3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a session high of 7485.75 and then retreated into the 7460s, remaining within the boundaries of Monday’s range.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis remains unchanged from this morning—and from many recent mornings. Rising wave D{-5} appears to remain underway. Alternatively, D{-5} may have ended through a truncation on July 16 at 7632, completing waves C{-7}, C{-6}, and D{-5}, with falling wave E{-5} beginning from that point. Neither scenario has been verified.

Decision Points. A break above 7485.75 would favor continued short-term strength, while a fall below 7417 would favor renewed weakness. Neither move would resolve the larger ambiguity. A sustained rise above the July 16 high of 7632 would weaken the truncation count, while a rise above the June 15 high of 7648.75 would strongly favor the conclusion that wave D{-5} remains underway. A decline below 7357.25 would invalidate the current rising C{-7} count and strongly favor the conclusion that wave E{-5} has begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures drifted lower after Monday’s closing bell, reaching 7419, and then rose to 7467 as Tuesday’s opening bell approached.

What does it mean? The movement provides little information for Elliott Wave Theory analysis. The ambiguity remains. Either rising wave D{-5} is continuing, or it ended through a truncation on July 16 at 7632, completing waves C{-7}, C{-6}, and D{-5}, and falling wave E{-5} began. Neither scenario has been verified.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above the July 16 high of 7632 would weaken the truncation scenario, while a rise above the June 15 high of 7648.75 would invalidate it. On the downside, a break below the overnight low of 7419 would indicate renewed short-term weakness, while a fall below 7357.25 would materially strengthen the case that wave E{-5} is underway, although it would not by itself confirm the larger count.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, the next-to-the last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 28, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell sharply during the session, passing through the range of the overnight opening gap to the upside and moving below Friday’s low.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline opens up the possibility that rising wave C{-7}, which began on June 26 from 7357.25, peaked on July 16 at 7632. If so, it is a small wave whose end would have large implications.

Wave C{-7} is the final subwave within rising wave C{-6}, which began on June 11 from 7232.25. And wave C{-6} is the final subwave within wave D{-5}, a rising wave within wave 4{-4}, a declining structure that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Wave D{-5} began on March 30 from 6353.25. If wave C{-7} has ended, then wave D{-5} has ended as well, and wave E{-5} is taking its first baby steps in a decline that would be expected to carry the price into the 6250s or lower, perhaps significantly so.

When wave E{-5} ends, it will also mark the completion of wave 4{-4}, which will be followed by a months-long rise in wave 5{-4}.

All of this from a tiny C wave biting the dust. One reason why I’m a fan of Elliott Wave Theory.

The end of wave C{-7} has yet to be verified, of course. The scenario described above is a possibility, not yet a certainty. If verified, however, its implications would be large. The precise timing, as always in Elliott Wave Theory, remains unknown.

Decision Points. A sustained break below Thursday’s 7411.75 low would strengthen the case that the decline from July 16 is not merely another correction within wave C{-7}. The decisive level is 7357.25, the June 26 origin of wave C{-7}. A move below it would verify that wave C{-7} has ended and, by extension, that wave C{-6} and wave D{-5} have ended as well, placing falling wave E{-5} underway.

On the upside, a recovery through the 7500 area and today’s 7524.75 high would weaken the immediate bearish case but would not settle the larger question. Only a rise above the July 16 peak at 7632 would eliminate that peak as the end of wave C{-7} and restore the prior rising-wave count.

The following close-up chart of the S&P 500 futures shows nine sessions and the overnight trading in between, illustrating the decline since the July 16 high. The longer-term chart, updated from this morning, is below.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:15 p.m., 15-minute bars with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures resumed trading Sunday evening with an upward opening gap of 60.50 points, having closed Friday at 7444 and opened at 7504.50. They thereafter traded sideways within a narrow range. Trading on both Friday and Sunday remained below Thursday’s 7549.50 high.

What does it mean? The gap provides modest support for the working Elliott Wave Theory count, but the absence of follow-through leaves the larger structure unresolved. Under the present count, rising wave C{-7} within rising wave C{-6} within rising wave D{-5} continues.

The structure is part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began in October 2025 and has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Such structures can require considerable time to reach completion.

