The Week Ahead: GDP, durables, trade and more. Bonus: Yellen

 

Gross domestic product for the final quarter of 2016 gets a second look on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. New York time.

Other major economic reports that hit the Street during the week: Durable goods orders on Monday at 8:30 a.m., international trade in goods on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., and on Wednesday, personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. and the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey at 10 a.m.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen discusses the economic outlook in an appearance before the Executive Club of Chicago on Friday at 1 p.m. New York time.

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Monday’s Prospects

I have three prospective earnings plays for action on Monday: HTZ, QVCA and TGT.

I am also looking at three addition symbols that are sufficiently liquid but have implied volatility that is too low to meet my standards: EOG, IONS and OKE. I shall check them on Monday and if IV rises, I’ll add them to the prospects list.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 25, 2017

 

Friday’s Outcomes

I entered no new positions on Friday.

I exited two position to avoid ex-dividend dates on Monday: LMT and MCD.

JWN also goes ex-dividend on Monday. It is a new position, having published earnings only yesterday after the closing bell, and I am taking the chance of holding on to it, since I don’t yet have a good idea of what it’s going to do post-earnings.

My order to exit GM at my target price has not yet been filled. I shall leave it active and update Outcomes it the fill occurs.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 24, 2017

 

Friday’s Agenda

As in not uncommon for a Friday, I have no prospects to analyze and perhaps trade into today.

I exited MCD to avoid assignment. The stock goes ex-dividend on Monday and my options position is significantly out of the money, a perfect setup for seeing short shares dumped into my account. I shall update the analysis with results before the closing bell.

I am attempting to exit GM at my target price, but it has not yet been filled.

By Tim Bovee, Portland,Oregon, Feb. 24, 2017

 

Thursday’s Outcomes

I entered a position on JWN timed to coincide with an earnings announcement.

I placed an order to exit BP at my target price, but it has not yet been filled. If it should be filled by the closing bell, I shall update Outcomes this afternoon.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 23, 2017

 

JWN Analysis

Nordstrom Inc. (JWN)

JWN publishes earnings on Thursday after the closing bell.

I shall use the APR series of options, which trades for the last time 57 days hence, on April 21.

Implied volatility stands at 48%, which is 4.1 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.

JWN’s IV stands in the 72nd percentile of its annual range and the 71st percentile of its most recent broad movement.

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Thursday’s Prospects

Out of four possible prospects, only JWN has sufficiently high liquidity and implied volatility to warrant further analysis.

BIDU and COG have low implied volatility relative to both the annual range and the most recent broad movement. HPE has insufficient liquidity on its options grid.

I intend to analyze JWN on Thursday as a potential earnings play. I’ll monitor BIDU, COG and HPE and shall resurrect any that become viable during the day. Otherwise, they’re off my prospects list.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Feb. 22, 2017