Three-day Market Weekend. U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day, which honors U.S. military personnel who died in service. The S&P 500 futures will resume trading Monday evening.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued rising during the session, reaching 7524. The session high stands 16 points below 7540, the peak of the rise that began on March 30.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave D{-5} continues. If the futures exceed 7540, that would confirm that the May 14 peak was not the end of D{-5}, and that D{-5} remains the current subwave within wave 4{-4}, a corrective wave that began in October 2025.

That confirmation would not mean D{-5} has much farther to rise. This late in the structure, any new high can become the final high of D{-5}, followed by the beginning of declining wave E{-5}.

Decision Points. A move above 7540 would remove the May 14 peak as a possible completed D{-5} high and would keep the immediate count pointed upward.

A failure below 7540, followed by a decline back through 7500 and then the 7480s, would preserve the ambiguity and suggest that the futures may still be forming a topping structure.

A decline below today’s session low, 7466.75, would weaken the D{-5}-continues case. A move below the 7410s, and especially into the 7350s, would strengthen the alternate count that declining wave E{-5} has begun.

Until price either exceeds 7540 or falls with more force, the working count remains: D{-5} continues, but it is late enough that every high must be treated as potentially terminal.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise overnight, reaching slightly above 7500 for the first time since May 14. The price remains below the 7540 peak of the rise that began on March 30 from 6353.25.

What does it mean? When Elliott Wave Theory is applied, the case for rising wave D{-5} still being underway has been strengthened. For days there has been ambiguity over the status of the D wave: Had it ended on May 14, with declining wave E{-5} beginning, or was the D-wave rise continuing?

The alternative reading, that wave E{-5} has been underway since May 14, remains possible but has become less likely.

Decision Points. A move above 7540 would produce a new high within the rise from March 30 and would strongly support the view that wave D{-5} is still underway. It would not, by itself, prove that D has much farther to rise; this late in the structure, any new high can also become the final high of D.

A failure below 7540, followed by a decline back through the 7460s and then the 7410s, would restore the ambiguity and reopen the case that wave E{-5} may have begun at or near the May 14 high.

A decline into or below the 7350s would strengthen the wave E{-5} argument. Until that sort of downside follow-through appears, the better working count is that wave D{-5} remains active.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 330 minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 22, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began the session fluctuating sideways and about midway through rose sharply, from the 7420s into the 7480s, coinciding with official optimism that an agreement between the United States and Iran was drawing near.

Such bouts of optimism about the outcome of the war have tended to be followed by a return of pessimism and decline. This time? Time will tell.

Elliott Wave Theory. The peak of the session rise, 7486.75, remains below the May 14 peak of wave D{-5}, 7540. I consider wave D{-5} to still be underway, although there are persuasive arguments that the mid-May high may have been the end of wave D{-5} and the beginning of declining wave E{-5}.

Today’s rise weakens the immediate argument for wave E{-5}, but it does not eliminate it. The futures remain below the May 14 high, and until that high is exceeded, the chart remains ambiguous.

Decision Points. A rise above today’s high, 7486.75, would further weaken the argument that wave E{-5} has begun and would return attention to the May 14 peak, 7540. A move above 7540 would mean wave D{-5} is still underway.

A decline back into the 7420s would return the futures to the sideways area that dominated the early session. A decline below the 7407.50 area would strengthen the argument that today’s rise was only a counter-move within a larger decline.

A move below the recent lows in the 7350s would strengthen the wave E{-5} argument further. Until then, the prudent reading remains unchanged: wave D{-5} may still be underway, but the possibility that wave E{-5} has begun remains very much alive.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching a high of 7469.75, and then fell sharply to the 7410s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory focuses on the fact that wave D{-5} reached a high of 7540 on May 14, but price has not yet verified whether that peak ended the wave. If it did, then wave E{-5} has begun its decline and is likely to reach the 6280s or lower.

Each wave is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a declining corrective wave that began last year in October. Wave 4 has taken the form of an Expanding Triangle, and my estimate of how low wave E might go is based on the location of the triangle’s lower boundary, determined by connecting prior lows into a boundary of sorts.