When wave D{-5} ends, falling wave E{-5} will begin. The triangle’s boundaries—not always precisely honored—have continued to expand. At present, the lower boundary is near 6200, although its level will change with time. Wave E{-5} can be expected to move generally toward that boundary, but it could end above it, at it, or briefly below it. Its completion would also mark the end of wave 4{-4}.

Rising wave 5{-4} would then begin and would be expected eventually to carry the futures to new highs, potentially over a period of many months.

Decision Points. The first near-term test is Thursday’s 7549.50 high. A sustained break above it would strengthen the continuing C{-7} rise, while failure there followed by a return into Friday’s range would leave the market vulnerable to another downswing. The decisive bullish threshold remains the June 15 high at 7648.75. A break below the June 26 low at 7357.25 would seriously weaken the present rising-wave count.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, the next-to-the last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 27, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell to a session low of 7431.50, then rose to a session high of 7496.50 before reversing and falling back into the 7430s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The status of rising wave D{-5} remains uncertain. It may still be underway, or it may have ended at the June 15 high of 7648.75, with falling wave E{-5} beginning there. Price movement has not yet confirmed either interpretation.

Decision Points. A rise above 7496.50 would favor another short-term upward attempt but would not resolve the larger labeling. A fall below 7431.50 would strengthen the immediate bearish case. The broader ambiguity remains until the futures either exceed 7648.75, showing that wave D{-5} continued beyond June 15, or fall decisively below 7357.25, adding weight to the conclusion that wave E{-5} is underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight to 7433.75, then rose to 7469 before turning lower again.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the small overnight movement as doing little to clarify the broader pattern. Rising wave D{-5} may still be underway, or it may have ended at the June 15 high, 7648.75, with falling wave E{-5} beginning there. Waves D{-5} and E{-5} are subwaves of wave 4{-4}, an expanding-triangle correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above 7469 would favor continuation of the overnight rebound but would not resolve the larger labeling. A fall below 7433.75 would strengthen the immediate bearish case. The broader ambiguity remains until the price either rises above 7648.75, confirming that wave D{-5} continues, or falls decisively below 7357.25, increasing confidence that wave E{-5} is underway.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, the next-to-the last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 24, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall from the overnight high, reaching a session low of 7411.75 in mid-session. They then rebounded into the 7450s before turning lower again.

Elliott Wave Theory. The wave-identification quandary continues. Is rising wave D{-5} still underway, or has falling wave E{-5} begun? Today’s decline strengthens the wave E{-5} scenario, but neither possibility has yet been confirmed.

Decision Points. A sustained move below the June 26 low of 7357.25 would provide the first strong confirmation that wave E{-5} is underway. A decline below the June 11 low of 7233.25 would provide still stronger confirmation.

A rise above the overnight high of 7549.50 would ease the immediate downward pressure but would not resolve the larger ambiguity. A move above the June 15 peak of 7648.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} remains underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight from a high of 7549.50 into the 7440s. The decline accelerated in early trading and carried the price below last Friday’s low. The price began to rise as the opening bell sounded.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory, when applied, concludes that the decline strengthens the scenario that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and falling wave E{-5} is now underway. It strengthens that scenario but does not yet confirm it. The ambiguity of recent weeks continues.

If wave E{-5} is underway, then its parent wave, downward-correcting wave 4{-4}, is in its final subwave. Wave E{-5} would be expected to carry the price toward the lower boundary of the triangle—denoted by the lower blue line on the chart, presently in the 6200 area—and perhaps below it. The wave could instead end before reaching the boundary, a condition known in Elliott Wave Theory as truncation.

Wave 4{-4} will be followed by rising wave 5{-4}, which, if typical, will carry the price to new highs.

Decision Points.

A sustained move below the June 26 low of 7357.25 would invalidate the working interpretation that rising wave C{-7} began there and would provide the first strong confirmation that wave E{-5} is underway.

A move below the June 11 low of 7233.25 would provide still stronger confirmation of the bearish scenario.

A reversal above the overnight high of 7549.50 would ease the immediate downward pressure but would not resolve the larger ambiguity. A move above the June 15 peak of 7648.75 would invalidate the interpretation that wave E{-5} began there and confirm that wave D{-5} remains underway.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, the next-to-the last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 23, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time.

