3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching into the 7810s. The advance followed a sharp overnight decline and recovery, continuing the upward correction within a larger downtrend.

Elliott Wave Theory. Rising wave B continues, a small subwave within a slightly larger falling wave A, itself embedded in a succession of increasingly larger A waves within falling wave E{-5}.

Wave E{-5} is the final wave within declining wave 4{-4}, an expanding triangle that began on October 29, 2025. The triangle’s preceding wave D{-5} ended on October 6 at 7897.50.

The present rise is corrective rather than a reversal of the larger decline. Wave B is expected to consist of three subwaves, followed by a falling wave C that will complete the immediate A-B-C structure.

Decision Points. The immediate question is how far wave B will rise before turning downward. The 7897.50 peak remains the principal reference point for the larger analysis.

A reversal below the recent low would strengthen the case that wave B has ended and the next downward movement has begun. Further gains would allow wave B to continue developing without changing the larger Elliott Wave Theory count.

A sustained rise above 7897.50 would invalidate the present placement of wave D{-5}’s endpoint and require reconsideration of whether wave E{-5} has begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight to 7757.00, then recovered much of the loss, rising to 7780.75 before fluctuating in the upper 7770s as the opening bell approached.

The recovery followed a period of sharp fluctuations that have characterized trading since the futures began their decline from the October 6 high of 7897.50.

The overnight movement has not established a new direction. Rather, it appears to be another stage in the downward correction that has dominated the market since the October 6 peak.

What Does It Mean? Elliott Wave Theory places the overnight recovery within a rising B wave, part of a downward correction buried deeply within falling wave E{-5}.

Wave E{-5} began at 7897.50 on October 6, following completion of rising wave D{-5}. It is the fifth and final subwave of wave 4{-4}, an expanding triangle that began on October 29, 2025.

The current downward correction is unfolding within the early stages of wave E{-5}. Its rising B wave is a temporary movement against the larger downward trend, rather than evidence that the decline has ended.

Under Elliott Wave Theory, a B wave within a corrective A-B-C structure is followed by a C wave moving in the direction of the larger correction. In the present case, that direction is downward.

The precise degree of the overnight movement remains uncertain. However, its position within the larger wave structure is consistent with the working analysis, and no change to that analysis is warranted.

Decision Points. The immediate upside reference is 7780.75, the overnight recovery high. A sustained rise above that level would suggest that the B wave remains underway and has further to travel.

The downside reference is 7757.00, the overnight low. A decline below that level would strengthen the interpretation that the recovery has ended and a new downward movement is underway.

Neither level, by itself, establishes a change in the larger Elliott Wave Theory count.

The broader expectation remains for falling wave E{-5} to continue, eventually completing the expanding triangle that has governed the market since October 2025.

The present recovery offers little evidence of a sustained upward trend. The next significant development would be completion of the B wave and the beginning of the anticipated falling C wave.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro 10/6/2026, 7897.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 21, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 7770s before retreating toward the 7740s. The advance followed Friday’s sharp decline, which carried the price into the 7670s, its lowest level since early October.

Elliott Wave Theory. The session’s rise is counted as a low-degree wave B within a falling wave A. Both waves are buried deeply within wave A{-6}, the first, probably large and long-lasting subwave of falling wave E{-5}.

Wave E{-5} is the final subwave of wave 4{-4}, the expanding triangle that began in October 2025. The triangle’s rising wave D{-5} ended October 6 at 7897.50, giving way to the present decline.

The current upward movement is corrective rather than the beginning of a new uptrend. Under the working count, wave B will eventually end, allowing the decline to resume in wave C at the same low degree.

The larger implication is that the market remains in the early stages of wave E{-5}. If the count is correct, the decline has considerably farther to travel before the expanding triangle is complete.

Decision Points.

The immediate question is whether the rising wave B has ended or has further to climb. The session’s advance into the 7770s provides a reference point, but the subsequent retreat does not by itself establish that wave B is complete.

A renewed rise above the session high would suggest that wave B remains underway. A decline below Friday’s low in the 7670s would indicate that the downward movement has resumed and would strengthen the case for the next falling wave.