Sometimes price moves beyond the boundary. For example, wave D{-5} has moved above the upper boundary and remains so.

So the bottom line is, today as in days before, wave D{-5} may still be underway, or wave E{-5} may have begun. And until it is verified that wave E has begun, the chart will label the current decline as a correction within rising wave D{-5}.

Decision Points. A rise above 7469.75, today’s overnight high, would weaken the argument that wave E{-5} has begun and would return attention to the May 14 peak, 7540. A move above 7540 would mean wave D{-5} is still underway.

A decline below the 7407.50 area would erase the most recent short-term rise and strengthen the argument that the May 14 high was the end of wave D{-5}. A decline below the recent lows in the 7350s would strengthen that argument further.

Stronger verification of wave E{-5} would require more than a short-term selloff. A sustained decline back toward the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle, now in the low 7100s, would make the wave E{-5} interpretation much harder to dismiss. Until then, the chart remains ambiguous: wave D{-5} may have ended, but it has not yet been proven to have ended.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 330 minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 21, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching 7458, well below the May 14 peak, 7540.

The Federal Open Market Committe, minutes, released at 2 p,m., produced little immediate movement in the futures. The FOMC sets interest rates, and the minutes carried a mildly hawkish tone, emphasizing persistent inflation risk and the possibility that policy may need to remain restrictive for longer. The futures absorbed the release without a decisive move.

Elliott Wave Theory: Price, not the Fed text, remains the deciding factor in whether wave D{-5} has ended and wave E{-5} has begun. And the price lacks clarity, leaving unanswered the question: Which wave is underway?

Decision Points. Decision Points. A move above today’s high, 7458, would show renewed short-term strength but would not by itself prove that wave D{-5} is still underway. Only a rise above the May 14 high, 7540, would confirm that wave D{-5} is continuing.

A decline below Tuesday’s low, 7354.25, would strengthen the case that wave E{-5} began at 7540. A sustained move below that level would give the chart a clearer lower-high, lower-low structure from the May 14 peak.

Until either level is broken, the futures remain in the ambiguity zone: strong enough to keep wave D{-5} alive, but not strong enough to prove it; weak enough to keep wave E{-5} possible, but not weak enough to confirm it.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from the 7350s into the 7410s, remaining within Tuesday’s bounds and well below the May 14 high of 7540. It then fell with the opening bell.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to lack a clear answer to the question posed by this chart: Is wave D{-5} continuing its rise, or did it end on May 14, with wave E{-5} now underway?

Both wave D{-5} and wave E{-5} are, or will be, subwaves of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began last October. When wave E{-5} is complete, it will also be the end of wave 4{-4}, and wave 5{-4} will begin a lengthy rise.

The end of wave E{-5} will also complete the Expanding Triangle that is the form taken by wave 4{-4}. In an Expanding Triangle, each rise exceeds the prior rise and each decline exceeds the prior decline, at the same degree. The line connecting the early highs provides a provisional upper guideline, and the line connecting the early lows provides the lower guideline.

Wave D{-5} has ignored the upper boundary, moving beyond it. More precisely, it has traded well beyond the provisional upper guideline drawn from the earlier highs. That does not, by itself, invalidate the triangle count, but it does keep the count under pressure. The map remains useful, but the terrain must now decide whether the May 14 high at 7540 was the end of D{-5}, or merely another pause within an unfinished rise.

Decision Points. A move above the overnight/current rebound area in the 7410s, and especially above the 7430s to 7450s, would weaken the argument that wave E{-5} has already begun. A move above 7540 would confirm that wave D{-5} is still extending.

A decline below Tuesday’s low, 7354.25, would strengthen the argument that wave E{-5} began at the May 14 high. A sustained move below that level would give the chart a clearer lower-high, lower-low structure from 7540.

A larger decline back toward the upper guideline, now roughly in the low 7200s and rising with time, would be stronger evidence that wave D{-5} is complete and that wave E{-5} is underway. That remains a larger confirmation level, not an immediate intraday trigger.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 330 minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 20, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures hit a session low of 7354.25 early on, then rebounded into the 7410s before retreating again.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline to the 7350s strengthens the argument that downward wave E{-5} may have begun. The rebound into the 7410s weakens that argument somewhat, but the price remains well below the overnight high of 7440.75, which keeps the E{-5} possibility alive.