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose from the overnight low of 7504 and, as the session progressed, reached a session high of 7563.50. They then began to decline again.

Elliott Wave Theory. The ambiguity noted this morning remains unresolved. Rising wave D{-5} may have ended at the June 15 peak of 7648.75, with falling wave E{-5} beginning at that point. Alternatively, the decline from the June peak may be merely a corrective subwave within D{-5}’s continuing rise.

Decision Points. A rise above the session high of 7563.50 would resume the near-term advance but would not resolve the larger ambiguity. A decisive break above 7648.75 would confirm that rising wave D{-5} remains underway.

A fall below the overnight low of 7504 would resume the near-term decline. A break below the recent lows in the 7470s would strengthen the case that falling wave E{-5} has begun, while a decisive break below 7357.25 would make that interpretation substantially more likely.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight from an early high of 7547 to a low of 7504, then quickly rebounded into the 7530s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to offer two unresolved possibilities: Rising wave D{-5} remains underway, or it ended June 15 at 7648.75 and falling wave E{-5} has begun. Neither interpretation has been confirmed. The sideways movement since mid-June may continue until the price breaks decisively from the range.

Whichever wave is underway is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction taking the form of an expanding triangle that began October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. A rise above 7547 would erase the overnight decline but would not resolve the larger ambiguity. A decisive break above 7648.75 would confirm that rising wave D{-5} remains underway.

A fall below 7504 would resume the overnight decline, and a break below the recent lows in the 7470s would strengthen the near-term bearish case. A decisive break below 7357.25 would materially favor the conclusion that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, the next-to-the last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 22, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session to a high of 7554 and then pulled back slightly, remaining near the upper end of the day’s range.

Elliott Wave Theory. This morning’s analysis remains unchanged. Rising wave D{-5} remains the more likely interpretation, but it has not been confirmed. The alternative analysis holds that wave D{-5} ended at the June 15 peak, 7648.75, and declining wave E{-5} began from that point. That interpretation also remains unconfirmed.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above today’s high, 7554, would strengthen the interpretation that rising wave D{-5} remains underway and would open the way toward another test of 7648.75. A move above 7648.75 would eliminate the possibility that wave D{-5} ended on June 15.

A decline below today’s low in the 7500s would weaken the immediate rise. A break below the recent low at 7473 would strengthen the alternative interpretation that declining wave E{-5} has begun, while a fall below the June 26 low, 7357.25, would provide substantially stronger evidence.

Until price breaks decisively from the recent range, neither interpretation has been confirmed.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight to 7530.25 and then reversed, reaching a low so far of 7505.25. The futures remain within the relatively narrow range that has prevailed since June 26.

What does it mean? The narrowness of the movement makes it difficult for Elliott Wave Theory analysis to establish directionality. The small-degree wave now in progress is labeled rising wave C{-7}, a subwave of rising wave C{-6}, which in turn is a subwave of rising wave D{-5}. All are within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

The end of waves C{-7} and C{-6} would also mark the end of rising wave D{-5} and the beginning of declining wave E{-5}. Wave E{-5} is likely to carry the price toward the lower boundary of the expanding triangle, shown by the lower blue line, that forms wave 4{-4}.

The ambiguity lies in an alternative analysis that sees wave D{-5} as having ended at the June 15 peak, 7648.75, with wave E{-5} already having begun its downward journey. At this point, neither the continuation of wave D{-5} nor the beginning of wave E{-5} has been confirmed.

Decision Points. A rise above the overnight high, 7530.25, would keep the C{-7} analysis in play and open the way toward another test of the June 15 peak. A sustained move above 7648.75 would eliminate the possibility that wave D{-5} ended on June 15.

A break below the overnight low, 7505.25, followed by a fall beneath the recent lows in the 7470s, would strengthen the alternative view that declining wave E{-5} is underway. A move below the June 26 low, 7357.25, would provide substantially stronger evidence.

Until the futures break decisively from the recent range, the chart offers little directional advantage. The appropriate course is to wait for price confirmation rather than anticipate either outcome.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, the next-to-the last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 21, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching a high of 7552, and then fell into the 7470s as the closing bell approached.

