3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futurescontinued falling during the session, reaching a low of 7711.25, and then began tracing a sideways fluctuation between the 7710s and the 7730s.

Elliott Wave Theory’s analysis remains unchanged from this morning. Falling wave C{-6} within falling wave E{-5} began on Thursday.

There is still some ambiguity as to the size of the subwaves. Wave E{-5} began its decline on August 13. At that point, wave A{-6} also began.

Under the present analysis, wave A{-6} ended on September 2, rising wave B{-6} ended on September 3, and falling wave C{-6}, the final subwave, is underway while wave E{-5} remains above the upper boundary of their parent, wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The target for E{-5} — by target I mean the behavior most often seen with subwaves within expanding triangles — is the lower boundary of the triangle, still some distance away.

An alternative analysis would consider wave A{-6} to still be underway. Under that hypothesis, the subwaves now labeled at the {-7} degree would actually be lower-degree waves within wave A{-7}. They might be at the {-8} degree, or perhaps even the {-9} degree within {-8} within A{-7} within A{-6}. The rise now labeled B{-6} would likewise belong to a lower degree.

The problem is that there is no convincing way to label wave degrees until the waves have had enough time to draw their patterns. Wave E{-5}’s predecessor, rising wave D{-5}, took more than four months to reach completion. Wave E{-5} has been underway for less than a month.

For now, I’ll keep the chart as it is. Over the weekend I’ll compare the present decline with other subwaves of the expanding triangle in an effort to develop a more nuanced view of which degree labels are most appropriate.

Decision Points. The uncertainty concerns the degree of the present waves rather than the larger conclusion that wave E{-5} is declining. No new positions will be opened today. Over the weekend I shall reassess the wave degrees before making decisions based on the present labeling.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 futures fell sharply after a much stronger-than-expected Employment Situation report showed robust job growth, steady unemployment and upward revisions to prior months. The good economic news was bad news for stocks because it reduced the case for easier Federal Reserve policy and raised the prospect of interest rates remaining higher for longer. As the opening bell sounded the stock began to rise.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory, when applied, concludes that rising wave B{-6} appears to have ended at Thursday’s peak, and declining wave C{-6} appears to be underway. Wave C{-6} is the third and final wave within declining wave E{-5}, which is the final wave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. The apparent transition from wave B{-6} to wave C{-6} is still young and requires further confirmation. With the Employment Situation report producing a sharp market reaction and Friday already designated as a no-new-entry day, I shall open no new positions. Existing holdings will be managed as needed.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 9/3/2026, 7758.75 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 4, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 7760s. The price remains below the previous peak, 7838.50, set on August 13.

Elliott Wave Theory. Wave A{-6} within wave E{-5} has ended after completing a three-subwave movement. Rising wave B{-6} has begun. All of these waves are part of the downward correction, wave 4{-4}.

I’ve posted a new chart showing the subwaves — A{-7}, B{-7} and C{-7} — within falling wave A{-6}, as well as the initial rise of wave B{-6}, which began on September 2.

The chart traces the market from the beginning of wave E{-5} at 7838.50.

Has wave A{-6} really and truly ended? Elliott Wave Theory gives us no mechanical way of making such decisions beyond an educated guess. We look at the prior subwaves and decide whether the new wave’s distances are “reasonable”. I made my decision because waves A{-6} and B{-6} within wave D{-5} were notably longer than A{-6} within wave E{-5} had traveled. So by placing the degree of the three-wave decline from August 13 one size lower, I give wave E{-5} a way to extend its lifespan.

Decision Points. The rise from Wednesday’s low is consistent with a countertrend wave B{-6}. That makes the immediate direction upward, although the larger structure remains bearish: wave B{-6} is a corrective rise within declining wave E{-5}. With Friday’s Employment Situation Report approaching, no new position is warranted.

