9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to 7513 in the second hour after trading resumed Sunday evening, then recovered into the 7580s.

What does it mean? When Elliott Wave Theory is applied, it’s clear that rising wave D{-5} continues and is in its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}. When wave D{-5} is complete, downward wave E{-5} will begin, with three subwaves. When the final subwave of wave E{-5} is complete, it will mark the end of wave E{-5} and of its parent, wave 4{-4}, a downward correction.

Wave 4{-4} began on October 29, 2025, and is taking the form of an expanding triangle. Wave D{-5} began on March 30 from 6353.25. Within wave D{-5}, wave A{-6} ended June 2 at 7632.25, wave B{-6} ended June 11 at 7232.25, and wave C{-6} is now underway. The high so far within wave C{-6} is 7648.75, reached June 15.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75, the June 15 high, would extend wave C{-6} and keep wave D{-5} in force.

A fall below 7513, the low after Sunday evening’s reopening, would show only a deeper pullback within wave C{-6}. It would not, by itself, change the count.

The present count would require serious reconsideration only if the price develops a structure showing that wave D{-5} has ended and wave E{-5} has begun. The broader confirmation would come from a fall back below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle.

The Chart. I’ve changed the chart to the candlestick format. By using colors — green for rising bars and red for falling bars — the candlesticks make it easier to see subwaves. I’m also changing the bar size to something meaningful: daily bars, which improve the link between chart time and the daily cycle in the markets. Finally, the boundaries of the expanding triangle that has been underway since last year have been colored blue, the better to distinguish them from the candlesticks.

Today’s chart focuses on rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30 and is a subwave of downward correction wave 4{-4}. Wave 4{-4} began on October 29, 2025, and is taking the form of an expanding triangle, a somewhat uncommon form in which each upward swing moves higher than the upward swing before it, and each downward swing moves lower than the downward swing before it.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 22, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

Market Holiday. The U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for Juneteenth, a holiday celebrating the end of slavery. Trading of the S&P 500 futures will resume Sunday evening.

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traded narrowly in the 7530s to the 7570s, remaining below the session high, 7581.50. The peak in the rise that began on March 30 remains at 7648.75.

Elliott Wave Theory. The rise from March 30 is wave D{-5}, which is still underway.

Decision Points. The nearest upper decision point is the session high, 7581.50. A move above that level would extend the day’s rise but would not change the larger count. The larger upper decision point remains 7648.75; a move above that level would extend wave D{-5}.

The major lower decision point remains the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle. A break below that boundary would verify that wave D{-5} has ended and that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from 7504.25 into the 7560s overnight, reaching a high of 7568.25. The futures then fluctuated mostly within the 7530s to 7560s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave D{-5} continues. It began on March 30 and is the next-to-the-last subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, in which each rising subwave ends higher than the prior rising subwave, and each falling subwave ends lower than the prior falling subwave. It makes for a wave that covers a lot of territory, increasing in size as it progresses.

Decision Points. The immediate upper decision point is 7568.25. A move above that level would extend the overnight rise and increase the odds of a renewed challenge to the June 15 high of 7648.75. A move above 7648.75 would extend wave D{-5}.

The immediate lower decision point is 7504.25. A fall below that level would end the overnight rise and return attention to the pullback from 7648.75. The larger lower decision point remains the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle. A break below that boundary would verify that wave D{-5} has ended and that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

The Chart. The chart focuses on rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30 and is a subwave downward correction wave 4{-4}, which began on October 29, 2025.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 18, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures declined immediately after the Federal Open Market Committee said it was leaving interest rates unchanged. The statement was shorter and simpler than recent FOMC statements, a change that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh later described as intentional, and it omitted forward guidance. The decline quickly reversed, briefly recovering much of the loss, before the futures moved back into the 7490s.