The session low also moved below the first meaningful retracement test of wave D{-5}, which began March 30 at 6353.25 and peaked May 14 at 7540. That does not confirm wave E{-5}, but it is no longer a trivial pullback.

Nonetheless, wave E{-5} has not yet been confirmed. Until it is, I shall continue to treat upward wave D{-5} as the working count, with a rising probability that it ended May 14.

Decision Points.

A move above today’s rebound high in the 7410s would weaken the immediate bearish case and suggest that the futures are still trying to repair the decline.

A move above 7440.75, the overnight high, would further weaken the case that wave E{-5} has begun.

A move above 7540 would confirm that wave D{-5} remains underway.

A decline below 7354.25 would strengthen the argument that wave E{-5} has begun by producing a new session low after the failed rebound.

A decline into the low 7300s would give the E{-5} count more weight, especially if accompanied by lower highs and lower lows.

A decisive break back below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle would be stronger evidence that wave E{-5} is underway.

9:35 a.m. New York tim

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures worked their way lower overnight, falling from 7440.75 into the 7380s.

What does it mean? The working Elliott Wave Theory count still labels upward wave D{-5} as continuing, but with less certainty than before. The wave began on March 30 from 6353.25 and reached a peak of 7540 on May 14, a level that has not yet been challenged.

Bottom line: It is possible, although not yet certain, that wave D{-5} ended on May 14 and that downward wave E{-5} has begun.

Waves D and E are both subwaves of wave 4{-4}, a corrective wave that began last October and has taken the form of an Expanding Triangle. In that structure, each reversal point moves beyond the prior reversal point in the same direction. If the count is correct, wave E{-5} should eventually move below the end of wave C{-5}, 6353.25, and perhaps significantly below that price.

Decision Points.

A rise above 7440.75 would weaken the case that wave E{-5} has begun and would suggest that the overnight decline was only another pullback within still-rising wave D{-5}.

A rise above 7540 would confirm that wave D{-5} remains underway.

A sustained decline below the overnight low near 7380 would strengthen the possibility that wave E{-5} has begun, especially if the futures continue to make lower highs and lower lows during the session.

A deeper decline toward the 7360s would be the first meaningful retracement test of the May 14 peak. A decline below that area would make the E{-5} interpretation more plausible, though not yet fully proven.

A decisive break below the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle would be far stronger evidence that wave E{-5} is underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 330 minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 19, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a higher high for the day, 7454.25, early in the session, and then began to fall, so far reaching the 7370s before reclaiming part of the fall.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave D{-5} remains the working count — probably. At this point, every peak is potentially the end of wave D{-5} and the beginning of declining wave E{-5}, after it is confirmed. So far, no end of D{-5} has been confirmed.

Decision Points. The immediate question is whether the decline from 7454.25 is merely another pullback within wave D{-5}, or the early stage of wave E{-5}.

On the downside, the first important level is the overnight low at 7375. A move below that level would increase the likelihood that 7540, the May 14 high, was the end of wave D{-5}. The next stronger marker is near 7362, a 15% retracement of the full wave D{-5} rise from March 30. A sustained move below 7362 would not absolutely prove that wave E{-5} is underway, but it would be the first serious evidence for that interpretation.

On the upside, a recovery back above the 7400s would weaken the immediate E{-5} case. A rise above 7454.25 would show that today’s decline was only another failed attempt to turn the trend. A rise above 7540 would confirm that wave D{-5} is still extending.

For now, the map has not changed, but the terrain is pressing hard against the edge of the map. Wave D{-5} remains the working label, while wave E{-5} has become a live possibility that requires close attention.

9:35 a.m. New York tim

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached an overnight low of 7375 shortly after trading resumed, and then began to climb, so far reaching the 7450s. The price remains below the peak of the rise that began on March 30, which is 7540, attained on May 14.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to track wave D{-5} as rising. It began on March 30 from 6353.25.