The October 6 high of 7897.50 remains the principal invalidation level for the larger count. A rise above that level would require reconsideration of the conclusion that wave D{-5} has ended.

Until the smaller correction resolves, the Elliott wave count favors continued downward movement within wave E{-5}, although the timing and extent of the next decline remain uncertain.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s Happening Now?

Half an hour before the opening bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures were trading in the 7730s Monday morning, following a sharp decline on Friday that carried the price to 7676, the lowest level since the October 8 peak at 7897.50.

The price rebounded from Friday’s low, rising into the 7760s before turning downward again. The movement leaves the futures well below their October 8 peak but above Friday’s low.

The decline from October 8 remains the dominant movement on the two-hour chart, although substantial upward corrections have interrupted its progress.

What Does It Mean?

Elliott Wave Theory. The October 8 peak at 7897.50 marked the end of rising wave D{-5} and the beginning of declining wave E{-5}, the final wave within an expanding triangle that began forming on October 29, 2025.

An expanding triangle consists of five major waves, labeled A, B, C, D and E, with alternating downward and upward movements. Unlike a contracting triangle, its boundaries spread farther apart as the pattern develops. Each major wave contains three subdivisions, producing a complex sequence of advances and declines.

Wave E{-5} is the fifth and final wave of the triangle. It is expected to unfold in three major subdivisions: declining A{-6}, rising B{-6} and declining C{-6}.

At smaller degrees, the movements become more complex. Within ordinary corrective patterns, A waves can contain three or five subdivisions, B waves ordinarily contain three, and C waves generally contain five. These smaller structures combine to produce the larger movements visible on the chart.

The present decline is within A{-6}, the first subdivision of E{-5}.

Friday’s low at 7676 marked the completion of a declining A wave at a smaller, presently unidentified degree. A rising B-wave correction is now underway, although the rebound has already encountered renewed selling.

The degree of this smaller A-B sequence cannot yet be established reliably. Several additional degrees may separate the current movement from A{-6}. Further price development will be necessary before those intermediate waves can be identified.

The distinction matters. A rising B wave within a larger decline is a correction, not necessarily the beginning of a sustained advance. Once the B wave ends, a declining C wave would ordinarily follow at the same degree.

The duration of the larger movement is also uncertain. Wave D{-5} developed over months, and E{-5} could take a comparable amount of time. Elliott Wave Theory establishes the expected sequence of waves, not a dependable timetable for their completion.

The Chart

9:35 a.m. New York time

The two-hour chart begins near the October 8 peak and shows the early development of declining wave E{-5}.

The currently identified wave structure is:

• E{-5} — Falling. The final wave of the expanding triangle.
• A{-6} — Falling. The first of three major subdivisions within E{-5}.
• Wave B — Rising. A correction of the decline that ended October 16 at 7676. Its degree remains unidentified.

The October 16 low completed a wave A somewhere within the developing A{-6} structure. The intervening degrees have not yet been established.

As additional waves develop, their relationships may become clear enough to identify and label the missing degrees.

Until then, the chart provides the price history, while this section describes the Elliott Wave structure that the chart cannot presently display.

Decision Points

The October 16 low at 7676 is the immediate downside reference. A decline below that level would require reassessing whether the present B-wave correction has ended or whether the smaller wave structure needs revision.

On the upside, the rebound into the 7760s provides a nearby reference for the developing correction. A move above that area would support further recovery within the working B-wave count, without necessarily changing the larger bearish interpretation.

The October 8 peak at 7897.50 remains the principal reference for the beginning of E{-5}. A sustained rise beyond that peak would require reconsideration of the current triangle count.

The larger expectation remains for declining E{-5} to continue unfolding through its component waves. The timing and depth of that decline remain unknown.

For now, the appropriate approach is to follow the developing structure, identify the missing wave degrees as the evidence permits, and avoid treating a smaller upward correction as a reversal of the larger trend.

