Friday holiday. U.S. stock, options and futures markets will be closed on Friday, April 3, for Good Friday, a Christian holiday. Bonds will close early, at noon New York time. Trading will resume on Monday, April 6. The Employment Situation Report will be published on Friday, and Monday will be the first session to produce a reaction, if any.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now.
The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to fall overnight, extending the decline from Wednesday’s high at 6653.75.

The price rose modestly ahead of President Trump’s national address on the Iran War, then sold off sharply as the speech began, driving the market down to an overnight low of 6503.75 before a partial rebound.

Initial jobless claims, released at 8:30 a.m. ET, showed continued labor market stability, with claims falling to 202,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the prior week.

What does it mean? In Elliott Wave Theory terms, the decline is now testing the structure of rising wave B{-6}. The drop from 6653.75 to 6503.75 is sharp and has retraced roughly half of the wave’s advance, raising a legitimate question as to whether B{-6} has already ended and wave C{-6} has begun.

The decline creates a case for wave C, but it remains too limited in structure and follow-through to confirm that interpretation. The price action so far appears more consistent with a volatile internal correction than with the start of a sustained impulsive decline.

For the moment, I am maintaining the working assumption that wave B{-6} remains underway. Within the larger structure, B{-6} is a subwave of declining wave C{-5}, which in turn is part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction taking the form of an expanding triangle.

Decision Points. Above 6560–6580, the corrective interpretation remains intact and B{-6} can resume higher. A break above 6653.75 would confirm that extension.

Between 6500 and 6560, the structure remains unresolved and likely to produce continued volatility.

Below 6500, the probability increases that B{-6} ended at Wednesday’s high. Acceleration below 6480 would confirm that wave C{-6} is underway.

Likelihood favors B{-6} still unfolding, while a sustained break below 6500 would shift the count to a developing C{-6} decline.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 2, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a peak of 6653.75 during the session and then declined, approaching 6600 before bouncing back into the 6620s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave B{-6} continues. The pullback has so far remained well above the wave’s starting point at 6353.25. As long as the price remains above that level, the rising structure of B{-6} remains intact.

Decision Points. A move above 6653.75 would signal that rising wave B{-6} is still extending and could carry higher within the 6620–6680 target zone. A break below 6600 would suggest that the rally is losing momentum, though only a deeper decline would begin to call the B{-6} count into question.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, spiking to a high of 6643.75 following the release of the ADP National Employment Report for March. The federal government’s Employment Situation Report will be released on Friday, when U.S. markets are closed. The price immediately retreated to 6590.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the rise as further confirmation that wave B{-6} is underway. That wave is a subwave of declining wave C{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and is taking the form of an expanding triangle.

Decision Points. The overnight high pushed the price into the 6620–6680 target range, based on resistance levels within the Elliott Wave structure. However, the sharp rejection suggests that wave B{-6} is still unfolding and has not yet reached completion.

A sustained move back above 6620 would signal continuation toward the upper end of the range, while failure below 6560 would suggest the rally has stalled and call the B{-6} count into question.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 1, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose rapidly during the session, reaching a high so far in the 6560s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The rise carried the price above a key decision point at 6480, confirming that wave A{-6} ended overnight at 6353.25 and that rising wave B{-6} is now underway.

How high is wave B{-6} likely to rise? The rally is now in progress, with a likely target in the 6620–6680 range, based on nearby resistance levels. Above 6480, the rally remains intact; failure below that level would call the count into question.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? Shortly after Monday’s session ended, the S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to a low of 6353.25 and then began to rise, so far reaching 6470.

What does it mean? I’ve reworked the chart to show a broader view of the Elliott Wave Theory structure—the entirety of wave 4{-4}, a correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Wave 4{-4} is currently in wave C{-5}. As an expanding triangle, it will ultimately have five subwaves, ending with wave E{-5}. Wave C{-5} is in its first subwave, A{-6}, and will end with wave C{-6}.

In theory, although not always in practice, wave C{-5} in the triangle—a falling wave in this case—moves beyond the end of wave A{-5}, and wave D{-5} will move beyond the end of wave B{-5}. The entire wave 4{-4} structure began on October 29, 2025, and has not yet completed its middle wave. We likely have months to go before wave 4{-4} reaches its end.

The overnight low might well be the end of wave A{-6}, or perhaps not. The nature of the overnight rise isn’t yet clear enough to know with confidence. For the moment, I’ve retained the A{-6} label and am assuming it is still in progress.

Decision Points. The key question is whether wave A{-6} has reached completion.

