3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a session peak of 7166.25. The price fell from that level into the 7140s. Basically, the futures barely budged.

Elliott Wave Theory. Wave D{-5} remains underway. The entire rise reached a peak of 7185.75 on April 17, and today’s high, rounded up to the whole dollar, reached 20 points below that level before pulling back.

I’ve pulled the chart back to the long view, in part to see the size of the recent market movements compared to the entirety of the parent wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 from 6954.76. In terms of size, the recent drama in the futures have been like the scratching of a cockroach on a large kitchen floor. Noticeable, but without directional clarity for wave D{-5}.

As has been mentioned many times before, wave 4{-4} is taking the form of an expanding triangle, where each wave extends beyond the previous wave in its respective direction.

One trick of the trade in Elliott Wave Theory for understanding the likely endpoints of subwaves in expanding triangles is to connect the start of subwave A and the start of subwave C with a line, and do the same with the end of subwave A and the end of subwave C. Each line continues on, each providing a likely turning point for wave D and E within the expanding triangle. Sometimes the price moves a significant distance beyond the line. Sometimes it comes up short. Most of the time, in my experience, the turn occurs close to the line.

On this chart, the upper line is where the rise of wave D has stalled in the last few days. If wave E takes the same time in its downward journey as wave D took in its rise, the end of wave E and of the wave 4 corrective pattern will occur at around the 6300 level.

Decision Points.
A sustained move above 7185.75 would indicate that wave D{-5} is extending higher and has not yet reached its end.

Failure to break that level, combined with continued hesitation beneath it, keeps open the possibility that wave D{-5} is nearing completion along the upper boundary of the triangle.

On the downside, a break below the recent consolidation range in the 7120–7130 area would be an early indication that the market is resolving lower. A more decisive move below 7090 would begin to confirm that wave E{-5} is underway.

Bottom line: Price is pressing against the upper boundary of the expanding triangle but has not broken through. Until either 7185.75 gives way or downside levels begin to fail, the market remains in a holding pattern at a structurally important location.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures stair-stepped higher overnight, from a low of 7121.25 shortly after the closing bell on Tuesday to a high of 7157.25.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory places this rise within wave D{-5}, a rising subwave of wave 4{-4}, a larger downtrending correction that began on October 28, 2025. Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, with five subwaves labeled A through E, each composed of three smaller waves.

There is, however, a lack of clarity in the current structure. One interpretation is that wave D{-5} ended on April 17 at 7185.75, and that declining wave E{-5} has already begun.

Yet the price action since that high does not convincingly support that view. Compared with the full advance of wave D{-5} from 6353.25, the pullback so far is shallow and tentative. It does not yet resemble the kind of sustained decline that would be expected if wave E{-5} were underway and ultimately headed toward the 6300s or lower.

This creates a conundrum: the wave count allows for the start of E{-5}, but the price behavior does not yet confirm it. As a result, both possibilities remain in play. The market is, for now, moving sideways within that uncertainty.

Decision Points. 

• 7185.75 (April 17 high): A sustained move above this level would strongly suggest that wave D{-5} is still in progress and extending higher, invalidating the immediate start of wave E{-5}.
• 7157–7160 area (overnight high): Short-term resistance. Repeated failure here would reinforce the idea of a maturing or exhausted advance.
• 7120–7130 area: Near-term support. A break below this range would signal that the current sideways structure is resolving downward.
• 7090–7100 area: A decisive move below this level would begin to shift the weight of evidence toward wave E{-5} being underway, especially if followed by continued lower lows.
• Bottom line: Price remains range-bound beneath the April 17 high. A break above that high favors continued upside within D{-5}; a sustained move below 7090 would begin to confirm the transition to E{-5}. Until one of those levels gives way, the market is marking time rather than declaring direction.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 5-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 22, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell sharply during the session, reaching 7096.75 after peaking overnight at 7183. A rebound then carried the price back into the 7130s, but that rise faded and the decline resumed.

Elliott Wave Theory. The overnight high fell just short of Monday’s peak at 7185.75, and the sharp reversal that followed strongly suggests that rising wave D{-5} has reached its end. If that is the case, then declining wave E{-5} is now underway. Wave E{-5} is expected to be the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, the expanding triangle correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Why “expected to be”? Sometimes a correction takes a complex path, containing two or three corrective patterns within it. So if the encompassing corrective parent wave, 4{-4}, turns out to be complex, we may have some time to go before the 4th-wave correction reaches its end.