Wave D{-5} is the next-to-the-last wave within wave 4{-4}, a declining corrective wave that began on October 29, 2025, from 6953.75. The 4th wave has taken the form of an Expanding Triangle, meaning that each peak is higher than the end of the previous rising wave, and each trough is lower than the end of the previous falling wave.

The Expanding Triangle, when complete, will have five subwaves, each containing three subwaves.

One method for reading the progress of an Expanding Triangle is to draw lines connecting the first two peaks and the first two troughs. They act as likely reversal points, a boundary of sorts, but sometimes their role is more that of a pause point before the move continues beyond the boundary. That is what has happened with wave D{-5}.

When will it end? Impossible to say. It appears to be nearing its end, completing wave D{-5} and marking the start of wave E{-5}, but there is no verification that it has done so yet.

Decision Points. A rise above the overnight high, 7453.25, would show that the rebound from 7375 remains active. A rise above 7540 would confirm that wave D{-5} is still extending and that wave E{-5} has not yet begun.

On the downside, a fall below 7375 would renew the possibility that wave D{-5} ended at 7540 and that falling wave E{-5} has begun. The next important level is near 7362, which is a 15% retracement of the entire wave D{-5} rise from March 30. A sustained move below that level would be the first stronger evidence for the E{-5} interpretation.

Even then, the label should be changed cautiously. At this stage, the better reading is: wave D{-5} remains the working count, but the market is now close enough to the top of that wave that any failure below recent lows must be taken seriously.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 330 minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 18, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p,m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a low for the day, 7420.25, early in the session, 222and thereafter worked their way a bit higher, briefly reaching into the 7470s before pulling back.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave D{-5} continues. The overnight and early-session decline increased the ambiguity, but the price has not yet broken enough structure to require labeling the May 14 high as the end of D{-5} and the start of falling wave E{-5}.

Decision Points. A move above Thursday’s high, 7540, would support the working count that wave D{-5} remains alive and still rising. A move below 7399, the May 13 low, would weaken that view and increase the likelihood that wave E{-5} has begun. A deeper decline toward 7362 — about a 15% retracement of the March 30 to May 14 rise — would provide stronger evidence for the E{-5} interpretation.

For now, the map has not changed. Wave D{-5} remains the working label, while the possibility that E{-5} has already begun remains an available alternate.

9:35 a.m. New York tim

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight from yesterday’s close, 7527.75, to a low so far of 7429.75. Context: The low remains above the May 13 low, 7399.

What does it mean? That context supports keeping the current Elliott Wave Theory working count: wave D{-5} remains underway, rising from its March 30 start at 6353.25. That wave is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downtrending corrective wave that began on October 29, 2025 from 6953.75.

However, an alternative remains available: March 30 may have ended wave A{-5}, with the current advance forming wave B{-5} of a still-developing Expanding Triangle. The distinction matters because the working count implies a mature D wave awaiting E, while the alternate implies a larger and less mature correction still unfolding.

The rise since March, despite the upward clarity of its energy, carries with it a lot of ambiguity.

Decision Points. A move above yesterday’s high, 7540, would support the working count that wave D{-5} remains alive and still rising. A sustained move below 7399 would weaken that view by breaking the most recent significant low within the advance. A deeper decline toward 7362 — roughly a 15% retracement of the March 30 to May 14 rise — would give stronger evidence that wave E{-5} may have begun.

Even then, certainty would remain limited. In an Expanding Triangle, the map matters, but the terrain rules. The practical question is whether the decline becomes large enough and structured enough to treat the May 14 high as the end of D{-5}. For now, it has not done so.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 330 minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 15, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures climbed during the session to a new high, 7540, then pulled back to 7507 before returning to the 7530s

Elliott Wave Theory: Wave D{-5} may still be underway, but this late in the advance, any peak can become wave D’s endpoint .and the starting point of falling wave E{-5}. The decline from 7540 is not yet large enough to confirm that change, but it is enough to put the possibility on the chart.

Decision Points. The new high, 7540, is now the upside marker. A move above that level would keep wave D{-5} in force.

A failure to regain 7540, followed by lower highs and lower lows, would increase the likelihood that wave D{-5} has ended and wave E{-5} has begun. The first nearby warning level is the session pullback low, 7507. A decline below that level would show that the post-high retreat is continuing. A move below the earlier session low, 7471, would be stronger evidence that the structure is shifting.

