3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose early in the session, remaining well below the overnight high, and then resumed the decline, reaching into the 7660s as the session progressed.

Elliott Wave Theory. The lower the price goes, the greater the clarity that falling wave E{-5} and its initial subwave A{-6} are underway.

Decision Points. A move below today’s low, presently 7669.25, would extend wave A{-6} and further strengthen the analysis. A rebound would be consistent with normal fluctuations within the developing decline and would not by itself alter the count. A move above the August 13 peak of 7838.50 would invalidate the present labeling of that peak as the end of waves C{-6} and D{-5} and require a reassessment.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to fall overnight, from 7746.50 shortly after yesterday’s session close to 7680.25 as today’s opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: Wave A{-6} within declining wave E{-5} continues. Both are contained within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, and that has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Wave E{-5} is the final subwave within the triangle.

The two lines at the top and bottom show the targets of waves within the triangle. Sometimes the price will hit the target, sometimes fall short, and sometimes break beyond it. The target of wave E{-5} is presently around the 6160s. Because this is an expanding triangle, the lower boundary moves lower and the upper boundary moves higher as trading proceeds.

Decision Points. A move below 7680.25 would extend wave A{-6} and strengthen the case that wave E{-5} is underway. A rise from current levels would not by itself alter the analysis; wave A{-6} can contain counter-trend moves as it develops. A move above the August 13 peak of 7838.50 would invalidate the present labeling of that peak as the end of waves C{-6} and D{-5} and require a reassessment.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on rising wave D{-5}, now ended, and falling wave E{-5}, borh parts of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has been underway since October 29, 2025.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 20, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching 7764.75, and then fell back into the 7720s before recovering into the 7730s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Falling waves E{-5} and A{-6} continue.

Decision Points. A move below 7698.25 would extend falling wave A{-6} and, with it, falling wave E{-5}. A rise above 7838.50, the August 13 peak where wave E{-5} began, would invalidate the present E{-5}/A{-6} analysis and require reconsideration of the labeling of the rise into that peak. Movement between those two levels would leave the present analysis unchanged.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight to 7698.25, and then began to rise, gently at first but later entering a rapid climb into the 7750s.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory analysis remains unchanged from yesterday. Falling wave E{-5} continues and is in its first subwave, falling wave A{-6}.

Wave E{-5} began on August 13 from 7838.50. This morning’s rapid rise hasn’t moved high enough to bring that analysis into question.

Decision Points. A move below 7698.25 would extend falling wave A{-6} and, with it, falling wave E{-5}. No further confirmation is required for the present analysis.

A rise above 7838.50, the August 13 peak where wave E{-5} began, would invalidate the present E{-5}/A{-6} analysis. Such a move would require reconsideration of the labeling of the rise into the August 13 peak and of the conclusion that wave D{-5} ended there.

Movement between those two levels would leave the present analysis unchanged.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on rising wave D{-5}, now ended, and falling wave E{-5}, borh parts of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has been underway since October 29, 2025.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 19, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures slowed the pace of their fall reaching a low of 7713.25 and then returning to the 7720s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Falling wave E{-5} continues. How low will it go?

Wave E{-5} is the final subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle. In the chart below I’ve taken a broader view of the waves in order to show both the presumed upper boundary and lower boundary.

Wave E{-5} is working through its initial subwave, falling wave A{-6}.

In theory, wave E{-5} should fall to the lower boundary, currently in the 6180s and moving lower every moment of every day. The boundaries were formed by connecting earlier highs and lows. Sometimes a wave will move beyond a boundary, as happened with wave D{-5}, the one that ended on August 13, when wave E{-5} began. On other occasions, a wave will fall short of the boundary.

If wave E{-5} follows the most common pattern, it will end in the vicinity of the lower boundary. It took a month for wave D{-5} to reach the upper boundary, and months to complete when it moved past the boundary, and it may well take a month for wave E{-5} to reach the lower boundary and months thereafter to reach completion.

As is so often the case in Elliott Wave Theory, there are few guarantees, only probabilities.