Chart. I’m leaving this morning’s chart, below, as it appeared at 9:35 a.m. New York time. The new chart, below, shows the close-up as explained above.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-hour bars with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures largely drifted sideways overnight, widening their range as the session drew nearer. After the release of the 8:30 a.m. ET economic reports, the futures rose sharply to 7710s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to see wave A{-6} within wave E{-5} as being underway. Both are declining waves, with wave A{-6} being the first subwave within wave E{-5}, which in turn is the final subwave of the downward correction encompassing market movements since October 29, 2025, wave 4{-4}.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, and during wave D{-5} the S&P 500 moved well above the triangle’s upper boundary. It still has a significant distance to decline merely to return within the triangle. Wave E{-5} could eventually carry it toward the lower boundary, although Elliott Wave rules do not require it to do so.

Decision Points. The post-report rise changes nothing in the Elliott Wave analysis. There is no evidence yet that declining wave A{-6} has ended. With Thursday already designated a no-new-entry day, the task is observation and management of existing holdings rather than opening new positions.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 3, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traveled slightly lower during the session, into the 7670s.

Elliott Wave Theory. This morning’s analysis stands unchanged. Wave A{-6} within wave E{-5} — both declining waves — continues.

Decision Points. The session provided no evidence that wave A{-6} has ended. The Elliott wave structure therefore continues to point downward, although counter-trend rises can occur at any time within the decline.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight, reaching a low of 7618.50, and then began to rise, reaching a high of 7658.75. From that point, the futures began to give back some of the gain.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees wave A{-6} as continuing its net decline within wave E{-5}, the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Wave E{-5} remains above the upper boundary of the triangle, suggesting that it still has a large distance to travel before reaching its end. Although the wave can come up short, ending before reaching the lower boundary, or can travel well beyond the boundary, as wave D{-5} did, a typical subwave within an expanding triangle will end in the neighborhood of the boundary, presently in the 6170s and declining slightly with each trading session.

Decision Points. The overnight rise from 7618.50 changes nothing in the larger analysis. Counter-trend rises are to be expected within declining wave A{-6}. The first important structural milestone would be for wave E{-5} to return within the boundaries of the triangle, requiring a decline to roughly the 7300 area at present. Until the price action provides evidence that wave A{-6} has ended, the Elliott-wave structure continues to point downward.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the wave before, rising wave D{-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 2, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures spent much of the session fluctuating between the 7640s and the 7670s, before resuming their decline late in the session and reaching a session low in the 7620s, the lowest the current decline has gone since it began on August 13.

Elliott Wave Theory. Falling wave A{-6} within falling wave E{-5} continues. The decline remains within the third wave of wave A{-6}, although the degree of that third wave remains uncertain.

Decision Points. The late-session move to a new low strengthens the case that wave A{-6} remains underway. There is no chart evidence yet that the decline has completed. Any substantial reversal would begin another wave at some degree, but only subsequent price action will tell us where that turn belongs within the Elliott Wave hierarchy.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined overnight, from an early high of 7708 down into the 7640s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the decline as wave E{-5}, the final subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, meaning that each rising subwave goes higher than the previous rising subwave, and each falling subwave goes lower than the previous falling subwave. Expanding triangles tend to take more time to reach completion, and wave 4{-4} is certainly an example of that.

One way to gauge the future width of the triangle is to draw lines connecting the beginning of wave A with the end of wave B, setting a boundary for future rising waves, and the end of wave A with the end of wave C, setting a boundary for future falling waves.

Note that the lines, in blue on the chart, are boundaries, not fences. Boundaries can be crossed, and that’s what the next-to-the-last subwave, rising wave D{-5}, did, big time. Now that the final subwave, falling wave E{-5}, is underway, it is heading toward the lower boundary, where it may end, fall short or perhaps move beyond.

It is difficult to know for sure which wave within wave E{-5} is underway. We can tell from the chart that the decline within wave A{-6} is now in its third wave. What we don’t know for sure is the degree of those three waves—whether they are one degree below wave A{-6}, or several degrees lower. (See the “Reading the chart” section below.)