The larger alert remains unchanged: A decline toward or below 7252 would be the first meaningful signal that wave D{-5} has ended and wave E{-5} is underway. Until then, the chart remains in a transition zone: D{-5} still possible, E{-5} increasingly possible, confirmation still pending.

9:35 a.m. New York tim

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a new high, 7499.25, as the opening bell approached, then began to fall, with the decline picking up after the morning economic reports, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims, were published.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory suggests little change in the analysis of the futures. Wave D{-5} continues to work its way higher as the next-to-the-last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction.

The chart below shows a close-up of wave D{-5}, encompassed by the upper and lower boundaries, the red lines, of wave 4{-4}, which began last November and is taking the form of an Expanding Triangle.

Decision Points. The overnight high, 7499.25, is now the upside marker. A move above that level would confirm that wave D{-5} remains in force. A continued decline would not, by itself, prove that wave E{-5} has begun. The first warning would be a fall back toward the 7420s, and stronger evidence would require a much larger retracement of the rise from March 30. My current alert remains at or below 7252, the level I’m using as the first meaningful signal that wave D{-5} may have ended and wave E{-5} may be underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 14, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a session high of 7483.75 and then pulled back into the 7460s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Wave D{-5} continues to climb, with brief pullbacks but no meaningful reversal. Today’s high extended the D{-5} advance and kept rising wave C{-6} alive within that structure.

Wave D{-5} is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began last October and is taking the form of an Expanding Triangle. When D{-5} ends, declining wave E{-5} will begin from that same point and will be the final subwave of the Triangle.

Decision Points. A move above 7483.75 would further extend wave D{-5}. A decline below today’s low at 7399 would be the first warning that the rise is weakening, but would not by itself confirm the start of E{-5}. A decline below Tuesday’s low at 7363.25 would be a stronger warning. A deeper decline toward the 7252 area would provide more meaningful evidence that wave E{-5} is underway.

9:35 a.m. New York tim

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures dropped sharply into the 7410s when the Producer Price Index was published an hour before the opening bell. The April PPI rose by 1.4% compared with the prior month.

What does it mean? Wave D{-5} in Elliott Wave Theory still continues to rise. The low so far today remains above Tuesday’s low in the 7360s, so the wave’s net movement remains up.

It’s also true that wave D{-5} is near its end, and any higher high has the potential to become both the endpoint of D{-5} and the starting point of declining wave E{-5}.

All of this is taking place within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began last October and is taking the form of an Expanding Triangle. Wave E{-5} will be the final subwave of the Triangle and, under the usual Elliott Wave structure for a triangle leg, should contain three subwaves.

Decision Points. A move above 7454.75 would extend wave D{-5} and keep rising wave C{-6} alive. A decline below today’s post-PPI low in the 7410s would show renewed weakness, but would not by itself end D{-5}. A decline below Tuesday’s low at 7363.25 would be the first stronger warning that D{-5} may have ended. A deeper decline toward the 7252 area would provide more meaningful evidence that wave E{-5} is underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 5-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 13, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued the overnight fall into the session, reaching a low of 7363.25 and then recovering into the 7410s before slipping back slightly.

Elliott Wave Theory: Despite the daily drama, the futures show far more up than down since the rise, wave D{-5}, began on March 30. At it’s low point today, the price remains well above 7149, the approximate location today of the upper boundary of the Expanding Triangle that has been underway since last November.

The Triangle is the form taken by wave 4{-4}, and the D wave is a subwave within that structure. The boundary is calculated by connecting the first two subwave highs to create the upper boundary and the first two subwave lows to make the lower bounday. Each boundary is expanded into the future, so the price location of the boundary keeps changing. The upper boundary moves higher, and the lower boundary, further to the downside.

Decision Points. A rise above 7454.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} is still extending. A sustained move back above the 7420s would strengthen the case that today’s decline was only an intraday pullback. A decline below today’s low of 7363.25 would show renewed weakness, but would not by itself confirm the start of wave E{-5}. Stronger evidence of E{-5} would begin near 7289.50, a 15% retracement of the rise from the March 30 low of 6353.25 to the current D{-5} high. A move toward the upper triangle boundary, now near 7149, would put the larger D-wave interpretation under serious pressure.