Elliott Wave Theory. None of today’s movements were sufficient to change the current analysis: Wave D{-5} is underway and remains below its peak, 7648.75, attained on June 15.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would show that wave D{-5} is extending. A decline below today’s FOMC low of 7514.50 would strengthen the argument that upward momentum is weakening, but would not by itself confirm that wave D{-5} has ended. Confirmation would require a larger decline back below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle, which would support the view that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures bided their time overnight ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee announcement, rising from 7581.25 to 7612.50, and then giving up nearly all of the gains as they dropped back to the 7580s. The first FOMC interest-rate decision under the new Federal Reserve chair is scheduled for release at 2 p.m. ET.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis remains unchanged at this point: Rising wave D{-5} is underway and appears to be nearing its end. The next wave will be falling wave E{-5}, which will bring parent wave 4{-4} toward an ending. The 4th wave has taken the form of an Expanding Triangle.

Decision Points. A rise above the overnight high of 7612.50 would keep wave D{-5} active and raise the possibility of a test of the recent highs. A sustained move below the overnight low of 7581.25 would suggest that upward momentum is weakening. A larger decline back below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle would provide stronger evidence that wave D{-5} has ended and falling wave E{-5} is underway.

The Chart. The chart focuses on downward correction wave 4{-4}, which began on October 29, 2025.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 6-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his bookScience and Sanity(1933), “Themapis not theterritory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 17, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a daily high of 7636.75 as the opening bell approached and then fell during the session, reaching a low of 7598.75 as the closing bell drew near. The price then moved sideways in the low 7600s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The distance traveled in today’s decline is minuscule compared with the length of rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30 from 6353.25. By itself, the decline does not provide evidence that D{-5} has ended or that declining wave E{-5} has begun.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would extend D{-5} to a new high. A fall below 7598.75 would extend today’s intraday decline but would not, by itself, change the Elliott Wave analysis. Confirmation that E{-5} is underway would require a much larger decline, beginning with a break below the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose gently overnight, setting an early low of 7612 and reaching a high so far of 7636.75. The price remains below yesterday’s high, 7648.75, in the rise that began on March 30.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis continues to place the futures in rising wave D{-5}, the next-to-the-last subwave within downward correction wave 4{-4}, which began in October. When D{-5} is complete, declining wave E{-5} will begin. Most likely, E{-5} will carry the price into the 6350s or lower as it brings wave 4{-4} to an end.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would extend wave D{-5} and move its end point higher. A reversal from below that level would keep alive the possibility that D{-5} has already ended, although confirmation would require a much larger decline. The decisive downside level remains the upper boundary of the expanding triangle; a break below that boundary would confirm that wave E{-5} is underway.

In summary, wave D{-5} continues, but today’s overnight rise has not yet made a new D-wave high.

The Chart. The chart focuses on rising wave D{-5} within downward correction wave 4{-4}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his bookScience and Sanity(1933), “Themapis not theterritory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 16, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, moving above the June 1 high and reaching 7648.75, before returning to the low 7630s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The higher high resolves the ambiguity over which wave was underway: rising wave D{-5} or falling wave E{-5}, each a subwave within wave 4{-4}, the downward correction that began last October.

The new high confirms that wave D{-5} is still underway and that wave E{-5} remains in the future. Wave 4{-4} is in its next-to-last wave; future subwave E{-5} will be wave 4{-4}’s final subwave.

The new high could mark the end of wave D{-5}, or D{-5} may reach further heights. What matters to Elliott Wave Theory is that when the map no longer matches the terrain and the chart no longer matches the market, the analysis must be changed to bring the two back into sync.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would extend wave D{-5} and keep the present rise intact. A sustained fall below the prior June 1 high of 7632.25 would not undo today’s verification, but it would show that the breakout had lost its immediate force. A fall below Sunday’s open at 7562.25 would begin to weaken the gap’s bullish message. A return to Friday’s close at 7436.25 would fill the gap and bring the future E{-5} scenario back into the foreground. Full confirmation of wave E{-5}, however, would require a break below the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened the week with a large relief gap after reports of a U.S.-Iran framework agreement and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The futures closed Friday at 7436.25 and opened Sunday evening at 7562.25, then rose overnight to 7602.25.

As the opening bell sounded, it began to rise further, travelling above 7610..

The gap and subsequent rise leaves two immediate decision areas: acceptance above the Sunday open and high, or a reversal that begins filling the gap toward Friday’s close.