Decision Points. Falling wave E{-5} and its first subwave, A{-6}, remain underway. A move above 7838.50, the August 13 beginning point of E{-5}, would invalidate the present labeling and require a reassessment. On the downside, 6353.25, the March 30 end of wave C{-5}, is the first major structural marker. A decline below that level would fulfill the expectation that wave E{-5} extend beyond the preceding declining wave of the expanding triangle. The projected lower boundary, presently in the 6180s, provides a further target area but is a guideline rather than a requirement.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight, reaching into the 7710s as the opening bell approached

What does it mean? The price, labelled as rising wave E{-7}, fell below 7724.25, the point where that wave began on August 6. That breaks an iron-clad rule of Elliott Wave Theory: A wave cannot move beyond its own starting point and remain the same wave. The chart therefore requires a reassessment.

Wave E{-7} was labelled as the fifth and final subwave of rising wave C{-6}. Wave C{-6}, in turn, was the third and final subwave of rising wave D{-5}, the next-to-the-last subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

The analysis no longer matches the chart. The map no longer matches the lay of the land. When that happens, it is the map that must change.

The chart below has the revised labeling. (For the old labeling, see yesterday’s analysis.)

On the new map, wave E{-7} ended on August 13 at 7838.50. That also brought waves C{-6} and D{-5} to an end.

Falling wave E{-5} has begun and is working through its first subwave, wave A{-6}.

Wave E{-5} is the final subwave of the expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}. Under the expanding-triangle structure, it can be expected to move below the ending point of wave C{-5}, 6353.25 on March 30, and perhaps significantly lower.

When wave E{-5} is complete, the expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, will also be complete. Rising wave 5{-4} will then begin and would normally be expected to carry the price to new highs.

Decision Points. The break below 7724.25 invalidated the previous labeling and places falling wave E{-5} underway. The analysis remains valid while the price stays below 7838.50, the August 13 beginning point of E{-5}. A move above 7838.50 would invalidate the new labeling and require another reassessment. On the downside, a move below 6353.25 would satisfy the expanding triangle’s expectation that wave E{-5} travel beyond the end of the preceding declining wave, C{-5}.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on rising wave D{-5}, now ended, and falling wave E{-5}, borh parts of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has been underway since October 29, 2025.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 18, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to fall overnight and, as the session proceeded, have reached the 7770s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Wave C{-6} has reached a point of ambiguity. Its final wave, E{-7}, either ended on August 13 at 7838.50, bringing wave C{-6} and its parent wave D{-5} to a close and beginning wave E{-5}, the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began in October of last year and has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Or E{-7} remains underway and will eventually move above 7838.50, carrying C{-6} and D{-5} higher with it.

It will turn out to be one or the other, and there is no certainty as to which it will be.

Decision Points. A rise above 7838.50 would demonstrate that E{-7}, C{-6} and D{-5} remain underway. Continued movement below that level keeps alive the possibility that all three waves ended on August 13. A decline below 7724.25, the August 6 beginning of E{-7}, would provide much stronger evidence that they have ended and that falling wave E{-5} is underway.9:35 a..m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose gently after trading resumed overnight, until 6:25 a.m., when the price whipsawed, reaching 7824.50 and then beginning to fall, reaching below 7800..

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory leaves Friday’s analysis unchanged. Rising wave C{-6}, and with it parent wave D{-5}, may have ended at the August 13 high of 7838.50. If not, both waves are nearing their ends. C{-6} is the final wave within D{-5}, which began on March 30 and is the next-to-last subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, wherein each high exceeds the prior high and each low falls below the prior low.

Decision Points. A rise above 7838.50 would show that C{-6} and D{-5} remain underway and would place the August 13 peak in the rear-view mirror as merely another waypoint. Continued trading below 7838.50 keeps open the possibility that both waves ended there. A decline below 7724.25, the August 6 starting point of rising E{-7}, would provide much stronger evidence that E{-7}, C{-6} and D{-5} are complete and that falling E{-5} has begun.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave C{-6}, a subwave of rising wave D{-5}, which is part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has been underway since October 29, 2025.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)
• E{-7} Miniscule, 8/6/2026, 7724.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 17, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures remained below Thursday’s peak, 7838.50, throughout the session, dropping into the 7790s as the closing bell approached.

Elliott Wave Theory. Friday’s sustained decline strengthens the possibility that wave C{-6} and its parent, wave D{-5}, ended on August 13, and that falling wave E{-5} has begun.

That wave D{-5} reached a higher peak is a fact. Whether it will go higher, or whether it has ended and wave E{-5} is underway, has not been confirmed.