As is so often the conclusion in Elliott Wave Theory: Time will tell.

Decision Points. Falling waves E{-5} and A{-6} remain underway. The overnight decline gives no persuasive evidence that wave A{-6} has reached an end; the 5-minute chart continues to show lower highs and lower lows. The next important structural milestone will be a return within the expanding triangle, below its upper boundary. A rise above the August 13 high of 7838.50 would require reconsideration of the present wave count.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the other subwaves within the expanding triangle that is wave 4{-4}, a downward correction.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 1, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. After reaching a session low of 7674.75 shortly after the opening bell, the S&P 500 futures spent much of the session fluctuating within a narrow range, occasionally bouncing back a bit and then retreating.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis is unchanged. Falling wave A{-6} continues within falling wave E{-5}.

Decision Points. The session produced no evidence requiring a change in the bearish count. The trend remains downward, although today’s narrow movement gives no indication of when the decline will accelerate.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened at 7724 when trading resumed overnight, fell to 7683.75, rose to 7718.50, and then began to work its way lower.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees no change in the analysis since Friday. Falling wave A{-6} continues within falling wave E{-5}, and both are within an expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, which began on October 29, 2025.

On the chart, the expanding triangle’s boundaries are drawn in blue. Wave E{-5}, now above the upper boundary, can be expected to work its way toward the lower boundary as its downward journey continues. In a normally developing expanding triangle, wave E{-5} would eventually move beyond the end of wave C{-5}, at 6353.25, although truncation remains possible.

Decision Points. The overnight decline supports the bearish count but gives no indication yet of how rapidly wave E{-5} will develop. I’ll continue to treat the trend as downward while watching for wave E{-5} to move back within the triangle and continue toward the lower boundary.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 31 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a session peak of 7782.50 after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh finished his Jackson Hole address, and then fell to a session low of 7711.75.

Elliott Wave Theory. The rise remained below the August 13 peak at 7838.50, which marks the end of rising wave D{-5} and the beginning of declining wave E{-5}. The decline that followed lent additional credence to the wave E{-5} scenario.

Decision Points. The afternoon decline carried /ES well below both the post-speech peak and the range that prevailed before Warsh spoke. A continued decline would further strengthen the case that falling wave A{-6}, the first subwave of E{-5}, remains underway. A rise above 7838.50 would invalidate that interpretation.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to an overnight low of 7727.25 early in trading and then began to rise, reaching the 7750s in the hours before Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s 10 a.m. ET speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to see falling wave A{-6} as underway. It is the initial subwave within falling wave E{-5}, which began on August 13 and is the final subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Decision Points. Warsh’s speech has the potential to produce a sharp market reaction. The rise from the overnight low is not, by itself, evidence that falling wave A{-6} has ended.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 28, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose to a peak of 7755.50 and then fell rapidly to the 7720s.

The Elliott Wave Theory analysis is unchanged. Wave A{-6} continues its downward trend, as does its parent, wave E{-5}.

Decision Points. A decline below 7707, the overnight low, would strengthen the case that wave A{-6} is extending downward. A rise above today’s 7755.50 high would weaken the immediate bearish momentum but would not alter the Elliott Wave count. The larger bearish structure remains intact unless /ES rises above the Aug. 13 high of 7838.50.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a high, 7741.25, early in overnight trading and then began to fall, reaching a low of 7707 before rising into the 7730s and then beginning to decline again, falling further as the opening bell sounded..

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: Unchanged. Falling wave A{-6} within falling wave E{-5} continues.