Primary resistance (decision zone): 6460–6480

• Reclaim and hold above 6480 → A{-6} is likely complete
• Confirms transition into rising B{-6}
• Expect continuation higher, not a fade

Failure zone (bear continuation): 6450–6460

• Repeated rejection here → A{-6} still unfolding
• Current rally = corrective bounce within the decline

Downside confirmation: below 6353.25

• Break of overnight low → A{-6} not finished
• Opens path toward next leg lower within C{-5}

Early warning level: 6400–6420

Suggests B{-6} has not taken control

Loss of this zone after rally — signals weakness

Bottom line: Above 6480, the market shifts into a confirmed B{-6} rally. Below 6353, A{-6} is still driving lower. Between those levels, we are in a transition zone where the structure is still resolving.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 31, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reversed shortly after the session began and have continued to decline, reaching into the 6350s, below the overnight low of 6360.25.

Elliott Wave Theory. The overnight rally to 6481.75 has turned out to be an upward correction within the ongoing decline of wave A{-6}. The subsequent price action has been orderly and persistent, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows rather than a sharp, news-driven drop.

Falling wave A{-6} is a subwave of wave C{-5} within the larger 4{-4} expanding triangle. The session’s decline appears to be part of the final leg of A{-6}. Until the market can reclaim and hold above the 6460–6480 area, my working assumption remains that the downtrend continues.

The higher-probability path remains for further downside to complete wave A{-6}, after which a more sustained countertrend rally, wave B{-6}, will begin.

Decision Points.

• Upside confirmation (B{-6} underway): A sustained move back above 6460–6480 would indicate that wave A{-6} has likely completed and that a countertrend rally in wave B{-6} is in progress.
• Downside continuation (A{-6} still active): A break below 6360.25 would confirm that wave A{-6} remains incomplete and that the decline is continuing into a lower level.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened Sunday evening with a small opening gap to the downside and continued lower, reaching 6360.25. From that point, the market rose into the 6450s. At one point, the price briefly spiked to 6481.75 with a rise in volume, then quickly retreated to the 6450s.

What does it mean? The larger Elliott Wave Theory structure remains unchanged. The market continues to trace out falling wave A{-6}, a subwave of wave C{-5} within the broader 4{-4} expanding triangle. The new low, 6360.25, supports the view that wave A{-6} had not yet completed on Friday.

The principal analysis remains in place: Wave A{-6} is underway, with the overnight rally representing a smaller-degree countertrend move within it. Under this view, one more downward leg—likely completing the internal structure of A{-6}—remains to be seen before a durable countertrend rally in wave B{-6} begins.

An alternate scenario is that A{-6} completed at 6360.25 and that the move to 6481.75 marked the beginning of wave B{-6}. However, confirmation of that interpretation would require sustained upside follow-through that is not yet evident.

Decision Points.

• Upside confirmation (B{-6} underway): A sustained move above 6485–6500, with pullbacks holding above roughly 6460, would indicate that A{-6} has completed and that a countertrend rally in B{-6} is in progress.
• Downside continuation (A{-6} still active): Failure below the 6480 area, followed by a break under 6420 and especially below 6360.25, would confirm that A{-6} remains incomplete and that another downward leg is unfolding.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p..m., 90-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• A{-6} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 30, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell further during the session, so far reaching into the 6410s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The revision of the wave count described in this morning’s analysis continues. Wave A{-6}, which began on January 27, continues its decline. The internal subwave structure is not clear; it lacks the definition needed for confident analysis at smaller degrees. Until that clarity develops, I will track the decline at the A{-6} level, the smallest degree that can be followed with reasonable confidence.

A completed wave A{-6} will be followed by a countertrend rally, rising wave B{-6}. There is as yet no clear evidence that such a turn has begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight and, so far on day 5 of the decline, have reached a low in the 6470s.

What does it mean? The decline has now moved below the prior A{-6} low, which by itself does not violate any Elliott Wave rule—B waves can, in some patterns, retrace beyond the start of A. However, the character of the move argues against labeling it as a B{-7} correction. Instead of showing a choppy, overlapping, three-wave structure typical of a corrective phase, the market has continued to press lower in a persistent, directional manner, with only brief and shallow pauses. That behavior is more consistent with an ongoing impulsive decline. On that basis, the preferred interpretation is that wave A{-6} is still unfolding, and that the expected B{-6} rebound has not yet begun.

Based on the nature of the wave structure, the map no longer matches the territory, and I have redrawn the map.