Decision Points. A move above Thursday’s 7838.50 peak would show that wave D{-5} remains underway and that its August 13 peak was not the end. Continued movement lower would strengthen the case that the peak ended waves E{-7}, C{-6} and D{-5}. A decline below the low of wave D{-7}, the starting point of the final E{-7} rise, would provide much stronger evidence that falling wave E{-5} has begun.

9:35 a..m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures remained below Thursday’s peak, 7838.50, reaching an overnight high of 7831.75 as the opening bell approached after falling as low as 7820. At the opening bell, the price dropped sharply into the 7810s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory interprets the chart as showing that rising wave C{-6} and its parent, rising wave D{-5}, are both underway. A push beyond Thursday’s peak would verify that interpretation. As long as the price remains below that peak, the possibility remains that Thursday’s peak marked the end of wave C{-6} and wave D{-5}.

The subwaves within the wave C{-6} rise, which began on July 29 from 7324, suggest that rising wave E{-7}, the fifth and final subwave of wave C{-6}, is underway.

When wave E{-7} reaches its end, so will wave C{-6} and wave D{-5}. A potentially months-long downward movement, wave E{-5}, will begin and is likely to fall below the beginning of wave D{-5}, 6353.25 on March 30. It could pull up short, or it could travel a significant distance below that level.

Decision Points. A move above Thursday’s 7838.50 peak would verify that rising wave E{-7}, and therefore waves C{-6} and D{-5}, remain underway. Remaining below 7838.50 would leave Thursday’s peak as a possible endpoint but would not, by itself, establish that the rise has ended. A decline below the low of wave D{-7}, the starting point of the present E{-7} rise, would provide much stronger evidence that 7838.50 ended waves E{-7}, C{-6} and D{-5}, and that falling wave E{-5} has begun.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the entire of the recent movements of wave D{-5} and it’s final subwave, wave C{-6}, both part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has been underway since October 29, 2025.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 14, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. NewYork time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 rose to a new peak today, 7838.50, eclipsing the prior peak set on August 5, 7820.25.

Elliott Wave Theory. The new peak, according to Elliott Wave Theory analysis, verifies that wave C{-6} and its parent wave D{-5} are both underway. Both are rising waves within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction.

Wave 4{-4}, which began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle, a somewhat uncommon form. It will at its completion have five subwaves. Today’s new high confirms that the final wave — declining wave E{-5} — lies in the future.

It is the nature of expanding triangles that each rising wave moves higher than the prior rising wave, and each falling wave moves lower than its predecessor. The blue lines on the chart connects the earlier waves to form upper and lower boundaries. As in life, Elliott Wave Theory boundaries are sometimes not honored, and such is the case with wave D{-5}, which broke above the boundary in April.

Likewise, waves sometimes come to an end before reaching the boundary. There’s no way to tell if the future wave E{-5} willl turn out to be a truncated wave.

Decision Points. A rise above today’s high, 7838.50, would show that wave C{-6} and wave D{-5} are continuing to extend. Today’s high is now the earliest possible candidate for the end of both waves and the beginning of falling wave E{-5}, but the chart has not yet produced a meaningful downside price level that would confirm such a turn.

9:35 a..m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose gently overnight, whipsawing briefly when the Producer Price Index was published an hour before the opening bell. The futures reached an overnight high of 7794, and then as the session began, dropped sharply to the 7780s.

What does it mean? The whipsaw was clearly the work of algorithms and ended essentially where it had begun, leaving Elliott Wave Theory’s analysis unchanged. Rising wave C{-6} is underway within rising wave D{-5}, both within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

That interpretation has not been verified. It remains possible that wave C{-6} ended on August 5, bringing wave D{-5} to an end and beginning falling wave E{-5}, the final subwave within wave 4{-4}.

Decision Points. A rise above the August 5 high, 7820.25, would eliminate the possibility that wave D{-5} ended there and would confirm that rising wave C{-6} remains underway. A decline below the post-August 5 low, 7738.75, would strengthen the alternative analysis that wave D{-5} has ended and falling wave E{-5} has begun, but would not by itself confirm that count.

The Chart. Today’s afternoon chart focuses on the entire of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has been underway since October of last year.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 13, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York tiime

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to fall immediately after the session opened, dropping from 7794 to 7763.95, and then returned — slowly — to the 7780s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The primary analysis remains unchanged. Rising wave C{-6} is still underway, along with its parent wave D{-5}. The alternative possibility that both waves ended on August 5 remains, but is unconfirmed.