Decision Points. The overnight low of 7707 is the nearest marker for the decline. A break below that level would strengthen the case that wave A{-6} is extending downward and would put the recent lows in the 7670s and 7650s back in play. A move above 7741.25 would weaken the immediate bearish momentum but would not alter the Elliott Wave count. The larger count remains intact unless /ES rises above the Aug. 13 high of 7838.50.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 27, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures whipsawed throughout the session, staying between the 7670s and a few points above 7700. That remains within the range that has bound the futures for the past five trading sessions, roughly the 7650s to the 7710s.

Elliott Wave Theory. As might be expected during a period of constrained price movement, the analysis has also gone nowhere. Falling wave A{-6} remains underway within falling wave E{-5}.

Decision Points. A sustained break below the five-session low at 7655 would provide fresh evidence that wave A{-6} is extending downward. A sustained move above the 7710s would break the recent range to the upside and could signal a countertrend rise within A{-6}, but would not by itself alter the larger bearish count.

Close-up Chart. A chart showing the narrow band traced by the S&P 500 futures during the five session’s ending with today’s.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 10-minute bars with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to an overnight low of 7670.75, then returned to the 7680s and 7690s and traded sideways until the economic reports were released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The price then whipsawed, rising to 7698.50 before falling to 7676.50.

What does it mean? Despite the drama, Elliott Wave Theory sees no change in the analysis. Falling wave A{-6} continues. It is the first subwave of falling wave E{-5}, which in turn is the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Decision Points. A break below Tuesday’s 7663.25 low would provide fresh confirmation that wave A{-6} is continuing lower. A sustained rise above the recent trading range would suggest that an upward correction within A{-6} is underway, but would not by itself alter the larger bearish count. The 7838.50 high of August 13 remains the key structural level for the present wave analysis.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 26, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. From the overnight peak of 7714, the S&P 500 futures fell to 7663.25 during the session, and then rose back into the 7690s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis is unchanged from this morning. Wave A{-6} and its parent, wave E{-5}, are underway, both of them falling waves.

Decision Points. A decline below 7663.25 would strengthen the case that wave A{-6} is continuing downward. A rise above 7714 would suggest that the present upward correction has further to run, without by itself changing the larger bearish count.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching a high of 7714, and then took back part of the gain, falling into the 7690s as the opening bell sounded.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory, when applied, sees the rise as a small counter-trend movement within falling wave A{-6}, which in turn is a subwave of falling wave E{-5}. The structure is encompassed by wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Wave 4{-4} began on October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. A renewed decline below Monday’s low in the 7650s would strengthen the case that wave A{-6} is continuing downward. A rise above the overnight high of 7714 would extend the counter-trend movement but would not by itself alter the larger bearish count. A move above 7838.50, the August 13 peak, would invalidate the present placement of the start of wave E{-5}.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 25, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures stayed largely in the 7670s and 7680s during the session, after reaching a low of 7655.

Elliott Wave Theory. Unchanged from this morning. Declining waves E{-5} and A{-6} continue.

Decision Points. The session low of 7655 extends wave A{-6} slightly lower but does not otherwise change the analysis. There is no evidence yet that wave A{-6} has ended or that an upward wave B{-6} has begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to fall after trading resumed, declining from 7703.25 early overnight to 7664.50 before rebounding into the upper 7670s as the opening bell drew near.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis continues to see declining wave E{-5} and its initial subwave A{-6} as being underway. Wave E{-5}, which began on August 13, is the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Wave 4{-4} is in the form of an expanding triangle, where each rising subwave ends higher than the one before, and each falling subwave ends lower than the one before.

The prior falling subwave, wave C{-5}, reached completion at 6353.25. Wave E{-5} can be expected to reach that level and perhaps lower before reaching its end.

Decision Points. The overnight decline to 7664.50 adds further evidence that wave A{-6} is continuing. The rebound from that low is, so far, too small to suggest that A{-6} has ended. Eventually, however, A{-6} will give way to an upward B{-6} correction, so countertrend rallies should be expected without being mistaken automatically for the end of E{-5}. A move above the August 13 high of 7838.50 would contradict the present count and require a reassessment.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 24, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com