3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures resumed their decline early in the session and reached a daily low of 7560. The price then moved sideways in the 7560s and low 7570s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The price remains much closer to the June 15 all-time high, 7648.75, than to the June 26 low from which the latest rise began. That positioning continues to favor the interpretation that rising wave D{-5} remains underway and is nearing its end.

The interpretation remains unconfirmed, however. The alternative—that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and falling wave E{-5} began at that point—also remains possible.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above 7648.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} continued beyond June 15.

A fall below today’s low at 7560 would show renewed short-term weakness but would not by itself verify wave E{-5}. A decline below the late-June low in the 7350s would materially strengthen the case that wave E{-5} is underway.

A sustained break below the expanding triangle’s upper boundary, now in the low 7200s, would provide the clearest structural evidence that the decline is wave E{-5}.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened Sunday evening at 7607, a 19-point downward gap from Friday’s closing price. After briefly reaching 7615.25, the price fell into the 7560s and then recovered into the 7590s. The gap and early decline followed further attacks by the United States and Iran against each other.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory begins the new week as it ended the old one: with two possible interpretations of the chart, neither of which has been verified.

The more likely interpretation, in my opinion and reflected in the chart’s labels, is that rising wave D{-5} remains underway. It began on March 30 at 6353.25 and appears to be nearing its end. Under this interpretation, rising wave C{-6} within D{-5} is still in progress.

The less likely interpretation, also in my opinion, is that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 at 7648.75 and that declining wave E{-5} began at that point.

As must often be said when applying Elliott Wave analysis, time will tell.

Both interpretations occur within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. It has taken the form of an expanding triangle, a somewhat uncommon corrective pattern in my experience. In this form, each rising wave ends above the preceding rising wave, and each falling wave ends below the preceding falling wave.

Wave D{-5} long ago moved above the previous rising wave, B{-5}, which peaked at 7043 on January 27. Under the standard expanding-triangle interpretation, wave E{-5} would be expected to fall below the endpoint of wave C{-5}, which reached 6353.25 on March 30. It could fall significantly farther, although it might instead come up short in a condition known as truncation.

Completion of wave E{-5} would also complete wave 4{-4} and begin uptrending wave 5{-4}. That motive wave should unfold in five subwaves and would be expected eventually to carry the price to new highs. Its third subwave cannot be the shortest of the three rising subwaves and is often the longest.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above the June 15 high, 7648.75, would establish that wave D{-5} continued beyond that date and would support the preferred interpretation.

A fall below the overnight low at 7566.50 would show renewed short-term weakness, but by itself would not verify that wave E{-5} is underway. A decline below the late-June low in the 7350s would materially strengthen the E-wave interpretation.

The clearest structural evidence for wave E{-5} would be a sustained break below the expanding triangle’s upper boundary, presently running through the low 7200s. Until one of those larger boundaries is broken, the ambiguity remains.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave 4{-4}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and its subwaves. has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 13, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose into the 7620s after the Federal Reserve released its Monetary Policy Report to Congress.

Elliott Wave Theory. Neither rising wave D{-5} nor falling wave E{-5} has been confirmed. The session rise remains below the June 15 peak of 7648.75. The ambiguity is whether wave D{-5} has continued beyond that peak or ended there, with falling wave E{-5} beginning afterward.

The Monetary Policy Report adds some fundamental support to the possibility that falling wave E{-5} is underway. Its picture of persistent inflation, limited scope for near-term rate cuts and elevated asset valuations could make the market more vulnerable to a broader decline. The report has produced no significant immediate response in the price, however, and it does not verify the Elliott Wave labeling. It is best treated as a secondary factor that raises the plausibility of wave E{-5}, while the chart and decision points remain the primary evidence.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above 7648.75 would verify that wave D{-5} remains underway and would postpone the beginning of wave E{-5}.

A renewed decline would strengthen the alternative interpretation. A break below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle, presently in the low 7200s, would provide operational confirmation that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and wave E{-5} is underway.

Until either decision point is crossed, the chart remains ambiguous.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight to 7568.50 and then rose to 7595.50, covering a relatively short distance in either direction.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to offer two possible interpretations. Either rising wave D{-5} remains underway, or it ended on June 15 and falling wave E{-5} is in progress.

