3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, reaching into the 7560s but remaining slightly above Tuesday’s low of 7571.75. The price movements remain small relative to the larger chart structure.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave D{-5}, now in its final subwave, C{-6}, continues. Within C{-6}, rising wave C{-7} is in its final subwave, C{-8}. Today’s decline is insufficient to show that any of those rising waves has ended.

The price remains below the June 15 peak of 7648.75, which marked the end of rising wave A{-7}, the first subwave within wave C{-6}.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would carry wave C{-8} above the June 15 peak and strengthen the case that the final advance within wave D{-5} remains underway.

A decline below Tuesday’s low of 7571.75 would extend the short-term downtrend but would not, by itself, show that wave C{-8} has ended. A sustained break below the B{-8} low at 7468.50 would require reconsideration of the lower-degree labeling and raise the possibility that wave C{-6}—and therefore wave D{-5}—has completed.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight to 7632, their highest level so far this week, and then reversed, falling to 7580.50 before recovering into the 7590s. The overnight low remains above Wednesday’s low.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave D{-5} continues and is in its final subwave, C{-6}. That wave, in turn, is in its final subwave, C{-7}, which is also in its final subwave, C{-8}.

Wave D{-5} is working through its closing stages. It is the next-to-the-last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

When wave D{-5} is complete, declining wave E{-5} will begin. It will be the final subwave of wave 4{-4} and will bring the correction into its closing stages.

Wave E{-5} will likely carry the price below the March 30 low of 6353.25, perhaps reaching the vicinity of 6200 or lower. When wave E{-5} and wave 4{-4} have ended, rising wave 5{-4} will begin and will likely carry the price to new highs.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would verify that wave D{-5} continued beyond the June 15 peak and strengthen the current C{-8} labeling.

A sustained decline below Wednesday’s low in the 7570s would weaken the immediate upward labeling and increase the plausibility that wave E{-5} is already underway. A break below the rising boundary of wave 4{-4}, now in the low 7200s, would provide much stronger operational confirmation.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave that began on March 30 within a downward correction, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025. The blue line traces the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 16, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures’ rise following the pre-session Producer Price Index report proved to be less a bullish response to softer inflation data than the first leg of a double whipsaw. After rising to 7626.25, the price reversed almost immediately and fell rapidly to 7571.75. It then reversed again and swiftly recovered into the 7610s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Despite the drama, the whipsaws covered relatively little territory. I find nothing in the movement sufficient to change this morning’s analysis: Rising wave D{-5} appears to remain underway.

Decision Points. A sustained move above today’s high of 7626.25 would restore the upward momentum interrupted by the whipsaw. A further rise above the June 15 high of 7648.75 would strengthen the present labeling and fulfill the minimum expectation for rising wave C{-8}.

A decline below today’s low of 7571.75 would show that the recovery is failing, but would not by itself establish that wave D{-5} has ended. A break below the wave B{-8} low of 7468.50 would invalidate the immediate C{-8} interpretation and reopen the possibility that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply as the opening bell approached following publication of the Producer Price Index report for June. The report showed softer producer inflation during the month preceding the resumption of heavy fighting in the U.S.-Iran War, although the 12-month inflation readings remained elevated.

What does it mean? In applying Elliott Wave Theory, I have moved the chart closer in to focus on the subwaves—and especially wave C{-6}—within rising wave D{-5}. Wave D{-5} is the next-to-the-last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Since the June 15 peak of 7648.75, the chart has been ambiguous. Did wave D{-5} end on June 15, allowing falling wave E{-5} to begin? Or was wave D{-5} still underway?

The subwaves visible in the closer view provide a greater degree of clarity.

Wave D{-5} appears to be in its third and final subwave, rising wave C{-6}. That wave, in turn, appears to be in its third and final subwave, rising wave C{-7}. At the lowest degree marked on the chart, rising wave C{-8} is underway and appears likely to exceed the June 15 high.

Such a move would fulfill the minimum expectation for the terminal rise. However, the ends of waves C{-8}, C{-7}, C{-6} and D{-5} would not be established until the rise subsequently reverses. That reversal would mark the beginning of falling wave E{-5}, which can be expected eventually to carry the price below the prior low of the expanding triangle.

A degree of ambiguity remains, as is normal when Elliott Wave Theory is applied. For me, however, this structure provides a substantially stronger argument that wave D{-5} remains underway and that wave E{-5} lies in the future.