In expanding triangles, each subwave moves beyond the price that ended the prior subwave heading in the same direction. In this case, wave C{-5} ended on March 30 at 6353.25. How much beyond that will wave E{-5} decline? No way to tell. If it moves one point — 25 cents — beyond that level, it has fulfilled the requirement of Elliott Wave Theory and can go to rest. Or it can move a significant distance beyond.

Decision Points. A recovery above 7150–7160 would suggest that the decline is not yet firmly established and could lead to further choppy trading. A move above 7185.75 would invalidate the view that wave D{-5} has ended and would point to further upside. On the downside, a break below today’s low at 7096.75 would strengthen the case that wave E{-5} is underway, with further declines likely to follow.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued rising overnight, from a low reached right after Monday’s closing bell, to a high of 7183, attained as Tuesday’s session approached the opening bell. The price then retreated rapidly back into the 7160 and then further, into the 7140s, minutes after the opening bell.

What does it mean? The high is $2.75 below Monday’s peak since wave D{-5} began on March 30. The rising wave remains underway, although it appears to be nearing its end.

Wave D{-5} is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle. In that structure, each subwave, A through E, unfolds in three parts. Wave D{-5} will therefore be followed by declining wave E{-5}, which will carry wave 4{-4} to its conclusion.

Decision Points. A move above 7185.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} continues to rise and allow for further, likely limited, gains. Repeated failure in the 7180–7185 range would suggest that the wave is nearing completion. A decline below 7145–7150 would provide the first indication that wave E{-5} to the downside may be underway, with a break below 7100 offering stronger confirmation that the trend has turned.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 21, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, although tentatively, reaching into the 7140s. The peak so far in the rise that began on March 30 remains 7185.75, set on Friday, April 17.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis remains unchanged from this morning. As the Earthling Valentine Michael Smith, raised by Martians after the spacecraft upon which he was born crashed in Robert Heinlein’s 1961 masterwork Stranger in a Strange Land would say, “Waiting is.”

Decision Points. The market remains within the same decision range identified this morning. A move above 7185.75 would confirm that the upward leg is continuing. A decline below 7085, today’s opening low, would argue that the rise has ended and that the next downward leg is underway. Between those levels, the price action remains inconclusive.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures resumed trading with an opening gap that carried the price from Friday’s high at 7185.75 down to a low of 7085 in the first five minutes of trading Monday. The price then rose modestly into the 7110s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis suggests that rising wave D{-5} is still underway. However, additional upward movement is needed to confirm that interpretation.

Wave D{-5} is the next-to-the-last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. That fourth wave has taken the form of an expanding triangle, in which each advancing wave rises above the prior peak and each declining wave falls below the prior low.

Decision Points. The key question is whether the market can resume the upward path required to complete wave D{-5}. A move above 7185.75, Friday’s high, would confirm that the uptrend remains intact and that wave D{-5} is extending higher. Failure to reach that level, followed by a decline below the overnight low near 7085, would argue that wave D{-5} has already peaked and that the next downward leg of the triangle is underway. Between those levels, the price action remains indeterminate, with the market marking time rather than signaling direction.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 20, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures has risen to 7185.75 during the session, a higher peak in the uptrend that began on March 30 from 6353.75. It then fell back slightly, to the 7150s.

Elliott Wave Theory: Wave D{-5} continues to rise, with no clear sign of completion. .

Decision Points: A continued move above today’s high at 7185.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} is still advancing. On the downside, a break below the recent support zone in the 7040s would be the first indication that the advance has ended and that wave E{-5} may be underway. Until then, the upward trend remains intact.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise overnight from yesterday’s session low at 7047.50, reaching into the 7130s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis continues to label the advance as wave D{-5}, the fourth subwave of an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, that began on March 30. In this formation, each subwave exceeds the extreme of the prior wave moving in the same direction.

Each subwave subdivides into three waves. The current advance has been strong enough that its internal structure lacks clarity at lower degrees. Tentatively, the rise appears to be in wave C{-6}. If that labeling holds, completion of C{-6} would also complete D{-5}, setting the stage for declining wave E{-5}.