What is clear is that the parent wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, is approaching its end. Wave D{-5} is the penultimate subwave, and wave E{-5} will be the final subwave. Completion of wave E{-5} will also mark the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of rising wave 5{-4}.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, a structure that grows wider as it progresses. Wave 5{-4} will take the form of a dominant trend composed of five subwaves. Waves 1, 3 and 5 will move in the direction of the trend, with wave 3 often the longest and never the shortest of those three waves.

I would expect wave 5{-4} eventually to carry the price noticeably above the highest point reached during wave 4{-4}. Elliott Wave rules do not require it to rise above the peak of wave D{-5}, but such pushes above are not rare..

Decision Points. A sustained rise above the June 15 high of 7648.75 would verify that wave D{-5} remains underway and would postpone the beginning of wave E{-5}.

A renewed decline would strengthen the alternative interpretation. A break below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle, presently in the low 7200s, would provide operational confirmation that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and wave E{-5} is underway.

Until either boundary is broken, movement within the present range provides little basis for choosing between the two interpretations.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave 4{-4}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and its subwaves. has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 10, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching into the 7590s before pulling back slightly.

Elliott Wave Theory. The rise gives greater credence to the interpretation that rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30, remains underway. An alternative interpretation is that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 at 7648.75 and that falling wave E{-5} began on that date.

At this point, neither interpretation has been verified. Both are subwaves of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway. Until that happens, today’s rise is constructive but not decisive.

A turn back down before reaching 7648.75 would keep the alternative interpretation alive, that falling wave E{-5} began on June 15. A decline below the recent 7468.50 low would strengthen that alternative, and a fall below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide stronger operational evidence that wave E{-5} is underway.

The price is moving closer to a decision point, but it has not reached one. The best course remains to wait for verification rather than anticipate it.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching into the 7550s. The rise left the price slightly below the prior day’s high. Weekly jobless claims added no major disruption to the picture: initial claims declined, the four-week average also declined, continuing claims rose slightly, and the insured unemployment rate was unchanged.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory labeling remains uncertain. Is rising wave D{-5} still underway, or did it end on June 15 at the 7648.75 peak, with falling wave E{-5} beginning at that point? There has been no verification for either scenario.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway. Until then, the overnight rise is constructive but not decisive.

A decline below the recent 7468.50 low would put pressure back on the wave E{-5} interpretation. A fall below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide stronger operational evidence that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 9, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures zigzagged during the session, remaining within the boundaries of the sharp overnight decline.

Elliott Wave Theory. Although the price remains down on the day, the decline has not been sufficient to change the analysis. Rising wave D{-5} appears still to be underway, although the alternative labeling — that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and falling wave E{-5} is now in progress — remains possible. Neither labeling has been validated.

Decision Points. A decline below the overnight low of 7468.50 would strengthen the case that falling wave E{-5} is underway, although stronger confirmation would require a deeper break toward the June 11 low of 7232.25 and the upper boundary of wave 4{-4}.

A rise above the overnight range, and especially a move back toward the June 15 high of 7648.75, would strengthen the case that rising wave D{-5} is still underway.

The session’s back-and-forth movement leaves the analysis unchanged. The chart remains in a verification zone rather than a confirmed turn.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell sharply overnight, reaching 7468.50, and then rose back into the 7500s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: The same ambiguity remains. Rising wave D{-5} within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction, may still be underway. Alternatively, wave D{-5} may have ended on June 15 at 7648.75, with falling wave E{-5} now underway.

Decision Points. The overnight decline increases the likelihood that wave E{-5} has begun, but it does not verify that labeling. The price remains well above the June 11 low of 7232.25 and above the upper boundary of wave 4{-4}, the expanding triangle.

A continued decline, especially one that moves below 7468.50 and then begins to challenge the June 11 low, would strengthen the case that wave E{-5} is underway. A rise back above the overnight range and toward the June 15 high would keep alive the interpretation that wave D{-5} is still rising.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 8, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell sharply early in the session, to 7529.50, and then rose back into the 7550s and 7560s, where it has lingered, falling again as the closing bell approached..

Elliott Wave Theory. The primary label remains rising wave D{-5} within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction. It is also possible that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 at 7648.75 and declining wave E{-5} began. At this point there is no verification either way.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75, the June 15 high, would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway.