Decision Points. A sustained move above the June 15 high of 7648.75 would strengthen the present labeling and confirm that rising wave C{-8} is extending. It would not, by itself, signal that wave D{-5} has ended. Evidence of completion would require a reversal from the new high.

A decline below the wave B{-8} low at 7468.50 before a new high would invalidate the immediate C{-8} interpretation and reopen the possibility that wave D{-5} has already ended. After a new high, a decline below that level would provide initial evidence that the terminal rise is complete. A further break below the wave B{-7} low at 7357.25 would provide substantially stronger evidence that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the subwaves of wave D{-5}, a rising wave that began on March 30 within a downward correction, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025. The blue line traces the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 15, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traded sideways during the session after retreating from the sharp rise that followed the release of the June inflation report before the opening bell. Since that retreat, the price has fluctuated mainly between the upper 7560s and slightly above 7600.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis remains unchanged from this morning. Rising wave D{-5} is likely to remain underway, but it is still possible that wave D{-5} ended and falling wave E{-5} began at the June 15 peak. Neither interpretation has been verified.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above today’s CPI-response high at 7613.75 would strengthen the case that wave D{-5} remains underway. A move above the June 15 peak at 7648.75 would provide much stronger confirmation.

A decline below the overnight low at 7531.50 would strengthen the alternative case that falling wave E{-5} is underway. A further break below the late-June and early-July lows in the upper 7400s would provide more substantial evidence for that interpretation.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply, to 7612.75, when the latest Consumer Price Index data was released. It then quickly retreated, back into the 7590s and the 7580s, with a quick drop into the 7570s that was quickly reversed.

What does it mean? The response carried a mixed message.

Elliott Wave Theory. The sharp rise following the inflation report gives some support to the interpretation that rising wave D{-5} remains underway. However, the price remained below the June 15 peak at 7648.75 and quickly gave back much of the rise. That retreat is consistent with an alternative interpretation in which the CPI response was a corrective subwave within declining wave E{-5}. Neither interpretation has been verified, and the ambiguity continues.

The D{-5} and E{-5} waves are subwaves of wave 4{-4}, an downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above 7648.75 would provide strong evidence that wave D{-5} remains underway and is extending to a new high.

A decline below the overnight low in the 7530s would strengthen the case that the CPI rise was corrective. A further break below the late-June and early-July lows in the upper 7400s would provide more substantial evidence that declining wave E{-5} is underway.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave that began on March 30 within a downward correction, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 14, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures resumed their decline early in the session and reached a daily low of 7560. The price then moved sideways in the 7560s and low 7570s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The price remains much closer to the June 15 all-time high, 7648.75, than to the June 26 low from which the latest rise began. That positioning continues to favor the interpretation that rising wave D{-5} remains underway and is nearing its end.

The interpretation remains unconfirmed, however. The alternative—that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and falling wave E{-5} began at that point—also remains possible.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above 7648.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} continued beyond June 15.

A fall below today’s low at 7560 would show renewed short-term weakness but would not by itself verify wave E{-5}. A decline below the late-June low in the 7350s would materially strengthen the case that wave E{-5} is underway.

A sustained break below the expanding triangle’s upper boundary, now in the low 7200s, would provide the clearest structural evidence that the decline is wave E{-5}.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened Sunday evening at 7607, a 19-point downward gap from Friday’s closing price. After briefly reaching 7615.25, the price fell into the 7560s and then recovered into the 7590s. The gap and early decline followed further attacks by the United States and Iran against each other.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory begins the new week as it ended the old one: with two possible interpretations of the chart, neither of which has been verified.

The more likely interpretation, in my opinion and reflected in the chart’s labels, is that rising wave D{-5} remains underway. It began on March 30 at 6353.25 and appears to be nearing its end. Under this interpretation, rising wave C{-6} within D{-5} is still in progress.

The less likely interpretation, also in my opinion, is that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 at 7648.75 and that declining wave E{-5} began at that point.

As must often be said when applying Elliott Wave analysis, time will tell.

Both interpretations occur within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. It has taken the form of an expanding triangle, a somewhat uncommon corrective pattern in my experience. In this form, each rising wave ends above the preceding rising wave, and each falling wave ends below the preceding falling wave.