Waves now underway. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 19, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell sharply Friday, extending the decline that began after the October 8 peak at 7897.50. The price plunged into the 7690s, breaking below the October 1 low at 7711 and prompting a major revision of the Elliott Wave analysis.

The Elliott Wave count has changed. Rising wave D{-5}, which began March 30 at 7353.25, ended October 8 at 7897.50. Falling wave E{-5}, the final leg of the expanding triangle that has been underway since October 29, 2025, has begun.

The expanding triangle is the form taken by declining wave 4{-4}, a correction within the larger upward market structure. It consists of five legs, labeled A{-5} through E{-5}, with alternating downward and upward movements. Wave D{-5} was the fourth leg, rising toward the upper end of the pattern. Wave E{-5} is the fifth and final leg, moving downward.

Until Friday, our working count placed the market within the final upward subdivisions of D{-5}. Under that interpretation, the declines following October 8 were corrections within an unfinished rising impulse. Further upward movement would eventually have completed D{-5}.

That interpretation became increasingly difficult to reconcile with the price movement.

The October 8 peak at 7897.50 was followed by a series of declines and recoveries. The recoveries failed to establish a new high, while the declines carried progressively lower. Friday’s sharp fall below 7711, the October 1 low that had been labeled wave 4{-7} within the previous rising count, seriously undermined that structure.

The break below 7711 was not, by itself, a formal violation of an Elliott Wave rule. Its importance was structural: The magnitude and persistence of the decline, combined with the failure to establish a new high, no longer fit convincingly with the expectation that the market was completing the final stages of D{-5}.

The simpler interpretation is that the entire rise ended October 8 and that the subsequent decline belongs to a new wave of higher degree.

We have therefore moved the end of D{-5} to 7897.50 and identified the decline from that price as the opening movement of E{-5}.

The revision changes the significance of the current decline.

Under the previous count, the downward movement was a relatively small correction embedded within a larger rising wave. Its completion would have been followed by additional upward movement toward the end of D{-5}.

Under the revised count, the decline is part of E{-5}, a wave of substantially greater degree. Its role within the Elliott Wave structure is to complete the expanding triangle that began nearly a year ago.

An expanding triangle ordinarily consists of five corrective waves, each composed of three principal subdivisions. Wave E{-5} should therefore develop as a corrective decline rather than necessarily as a continuous five-wave impulse.

This distinction matters. A substantial upward recovery during E{-5} would not necessarily mean that the decline had ended. Such recoveries are normal within corrective structures, and we should expect the market to alternate between falling and rising movements as E{-5} develops.

The duration and eventual depth of E{-5} remain to be established. The triangle’s lower boundary will be an important reference as the wave progresses, but we do not yet have sufficient evidence to identify its final low.

The broader implication is that wave 4{-4} may be approaching its final stage. Under the Elliott Wave model, completion of the triangle would eventually be followed by rising wave 5{-4}, resuming the larger upward structure.

That prospective rise, however, belongs to the future. Our present analytical task is to follow the developing subdivisions of E{-5} and determine when the downward correction has completed its work.

Decision Points

The most important price in the revised analysis is 7897.50, the October 8 high.

As long as the market remains below that level, our working count identifies E{-5} as underway. Intermediate rallies can occur without changing that interpretation.

If /ES reverses direction and rises above 7897.50 before E{-5} is completed, however, the present identification of that high as the end of D{-5} will no longer be valid.

A new high would mean that the October 8 peak was not the end of D{-5} after all. We would need to reconsider whether D{-5} remained underway, with the present decline representing a corrective subdivision within its unfinished upward structure.

Such a development would not necessarily invalidate the expanding triangle itself. It would change our understanding of the fourth leg’s completion and postpone the beginning of the final declining leg.

There is an additional Elliott Wave consideration. In a conventional expanding triangle, wave E must remain consistent with the triangle’s required wave relationships and boundaries. The developing decline will therefore need to be evaluated against the full structure, not merely against the October 8 high.

For now, the evidence favors an E{-5} decline in progress.