A decline below the lower boundary of the expanding triangle would verify that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that falling wave E{-5} is underway. A decline below 7232.25, the June 11 low, would add strength to that verification.

Today’s decline gave the bearish alternative a little more room to breathe, but not enough to change the label. The risk/reward remains poor until one of the decision points is reached.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached an overnight high of 7601.25, fell to 7563, and reclaimed part of the loss, rising into the 7580s.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory ambiguity continues. There is no evidence that rising wave D{-5} is complete and falling wave E{-5} has begun, nor is there evidence that wave D{-5} continues.

Whichever wave is underway, it is happening within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The end of wave E{-5} will also be the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of wave 5{-4}, which will rise to new highs.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75, the June 15 high, would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway.

A decline below the lower boundary of the expanding triangle would verify that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that falling wave E{-5} is underway. A decline below 7232.25, the June 11 low, would add strength to that verification.

For now, the risk/reward remains poor. The price is close enough to the June 15 high to keep the bullish alternative alive, but it has not broken above it. At the same time, the decline from that high has not gone far enough to verify the bearish alternative. This remains a chart for watching rather than acting.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p,m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 7, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching above 7600.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis this morning remains unchanged. Rising wave D{-5} within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction, continues. The alternative analysis, that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 at 7648.75 and declining wave E{-5} is underway, remains possible, but it has not yet been proven.

Today’s rise narrows the distance to the June 15 high but does not resolve the labeling. The price would need to move above that high to verify that wave D{-5} is still extending. A renewed decline would keep the alternative E{-5} labeling alive.

Decision Points. A rise above 7595 would continue today’s intraday advance but would not settle the larger question. A rise above 7648.75, the June 15 high, would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway and would disprove the alternative labeling that wave E{-5} began on June 15.

A decline below 7538.25, today’s low, would show that the session’s rise had failed. A further decline below the recent lows in the 7470s would increase the likelihood that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that declining wave E{-5} is underway. A fall back below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide stronger operational confirmation of the E{-5} labeling.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures moved sideways through the 7530s to the 7570s after trading resumed yesterday evening.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory tells us that wave 4{-4}, a downward correction, is still in its next-to-the-last subwave, rising wave D{-5}. It is possible that the D wave ended on June 15 at 7648.75 and that the final subwave, wave E{-5}, has begun, but that has not yet been verified.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, a somewhat uncommon form of correction with five subwaves in which each rising wave moves higher than the prior rising wave, and each falling wave moves lower than the prior falling wave. Wave D{-5} has already moved higher than rising wave B{-5}, meeting the rule of the expanding triangle.

Wave E{-5}, when it is verified to have begun, will fall below falling wave C{-5}, which ended at 6353.25. It will likely fall further, to the boundary line connecting the end points of the first two declining waves, A{-5} and C{-5}. That boundary would be around 6230 as the session opens today, and it will continue to fall, lengthening the likely decline as the minutes tick past.

Decision Points. A rise above the June 15 high, 7648.75, would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway and would remove the present ambiguity. The higher the price rises above that level, the more likely it becomes that wave D{-5} is extending beyond the minimum required by the expanding triangle.

A decline from the present sideways range would not by itself verify wave E{-5}. Verification would require a larger break, especially a fall back below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle. Such a move would increase the likelihood that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that wave E{-5} is underway. A continuing decline below the recent lows would strengthen that labeling. Under the expanding-triangle rules, verified wave E{-5} will eventually move below 6353.25 and likely lower, toward the declining boundary line now near 6230.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p,m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 6, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

Market Holiday. U.S. markets will be closed on July 3 in celebration of the American Declaration of Independence from the British Empire on July 4, 1776. Trading will resume on Monday, July 6.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. After peaking during the session at 7593.75, the S&P 500 futures fell sharply, reaching 7479.50, the lowest level reached since June 29. After reaching the low, the price rose slightly, fluctuating narrowly around 7500.

Elliott Wave Theory. The price reached a point during the session where there is now a reasonable basis for concluding that falling wave E{-5} may have begun. If verified, that would put an end to the ambiguity that has defined the chart since the June 15 peak, 7648.75, and would define that peak as the end of rising wave D{-5}.

The evidence is not yet final. The decline from today’s high is sharp, but a confirmed wave E{-5} would require follow-through. A lower high followed by a decline below today’s low would strengthen the case. A move below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide stronger operational verification that wave D{-5} has ended and wave E{-5} is underway.