Wave D{-5} long ago moved above the previous rising wave, B{-5}, which peaked at 7043 on January 27. Under the standard expanding-triangle interpretation, wave E{-5} would be expected to fall below the endpoint of wave C{-5}, which reached 6353.25 on March 30. It could fall significantly farther, although it might instead come up short in a condition known as truncation.

Completion of wave E{-5} would also complete wave 4{-4} and begin uptrending wave 5{-4}. That motive wave should unfold in five subwaves and would be expected eventually to carry the price to new highs. Its third subwave cannot be the shortest of the three rising subwaves and is often the longest.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above the June 15 high, 7648.75, would establish that wave D{-5} continued beyond that date and would support the preferred interpretation.

A fall below the overnight low at 7566.50 would show renewed short-term weakness, but by itself would not verify that wave E{-5} is underway. A decline below the late-June low in the 7350s would materially strengthen the E-wave interpretation.

The clearest structural evidence for wave E{-5} would be a sustained break below the expanding triangle’s upper boundary, presently running through the low 7200s. Until one of those larger boundaries is broken, the ambiguity remains.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave 4{-4}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and its subwaves. has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 13, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose into the 7620s after the Federal Reserve released its Monetary Policy Report to Congress.

Elliott Wave Theory. Neither rising wave D{-5} nor falling wave E{-5} has been confirmed. The session rise remains below the June 15 peak of 7648.75. The ambiguity is whether wave D{-5} has continued beyond that peak or ended there, with falling wave E{-5} beginning afterward.

The Monetary Policy Report adds some fundamental support to the possibility that falling wave E{-5} is underway. Its picture of persistent inflation, limited scope for near-term rate cuts and elevated asset valuations could make the market more vulnerable to a broader decline. The report has produced no significant immediate response in the price, however, and it does not verify the Elliott Wave labeling. It is best treated as a secondary factor that raises the plausibility of wave E{-5}, while the chart and decision points remain the primary evidence.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above 7648.75 would verify that wave D{-5} remains underway and would postpone the beginning of wave E{-5}.

A renewed decline would strengthen the alternative interpretation. A break below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle, presently in the low 7200s, would provide operational confirmation that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and wave E{-5} is underway.

Until either decision point is crossed, the chart remains ambiguous.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight to 7568.50 and then rose to 7595.50, covering a relatively short distance in either direction.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to offer two possible interpretations. Either rising wave D{-5} remains underway, or it ended on June 15 and falling wave E{-5} is in progress.

What is clear is that the parent wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, is approaching its end. Wave D{-5} is the penultimate subwave, and wave E{-5} will be the final subwave. Completion of wave E{-5} will also mark the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of rising wave 5{-4}.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, a structure that grows wider as it progresses. Wave 5{-4} will take the form of a dominant trend composed of five subwaves. Waves 1, 3 and 5 will move in the direction of the trend, with wave 3 often the longest and never the shortest of those three waves.

I would expect wave 5{-4} eventually to carry the price noticeably above the highest point reached during wave 4{-4}. Elliott Wave rules do not require it to rise above the peak of wave D{-5}, but such pushes above are not rare..

Decision Points. A sustained rise above the June 15 high of 7648.75 would verify that wave D{-5} remains underway and would postpone the beginning of wave E{-5}.

A renewed decline would strengthen the alternative interpretation. A break below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle, presently in the low 7200s, would provide operational confirmation that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and wave E{-5} is underway.

Until either boundary is broken, movement within the present range provides little basis for choosing between the two interpretations.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave 4{-4}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and its subwaves. has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 10, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching into the 7590s before pulling back slightly.

Elliott Wave Theory. The rise gives greater credence to the interpretation that rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30, remains underway. An alternative interpretation is that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 at 7648.75 and that falling wave E{-5} began on that date.

At this point, neither interpretation has been verified. Both are subwaves of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway. Until that happens, today’s rise is constructive but not decisive.

A turn back down before reaching 7648.75 would keep the alternative interpretation alive, that falling wave E{-5} began on June 15. A decline below the recent 7468.50 low would strengthen that alternative, and a fall below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide stronger operational evidence that wave E{-5} is underway.

The price is moving closer to a decision point, but it has not reached one. The best course remains to wait for verification rather than anticipate it.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching into the 7550s. The rise left the price slightly below the prior day’s high. Weekly jobless claims added no major disruption to the picture: initial claims declined, the four-week average also declined, continuing claims rose slightly, and the insured unemployment rate was unchanged.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory labeling remains uncertain. Is rising wave D{-5} still underway, or did it end on June 15 at the 7648.75 peak, with falling wave E{-5} beginning at that point? There has been no verification for either scenario.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway. Until then, the overnight rise is constructive but not decisive.