Elliott Wave Theory. The movement did nothing to clarify the analysis. Rising wave D{-5} remains the more likely interpretation, but it is still possible that falling wave E{-5} began from the June 15 peak, 7648.75. Neither scenario has been verified.

Decision Points. A rise above the session high, 7552, would renew the advance and shift attention toward 7632 and the June 15 peak, 7648.75. A break above 7648.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} continued beyond June 15. A sustained decline below the 7480s would strengthen the immediate bearish case, while a break below 7357.25 would materially increase the likelihood that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight from 7482 to 7545.25, then pulled back into the 7520s.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory position remains unchanged. Rising wave D{-5} appears to be underway and in its final subwave, wave C{-6}. Since June 2, however, the price has remained within a relatively narrow range—from the 7230s to the 7640s—leaving a degree of uncertainty: Is wave D{-5} still underway, or did it end at the June 15 peak, with falling wave E{-5} beginning from that point?

For now, the wave D{-5} scenario appears more likely. But neither scenario has been verified.

The price has remained above the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle since April 30. Such a throw-over can occur under Elliott Wave Theory, but the duration of this one is unusual.

Decision Points. A rise above the overnight high, 7545.25, would continue the advance and shift attention toward 7632 and the June 15 peak, 7648.75. A break above 7648.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} continued beyond June 15. A decline below 7482 would erase the overnight rise. A move below 7357.25 would materially strengthen the case that falling wave E{-5} is underway, with a break below 7232.25 providing stronger evidence.

The Leading Economic Index at 10 a.m. New York time could produce brief volatility, but war-related developments—particularly those affecting Gulf shipping and oil prices—remain the larger source of unscheduled market risk.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken. It is the parent wave of rising wave D{-5} and falling wave E{-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 20, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p,m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell to 7473 early in the session, rebounded into the 7530s and then turned lower again.

Elliott Wave Theory. The session’s volatility remains insufficient to alter this morning’s analysis: The terminally nested rising waves C{-7}, C{-6} and D{-5} remain underway.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above the 7530s would support the present labeling. A decline below 7468.50 would invalidate the current C{-8} labeling and raise the possibility that the matched set has ended and falling wave E{-5} has begun. A further decline below 7357.25 would strengthen that interpretation.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined in a stair-step pattern overnight, interrupted by partial recoveries, and reached a low of 7482.50 at the opening bell. The low remains above the July 8 low at 7468.50 and well above the June 26 low at 7357.25.

What does it mean? The overnight decline is insufficient to overturn the working Elliott Wave interpretation that the terminally nested rising waves C{-8}, C{-7}, C{-6} and D{-5} remain underway. They form a matched set: When C{-8} ends, all four waves end at the same peak, and falling wave E{-5} begins.

Wave D{-5} is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and has taken the form of an expanding triangle. The price also remains far above the triangle’s upper boundary, presently in the vicinity of 7210. Falling wave E{-5} therefore has not been confirmed.

Decision Points. A renewed rise above the recent highs would support the conclusion that C{-8} remains underway. A break below 7468.50 would invalidate the present C{-8} labeling and raise the possibility that a higher-degree peak has been set. A further decline below 7357.25 would strengthen the case that D{-5} has ended, while a sustained break below the triangle boundary near 7210 would provide operational confirmation that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave that began on March 30 within a downward correction, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025. The blue line traces the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 17, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, reaching into the 7560s but remaining slightly above Tuesday’s low of 7571.75. The price movements remain small relative to the larger chart structure.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave D{-5}, now in its final subwave, C{-6}, continues. Within C{-6}, rising wave C{-7} is in its final subwave, C{-8}. Today’s decline is insufficient to show that any of those rising waves has ended.

The price remains below the June 15 peak of 7648.75, which marked the end of rising wave A{-7}, the first subwave within wave C{-6}.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would carry wave C{-8} above the June 15 peak and strengthen the case that the final advance within wave D{-5} remains underway.