The immediate task is to identify the smaller waves forming within that decline. Their turning points will provide the next evidence about the market’s direction, while 7897.50 remains the principal invalidation level for the new count.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching a high of 7714, and then took back part of the gain.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory, when applied, sees the rise as a small counter-trend movement within falling wave A{-6}, which in turn is a subwave of falling wave E{-5}. The structure is encompassed by wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Wave 4{-4} began on October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. A renewed decline below Monday’s low in the 7650s would strengthen the case that wave A{-6} is continuing downward. A rise above the overnight high of 7714 would extend the counter-trend movement but would not by itself alter the larger bearish count. A move above 7838.50, the August 13 peak, would invalidate the present placement of the start of wave E{-5}.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 25, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s Happening Now?

The S&P 500 futures moved sideways overnight, fluctuating between 7792.50 and 7809.50. The price was trading around 7805 as the opening bell approached.

The overnight movement provided no clear indication of the market’s next direction.

What Does It Mean?

Elliott Wave Theory. The working analysis remains unchanged. Rising wave D{-5}, the next-to-last wave within the expanding triangle that began in October 2025, remains underway.

At the smaller degree, the market is correcting within rising wave 1{-8}. The question is whether downward wave 2{-9} has completed its course or has another decline ahead.

The overnight trading did not resolve that question. The decline to 7792.50 offers a possible ending point for the correction, but the subsequent recovery has not established that the next upward wave is underway.

Decision Points

A sustained rise above the overnight high of 7809.50 would strengthen the case that the correction has ended and the next upward wave has begun.

A decline below 7792.50 would suggest that the correction remains underway.

Until the market provides clearer evidence, the appropriate course is to maintain the existing wave count and await a decisive movement.

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)
• 5{-7} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
• 1{-8} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 16, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures declined almost without interruption during the session, reaching a low of 7741.

The Elliott Wave Theory analysis remains unchanged from this morning. Rising wave D{-5} is underway. Working down through the degrees, from larger to smaller, the following waves are also underway: rising waves C{-6}, 5{-7}, and 1{-8}; and falling waves 2{-9} and C{-10}.

Bottom line: Once wave 2{-9} is complete, more upside lies ahead, with the usual corrections along the way.

Decision Points. But the chart also contains a warning: If wave 2{-9} falls below 7711—not far away—it will violate a rule of Elliott Wave Theory, requiring a reanalysis of the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York tim

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell sharply when the September inflation numbers were released, dropping from 7879.75 to 7843.25 in the first minute. The decline continued, reaching into the 7820s and returning the price to levels last seen on October 8.

The price of gasoline rose by 9.1% during September, bringing its unadjusted increase over the past year to 34.2%. Overall consumer prices rose by 0.6% for the month and 3.7% over the past year.

What does it mean? Despite the drama of the fall, its magnitude is insufficient to force a revision of the chart’s Elliott Wave Theory analysis. Rising wave D{-5} remains underway.

The decline is wave C{-10}, the final subwave of downward correction 2{-9}, four degrees below wave D{-5}.

When the correction is complete, rising wave 3{-9} is expected to begin, carrying the price above the October 6 high, 7897.50, which marked the end of wave 1{-9}.

Decision Points. The inflation report has produced a sharp decline, but no change in the Elliott Wave analysis. The immediate question is where wave 2{-9} will end.

A reversal would provide evidence that rising wave 3{-9} has begun, preserving the expectation of higher prices as wave D{-5} continues. Until that reversal becomes evident, the prudent course is to avoid new bullish positions.

A decline that violates the rules governing the present wave count would require a reassessment of the larger structure.

Chart. The chart shows the final subwave, wave C{-6} within rising wave D{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction. A recent chart showing wave 4{-4} in its entirety can be found here.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)
• 5{-7} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
• 1{-8} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 14, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a session low of 7834.50, continuing a decline that began overnight from 7864. The price subsequently recovered into the 7850s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline was part of falling wave C{-10} within wave 2{-9}, a downward correction buried four degrees deep within rising wave D{-5}, which has been underway since March 30 from 6353.25.

The entire structure is part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began October 29, 2025, and has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Wave D{-5} began at the triangle’s lower boundary, which continues to decline as time passes.