A decline below the recent 7468.50 low would put pressure back on the wave E{-5} interpretation. A fall below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide stronger operational evidence that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 9, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures zigzagged during the session, remaining within the boundaries of the sharp overnight decline.

Elliott Wave Theory. Although the price remains down on the day, the decline has not been sufficient to change the analysis. Rising wave D{-5} appears still to be underway, although the alternative labeling — that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and falling wave E{-5} is now in progress — remains possible. Neither labeling has been validated.

Decision Points. A decline below the overnight low of 7468.50 would strengthen the case that falling wave E{-5} is underway, although stronger confirmation would require a deeper break toward the June 11 low of 7232.25 and the upper boundary of wave 4{-4}.

A rise above the overnight range, and especially a move back toward the June 15 high of 7648.75, would strengthen the case that rising wave D{-5} is still underway.

The session’s back-and-forth movement leaves the analysis unchanged. The chart remains in a verification zone rather than a confirmed turn.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell sharply overnight, reaching 7468.50, and then rose back into the 7500s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: The same ambiguity remains. Rising wave D{-5} within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction, may still be underway. Alternatively, wave D{-5} may have ended on June 15 at 7648.75, with falling wave E{-5} now underway.

Decision Points. The overnight decline increases the likelihood that wave E{-5} has begun, but it does not verify that labeling. The price remains well above the June 11 low of 7232.25 and above the upper boundary of wave 4{-4}, the expanding triangle.

A continued decline, especially one that moves below 7468.50 and then begins to challenge the June 11 low, would strengthen the case that wave E{-5} is underway. A rise back above the overnight range and toward the June 15 high would keep alive the interpretation that wave D{-5} is still rising.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 8, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell sharply early in the session, to 7529.50, and then rose back into the 7550s and 7560s, where it has lingered, falling again as the closing bell approached..

Elliott Wave Theory. The primary label remains rising wave D{-5} within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction. It is also possible that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 at 7648.75 and declining wave E{-5} began. At this point there is no verification either way.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75, the June 15 high, would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway.

A decline below the lower boundary of the expanding triangle would verify that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that falling wave E{-5} is underway. A decline below 7232.25, the June 11 low, would add strength to that verification.

Today’s decline gave the bearish alternative a little more room to breathe, but not enough to change the label. The risk/reward remains poor until one of the decision points is reached.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached an overnight high of 7601.25, fell to 7563, and reclaimed part of the loss, rising into the 7580s.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory ambiguity continues. There is no evidence that rising wave D{-5} is complete and falling wave E{-5} has begun, nor is there evidence that wave D{-5} continues.

Whichever wave is underway, it is happening within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The end of wave E{-5} will also be the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of wave 5{-4}, which will rise to new highs.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75, the June 15 high, would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway.

A decline below the lower boundary of the expanding triangle would verify that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that falling wave E{-5} is underway. A decline below 7232.25, the June 11 low, would add strength to that verification.

For now, the risk/reward remains poor. The price is close enough to the June 15 high to keep the bullish alternative alive, but it has not broken above it. At the same time, the decline from that high has not gone far enough to verify the bearish alternative. This remains a chart for watching rather than acting.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p,m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 7, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching above 7600.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis this morning remains unchanged. Rising wave D{-5} within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction, continues. The alternative analysis, that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 at 7648.75 and declining wave E{-5} is underway, remains possible, but it has not yet been proven.

Today’s rise narrows the distance to the June 15 high but does not resolve the labeling. The price would need to move above that high to verify that wave D{-5} is still extending. A renewed decline would keep the alternative E{-5} labeling alive.

Decision Points. A rise above 7595 would continue today’s intraday advance but would not settle the larger question. A rise above 7648.75, the June 15 high, would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway and would disprove the alternative labeling that wave E{-5} began on June 15.