A decline below Tuesday’s low of 7571.75 would extend the short-term downtrend but would not, by itself, show that wave C{-8} has ended. A sustained break below the B{-8} low at 7468.50 would require reconsideration of the lower-degree labeling and raise the possibility that wave C{-6}—and therefore wave D{-5}—has completed.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight to 7632, their highest level so far this week, and then reversed, falling to 7580.50 before recovering into the 7590s. The overnight low remains above Wednesday’s low.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave D{-5} continues and is in its final subwave, C{-6}. That wave, in turn, is in its final subwave, C{-7}, which is also in its final subwave, C{-8}.

Wave D{-5} is working through its closing stages. It is the next-to-the-last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

When wave D{-5} is complete, declining wave E{-5} will begin. It will be the final subwave of wave 4{-4} and will bring the correction into its closing stages.

Wave E{-5} will likely carry the price below the March 30 low of 6353.25, perhaps reaching the vicinity of 6200 or lower. When wave E{-5} and wave 4{-4} have ended, rising wave 5{-4} will begin and will likely carry the price to new highs.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would verify that wave D{-5} continued beyond the June 15 peak and strengthen the current C{-8} labeling.

A sustained decline below Wednesday’s low in the 7570s would weaken the immediate upward labeling and increase the plausibility that wave E{-5} is already underway. A break below the rising boundary of wave 4{-4}, now in the low 7200s, would provide much stronger operational confirmation.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave that began on March 30 within a downward correction, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025. The blue line traces the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 16, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures’ rise following the pre-session Producer Price Index report proved to be less a bullish response to softer inflation data than the first leg of a double whipsaw. After rising to 7626.25, the price reversed almost immediately and fell rapidly to 7571.75. It then reversed again and swiftly recovered into the 7610s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Despite the drama, the whipsaws covered relatively little territory. I find nothing in the movement sufficient to change this morning’s analysis: Rising wave D{-5} appears to remain underway.

Decision Points. A sustained move above today’s high of 7626.25 would restore the upward momentum interrupted by the whipsaw. A further rise above the June 15 high of 7648.75 would strengthen the present labeling and fulfill the minimum expectation for rising wave C{-8}.

A decline below today’s low of 7571.75 would show that the recovery is failing, but would not by itself establish that wave D{-5} has ended. A break below the wave B{-8} low of 7468.50 would invalidate the immediate C{-8} interpretation and reopen the possibility that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply as the opening bell approached following publication of the Producer Price Index report for June. The report showed softer producer inflation during the month preceding the resumption of heavy fighting in the U.S.-Iran War, although the 12-month inflation readings remained elevated.

What does it mean? In applying Elliott Wave Theory, I have moved the chart closer in to focus on the subwaves—and especially wave C{-6}—within rising wave D{-5}. Wave D{-5} is the next-to-the-last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Since the June 15 peak of 7648.75, the chart has been ambiguous. Did wave D{-5} end on June 15, allowing falling wave E{-5} to begin? Or was wave D{-5} still underway?

The subwaves visible in the closer view provide a greater degree of clarity.

Wave D{-5} appears to be in its third and final subwave, rising wave C{-6}. That wave, in turn, appears to be in its third and final subwave, rising wave C{-7}. At the lowest degree marked on the chart, rising wave C{-8} is underway and appears likely to exceed the June 15 high.

Such a move would fulfill the minimum expectation for the terminal rise. However, the ends of waves C{-8}, C{-7}, C{-6} and D{-5} would not be established until the rise subsequently reverses. That reversal would mark the beginning of falling wave E{-5}, which can be expected eventually to carry the price below the prior low of the expanding triangle.

A degree of ambiguity remains, as is normal when Elliott Wave Theory is applied. For me, however, this structure provides a substantially stronger argument that wave D{-5} remains underway and that wave E{-5} lies in the future.

Decision Points. A sustained move above the June 15 high of 7648.75 would strengthen the present labeling and confirm that rising wave C{-8} is extending. It would not, by itself, signal that wave D{-5} has ended. Evidence of completion would require a reversal from the new high.

A decline below the wave B{-8} low at 7468.50 before a new high would invalidate the immediate C{-8} interpretation and reopen the possibility that wave D{-5} has already ended. After a new high, a decline below that level would provide initial evidence that the terminal rise is complete. A further break below the wave B{-7} low at 7357.25 would provide substantially stronger evidence that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the subwaves of wave D{-5}, a rising wave that began on March 30 within a downward correction, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025. The blue line traces the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 15, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com