When wave D{-5} ends, falling wave E{-5} will begin, completing the five-wave triangle. Under the normal pattern, wave E{-5} would approach or exceed the lower boundary, presently in the 6090s and continuing to fall.

Elliott waves don’t always reach their anticipated destinations. Some fall short, a condition known as truncation. Others travel farther than expected, as wave D{-5} has done in moving above the triangle’s upper boundary.

Decision Points. A decline below the session low of 7834.50 would indicate that the downward correction remains underway. A sustained rise above the October 6 high of 7897.50 would signal renewed upward progress within wave D{-5}.

The more consequential turning point will come when wave D{-5} completes and declining wave E{-5} begins. That transition would substantially change the market outlook.

Wednesday’s inflation report, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. New York time, could provide the catalyst for a decisive move in either direction.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached an overnight high of 7862.25 and then declined to 7836. The price subsequently recovered, exceeding the earlier high to reach 7864, before turning downward again. So far, the net movement has been sideways.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees rising wave D{-5} as continuing, despite the lack of directional progress.

Internally, wave D{-5} is in its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}, which in turn is in its final subwave, rising wave 5{-7}.

At the next degree lower, we find an explanation for why wave D{-5} remains the working count.

Wave 5{-7} is in its initial subwave, rising wave 1{-8}, which is undergoing a downward correction, wave 2{-9}, that began October 6 from 7897.50.

The correction has developed into a series of smaller waves. One interpretation places the present decline in wave C{-10}, the final downward movement of the correction. Another places it within wave B{-10}, which would leave additional corrective movement ahead.

In either case, before wave D{-5} can end, wave 5{-7} must end. And before that can happen, wave 1{-8} must complete its remaining subwaves: rising wave 3{-9}, corrective wave 4{-9}, and a final rise in wave 5{-9}.

So yes, wave D{-5} is approaching its end. But it still has work to do. As Robert Frost wrote in his 1923 poem, Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening, the wave D{-5} persona might be muttering:

“The woods are lovely, dark and deep,
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.”

Decision Points. The October 6 high of 7897.50 remains the immediate upside reference point. A sustained rise above that level would indicate renewed upward progress within the larger wave structure. Meanwhile, the 7836 overnight low provides a near-term reference for judging whether the downward correction is continuing.

The working count remains rising wave D{-5}. Its eventual completion would open the way for declining wave E{-5}, the final wave of the expanding triangle that began in October 2025.

Chart. The chart shows the final subwave, wave C{-6} within rising wave D{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction. A recent chart showing wave 4{-4} in its entirety can be found here.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)
• 5{-7} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
• 1{-8} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 13, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to zigzag downward during the session, reaching into the 7840s as the closing bell approached. The price remained within Friday’s trading range.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis remains unchanged. Rising wave D{-5}, the next-to-last wave within the expanding triangle that began in October 2025, continues within its third and final subwave, rising wave C{-6}.

Decision Points. Unchanged from this morning. See below.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What sort of day? Today is an oddity in the stock market calendar. It is a federal holiday — Columbus Day — in the United States, with the bond markets, banks and Federal Reserve closed. And yet, the stock markets are open.

Trading volume tends to be lighter on such days, bid-ask spreads can widen, and volatility can become erratic. These conditions favor caution rather than aggressive trading.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened at 7873 when trading resumed Sunday evening. The price worked its way upward, with the usual zigzags, reaching a high of 7887 before reversing course and falling into the 7850s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave D{-5} continues within its third and final subwave, wave C{-6}.

The present decline fits within the second-wave correction underway at degree {-9}, itself part of rising wave 1{-8}. The correction has not invalidated the larger upward wave count.

Decision Points. The October 6 high of 7897.50 remains the principal upside reference. A rise above that level would establish a new high for the current advance and confirm that the upward movement continues.

The overnight low of 7857.75 provides an immediate downside reference. A decline below that level would extend the correction but would not, by itself, establish that wave D{-5} has ended.