An alternate interpretation remains viable: the entire advance from March 30 could instead be a larger wave A{-6}. At present, price action has not forced a distinction between these counts.

Decision Points. The immediate question is whether the current rise is nearing completion as wave D{-5}, or whether it is part of a larger and still-unfolding advance.

On the upside, a sustained move above 7147.50 — the current overnight high — would argue that wave D{-5} is still extending, with no clear sign yet of a transition into wave E{-5}. Continued strength above that level keeps the upward path open.

On the downside, a break back below 7047.50 — yesterday’s session low and the start of the latest leg up — would be the first indication that the advance has ended and that wave E{-5} may be underway.

From a broader perspective, failure to produce a clear three-wave structure at lower degrees, combined with continued upward extension, would increasingly favor the alternate count: that the entire move is a larger wave A{-6}, not a subwave within a triangle.

Until one of these levels is decisively exceeded, the market remains within the ambiguity typical of late-stage triangle development.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} (none), 4/1/2026, 6767 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 17, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures have continued their upward movement during the session, reaching a peak of 7089.

Elliott Wave Theory. No change from this morning. Wave D{-5} continues its stair-step advance, with overlapping price action and no clear impulsive subdivision. The structure remains consistent with a corrective rise within the larger 4{-4} pattern.

Decision Points. Here’s the list.

Below 6950: Would suggest that wave D{-5} has ended and that wave E{-5} to the downside is underway.

Above 7089: Keeps wave D{-5} advancing, with no indication yet of completion.

Below 7050: First sign that upward momentum is weakening.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued rising overnight, reaching a peak of 7078.50 before easing slightly into the 7060s–7070s range. The 8:30 a.m. Initial Jobless Claims release has not produced a visible market response.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: Wave D{-5} continues to rise. It began on March 30 from 6353.25 and remains a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a larger corrective pattern that started on October 29, 2025 at 6953.75.

Wave D{-5} continues its stair-step advance. The internal structure remains indistinct at one lower degree, but the upward progression continues without evidence of completion.” The advance is overlapping and corrective in appearance, suggesting that any finer labeling would be speculative rather than analytical. In this case, the larger-degree structure provides the more reliable guide.

Decision Points. The key question remains how far wave D{-5} can extend within the larger corrective structure.

• Above 7078.50: Confirms continuation of wave D{-5}, with room for further upside typical of an expanding triangle leg.
• Sustained trade below 7040–7050: Would be the first sign that upward momentum is weakening and that wave D{-5} may be approaching completion.
• Break below 6950: Would strongly suggest that wave D{-5} has ended and that wave E{-5} to the downside is underway.

Until a reversal signal develops, the structure favors continued upward drift within wave D{-5}, with the understanding that this remains a corrective move inside a larger pattern.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 16, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures have moved above 7043, the last major turning point, and into the 7050s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The last turning point marked the beginning of wave A{-6}. That wave ended on March 30 at 6353.25, and wave B{-6} began. It is that rising wave B{-6} that has now moved above the beginning of wave A{-6}, and that breaks a rule of Elliott Wave Theory.

Waves A{-6} and B{-6} had been labeled as subwaves of wave C{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of corrective wave 4{-4}, taking the form of an expanding triangle.

It is a firm rule of Elliott Wave Theory that in an expanding triangle, a rising B wave cannot move above the start of the previous A wave. If it does, then the chart’s wave labeling is wrong. The map no longer matches the terrain, and it is the map that must change. Always.

I have changed the labels to eliminate the error. What had been wave A{-6} becomes declining wave C{-5}, one degree higher. And the present wave B{-6} becomes wave D{-5}, the next-to-last subwave of wave 4{-4}.

The observation of Robert Prechter, who helped revive the popularity of Elliott Wave Theory in 1978 at a time when that remarkable tool had nearly been forgotten, says it well: “No subwave has been observed to subdivide into a triangle.” The triangle form is reserved for the parent wave, not its subwaves.

Decision Points. The next question is whether rising wave D{-5} is nearing completion or still has room to run. Continued strength above 7043 would keep the present interpretation intact and point toward additional upside within wave D{-5}. A reversal downward from the current area would suggest that wave D{-5} is ending and that declining wave E{-5}, the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, may be beginning. The higher this rise goes before turning, the more room there would be for that final decline.