A decline below 7538.25, today’s low, would show that the session’s rise had failed. A further decline below the recent lows in the 7470s would increase the likelihood that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that declining wave E{-5} is underway. A fall back below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide stronger operational confirmation of the E{-5} labeling.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures moved sideways through the 7530s to the 7570s after trading resumed yesterday evening.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory tells us that wave 4{-4}, a downward correction, is still in its next-to-the-last subwave, rising wave D{-5}. It is possible that the D wave ended on June 15 at 7648.75 and that the final subwave, wave E{-5}, has begun, but that has not yet been verified.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, a somewhat uncommon form of correction with five subwaves in which each rising wave moves higher than the prior rising wave, and each falling wave moves lower than the prior falling wave. Wave D{-5} has already moved higher than rising wave B{-5}, meeting the rule of the expanding triangle.

Wave E{-5}, when it is verified to have begun, will fall below falling wave C{-5}, which ended at 6353.25. It will likely fall further, to the boundary line connecting the end points of the first two declining waves, A{-5} and C{-5}. That boundary would be around 6230 as the session opens today, and it will continue to fall, lengthening the likely decline as the minutes tick past.

Decision Points. A rise above the June 15 high, 7648.75, would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway and would remove the present ambiguity. The higher the price rises above that level, the more likely it becomes that wave D{-5} is extending beyond the minimum required by the expanding triangle.

A decline from the present sideways range would not by itself verify wave E{-5}. Verification would require a larger break, especially a fall back below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle. Such a move would increase the likelihood that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that wave E{-5} is underway. A continuing decline below the recent lows would strengthen that labeling. Under the expanding-triangle rules, verified wave E{-5} will eventually move below 6353.25 and likely lower, toward the declining boundary line now near 6230.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p,m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 6, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

Market Holiday. U.S. markets will be closed on July 3 in celebration of the American Declaration of Independence from the British Empire on July 4, 1776. Trading will resume on Monday, July 6.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. After peaking during the session at 7593.75, the S&P 500 futures fell sharply, reaching 7479.50, the lowest level reached since June 29. After reaching the low, the price rose slightly, fluctuating narrowly around 7500.

Elliott Wave Theory. The price reached a point during the session where there is now a reasonable basis for concluding that falling wave E{-5} may have begun. If verified, that would put an end to the ambiguity that has defined the chart since the June 15 peak, 7648.75, and would define that peak as the end of rising wave D{-5}.

The evidence is not yet final. The decline from today’s high is sharp, but a confirmed wave E{-5} would require follow-through. A lower high followed by a decline below today’s low would strengthen the case. A move below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide stronger operational verification that wave D{-5} has ended and wave E{-5} is underway.

If wave E{-5} has begun, then the final subwave of wave 4{-4} is underway. Wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The end of wave E{-5} will also be the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of a months-long uptrend, wave 5{-4}.

Decision Points. A decline below today’s low, 7479.50, would strengthen the case that falling wave E{-5} has begun. A break below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide stronger verification that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that wave E{-5} is underway.

A rise back above today’s high, 7593.75, would weaken the wave E{-5} interpretation. A move above the June 15 peak, 7648.75, would invalidate the conclusion that wave E{-5} has begun and would verify that rising wave D{-5} remains underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply when the latest employment report was published before the opening bell. Non-farm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, while the unemployment rate, at 4.2%, changed little. The initial rise carried the price from the 7550s into the 7570s, but after 15 minutes the advance faltered and gave back much of the report-driven gain.

What does it mean? In terms of Elliott Wave Theory, the rise remained below yesterday’s high during a downward correction within rising wave D{-5}, and remained well below the wave D{-5} peak so far, 7648.75, set on June 15.

The initial extent of the rise added some credence to the conclusion that wave D{-5} is still underway. The sharp pullback from the 7570s, however, preserved the ambiguity that has dominated the chart. An alternative analysis concludes that wave D{-5} ended with the June 15 peak and that declining wave E{-5} has begun.

Which conclusion will prevail? Impossible to say at this point. A move above yesterday’s high would improve the bullish case. A continued failure from the 7570s, especially if the price falls back through the pre-report area, would keep open the alternative that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

All of this is happening within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The end of wave E{-5} will also be the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of a months-long uptrend, wave 5{-4}. Until then, the expanding triangle form taken by wave 4{-4} will continue.

Decision Points. A move above yesterday’s high, 7579, would improve the case that rising wave D{-5} remains underway. A move above the June 15 peak, 7648.75, would verify that conclusion.

A continued failure from the 7570s would preserve the ambiguity. A fall back through the pre-report area in the 7550s would weaken the bullish interpretation, and a decline below the overnight low, 7520.25, would strengthen the alternative that falling wave E{-5} has begun.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p,m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 2, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com