9:35 a..m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures remained below Thursday’s peak, 7838.50, reaching an overnight high of 7831.75 as the opening bell approached after falling as low as 7820. At the opening bell, the price dropped sharply into the 7810s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory interprets the chart as showing that rising wave C{-6} and its parent, rising wave D{-5}, are both underway. A push beyond Thursday’s peak would verify that interpretation. As long as the price remains below that peak, the possibility remains that Thursday’s peak marked the end of wave C{-6} and wave D{-5}.

The subwaves within the wave C{-6} rise, which began on July 29 from 7324, suggest that rising wave E{-7}, the fifth and final subwave of wave C{-6}, is underway.

When wave E{-7} reaches its end, so will wave C{-6} and wave D{-5}. A potentially months-long downward movement, wave E{-5}, will begin and is likely to fall below the beginning of wave D{-5}, 6353.25 on March 30. It could pull up short, or it could travel a significant distance below that level.

Decision Points. A move above Thursday’s 7838.50 peak would verify that rising wave E{-7}, and therefore waves C{-6} and D{-5}, remain underway. Remaining below 7838.50 would leave Thursday’s peak as a possible endpoint but would not, by itself, establish that the rise has ended. A decline below the low of wave D{-7}, the starting point of the present E{-7} rise, would provide much stronger evidence that 7838.50 ended waves E{-7}, C{-6} and D{-5}, and that falling wave E{-5} has begun.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the entire of the recent movements of wave D{-5} and it’s final subwave, wave C{-6}, both part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has been underway since October 29, 2025.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 14, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. NewYork time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 rose to a new peak today, 7838.50, eclipsing the prior peak set on August 5, 7820.25.

Elliott Wave Theory. The new peak, according to Elliott Wave Theory analysis, verifies that wave C{-6} and its parent wave D{-5} are both underway. Both are rising waves within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction.

Wave 4{-4}, which began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle, a somewhat uncommon form. It will at its completion have five subwaves. Today’s new high confirms that the final wave — declining wave E{-5} — lies in the future.

It is the nature of expanding triangles that each rising wave moves higher than the prior rising wave, and each falling wave moves lower than its predecessor. The blue lines on the chart connects the earlier waves to form upper and lower boundaries. As in life, Elliott Wave Theory boundaries are sometimes not honored, and such is the case with wave D{-5}, which broke above the boundary in April.

Likewise, waves sometimes come to an end before reaching the boundary. There’s no way to tell if the future wave E{-5} willl turn out to be a truncated wave.

Decision Points. A rise above today’s high, 7838.50, would show that wave C{-6} and wave D{-5} are continuing to extend. Today’s high is now the earliest possible candidate for the end of both waves and the beginning of falling wave E{-5}, but the chart has not yet produced a meaningful downside price level that would confirm such a turn.

9:35 a..m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose gently overnight, whipsawing briefly when the Producer Price Index was published an hour before the opening bell. The futures reached an overnight high of 7794, and then as the session began, dropped sharply to the 7780s.

What does it mean? The whipsaw was clearly the work of algorithms and ended essentially where it had begun, leaving Elliott Wave Theory’s analysis unchanged. Rising wave C{-6} is underway within rising wave D{-5}, both within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

That interpretation has not been verified. It remains possible that wave C{-6} ended on August 5, bringing wave D{-5} to an end and beginning falling wave E{-5}, the final subwave within wave 4{-4}.

Decision Points. A rise above the August 5 high, 7820.25, would eliminate the possibility that wave D{-5} ended there and would confirm that rising wave C{-6} remains underway. A decline below the post-August 5 low, 7738.75, would strengthen the alternative analysis that wave D{-5} has ended and falling wave E{-5} has begun, but would not by itself confirm that count.

The Chart. Today’s afternoon chart focuses on the entire of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has been underway since October of last year.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 13, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York tiime

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to fall immediately after the session opened, dropping from 7794 to 7763.95, and then returned — slowly — to the 7780s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The primary analysis remains unchanged. Rising wave C{-6} is still underway, along with its parent wave D{-5}. The alternative possibility that both waves ended on August 5 remains, but is unconfirmed.

Decision Points. A rise above the August 5 all-time high, 7820.25, would eliminate the alternative that wave D{-5} ended there and confirm that the rise has continued. A fall below Tuesday’s low, 7738.75, would strengthen the alternative analysis that wave D{-5} ended August 5 and falling wave E{-5} has begun. It would strengthen that analysis, not confirm it.