New labels chart (current version).

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 P.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined overnight to 6991.75 and then rose to the 7010s — at one point spiking to 7018 and immediately withdrawing. The price rose sharply as the opening bell still echoed, reaching 7024.25 and then falling back.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees wave B{-6} as continuing, although the wave appears to be in its end game and losing the energy needed to sustain the rise. It may regain that energy and push higher, or it may fail and turn down. At this stage, the structure remains incomplete, and the outcome uncertain.

Decision Points. A sustained move above 7018 would indicate that wave B{-6} is extending and could open the way toward the 7025–7040 resistance zone. Failure in the 7010–7020 area, followed by a lower high, would be an early indication that the wave is topping. A break below 6990 would signal increasing downside pressure, and a move below 6950 would provide stronger evidence that a downward wave C{-6} is underway.

Former labels chart (now outdated).

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 15, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the opening bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures have continued their rise, extending beyond prior expectations and pressing toward levels that raise questions about the current wave labeling.

What does it mean? The issue centers on how an expanding triangle behaves under Elliott Wave Theory, and how far its internal waves can stretch.

At the top level, an expanding triangle consists of five legs—A, B, C, D, and E. Each successive leg moves beyond the prior extreme in the same direction, creating the widening shape that defines the pattern. In that sense, “overruns” are not only allowed but required at the level of the triangle itself.

Each of those legs is also a corrective structure, typically composed of three subwaves. Within corrective patterns—particularly flats and more complex corrections—B waves can retrace all of wave A and, in some cases, move beyond its starting point.

The interaction between those two ideas is not explicitly set out in the standard Elliott Wave literature, including Elliott Wave Principle. The interpretation used here is a logical extension of those principles rather than a formal rule.

The practical question is whether the internal movement still preserves the overall geometry of the triangle. If the price action stretches in a way that distorts the recognizable A–B–C–D–E structure, then the labeling is no longer consistent with the chart.

In practical terms, the chart—not the rulebook—has the final say. If price movement materially exceeds what the current labeling can reasonably accommodate, then the map no longer matches the terrain, and the count must be revised.

Decision Points. The advance is now approaching a level where the current wave labeling is being tested. A continued rise that materially exceeds the start of wave A{-6} would weaken the case for the present interpretation and suggest that the count requires revision. On the downside, a break below the most recent intraday support—roughly the 6920 area—would be the first indication that the upward phase has lost momentum and that a transition toward a declining phase may be underway. Until one of those conditions is met, the working assumption remains that the current structure is still unfolding.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures resumed their rise overnight, reaching a new high within the advance that began on March 30. The overnight low was 6920.25, and the new high is 6949.50.

What does it mean? The new high confirms that wave B{-6} continues under Elliott Wave Theory analysis. The structure remains corrective and somewhat uneven, which is typical for B waves, but the upward progression is intact.

Decision Points. The immediate question is whether this advance is nearing completion or has further room to run. A sustained move above 6950 would strengthen the case for continued upside within wave B{-6}. Conversely, a break below the overnight low at 6920.25 would be the first indication that the upward phase may be ending and that a transition toward wave C{-6} could be underway. Until one of those levels is clearly broken, the working assumption remains that wave B{-6} is still in progress.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 14, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 6890s and eclipsing Friday’s peak.

Elliott Wave Theory. Wave B{-6} continues to rise, and the new high confirms it. All B waves within corrections consist of three subwaves. The present B wave remains somewhat messy in its internal structure, and confidence in the tentative {-7}-degree labels is low. For now, the larger structure takes precedence over the finer detail. As the standard guidance among Elliott Wave analysts puts it: Time will tell.

Decision Points. The immediate test lies at the former resistance level near 6888, now acting as support. A sustained hold above that level would reinforce the view that wave B{-6} is extending and could carry higher in the near term. Conversely, a move back below 6888 would weaken the breakout and raise the possibility that the advance is complete, opening the door to the next downward phase of the correction. Until that level is clearly resolved, the market remains in a transition between extension and reversal.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened with a significant downward gap. They closed on Friday at 6863.75, and when trading resumed Monday evening, fell in the first five minutes to an overnight low of 6770. They then retraced a portion of the decline, returning to the 6830s and 6840s as the opening bell sounded.