Decision Points. A rise above the August 5 all-time high, 7820.25, would eliminate the alternative that wave D{-5} ended there and confirm that the rise has continued. A fall below Tuesday’s low, 7738.75, would strengthen the alternative analysis that wave D{-5} ended August 5 and falling wave E{-5} has begun. It would strengthen that analysis, not confirm it.

9:35 a..m. New York time

Inflation annluncement chart: The market response.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:01 a.m., 5-minute bars with volume]

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures responded with confusion when new inflation numbers were published an hour before the opening bell. The response took the form of a violent two-way movement within one minute that carried the price between 7788 and 7760.25 before settling well above the low but below the initial high. The word that came to my mind as I watched it unfold was “confusion.” The chart above shows the period surrounding the release, in close-up.

The price dropped sharply as the opening bell sounded, from 7794 to the 7770s so far.

What does it mean? Despite the drama, Elliott Wave Theory sees no significant change in the analysis. Rising wave C{-6} is still underway, along with its rising parent wave D{-5}. The possibility that those two waves ended on August 5 remains. Neither analysis is confirmed.

Decision Points. A rise above the August 5 all-time high, 7820.25, would eliminate the possibility that wave D{-5} ended there and confirm that the rise has continued beyond that point. On the downside, a fall below Tuesday’s low, 7738.75, would strengthen the alternative analysis that wave D{-5} ended August 5 and falling wave E{-5} has begun. It would strengthen that analysis, not confirm it.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the wave C{-6} and portion of wave D{-5} that came before.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 11, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to fall before the session began and picked up the pace as the opening bell sounded. From the overnight high, 7796, the price has so far fallen to 7738.75 and then risen into the 7740s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The fall has strengthened the analysis that sees rising wave D{-5} as having ended on August 5 and falling wave E{-5} as having begun. Strengthened, not confirmed. The Decision Points section describes the prices and decisions involved.

Decision Points. The first important level on the downside is 7724.25, the August 6 low. A break below that level would strengthen the case that the decline from the August 5 peak is more than an internal correction within rising C{-6}, but it would not by itself confirm that E{-5} is underway.

The decisive downside level is 7324, the July 29 starting point of rising C{-6}. A decline below 7324 would invalidate the present C{-6} structure and confirm that C{-6} and D{-5} have ended and falling E{-5} has begun.

On the upside, a move above the August 5 peak, 7820.25, would settle the question in the opposite direction: D{-5} would still be underway, with C{-6} continuing its rise.

Until one of those decisive levels is broken, the chart remains labeled for rising D{-5}, while the possibility that E{-5} has begun continues to gain weight.

9:35 a..m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures, as is often the case recently, reached their low early in overnight trading and then rose, reaching a high of 7796 as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Under Elliott Wave Theory, wave C{-6} is the final subwave of wave D{-5}, which began on March 30. Wave D{-5} is the next-to-the-last subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Internally, the structure within wave C{-6} lacks clarity to a certain extent. A C-wave such as this one will have five subwaves. The August 5 peak, 7820.25, can be counted as the end of wave C{-7} and the beginning of downward wave D{-7}. At one degree lower, however, the peak can be counted as the end of wave C{-8}, with downward wave D{-8} now underway. Either interpretation leaves wave C{-6} incomplete and additional upside ahead.

There is also a more bearish possibility: The five-wave structure of C{-6} may have been completed at the August 5 peak. In that scenario, C{-6} and D{-5} ended together, and falling wave E{-5} is underway.

The interpretation that leaves C{-6} incomplete seems to better match the relative size of the waves that came before, and that is what I have used on the chart. However, none of the possibilities has been verified. The central question remains: Is rising wave D{-5} still underway, or has falling wave E{-5} begun?

Decision Points. A sustained move above the August 5 peak, 7820.25, would confirm that wave C{-6}, and therefore D{-5}, remains underway. Continued weakness would increase the likelihood that D{-5} has ended, but the decline so far has not gone far enough to confirm that falling wave E{-5} has begun.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on rising wave C{-6} with 1-hour bars in order to better see the internal structure.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 11, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. From the start of the market session, the S&P 500 futures traveled from the 7770s to the 7790s, and then tumbled into the 7760s, a narrow range devoid of drama.

Elliott Wave Theory. Nor was there drama in the interpretation. As was the case this morning—and on more mornings than one cares to count since the expanding triangle began in late October 2025—the chart offered another dose of ambiguity. Rising wave D{-5} remains the favored interpretation.