Decision points. The immediate focus is on whether the current decline continues or begins to stabilize. A break and hold below the overnight low in the 6470 area would signal that wave A{-6} is still extending downward, with lower levels likely to follow. On the upside, a sustained move back above 6525–6540 would be the first indication that selling pressure is easing. A rise above 6565 would strengthen the case that a short-term low is in place and that a corrective bounce, likely wave B{-7}, is underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p..m., 90-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• A{-6} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 27, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, reaching into the 6530s, the lowest levels of the day.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis remains unchanged from this morning. Declining wave B{-7} continues within rising wave B{-6} — that is, a downward smaller-degree wave within a larger upward correction.

The persistence of the decline suggests that wave B{-7} may not yet be complete.

Decision points: The key question for Friday morning will be whether the decline into the 6530s is nearing exhaustion or still has further to run. A sustained move below 6536, today’s low so far, would strengthen the case that declining wave B{-7} is still unfolding. Conversely, a rebound above 6575 would suggest the immediate selling pressure is easing. A stronger recovery through 6610–6625 would support the view that wave B{-7} has ended and that rising wave B{-6} is resuming.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures broke free from their narrow range overnight, falling from an early peak at 6647 down into the 6570s. The release of the Weekly Jobless Claims report an hour before the opening bell had little lasting impact on price.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis views the decline as a continuation of declining wave B{-7} within rising wave B{-6} within falling wave C{-5}. The entire structure remains part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

An alternative interpretation would label the present decline one degree lower, as wave B{-8} within wave B{-7}. At present, the evidence does not appear strong enough to support that possibility.

Decision points: The overnight break from the narrow range puts the focus squarely on 6574.25, the session low so far. A sustained move below 6574 would strengthen the case that declining wave B{-7} is still extending and could open the way toward the 6550–6525 zone next. Conversely, a recovery back above 6625 would suggest the decline is losing momentum and returning to triangle-style overlap. A push through 6647, the overnight high, would further weaken the bearish case and argue that the present move is only another internal subwave within the broader corrective structure rather than the start of a deeper directional leg.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/22/2026, 6483.50 (up}
• B{-7} (none), 3/23/2026, 6748 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 26, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fluctuate narrowly during the session, between a high of 6684.75 and a low of 6616.50.

Elliott Wave Theory. Unchanged from this morning. Downtrending wave B{-7} is underway within rising wave B{-6}.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures remained overnight within a narrow range, much as it had the day before. The price fluctuated between the 6630s and the 6680s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis is unchanged from Tuesday. Declining wave B{-7} is underway. It is a subwave of rising wave B{-6}, which is a subwave of falling wave C{-5}. Encompassing all is wave 4{-4}, a downward correction.

Decision points: A sustained rise above 6682 would strengthen the case that rising wave B{-6} is extending, opening the way toward a retest of the March 23 high near 6748. A break below 6634 would suggest that declining wave B{-7} is continuing, with lower levels in the 6610 area and possibly the mid-6500s coming into view.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/22/2026, 6483.50 (up}
• B{-7} (none), 3/23/2026, 6748 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 25, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures traded within a range during the session, reaching a low of 6573.50 and a high of about 6646. The contract continued to fluctuate between those levels into the afternoon.

Elliott Wave Theory: Falling wave B{-7} appears to be continuing. This wave is a subwave of rising wave B{-6}, which in turn is part of the larger decline in wave C{-5}. Together, these degrees form part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

The structure remains unresolved, suggesting that further sideways movement or additional subdivision may occur before the next directional move develops.

9:40 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell from the 6650s to the 6580s and then rose again into the 6650s, thereafter declining once more, back into the 6590s. The contract has remained well below Monday’s peak at 6748 and well above Monday’s low at 6483.50.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory applied to the decline that began on January 27 remains ambiguous. The issue is one of duration.

Under the theory, waves of the same degree tend to take roughly similar amounts of time to unfold. This is not an unbreakable rule, but rather a recurring tendency that often helps in judging degree.

The decline from January 27 appears to mark the start of wave C{-5} and its subwave A{-6}, which ended on March 22. The question is how to label the rise that followed.

One possibility is that the rise marked the start and completion of wave B{-6}. But that interpretation would imply that a {-6}-degree wave lasting nearly two months was followed by another wave of the same degree lasting only a single day — an inelegant proportion.

The labeling used here instead treats A{-6} as ending on March 22 and sees rising wave B{-6} as still underway. The sharp one-day advance is counted as subwave A{-7}, with wave B{-7} now in progress.

An alternative interpretation — and one that could still develop — is that wave A{-7} remains incomplete. Under that view, the one-day advance would be only wave A{-8}, and the subsequent decline would be wave B{-8}.