The move comes against a backdrop of failed U.S.-Iran negotiations and an announced U.S. plan to impose a blockade affecting Iranian oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis interprets the fall and subsequent rise as a rapid repricing of risk rather than a confirmed shift in trend. The rebound has not moved beyond the previous peak within wave B{-6}, the rise that began on March 30. It remains a counter-trend subwave within the larger downward corrective wave C{-5}, itself part of the broader wave 4{-4} correction.

After confirmation that no agreement had been reached, oil prices rose by 9% to $104 per barrel before easing back to $101. The decline and partial recovery in S&P 500 futures coincided with these fluctuations in oil prices.

Decision Points. The immediate test lies between the overnight low at 6770 and the retracement zone in the 6820s–6830s. A sustained move above that upper band would suggest the counter-trend rally within B{-6} is extending, delaying confirmation of the larger C{-5} decline. Conversely, a break back below 6770 would strengthen the case that wave C{-5} is underway, with lower levels likely to follow. Until one of those boundaries gives way, the market remains in a repricing range rather than a confirmed directional move.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 20-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 13, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose after the opening bell to a session high of 6888, then reversed sharply. The decline has now carried below the overnight low, reaching the mid-6850s.

Elliott Wave Theory’s principal analysis has been that rising wave B{-6} was continuing. This morning’s decline introduces the first meaningful challenge to that view, as the move lower is both impulsive in character and breaks prior short-term support.

At this stage, the decline can be interpreted in two ways. It may mark the beginning of declining wave C{-6}, which would be expected to unfold with sustained downside momentum. Alternatively, it may represent a deeper pullback within the still-active B{-6} rally.

The distinction has not yet been resolved. A single break of support, while significant, is not sufficient on its own to confirm a trend change. Confirmation would require a failed bounce followed by a lower high and continued downside movement.

Decision Points. A recovery back above the 6875–6888 zone would favor the view that rising wave B{-6} remains in force. Conversely, a bounce that stalls below that zone and turns lower would strengthen the case that declining wave C{-6} is underway.

Until one of these conditions is met, the chart remains in transition and the analysis unchanged.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from 6874 to 6888 in the five minutes that began with the release of the Consumer Price Index and immediately fell back to the 6870s where it had begun. The CPI reported that prices in general rose 0.9% in March, compared to 0.3% in February. Energy prices rose by 10.9%, and gasoline prices by 21.2%.

What does it mean? The rise was cut short and so was any decline, which tells Elliott Wave Theory that rising wave B{-6} continues, but without a lot of directional energy.

Decision Points. The immediate resistance zone remains the CPI spike high at 6888; a sustained move above that level would support further extension of wave B{-6}. On the downside, support lies in the 6840–6850 range, which has contained the post-release pullback; a break below that zone would signal that the upward correction is weakening. A decline through 6780 would shift the balance toward the start of declining wave C{-6}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 115-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 10, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued rising during the session, reaching 6876, before pulling back into the mid-6840s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave B{-6} continues.

Decision Points. The advance remains intact while price holds above the session structure. A sustained move above 6876 would indicate continuation of the upward trend. A break below the late-session consolidation range would begin to weaken the current structure and raise the likelihood that wave C{-6} has begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued sideways overnight with a shallow downward drift. The market showed no meaningful response to the PCE inflation report with February data, reinforcing that current price action is being driven by forward expectations rather than backward-looking data.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory’s principal analysis holds that rising wave B{-6} continues. The alternative analysis treats yesterday’s high at 6847.25 as the end of wave B{-6} and the beginning of declining wave C{-6}.

Neither view has been confirmed. For now, I am retaining the B{-6}-continues analysis unless and until the chart provides clear evidence that wave C{-6} is underway.

Rising wave B{-6} is a subwave within declining wave C{-5}, which in turn is a subwave within corrective wave 4{-4}. That larger correction, which began on October 29, 2025, appears to be taking the form of an expanding triangle. The 4-hour futures chart below shows wave 4{-4} in its entirety from that starting point.

Decision Points. A move above 6847.25 keeps rising wave B{-6} intact and suggests further upside within the corrective structure. A sustained move below the recent support zone near 6780 strengthens the case that wave C{-6} is underway. Until one of these levels is clearly broken, the analysis remains in a zone of ambiguity.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 9, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com