9:35 a.m. New York time
What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened the week with a large relief gap after reports of a U.S.-Iran framework agreement and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The futures closed Friday at 7436.25 and opened Sunday evening at 7562.25, then rose overnight to 7602.25.
As the opening bell sounded, it began to rise further, travelling above 7610..
The gap and subsequent rise leaves two immediate decision areas: acceptance above the Sunday open and high, or a reversal that begins filling the gap toward Friday’s close.
What does it mean? The upward gap, when Elliott Wave Theory is applied, reduces the likelihood that falling wave E{-5} has begun, and increases the odds that rising wave D{-5} is still underway. The switch from D{-5}, the next-to-last wave within downward correction wave 4{-4}, to final downward wave E{-5} was never confirmed.
The peak that still might be the end of wave D{-5} was 7632.25 on June 1, and the present rise has not yet gone that high.
Decision Points. A rise above 7602.25, Sunday night’s high so far, would show continued acceptance of the relief gap and would put the June 1 peak of 7632.25 back in play. A rise above 7632.25 would strongly increase the odds that wave D{-5} is still underway.
A fall below Sunday’s open at 7562.25 would weaken the gap’s bullish message and begin to shift attention toward a gap fill. A fall to Friday’s close at 7436.25 would fill the gap and revive the E{-5} case. A decline below Friday’s low at 7366.50 would strengthen the E{-5} analysis, although full confirmation would still require a break below the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.
Bottom line: The gap is a serious challenge to the E{-5} interpretation, but not yet a confirmed restoration of D{-5}. The decisive upper level remains 7632.25.
The Chart. The chart focuses on waves D{-5} and E{-5}, the last two subwaves of wave 4{-4}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 2-hour bars with volume]
Waves Now Underway
These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
- S&P 500 Index:
- 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
- 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
- 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
- 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
- 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
- 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
- S&P 500 E-mini futures
- 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
- 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
- E{-5} Micro, 6/1/2026, 7632.25 (down}
- A{-6} Submicro, 6/1/2026, 7632.25 (down}
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his bookScience and Sanity(1933), “Themapis not theterritory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 15, 2026
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.
Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.
Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.
All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
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