9:35 a.m. New York tim

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined slowly for most of overnight trading until the latest inflation report was published an hour before the opening bell. The price rapidly fell to 7398.75, followed by an immediate rebound that a half hour later had reached the 7420s. The CPI report showed headline CPI rising 0.6% in April and 3.8% over 12 months, with core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rising 0.4% for the month.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory, when applied, concludes that the rapid rebound signals that wave D{-5} is continuing it’s rise within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction. When wave D{-5} has reached it’s end, it will be followed by declining wave E{-5}, which will bring wave 4{-4} to a close.

Decision Points. A rise above 7454.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} is still extending. A decline below 7398.75 would show that the post-CPI rebound has failed, but it would not by itself confirm the start of wave E{-5}. Stronger evidence of E{-5} would begin near 7289.50, a 15% retracement of the rise from the March 30 low of 6353.25 to the present D{-5} high of 7454.75.

Until then, the map remains unchanged: wave D{-5} is still rising, and the CPI reaction is a test of that count, not yet a reason to replace it.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p,m., 5-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 12, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching a new high, 7454.75, in the rise that began on March 30.

Elliott Wave Theory: Wave D{-5} continues to rise, the next-to-last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction. Today’s new high keeps the D{-5} label intact and confirms that the rise has not yet yielded to declining wave E{-5}.

Decision Points. A continued rise above 7454.75 would further extend wave D{-5}. A decline back below Friday’s 7427.75 high would be the first sign of weakening, but not enough by itself to confirm that wave D{-5} has ended.

A stronger warning would come with a sustained move below 7400, especially if followed by a failed attempt to reclaim that level. The larger confirmation level remains 7252, about a 15% retracement of the rise from 6353.25 to today’s high. A move below that level would shift the working label from “wave D{-5} still rising” to “probable wave E{-5} underway.”

Until then, wave D{-5} remains active, but late-stage and vulnerable, especially with CPI scheduled before Tuesday’s open.

9:35 a.m. New York tim

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures gapped lower when trading resumed on Sunday, following problems with the Iran War negotiations. Overnight, the price remained below Friday’s peak, 7427.75, fluctuating largely between 7400 and 7420, with occasional breakout attempts.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the rise that began on March 30 continuing as it works through its endgame. The rise is an uptrending subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began in October 2025 and that has taken the form of an Expanding Triangle.

That form implies several things. 1) The Triangle will have five subwaves. 2) Each subwave will have three smaller subwaves. 3) Each rising subwave within wave 4{-4} will travel higher than the previous rising subwave, and each declining subwave will travel lower.

The present wave is labelled as wave D{-5}, the next-to-the-last subwave within wave 4{-4}. That’s where the ambiguity begins.

The present version of the chart counts wave D{-5} as being in its third and final subwave, wave C{-6}. However, there’s a lack of clarity in the wave structure, and it could be that the rise that began on March 30 is wave A{-6} within wave D{-5}, with a future declining wave B{-6} and rising wave C{-6} still ahead.

In either case, the end of rising wave D{-5}, whether it happens sooner or later, will be followed by declining wave E{-5}, which will carry the price lower than 6353.25, the price from which wave D{-5} began.

The end of wave E{-5}, in the normal course of events, will also be the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of rising wave 5{-4}.

Decision Points. A rise above 7427.75 would continue wave D{-5} and keep the immediate upward structure intact. A decline below the overnight low, 7390.50, would be the first sign that the upward push is weakening, but not enough by itself to confirm that wave D{-5} has ended.

A stronger warning would come with a sustained move below 7400, followed by a failure to reclaim that level. The more important confirmation level remains 7252, about a 15% retracement of the rise from 6353.25 to 7427.75. A move below that level would shift the working label from “wave D{-5} still rising” to “probable wave E{-5} underway.”

Until that happens, the map remains: wave D{-5} is still active, but late-stage and vulnerable.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p,m., 5-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 11, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com