9:35 a..m. New York time

Inflation annluncement chart: The market response.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:01 a.m., 5-minute bars with volume]

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures responded with confusion when new inflation numbers were published an hour before the opening bell. The response took the form of a violent two-way movement within one minute that carried the price between 7788 and 7760.25 before settling well above the low but below the initial high. The word that came to my mind as I watched it unfold was “confusion.” The chart above shows the period surrounding the release, in close-up.

The price dropped sharply as the opening bell sounded, from 7794 to the 7770s so far.

What does it mean? Despite the drama, Elliott Wave Theory sees no significant change in the analysis. Rising wave C{-6} is still underway, along with its rising parent wave D{-5}. The possibility that those two waves ended on August 5 remains. Neither analysis is confirmed.

Decision Points. A rise above the August 5 all-time high, 7820.25, would eliminate the possibility that wave D{-5} ended there and confirm that the rise has continued beyond that point. On the downside, a fall below Tuesday’s low, 7738.75, would strengthen the alternative analysis that wave D{-5} ended August 5 and falling wave E{-5} has begun. It would strengthen that analysis, not confirm it.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the wave C{-6} and portion of wave D{-5} that came before.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 11, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to fall before the session began and picked up the pace as the opening bell sounded. From the overnight high, 7796, the price has so far fallen to 7738.75 and then risen into the 7740s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The fall has strengthened the analysis that sees rising wave D{-5} as having ended on August 5 and falling wave E{-5} as having begun. Strengthened, not confirmed. The Decision Points section describes the prices and decisions involved.

Decision Points. The first important level on the downside is 7724.25, the August 6 low. A break below that level would strengthen the case that the decline from the August 5 peak is more than an internal correction within rising C{-6}, but it would not by itself confirm that E{-5} is underway.

The decisive downside level is 7324, the July 29 starting point of rising C{-6}. A decline below 7324 would invalidate the present C{-6} structure and confirm that C{-6} and D{-5} have ended and falling E{-5} has begun.

On the upside, a move above the August 5 peak, 7820.25, would settle the question in the opposite direction: D{-5} would still be underway, with C{-6} continuing its rise.

Until one of those decisive levels is broken, the chart remains labeled for rising D{-5}, while the possibility that E{-5} has begun continues to gain weight.

9:35 a..m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures, as is often the case recently, reached their low early in overnight trading and then rose, reaching a high of 7796 as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Under Elliott Wave Theory, wave C{-6} is the final subwave of wave D{-5}, which began on March 30. Wave D{-5} is the next-to-the-last subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Internally, the structure within wave C{-6} lacks clarity to a certain extent. A C-wave such as this one will have five subwaves. The August 5 peak, 7820.25, can be counted as the end of wave C{-7} and the beginning of downward wave D{-7}. At one degree lower, however, the peak can be counted as the end of wave C{-8}, with downward wave D{-8} now underway. Either interpretation leaves wave C{-6} incomplete and additional upside ahead.

There is also a more bearish possibility: The five-wave structure of C{-6} may have been completed at the August 5 peak. In that scenario, C{-6} and D{-5} ended together, and falling wave E{-5} is underway.

The interpretation that leaves C{-6} incomplete seems to better match the relative size of the waves that came before, and that is what I have used on the chart. However, none of the possibilities has been verified. The central question remains: Is rising wave D{-5} still underway, or has falling wave E{-5} begun?

Decision Points. A sustained move above the August 5 peak, 7820.25, would confirm that wave C{-6}, and therefore D{-5}, remains underway. Continued weakness would increase the likelihood that D{-5} has ended, but the decline so far has not gone far enough to confirm that falling wave E{-5} has begun.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on rising wave C{-6} with 1-hour bars in order to better see the internal structure.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 11, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. From the start of the market session, the S&P 500 futures traveled from the 7770s to the 7790s, and then tumbled into the 7760s, a narrow range devoid of drama.

Elliott Wave Theory. Nor was there drama in the interpretation. As was the case this morning—and on more mornings than one cares to count since the expanding triangle began in late October 2025—the chart offered another dose of ambiguity. Rising wave D{-5} remains the favored interpretation.

This is where the careful analyst inserts the cautious warnings. It is possible that D{-5} ended at the August 5 peak and falling wave E{-5} began. Or perhaps not. Neither scenario has been verified.

Decision Points. A rise above the August 5 all-time high of 7820.25 would confirm that wave D{-5} remains underway. A decline below the August 6 low of 7724.25 would strengthen the case that D{-5} ended on August 5 and E{-5} has begun, although the decline could still prove to be a smaller-degree correction within D{-5}.

Between those levels, the market has provided no new evidence requiring a change in the analysis.

