight to 7043, then backed off into the 7010s–7020s.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave count is unchanged: rising B{-9} continues as a countertrend rally inside falling 4{-8}. The larger structure still sits inside rising C{-7} within the upward correction 4{-6}.

Today’s key economic event is the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Markets often swing sharply around both releases.

Levels to watch. 7043 is the current B{-9} high; holding above the 6994 pivot keeps the B-wave thesis cleaner.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 160-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 28, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching a high of 7018.50.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave B{-9} within declining corrective wave 4{-8} continues.

A sustained move above 6994 keeps the upside case intact.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from 6997 at the closing bell to a peak so far of 7006.50. From that point the price declined into the 6990s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees wave B{-9} as continuing its rise. Yesterday’s rise suggested that the wave had more upside remaining, and the facts on the chart confirmed that insight. At this point, a new question arises: Was the overnight peak the end of wave B{-9} and has wave C{-9} begun?

Wave B{-9} is a subwave of wave 4{-8}, which in turn is a subwave of wave C{-7}, which began on November 21, 2025, from 6525. The parent wave is wave 4{-6}, which began on October 10, 2025 from 6540.25.

Each leg of wave 4{-6} so far has moved beyond the previous high or low of prior waves moving in the same direction, suggesting that the wave is taking the form of an Expanding Triangle. That form has five subwaves. Wave 4{-6} is in its C subwave, which is rising. Looking ahead, I expected wave C{-7} to move beyond the peak of wave A{-7}, 6953.75 on October 29 — which it did on January 21. Falling wave D{-7} will fall below the end point of wave B{-7}, 6525. And rising wave E{-7} will complete wave 4{-6} when it moves beyond the prior rising subwave, wave C{-7}, now underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 160-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 27, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching 6995.50. As noted in this morning’s analysis, holding above 6994 strengthens the case that the current move is advancing rather than fading.

Elliott Wave Theory: The market remains in rising wave B{-9} within declining corrective wave 4{-8}. In Elliott Wave Theory, B waves are corrective structures and are typically composed of three internal swings (though they can become more complex). On today’s chart, wave B{-9} appears to be progressing into its later internal phase, consistent with an unfolding bounce within a larger correction. The next upside reference remains 7036.25; a drop back below 6994 would weaken today’s signal and return the tape to range-first behavior.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened the overnight session with a sharp drop to 6879, then reversed higher, climbing back above 6950.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave context remains range-bound and corrective. The overnight low held above 6866.75 (the 1/2 pivot), so the market has not confirmed a breakdown in the current bounce. But the rebound is still below 6994 (12/26 pivot), so it has not confirmed a strong upside continuation either.

Bottom line. The chart remains indecisive, and the working lineup stays: Rising wave B{-9} within declining corrective wave 4{-8}, within rising wave C{-7}, within rising corrective wave 4{-6}. Key tells: Below 6866.75 = B{-9} likely fails / 4{-8} reasserts. Above 6994 = B{-9} strengthens (next reference: 7036.25).

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 100-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 26, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com