If wave E{-5} has begun, then the final subwave of wave 4{-4} is underway. Wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The end of wave E{-5} will also be the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of a months-long uptrend, wave 5{-4}.

Decision Points. A decline below today’s low, 7479.50, would strengthen the case that falling wave E{-5} has begun. A break below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide stronger verification that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that wave E{-5} is underway.

A rise back above today’s high, 7593.75, would weaken the wave E{-5} interpretation. A move above the June 15 peak, 7648.75, would invalidate the conclusion that wave E{-5} has begun and would verify that rising wave D{-5} remains underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply when the latest employment report was published before the opening bell. Non-farm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, while the unemployment rate, at 4.2%, changed little. The initial rise carried the price from the 7550s into the 7570s, but after 15 minutes the advance faltered and gave back much of the report-driven gain.

What does it mean? In terms of Elliott Wave Theory, the rise remained below yesterday’s high during a downward correction within rising wave D{-5}, and remained well below the wave D{-5} peak so far, 7648.75, set on June 15.

The initial extent of the rise added some credence to the conclusion that wave D{-5} is still underway. The sharp pullback from the 7570s, however, preserved the ambiguity that has dominated the chart. An alternative analysis concludes that wave D{-5} ended with the June 15 peak and that declining wave E{-5} has begun.

Which conclusion will prevail? Impossible to say at this point. A move above yesterday’s high would improve the bullish case. A continued failure from the 7570s, especially if the price falls back through the pre-report area, would keep open the alternative that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

All of this is happening within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The end of wave E{-5} will also be the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of a months-long uptrend, wave 5{-4}. Until then, the expanding triangle form taken by wave 4{-4} will continue.

Decision Points. A move above yesterday’s high, 7579, would improve the case that rising wave D{-5} remains underway. A move above the June 15 peak, 7648.75, would verify that conclusion.

A continued failure from the 7570s would preserve the ambiguity. A fall back through the pre-report area in the 7550s would weaken the bullish interpretation, and a decline below the overnight low, 7520.25, would strengthen the alternative that falling wave E{-5} has begun.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p,m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 2, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures, after falling to 7505.75, rose rapidly to a session high of 7579 and then pulled back into the 7550s. The move produced intraday drama, but it remains a series of relatively small movements that does little to bring certainty to an uncertain chart.

Elliott Wave Theory. The uncertainty still resides in which wave is now underway: rising wave D{-5} or falling wave E{-5}. Each is a subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that is taking the form of an expanding triangle.

In my years as a young trader, I occasionally heard older traders mutter, “The market can’t make up its mind.” I never believed that the market as a whole had a mind, but perhaps it is a reasonable description.

One thing we can bank on: The market will sooner or later “make up its mind,” and that will clarify the chart. When will that happen? No one knows.

Decision Points. A rise above the June 15 high, 7648.75, would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway and would leave rising wave C{-6} continuing within it.

A decline below today’s low, 7505.75, would weaken the near-term rise but would not by itself resolve the larger labeling. Stronger evidence for the alternate analysis would come if the price continues downward toward the upper boundary of the expanding triangle.

A break below that upper boundary would be the operational signal that wave D{-5} has ended and that wave E{-5} is underway. Until the price either rises above 7648.75 or breaks below the triangle boundary, the labeling remains unresolved, with D{-5} still the preferred analysis.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures began to decline late in yesterday’s session, from 7567.75, and continued falling overnight, reaching a low of 7510.50. The price then rose back into the 7530s and at the opening bell, fell sharply to 7505.75. The ADP employment report, released before the opening bell, showed that private-sector employment rose in June. The sharp decline coincided with a scheduled appearance by the new Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory remains caught between two possible analyses, with neither yet certain.

The more likely labeling is that wave D{-5}, which began on March 30 from 6353.25, is still underway. Less likely, but still possible, is that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 at 7648.75 and that downward wave E{-5} is now underway.

Both D{-5} and E{-5} are subwaves within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Such a structure has five subwaves. In the present labeling, D{-5} is the next-to-the-last wave, and E{-5} will be the final wave.

When wave E{-5} is complete, it will also mark the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of rising wave 5{-4}, which will carry the price above the highest point achieved by wave 4{-4}.