What does it mean? The upward gap, when Elliott Wave Theory is applied, reduces the likelihood that falling wave E{-5} has begun, and increases the odds that rising wave D{-5} is still underway. The switch from D{-5}, the next-to-last wave within downward correction wave 4{-4}, to final downward wave E{-5} was never confirmed.

The peak that still might be the end of wave D{-5} was 7632.25 on June 1, and the present rise has not yet gone that high.

Decision Points. A rise above 7602.25, Sunday night’s high so far, would show continued acceptance of the relief gap and would put the June 1 peak of 7632.25 back in play. A rise above 7632.25 would strongly increase the odds that wave D{-5} is still underway.

A fall below Sunday’s open at 7562.25 would weaken the gap’s bullish message and begin to shift attention toward a gap fill. A fall to Friday’s close at 7436.25 would fill the gap and revive the E{-5} case. A decline below Friday’s low at 7366.50 would strengthen the E{-5} analysis, although full confirmation would still require a break below the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

Bottom line: The gap is a serious challenge to the E{-5} interpretation, but not yet a confirmed restoration of D{-5}. The decisive upper level remains 7632.25.

The Chart. The chart focuses on wave 4{-4}, a downward correction, and it’s subwaves, including the one now underway, rising wave D{-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 6-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (UP}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his bookScience and Sanity(1933), “Themapis not theterritory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 15, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures spent the day moving past both upper and lower levels that can decide the analysis, yet neither move settled the question. See the Decision Points section, below, for details.on, below, for details.

Elliott Wave Theory is unchanged from the morning, and indeed, from earlier than the present week: Downward wave E{-5} continues, probably, but rising wave D{-5} could still be underway, maybe.

Decision Points. The futures moved beyond both of this morning’s nearby decision levels, first falling below 7374.75 and then rising above 7451.25. The result was motion without clarity. A rise above 7461.75 would increase the odds that wave D{-5} is still underway. A fall below 7366.50 would increase the odds that wave E{-5} is underway. The larger confirmation would still come from a return to the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} Expanding Triangle.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight to 7374.75 and then rose to 7451.25. They then fell back to the 7390s.

What does it mean? When Elliott Wave Theory is applied, the conclusion remains as foggy as it has been for nearly two weeks: Wave E{-5} is underway, unless wave D{-5} never ended.

Wave E{-5} is the final subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began last October. Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an Expanding Triangle, and that is part of the ambiguity. Wave D{-5} moved beyond the upper boundary of the triangle, which isn’t common behavior, and has yet to move back to the upper boundary.

Decision Points. A rise above 7451.25 would increase the odds that wave D{-5} is still underway. A fall below 7374.75 would increase the odds that wave E{-5} is underway. A return to the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle would provide the most useful evidence that wave E{-5} has begun.

The Chart. The chart focuses on wave 4{-4}, the parent of the wave now underway, wave E(-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 6-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• E{-5} Micro, 6/1/2026, 7632.25 (down}
• A{-6} Submicro, 6/1/2026, 7632.25 (down}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his bookScience and Sanity(1933), “Themapis not theterritory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 12, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traded slightly lower during much of the session, falling into the 7260s. They then rose sharply into the 7390s after reports that the United States was halting strikes on Iran.

Elliott Wave Theory. By the book, rises increase the odds that wave D{-5} remains underway, and falls increase the odds that wave E{-5} is in progress. However, moves based on changing war plans often appear to lack staying power. I shall continue to give greater weight to economic reports, such as those released today before the opening bell, which were followed by a decline in the futures.

Bottom line: The labeling is unchanged: Declining wave E{-5} remains underway, and that appears to be the most likely interpretation of the chart. However, that conclusion has not yet been verified. It remains possible that rising wave D{-5} will reach a new high, confirming that it is still in progress.

Decision Points. A fall below the overnight low, 7232.25, would strengthen the E{-5} interpretation and bring the futures closer to verification by crossing below the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} Expanding Triangle. A move below that upper boundary would verify that wave D{-5} has ended and wave E{-5} is underway. A rise above today’s post-news high, 7386.50, would prolong the ambiguity but would not by itself invalidate the E{-5} count. A rise above the June 1 high, 7632.25, would invalidate the present E{-5} count and confirm that wave D{-5} is still underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures began overnight trading by dropping to 7232.25 and then reversing, rising to 7338.75 before pulling back.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to tentatively count the decline that began on June 1 from 7632.25 as wave E{-5}. The lower the futures go, the more likely the E-wave scenario becomes.