The larger question remains whether rising wave D{-5} is approaching completion. A sustained reversal, supported by the developing Elliott wave structure, would shift attention toward falling wave E{-5}, the final subwave of the expanding triangle.

Chart. The chart shows the final subwave, wave C{-6} within rising wave D{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction. A recent chart showing wave 4{-4} in its entirety can be found here.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)
• 5{-7} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
• 1{-8} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 12, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures resumed their rise shortly after the opening bell, reaching into the 7870s as the session neared its end. The price remained a short distance below the October 6 peak of 7897.50.

Elliott Wave Theory. The present rise is wave B{-10} within wave 2{-9}, a second-wave downward correction. The preceding decline was wave A{-10}. A subsequent falling wave C{-10} would complete the correction.

All of this is happening within rising wave 1{-8}, which is three degrees below rising wave D{-5}, the fourth subwave of the expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}.

The immediate question is whether rising wave B{-10} has finished its course. If so, falling wave C{-10} would be next, eventually bringing wave 2{-9} to an end and allowing rising wave 3{-9} to begin.

Decision Points. The October 6 high of 7897.50 remains the principal upside reference. A move above it would require reassessment of the present corrective count, including whether wave B{-10} is forming an expanded flat or whether wave 2{-9} has already ended.

A reversal from below 7897.50, followed by a decline below the low of wave A{-10}, would strengthen the interpretation that falling wave C{-10} is underway.

Neither development would, by itself, establish that the much larger rising wave D{-5} has ended.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight from 7817 to 7853.75, remaining within the range covered the day before. The price subsequently retreated into the 7830s before recovering into the 7840s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees rising wave D{-5} as being in its third and final subwave, rising wave C{-6}.

Wave D{-5} is the fourth subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Wave C{-6} is in its fifth and final subwave, rising wave 5{-7}, an impulse wave that is itself in its initial subwave, rising wave 1{-8}.

Rising wave 1{-8} is in a second-wave downward correction, wave 2{-9}, and will have five subwaves in all when it is complete.

So when does wave D{-5} come to an end? That depends upon the degrees — the sizes — of the waves within it.

The chart shows four degrees below D{-5}. In reality, there are many smaller degrees, too small to be worth counting in this analysis.

When all the subwaves have completed their courses, wave D{-5} will end, and falling wave E{-5} will begin, eventually bringing wave 4{-4} to an end.

With the fourth-wave downward correction complete, Elliott Wave Theory anticipates rising wave 5{-4}, ultimately carrying the price to new highs.

Elliott Wave Theory is truly a complex dance of waves of many degrees.

Decision Points. The October 6 high of 7897.50 marks the end of wave 1{-9}. A rise above that level would indicate that wave 2{-9} has ended and the next upward phase is underway, requiring the smaller-degree count to be reassessed.

A decline below the starting point of wave 1{-9} would invalidate the present count of wave 2{-9}, since a second wave cannot retrace beyond the origin of its first wave. The October 1 low of 7711 remains a larger structural reference for wave 5{-7}.

The immediate question is whether wave 2{-9} has completed its correction, allowing the next upward wave to begin. The larger question remains when wave D{-5} will finish its final rise and give way to falling wave E{-5}.

Chart. The chart shows the final subwave, wave C{-6} within rising wave D{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction. A recent chart showing wave 4{-4} in its entirety can be found here.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)
• 5{-7} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
• 1{-8} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 9, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, reaching a low of 7783 before rebounding into the 7810s and then retreating again.

Elliott Wave Theory. This morning’s analysis remains unchanged. From the lowest degree to the highest, the present decline is wave 2{-9}, within rising wave 1{-8}, within rising wave 5{-7}, within rising wave C{-6}, within rising wave D{-5}, within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

When wave 2{-9} ends, rising wave 3{-9} will follow, then waves 4{-9} and 5{-9}, completing wave 1{-8}. Four additional waves at degree {-8} will follow, ending with rising wave 5{-8}. Its completion will simultaneously mark the ends of wave 5{-7}, wave C{-6} and wave D{-5}.