This is where the careful analyst inserts the cautious warnings. It is possible that D{-5} ended at the August 5 peak and falling wave E{-5} began. Or perhaps not. Neither scenario has been verified.

Decision Points. A rise above the August 5 all-time high of 7820.25 would confirm that wave D{-5} remains underway. A decline below the August 6 low of 7724.25 would strengthen the case that D{-5} ended on August 5 and E{-5} has begun, although the decline could still prove to be a smaller-degree correction within D{-5}.

Between those levels, the market has provided no new evidence requiring a change in the analysis.

9:35 a..m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures have traded within a sideways range, below the August 5 all-time peak of 7820.25 and above the August 6 session low of 7724.25.

What does it mean? The August 5 peak, when Elliott Wave Theory is applied, strengthens the scenario that rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30, is still underway, while leaving open the possibility that the wave ended at last week’s peak and falling wave E{-5} has begun.

Wave E{-5}, if typical, will carry the price down into the 6170s and perhaps lower. It is also possible that the wave will end above that level.

Wherever wave E{-5} ends, that point will mark the end of the larger expanding triangle that has been the form of the S&P 500 since October 29, 2025. The triangle is falling wave 4{-4}, and it will be followed by a push to the upside, most likely moving above the endpoint of wave D{-5}.

Decision Points. A move above 7820.25 would show that wave D{-5} remains underway and that wave E{-5} has not yet begun. A break below 7724.25 would strengthen the alternative scenario that D{-5} ended on August 5 and E{-5} is underway, although the decline could still prove to be a smaller-degree correction within D{-5}.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the entirety of rising wave D{-5}, a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 10, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a session high of 7786.75, then fell to 7757.75. From there they rebounded into the 7770s before turning lower again. The session high remained below Wednesday’s all-time high of 7820.25.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave D{-5} is underway, within its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}. An alternative interpretation is that both C{-6} and D{-5} ended at the Aug. 5 peak of 7820.25 and that falling wave E{-5} has begun. The ambiguity remains because today’s rise stayed below 7820.25. A move above that level would eliminate the Aug. 5-ending alternative and show that D{-5} is still underway.

Decision Points. A rise above 7820.25 would show that wave C{-6}, and therefore wave D{-5}, remains underway. As long as the price remains below that level, the possibility remains that D{-5} ended there on Aug. 5 and that falling wave E{-5} has begun. On the downside, a break below today’s 7757.75 low would strengthen the immediate decline but would not by itself resolve the larger Elliott question. The more important structural level is 7324, the July 29 beginning of rising wave C{-6}; a decline below that level would rule out the present interpretation of C{-6} as still underway.

9:35 a..m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply for about 10 minutes after the Employment Situation Report was released, reaching 7778.25. The price then fell, so far to the 7750s. The report-triggered rise remained below the all-time high of 7820.25, set Wednesday in the rise that began on March 30.

The report’s findings were mixed, although the employment picture was weaker than the unemployment rate alone suggests. Unemployment fell by 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%, generally a bullish sign. Non-farm payroll employment fell by 23,000, and payroll gains for the prior two months were revised downward by a combined 103,000. As the chart shows, the market’s response covered relatively little ground.

What does it mean? March 30, in Elliott Wave Theory, is the day wave D{-5} began its rise, and it is still underway. It is in its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}, also underway. Wave D{-5} is the next-to-the-last subwave of the parent wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

When D{-5} is complete — it has been involved off and on with quite a bit of ambiguity — it will be followed by falling wave E{-5}, the final subwave of the 4th-wave correction. A characteristic of expanding triangles is that each succeeding subwave tends to have greater amplitude than the one before it. Wave D{-5} has met that tendency by exceeding the preceding rising wave. If the pattern continues normally, wave E{-5} will fall below the preceding declining wave, although it can fall short of that tendency.

Decision Points. The first upside test is the all-time high at 7820.25. A sustained move above that level would show that rising wave C{-6} remains in force and would extend wave D{-5}. Failure to reach or hold above that level would leave open the possibility that D{-5} is nearing completion. On the downside, this morning’s low at 7725.50 is the first useful near-term marker; a move below it would erase the employment-report advance and suggest that the correction within C{-6} is still underway. A much larger decline would raise the possibility that D{-5} ended at Wednesday’s high and that wave E{-5} has begun, but the chart does not yet provide evidence for making that call.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the entirety of rising wave D{-5}, a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025, has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 7, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com