Decision Points. A rise above the June 15 high, 7648.75, would verify that wave D{-5} is still underway and would leave wave C{-6} continuing its rise.

A decline below the overnight low, 7510.50, would weaken the near-term rise but would not by itself resolve the larger labeling. The stronger evidence for the alternate analysis would come if the price continues downward toward the upper boundary of the expanding triangle.

A break below that upper boundary would be the operational signal that wave D{-5} has ended and that wave E{-5} is underway. Until the price either rises above 7648.75 or breaks below the triangle boundary, the labeling remains unresolved, with D{-5} still the preferred analysis.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 1, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New Yoek time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise during the session, crossing above 7560.

Elliott Wave Theory. Today’s session peak puts the price fewer than 90 points below the June 15 high, 7648.75, the present peak of the still-labeled wave D{-5}. The rise increases the odds that wave D{-5} remains underway, but it does not verify D{-5}’s status. Verification requires a move above 7648.75.

The alternate count remains that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that falling wave E{-5} is underway. That alternate label also remains unverified.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75, the June 15 high, would verify that wave D{-5} remains underway. A decline below 7232.25, the June 11 low and the beginning of wave C{-6}, would verify that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that wave E{-5} is underway. Until one of those levels is crossed, the chart remains ambiguous, although today’s rise gives the advantage for now to the wave D{-5} interpretation.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a low early in overnight trading, 7481.75, and then began to rise, reaching a high of 7517.50. From that point, the price reversed and declined rapidly. So far today, the price has remained within a relatively narrow range.

What does it mean? The overnight session does nothing to resolve the Elliott Wave Theory question that has dominated the S&P 500 during the latter half of June: Has rising wave D{-5} reached its end and falling wave E{-5} begun, or is wave D{-5} still underway? There has as yet been no verification that wave D{-5} has ended, and the chart labeling reflects that fact.

The answer matters a great deal. Both waves are subwaves of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The correction has taken the form of an expanding triangle, in which each wave moving in one direction is exceeded by the next wave moving in that same direction. The triangle tends to keep getting wider, producing an exaggerated effect.

The triangle will have five subwaves, and falling wave E{-5} will be the last. The previous falling wave in the triangle, wave C{-5}, ended at 6353.25. That means wave E{-5}, if it has begun, is likely to end below that level, perhaps considerably below. Or, as sometimes happens in the markets, it could come up short, a condition known as truncation.

Truncated or not, a decline of that magnitude would be disruptive.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75, the June 15 high, would verify that wave D{-5} remains underway. A decline below 7232.25, the June 11 low and the beginning of wave C{-6}, would verify that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that falling wave E{-5} is underway. Until one of those events occurs, the chart remains ambiguous, and both interpretations remain active. [Note: The original version had an error in describing verification that wave E{-5} is underway. The current version has been corrected.]

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 30, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New Yoek time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to climb during the session, reaching into the 7500s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The higher the rise, the more likely it becomes that rising wave D{-5} is continuing. The wave that began on March 30 from 6353.25 has so far has reached a peak of 7648.75, on June 15.

The D{-5} peak remains some distance above today’s high. A turn back down before reaching that level would increase the odds that rising wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that declining wave E{-5} has begun.

Decision Points. A continued rise would keep wave D{-5} alive and would shift attention back toward the June 15 high, 7648.75. A rise above that level would verify that wave D{-5} remains underway. A renewed decline would increase the likelihood that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that wave E{-5} has begun, with operational confirmation coming on a fall back below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, so far reaching a daily high of 7473.75. The price remains well below the June 15 peak, 7648.75, the high of the rise that began on March 30.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory counts that rise as wave D{-5}, the next-to-last wave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and which has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Since the June 15 peak, the price has worked its way lower, but not far enough to confirm that wave D{-5} has ended and that the final subwave, declining wave E{-5}, has begun. Nonetheless, that alternative remains a credible possibility.

The charts will retain wave D{-5} as the current wave until its completion is confirmed.

Decision Points. A continued rise would keep wave D{-5} alive and would shift attention back toward the June 15 high, 7648.75. A new high above that level would confirm that wave D{-5} is still underway. A renewed decline would increase the likelihood that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that wave E{-5} has begun. A fall below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide operational confirmation of that count.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 29, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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Based on work atwww.timbovee.com