As always with Elliott Wave Theory, the structure will become clearer with time.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/22/2026, 6483.50 (up}
• B{-7} (none), 3/23/2026, 6748 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 24, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures peaked early in the session at 6748 and reversed, retracing back to 6615. At present it risen back in the 6660s

Elliott Wave Theory: The early rally appears to have completed subwave A{-7} of rising wave B{-6}. The subsequent pullback is likely subwave B{-7} within that same corrective rise. If this interpretation is correct, another upward push in subwave C{-7} would be expected before wave B{-6} itself reaches completion.Elliott Wave Theory: The movement would appear the declining B{-7} subwave within rising wave B{-6}.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reversed overnight, rising from 6483.50 into the 6740s.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory layout is as follows: Falling wave A{-6}, which began on January 27, 2026, from 7043, ended overnight, and rising wave B{-6} began. Both are subwaves of declining wave C{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, which, when complete, will have five subwaves.

In Elliott Wave terms, the expanding triangle now under discussion is the structure at degree {-5}, meaning its five legs are labeled A{-5}, B{-5}, C{-5}, D{-5} and E{-5}. Each of those legs is itself a corrective wave, and corrective waves usually break down into smaller internal subwaves at the next lower degree, here {-6}. That is why the current decline can be labeled A{-6} and the rebound B{-6} within the larger wave C{-5}: the {-5} degree defines the triangle itself, while the {-6} degree describes the internal structure of each triangle leg. In practical terms, the market is not yet in the final leg of the triangle. It is still moving through the internal subdivisions of wave C{-5}.

A caveat: Wave B{-6} appears to be underway, but a rapid reversal and a decline to a new low would mean that wave A{-6} has not yet ended and that wave B{-6} still lies ahead.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• B{-6} (none), 3/22/2026, 6481.50 (down}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 23, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, breaking below the previous low reached in the decline that began on January 27 from 7043.

Elliott Wave Theory. The move below the March 8 low indicates that the downward leg at the next lower degree remains incomplete. Falling wave A{-6} is therefore still underway, and the anticipated corrective rebound in rising wave B{-6} has not yet begun. The wave labeling has been revised to reflect this continued extension of the decline.

This interpretation remains consistent with the broader view that the market has been developing a large corrective pattern since late October 2025, likely wave 4{-4} taking the form of an expanding triangle. Under this framework, the ongoing weakness represents the continuation of wave C{-5} within that larger structure.

As always, the wave count will be refined as price action provides further confirmation.

Decision Points: Further decline below today’s session low would confirm that falling wave A{-6} is still extending and that the corrective rebound in wave B{-6} has not yet begun.

A recovery above the most recent internal swing high would be the first indication that wave A{-6} may be complete and that wave B{-6} is underway.

A sustained move that develops clear impulsive upward structure rather than overlapping swings would strengthen the case that the market is transitioning into the next corrective phase within the larger expanding-triangle framework.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight, so far reaching a low of 6607.75.

What does it mean? Recent price behavior has prompted an Elliott Wave Theory reassessment of the larger structure unfolding since late October 2025.

The market’s action during this period has been characterized by persistent overlap, widening price swings, and repeated failures of directional follow-through. These features are not typical of an advancing impulsive trend at the {-4} degree. Instead, they are more consistent with a large corrective phase.

Under the revised interpretation, the advance into October 29, 2025 is treated as the completion of wave 3{-4}. The movement since then is viewed as wave 4{-4}, likely developing as an expanding triangle. This pattern is consistent with the broadening volatility and unstable directional character that have dominated trading in recent months.

Within this structure, the decline into November 21, 2025 is labeled wave A{-5}, while the complex advance culminating on January 27, 2026 is labeled wave B{-5}. The market’s action since late January is treated as wave C{-5}, which remains in progress.

The initial phase of this decline appears to have ended on March 8 at 6584.50, marking the completion of wave A{-6}. Price behavior since that date is interpreted as the development of wave B{-6}, a corrective advance that may still be unfolding. The choppy, overlapping swings seen in recent sessions are consistent with the internal complexity typically associated with B-waves at this degree.

If this interpretation is correct, further sideways volatility or rally attempts remain possible before a final downward leg — wave C{-6} — completes the larger wave C{-5} decline. Such a sequence would remain consistent with the expanding triangle framework and would preserve proportionality across the wave hierarchy.

This revised structure better reflects the broadening nature of recent trading while allowing for continued sharp rallies and declines within the ongoing corrective phase. As always, the wave count will be refined as price action provides additional confirmation.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 4-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• C{-5} Micro, 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}
• A{-6} (none), 1/27/2026, 7043 (down}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 20, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com