Wave E{-5} is the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an Expanding Triangle, meaning that each rising subwave rises above the preceding rising subwave, and each falling subwave falls below the preceding falling subwave.

Such triangles can be seen as having expanding boundaries, upper and lower, formed by connecting the peaks of the first two rising subwaves and the lows of the first two falling subwaves.

Sometimes price moves beyond those boundaries, and that is what happened with wave D{-5}, the next-to-the-last subwave within wave 4{-4}. Wave E{-5} remains slightly above the upper boundary. A move below that boundary would verify that rising wave D{-5} has ended and falling wave E{-5} has begun.

Decision Points. A move below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle, now near the low 7200s, would verify the E{-5} count. A move below the overnight low, 7232.25, would bring that verification closer. A rise above the overnight high, 7338.75, would not disprove the E-wave count, but would prolong the ambiguity. A rise above the June 1 high, 7632.25, would invalidate the present E{-5} count and show that wave D{-5} was still underway.

The Chart. The chart focuses on wave D{-5} and the wave now underway, wave E(-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• E{-5} Micro, 6/1/2026, 7632.25 (down}
• A{-6} Submicro, 6/1/2026, 7632.25 (down}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his bookScience and Sanity(1933), “Themapis not theterritory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 11, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose to 7404.75 early in the session and then reversed, falling so far to a session low of 7276.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline supports the interpretation that wave E{-5} continues its early fall within the larger wave 4{-4} Expanding Triangle. The rise above Tuesday’s high at 7393 briefly weakened that interpretation, but the failure to hold the breakout and the subsequent fall below this morning’s pre-session low at 7305.50 restored the E{-5} case. There is still some ambiguity in the chart, and the end of wave D{-5} and the beginning of wave E{-5} have not yet been confirmed.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above today’s high at 7404.75 would reopen the question of whether rising wave D{-5} is still underway. A continued decline below 7299 would strengthen the case that falling wave E{-5} has begun. Confirmation would come with a decisive move back below the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} Expanding Triangle.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures began to rise overnight about an hour before the Consumer Price Index for May was published at 8:30 a.m. ET and picked up the pace upon the release. The rise began from the session low, 7305.50, reached 7367, and then fell back slightly.

What does it mean? The May CPI report produced a mixed but initially market-friendly response. The headline CPI-U rose 0.5% for the month and 4.2% over the year, but more than 60% of the monthly increase came from energy, while core CPI rose a milder 0.2%.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline from Tuesday’s high to this morning’s low at 7305.50 continues to support the interpretation that downward wave E{-5} is underway within the larger wave 4{-4} Expanding Triangle. The post-CPI rise is sharp, but so far it is best treated as an upward correction within E{-5}, not as a reason to restore rising wave D{-5}. A sustained rise above Tuesday’s high at 7393 would weaken the E{-5} interpretation. A turn back down and a fall below 7305.50 would strengthen it.

Decision Points. A sustained move above 7393 would require reconsidering whether wave D{-5} is still alive. Failure in the 7360s or 7370s, followed by a drop through 7305.50, would support the view that wave E{-5} is continuing downward.

The Chart. I’ve moved the chart in to focus on wave D{-5} and the wave now underway, wave {E-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 6-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• E{-5} Micro, 6/1/2026, 7632.25 (down}
• A{-6} Submicro, 6/1/2026, 7632.25 (down}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his bookScience and Sanity(1933), “Themapis not theterritory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 9, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a session high of 7491 and then fell sharply, to 7247.25. The futures then rose back almost to 7400.

Elliott Wave Theory. That low brings the decline that began on June 1 from 7632.25 closer to the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} Expanding Triangle than to its starting point.

The ongoing question for more than a week has been whether upward wave D{-5} was continuing or downward wave E{-5} had begun. Given the length of the decline, I’ve relabeled the chart to show falling wave E{-5} underway. The label remains provisional until the futures return below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle, but the depth and speed of today’s decline make E{-5} the better working count.