9:35 a..m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures have traded within a sideways range, below the August 5 all-time peak of 7820.25 and above the August 6 session low of 7724.25.

What does it mean? The August 5 peak, when Elliott Wave Theory is applied, strengthens the scenario that rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30, is still underway, while leaving open the possibility that the wave ended at last week’s peak and falling wave E{-5} has begun.

Wave E{-5}, if typical, will carry the price down into the 6170s and perhaps lower. It is also possible that the wave will end above that level.

Wherever wave E{-5} ends, that point will mark the end of the larger expanding triangle that has been the form of the S&P 500 since October 29, 2025. The triangle is falling wave 4{-4}, and it will be followed by a push to the upside, most likely moving above the endpoint of wave D{-5}.

Decision Points. A move above 7820.25 would show that wave D{-5} remains underway and that wave E{-5} has not yet begun. A break below 7724.25 would strengthen the alternative scenario that D{-5} ended on August 5 and E{-5} is underway, although the decline could still prove to be a smaller-degree correction within D{-5}.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the entirety of rising wave D{-5}, a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 10, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a session high of 7786.75, then fell to 7757.75. From there they rebounded into the 7770s before turning lower again. The session high remained below Wednesday’s all-time high of 7820.25.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave D{-5} is underway, within its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}. An alternative interpretation is that both C{-6} and D{-5} ended at the Aug. 5 peak of 7820.25 and that falling wave E{-5} has begun. The ambiguity remains because today’s rise stayed below 7820.25. A move above that level would eliminate the Aug. 5-ending alternative and show that D{-5} is still underway.

Decision Points. A rise above 7820.25 would show that wave C{-6}, and therefore wave D{-5}, remains underway. As long as the price remains below that level, the possibility remains that D{-5} ended there on Aug. 5 and that falling wave E{-5} has begun. On the downside, a break below today’s 7757.75 low would strengthen the immediate decline but would not by itself resolve the larger Elliott question. The more important structural level is 7324, the July 29 beginning of rising wave C{-6}; a decline below that level would rule out the present interpretation of C{-6} as still underway.

9:35 a..m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply for about 10 minutes after the Employment Situation Report was released, reaching 7778.25. The price then fell, so far to the 7750s. The report-triggered rise remained below the all-time high of 7820.25, set Wednesday in the rise that began on March 30.

The report’s findings were mixed, although the employment picture was weaker than the unemployment rate alone suggests. Unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%, generally a bullish sign. Non-farm payroll employment fell by 23,000, and payroll gains for the prior two months were revised downward by a combined 103,000. As the chart shows, the market’s response covered relatively little ground.

What does it mean? March 30, in Elliott Wave Theory, is the day wave D{-5} began its rise, and it is still underway. It is in its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}, also underway. Wave D{-5} is the next-to-the-last subwave of the parent wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

When D{-5} is complete — it has been involved off and on with quite a bit of ambiguity — it will be followed by falling wave E{-5}, the final subwave of the 4th-wave correction. A characteristic of expanding triangles is that each succeeding subwave tends to have greater amplitude than the one before it. Wave D{-5} has met that tendency by exceeding the preceding rising wave. If the pattern continues normally, wave E{-5} will fall below the preceding declining wave, although it can fall short of that tendency.

Decision Points. The first upside test is the all-time high at 7820.25. A sustained move above that level would show that rising wave C{-6} remains in force and would extend wave D{-5}. Failure to reach or hold above that level would leave open the possibility that D{-5} is nearing completion. On the downside, this morning’s low at 7725.50 is the first useful near-term marker; a move below it would erase the employment-report advance and suggest that the correction within C{-6} is still underway. A much larger decline would raise the possibility that D{-5} ended at Wednesday’s high and that wave E{-5} has begun, but the chart does not yet provide evidence for making that call.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the entirety of rising wave D{-5}, a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 7, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures worked their way lower during the session, reaching 7724.25, and then rose back into the 7740s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Wave C{-6} appears to be undergoing a downward correction that, under the primary analysis, will be followed by a resumption of the rise within wave D{-5}. Wave D{-5} is the next-to-last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a long-running downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

The chart remains sufficiently ambiguous to allow a second interpretation: The August 5 peak at 7820.25 may have marked the end of both wave C{-6} and its parent, rising wave D{-5}, and the beginning of declining wave E{-5}, the final subwave of wave 4{-4}.