Falling wave E{-5}, the final subwave of the expanding triangle, will then begin.

Decision Points. A resumption of the advance would support the interpretation that wave 2{-9} is nearing completion. A move above 7897.50 would provide stronger evidence that the upward structure remains underway. A decline below 7711 would invalidate the present count of rising wave 5{-7} and require reassessment.

9:55 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell further during overnight trading, reaching 7802.75 before recovering some of the loss.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to indicate that rising wave D{-5} and its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}, are underway. But how far is wave C{-6} from completion? To explore that question, we turn to a close-up chart showing its internal structure.

These waves are part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began in October last year and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Unlike a typical zigzag correction, whose A and C waves usually contain five subwaves and whose B wave contains three, an expanding triangle has five major subwaves, labeled A through E, each subdividing into three waves.

Wave D{-5} is now in its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}. Because C{-6} is a motive wave, it subdivides into five waves, and the close-up chart places it in its fifth and final subwave, rising wave 5{-7}.

Within wave 5{-7}, rising wave 1{-8} is still underway. The present decline is provisionally labeled wave 2{-9}, a correction within that rising first wave.

Several steps remain before wave D{-5} can be declared complete. Wave 2{-9} must give way to rising wave 3{-9}, followed by waves 4{-9} and 5{-9}, completing wave 1{-8}. A correction in wave 2{-8} would then follow, before additional rising and corrective waves carry the structure through wave 5{-8}.

The completion of wave 5{-8} would also mark the end of wave 5{-7}, wave C{-6}, and wave D{-5}.

Falling wave E{-5} would then begin. If the expanding triangle develops as expected, wave E{-5} should carry prices toward the triangle’s lower boundary.

Its completion would also end the larger downward correction, wave 4{-4}, setting the stage for rising wave 5{-4}, which would typically be expected to carry prices to new highs.

The conclusion is that wave D{-5} is in its final stages, but several smaller waves remain before its completion can be verified.

Decision Points. The first question is whether the overnight decline remains a correction within rising wave 1{-8}. A resumption of the advance, followed by a move above 7897.50, would strengthen that interpretation.

A decline below 7711, the starting point of wave 5{-7}, would invalidate the present count and require reassessment.

The larger trading opportunity remains the anticipated decline in wave E{-5}. Its beginning has not been verified. Bearish positions would be considered only after the reversal provides sufficient confirmation.

Chart. The chart shows the final subwave, wave C{-6} within rising wave D{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction. A recent chart showing wave 4{-4} in its entirety can be found here.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)
• 5{-7} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
• 1{-8} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 8, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures barely budged after the minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting were released. The price had risen from the 7840s into the 7850s before the release and afterward remained in the upper part of that range, fluctuating sideways.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis remains unchanged from this morning. Rising wave D{-5} within wave 4{-4} continues and is in its final subwave, wave C{-6}.

Decision Points. The lack of a significant reaction to the FOMC minutes leaves the Elliott Wave count unchanged. A rise above Tuesday’s 7897.50 high would confirm that wave D{-5} is continuing to extend upward. A substantial decline that develops a clear impulsive structure would raise the possibility that wave D{-5} has ended and falling wave E{-5} has begun.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to fall overnight after reaching a peak Tuesday at 7897.50. The decline has so far reached into the 7830s. The price remains within Tuesday’s range, so the decline does not constitute a major reversal at this point.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory shows that rising wave D{-5} continues. It is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, meaning each rising wave travels higher than the one before it, while each falling wave travels lower. The structure gains clarity from boundary lines, shown in blue on the chart, connecting the extremes of the first two rising waves and the first two falling waves.

Decision Points. A rise above Tuesday’s 7897.50 high would confirm that wave D{-5} is continuing to extend upward. The overnight decline is not sufficient to signal that D{-5} has ended. A deeper decline that develops a clear impulsive structure would raise the possibility that wave D{-5} is complete and falling wave E{-5} has begun.

Chart. The chart shows the entirety of wave D{-5} within 4{-4}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
• C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 7, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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Based on work atwww.timbovee.com