If wave E{-5} is indeed underway, then the parent wave 4{-4} is in its final subwave. In Expanding Triangles, each subwave ends beyond the prior subwave that moved in the same direction. So the D wave traveled beyond the end of the B wave, the C wave below the end of the A wave, and the E wave can be expected to fall below the end of the C wave, at 6353.25 on March 30.

As wave D has shown, a wave can move well beyond the boundary drawn by connecting wave endpoints — the red lines on the chart. Wave E might drop well beyond the lower boundary of the Expanding Triangle, or it might come up short and never reach the boundary, a condition called truncation.

Another possibility, of course, is that declaring wave D{-5} to have ended turns out not to match the terrain. If that happens, then I shall erase E{-5} from the chart and restore D{-5}.

Decision Points. A return below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle would confirm that wave E{-5} is underway and would shift the focus toward the lower boundary of the triangle and, beyond that, the March 30 low of 6353.25. A rise above today’s high, 7491, would weaken the E{-5} count and bring renewed attention to the possibility that D{-5} is still underway. A rise above the June 1 high, 7632.25, would make the E{-5} label untenable and restore D{-5} as the working count.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures began the overnight session by dropping to 7390.25 shortly after the closing bell, and then began to rise. As today’s opening bell approached, the price was within cents of reaching the 7460s, which is below yesterday’s high, 7476.75.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory analysis continues to produce ambiguity. Has rising wave D{-5} ended and falling wave E{-5} begun? Or is the D wave still underway? Impossible to say at this point with any degree of certainty.

Both are subwaves within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began last October and which has taken the form of an Expanding Triangle. The D wave has broken above the upper boundary of the triangle and has not yet returned to that level.

The overnight rebound reduces immediate bearish pressure but does not settle the wave count. Confirmation of E{-5} still requires a materially larger decline, especially a return below the Expanding Triangle’s upper boundary.

Decision Points. If the futures rise above yesterday’s high, 7476.75, then wave D{-5} remains the most likely count and is still extending above the Expanding Triangle. If the futures reverse and fall below the overnight low, 7390.25, then the possibility that wave E{-5} has begun gains strength, although confirmation would still require a return below the triangle’s upper boundary. Until one of those levels gives way, the analysis remains ambiguous.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 6-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• E{-5} Micro, 6/1/2026, 7632.25 (down}
• A{-6} Submicro, 6/1/2026, 7632.25 (down}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his bookScience and Sanity(1933), “Themapis not theterritory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 9, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a session high of 7476.75 and then retreated to slightly below the 7410s then back. The movement has the feel of testing rather than commitment, with neither direction yet taking control.

Elliott Wave Theory: As was the case this morning, the futures remain unclear about where they are headed. If up, then rising wave D{-5} continues. If down, then falling wave E{-5} may be underway, but the distance covered still is not large enough to call it confirmation.

Decision Points. A rise above 7476.75 would return the short-term advantage to the upside, although the larger D{-5} count would not be strongly restored unless the futures eventually challenge the June 1 high of 7632.25. A fall below 7423 would keep the possible E{-5} scenario alive and point toward a test of the overnight low of 7355.50. A fall below 7355.50 would strengthen the E{-5} interpretation, but confirmation would still require a break below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle that began Oct. 29, 2025. Until one of those levels breaks, the analysis remains in transition.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell slightly as trading resumed overnight, to a low of 7355.50, and then began to rise, reaching the 7470s as the opening bell approached. The overnight recovery was steady, but it remained well below the June 1 high of 7632.25.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave D{-5} remains the working count, although the June 1 high remains a plausible candidate for the end of D{-5}. The decline from that high has been large enough to raise the possibility that falling wave E{-5} has begun, but it has not yet produced operational confirmation. That confirmation would come with a fall below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle that began Oct. 29, 2025.

Decision Points. A move above 7632.25 would extend wave D{-5} and restore the upward count without much ambiguity. A renewed fall below 7355.50 would keep the possible E{-5} scenario alive, but still would not confirm it unless the decline continues to the triangle boundary and breaks below it. Until then, the analysis remains in transition: D{-5} is still the active label, but E{-5} is a credible developing alternative.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his bookScience and Sanity(1933), “Themapis not theterritory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 8, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com