Decision Points. A rise above 7820.25 would show that wave C{-6}, and therefore wave D{-5}, remain underway. A sustained decline below today’s low of 7724.25 would extend the pullback and increase the likelihood that the August 5 peak ended D{-5}, but would not confirm it. A move below 7648.75, the June 15 high and former resistance level, would provide substantially stronger evidence that wave E{-5} has begun. A decline below 7324, the starting point of wave C{-6}, would confirm that C{-6} and D{-5} have ended.9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures, having reached a new high and then fallen sharply the day before, traded sideways overnight within a narrow range, from the 7740s to the 7770s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to analyze rising wave D{-5} as being underway, a subwave of wave 4{-4}, the downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Within D{-5}, wave C{-6} began July 29 from 7324 and is the final major subwave of the rise. As is often the case late in the life of a rising wave, yesterday’s new high introduces fresh ambiguity: Was 7820.25 merely a stopping point within the continuing rise of C{-6}, or did it mark the end of C{-6} and therefore of D{-5}, with declining wave E{-5}, the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, now underway?

The chart has not yet answered the question.

Decision Points. A rise above 7820.25 would show that C{-6} and D{-5} remain underway. A fall below the overnight low of 7748 would weaken the immediate uptrend but would not by itself confirm that D{-5} has ended. A sustained move below 7648.75, the June 15 high that the latest rise broke above, would provide stronger evidence of a failed breakout and a possible transition into E{-5}. A decline below 7324 would invalidate C{-6} as still underway and confirm that D{-5} has ended.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the latter stages of rising wave D{-5}, a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 6, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose to 7820.25 early in the session and then began to fall, reaching a low of 7750.50 before bouncing into the 7760s and 7770s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave C{-6} and its parent, wave D{-5}, remain underway. The decline from the session high may be a correction within wave C{-6}; the chart does not yet show that either wave has ended.

Decision Points. A rise above 7820.25 would extend wave C{-6} and keep the advance clearly underway. A fall below 7750.50 would deepen the retreat and provide an additional warning that the rise may have peaked, but it would not by itself confirm the end of wave D{-5}. Stronger evidence would require a sustained decline below the breakout area around 7635, preferably developing an impulsive structure.9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from 7771 at the start of overnight trading and as the session approached had reached above 7800.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory is unchanged from the revision put in place on Tuesdasy. Rising wave D{-5} continues and its final subwave, wave C{-6} is underway.

When wave C{-6} is complete, it will also be the end of wave D{-5} and the beginning of falling wave E{-5}, which may take a month or more to reach completion..

All of this is happening within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The end of wave E{-5} will compete the parent wave 4{-4} and mark the start of rising wave 5{-4}, which is likely to rise above the star of wave E{-5}, perhaps significantly so.

Decision Points.  A move above the overnight high of 7805.25 would extend wave C{-6} and provide no reason to declare wave D{-5} complete. A reversal below the overnight low of 7771 would be the first warning that the advance may have peaked, although it would not by itself confirm the beginning of wave E{-5}. Stronger evidence would require a sustained decline that develops a clear impulsive structure from the eventual high.

The distinction between warning and confirmation is especially important here. Because C{-6} is the terminal wave of D{-5}, the turn could occur at any time. However, the chart has not turned yet.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the latter stages of rising wave D{-5}, a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 5, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, so far reaching into the 7780s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The extent of the rise beyond the June 15 peak requires that the chart be relabeled, as follows:

• Wave D{-5} is still underway. It did not end on June 15. Wave E{-5} therefore did not begin on that date and remains in the future.
• Wave A{-7} ended on June 11. It is now labeled as the first subwave of wave B{-6}, whose endpoint has moved later, as described below.
• Wave B{-7} ended on June 15. In the earlier version, a series of waves through D{-5} had ended on that date. That interpretation no longer applies.
• Wave C{-7}, and therefore wave B{-6}, ended on July 29. Together, A{-7}, B{-7} and C{-7} form a probable running Flat. The change removes all waves labeled at degree {-8} in the earlier version.
• Wave C{-6} began its rise on July 29 and remains in progress, with no way to know with certainty how high it might fly. It is the final subwave of wave D{-5}. When C{-6} ends, D{-5} will also end and falling wave E{-5} will begin. If E{-5} follows the usual pattern, it will carry the price toward the lower boundary of the expanding triangle, currently projected into the 6180s, and most likely below.

And that is the new chart. In retrospect, the old labeling fit the chart as it then appeared, but subsequent price movement proved it wrong. As is so often the case with the ambiguities that accompany Elliott Wave Theory, I do not see how I could have foreseen the way the chart would subsequently play out. That is not an excuse, but an observation.

