11/17 – 3:15 p.m. New York time
Today’s outcomes: I exited a shares position on SPLK for a profit, having passed on entering a shares position on SBLK (see below for reasons why).
Shares trades in connection with earnings announcements for acton on Nov. 16: SPLK. (Another satisfactory prospect, GLOB, is not supported by my platform for these trades, Robinhood Markets Inc.)
SPLK beat the Street earnings estimate, causing shares to rise sharply before the opening bell.
Shares trades in connection with earnings announcements for acton on Nov. 15: WGL, HP, SFS and STNG. I exited all four positions the next day on Nov. 16, HP and STNG for a profit and SFS for a wash. WGL was a loss, but there was no earnings announcement. It was moved forward to Nov. 22 after the closing bell.
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO)
Update 11/16/2017: CSCO beat its earnings estimate of $0.60 by a penny, coming in at $0.61. Shares opened $1.93 higher after the announcement. With an opening gap that large, I exited and took the loss.
CSCO went into the announcement with a neutral rating from Zacks with a small expectation of an upside earnings surprise (0.29 on the earnings surprise predictor) and a beta of 1.15.
I shall report on the first-trading-day move after the closing bell.
Shares rose by 6.8% over my holding period of less than a full day, or a +2,484% annual rate. The options position produced a -35.1% loss on debit for a -12,824% annual rate.
CSCO publishes earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time nine days hence, on Nov. 24.
Implied volatility stands at 27%, which is 1.9 times the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
CSCO’s IV stands at the peak of its annual range and its most recent broad movement.
11/15 – 3:25 p.m. New York time
My electric power is back and I am once again fully operational. It feels very odd to be cut off from the markets on a trading day. Just saying.
In today’s outcomes, I entered an options position on CSCO and share positions on WGL, HP, SFS and STNG, and exited shares positions on AUPH and MTOR. The analyses of positions I exited have been updated with results.
Shares trades in connection with earnings announcements: AUPH and MTOR. I exited AUPH for a loss and MTOR for a profit.
The Home Depot Inc. (HD)
Update 11/14/2017: HD’s earnings did slightly better than analysts expected, coming in at $1.8354, compared to the forecast of $1.81. The price opened down $1.71 at the opening bell after the announcement. I exited for a loss.
The Zacks earnings surprise predictor algorithm, at 0.57, suggested that there would be an earnings surprise, in the context of a bullish score (2) and a beta of 1.08.
I shall update with relative post-earns movements after the closing bell.
Shares declined by 1.4% over my one-day holding period, or a -614% annual rate. The options position produced a -21.2% loss for a -7,718% annual rate.
HD publishes earnings on Tuesday before the opening bell.
I shall use options that trade for the last time 32 days hence, on Dec. 15.
Implied volatility stands at 22%, which is double the VIX, a measure of the volatility of the S&P 500 index.
HD’s IV stands in the 71st percentile of its annual range and the 86th percentile of its most recent broad movement.
11/13 – 2:55 p.m. New York time
HD analysis posted.
11/13 – 2:40 p.m. New York time
I have updated JD with results.
11/13 – 9:50 a.m. New York time
I have exited JD for a profit and shall update the analysis with results later in the day/
HD’s earnings surprise score remains a bit lower than I like, but high enough to trade using options if I’m of a mind. The bid/ask spread on a directional bull trade is sufficiently low to meet my standards. The non-directional spread is overly high and so is off the table unless it improves.
None of the potential earnings plays using shares — DKS, ICON, MTSC, NCSM, SBBP, SSYS and VRS — meets my standards, on two grounds: I require that the Zacks score be neutral or bullish (3 or greater) and that the earnings surprise predictor be positive (>0). Only HD meets that standard, and since it qualifies for an options trade, its off the table for shares.
i anticipate no new data from Zacks prior to the closing bell, so the shares prospects are off the table.