Decision Points

Wave C{-6} and wave D{-5} remain underway, leaving the upside open and providing no reliable price target. A high price alone will not be evidence that they have ended; confirmation will require a reversal with enough structure to support the beginning of wave E{-5}. Until that happens, the immediate trend remains upward. Once E{-5} is confirmed, the lower boundary of the expanding triangle becomes the principal downside destination, although its projected level will continue to decline as time passes.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose gently overnight, then shot upward shortly before the start of the session. The rise carried the price to 7666, a new all-time high in the advance that began March 30, and after the opening bell the price moved beyond 7670.

What does it mean? The rise may affect the Elliott Wave analysis. The price moved above the prior high of 7648.75 on June 15, which the analysis had interpreted as the peak of rising wave D{-5} and the beginning of falling wave E{-5}. Both are subwaves of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began October 29, 2025.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, a corrective structure that differs from the usual five-subwave trend and three-subwave correction.

First impact: The new high brings ambiguity back to the chart. It is again possible that wave D{-5} remains underway. That interpretation has not been confirmed, however, and June 15 may still mark the orthodox end of D{-5}, with wave E{-5} underway despite today’s higher high.

Second impact: If wave E{-5} is underway, then A{-8}, B{-8} and the eventual C{-8} may form a Flat correction. B{-8} has moved above the starting point of A{-8}, behavior allowed within an expanded Flat. A downward C{-8} would be required to complete that pattern.

Decision Points.  The character of the next move will help distinguish the alternatives. Continued strong and impulsive upward movement would increase the likelihood that D{-5} never ended on June 15. A sustained reversal from the new high would preserve the interpretation that B{-8} is nearing completion within wave E{-5}, with C{-8} likely to follow to the downside.

For now, the new high creates ambiguity rather than resolving the chart. Both interpretations remain in play.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the end of rising wave D{-5}, a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 4, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures hit a low of 7542.75 early in the session, then rose as the session progressed to 7635.

Elliott Wave Theory. Wave B{-8} continues its rise, within waves A{-7} and A{-6}, both falling subwaves within downtrending wave E{-5}. When wave B{-8} is complete, falling wave C{-8} will begin,

Decision Points. Wave B{-8} remains intact. The session has produced a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows from 7542.75, with no evidence yet that the upward correction has ended.

A sustained break of the latest intraday higher-low structure would provide the first warning that the rise is weakening. A fall below 7542.75 would offer stronger evidence that wave C{-8} is underway. A move below the July 29 low of 7324 would confirm that the larger decline has resumed.

On the upside, the June 15 high of 7648.75 is now close enough to matter. A move through that level would require another look at the internal labeling and degree. Until the market turns, however, wave B{-8} remains in control within the larger downtrend.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to a low of 7543.50 early overnight, then worked its way to a high, 7567.75, as the opening bell approached.Afterward it fell to the 7540s

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory considers the rise to be an upward correction within falling wave E{-5}, which is in turn the final subwave within wave 4{-4}, a larger downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

I’ve labelled the upward correction as wave B{-8}. The degree of the B wave is at best a guess. As always within a new wave, the size of the initial subwaves is at best a guess. It could well be that B{-8} will turn out to be B{-7} or even B{-6}. See the Reading the Chart section below for an explanation of the degree numbers in curly brackets.

A characteristic of expanding triangles is that each wave travels further than the prior wave in the same direction. The last complete falling wave was wave C{-5}, which ended on March 30 at 6353.25. Wave E{-5}, if it follows the normal course of things, can be expected to fall below that level, ending at the lower boundary, which grows lower each day. In some cases it could end before reaching the boundary, or it might move beyond the boundary, such as happened with wave D{-5}.

In any case, wave E{-5} will likely be underway for a long while — months.

Decision Points. 

The rise from the July 29 low remains intact, with no clear evidence yet that wave B{-8} has ended. A fall below the overnight low of 7543.50 would be the first indication that the immediate advance has stalled, but would not by itself confirm completion of the correction.

A sustained reversal that begins breaking the rising structure from 7324 would provide stronger evidence that wave B{-8} is ending and that the next decline within wave E{-5} is beginning. A move below 7324 would confirm that the downward trend has resumed, although the degree of the developing waves could still require revision.

Until the market produces that reversal, the chart argues for patience. The larger trend is downward, but the upward correction has no clearly established endpoint.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the end of rising wave D{-5} on June 15 and the early stages of falling wave E{-5}, both subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 6/15/2026, 6353.25 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 6/15/2026, 6353.25 (down)
• A{-7} Minuscule, 6/15/2026, 6353.25 (down)
• B{-8} (no name), 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 3, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com