XLE Analysis

The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)

I have entered a short iron condor spread on XLE, using options that trade for the last time 43 days hence, on February 21. The premium is a $0.40 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $59.43.

The profit zone for this position is between $62.40 on the upside and $55.40 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 31.7%.

Premium: $0.40 Expire OTM
XLE-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 63.21 87.0% 14
Break-even 62.40 83.0% 18.5
Short 62.00 79.0% 23
Puts
Short 56.21 77.0% 21
Break-even 55.40 81.0% 17.5
Long 55.00 85.0% 14

The premium is 33.1% of the width of the position’s wings.

The profit zone covers a 5.0% move to the upside and a 7.3% move to the downside of the entry price, for total coverage of 12.3%

The risk/reward ratio is 2.0:1, with maximum risk of $81 and maximum reward of $40 per contract.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 9, 2020

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Live: Thursday, January 9, 2020

11:35 a.m. New York time

Here are today’s stock trades:

  • Value Portfolio
    • Entries
      • MET, for a $52.53 debit
      • SIG, for an $18.84 debit
  • Growth Portfolio
    • Exits
      • AMED, for a  $173.74 credit, up $6.26 from entry, producing a 4.7% return over two days, or a +682% annual rate.
      • TX, a $22.02 credit, a gain of 8 cents from the price at entry. The return is 0.4% over one day for a +133% annual rate.
    • Entries
      • FN, for a $66.00 debit
      • MHO, a $42.83 debit
  • Momentum Portfolio
    • Exits
      • ENPH, for a $31.74 credit, up $2.91 from the entry level, producing a 10.1% return over two days for a +1,839% annual rate.
      • PERI, an $8.41 credit, up 22 cents from entry, showing a return of 2.6% over one day for a +960% annual rate.
  • Bench Portfolio
    • Transferred in from
      • Growth: CNXM
      • Momentum: DQ, PFGC, TALO and TNK

11:05 a.m. New York time

Stocks. As noted below, I’m discontinuing the Momentum Portfolio as a primary vehicle. I’ll retain it as a secondary, meaning if a symbol is dropped from one of the other portfolios but appears on the Momentum screen, I’ll retain it until it disappears from that screen as well. And, if it has disappeared from all screens but still has a “strong buy” score from Zacks, I’ll hang onto it in the Bench Portfolio.

Meanwhile, I’m building out the Value Portfolio as a new primary vehicle, which I expect to be fairly stable. By Value I mean stocks who appear to be worth less than they should be according to their financial metrics.

Today I exited two positions from Growth and Momentum, respectively, added two each to Value and Growth, transferred four from Momentum to the bench, and ignored five additions to Momentum. Details to come.

10 a.m. New York time

In stocks, today’s Momentum Portfolio changes using the Zacks algorithm continues to churn — 10 exit signals, most of which were entry signals within the last couple of days.

I am declaring the Momentum Portfolio to be a failure, won’t be replacing today’s exits and will retire the portfolio as soon as the positions that remain have received their exit signals.

9:45 a.m. New York time

I’ve entered a short iron condor position on XLE and posted the analysis.

9:35 a.m. New York time

The implied volatility rank on XLE, the energy exchange-traded fund remains above 30% and the uncertainty in the Middle East appears to have lessened. I’ll be analyzing XLE for a short iron condor position this morning.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 9, 2020

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XLK Analysis

Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK)

I have entered a short iron condor spread on XLK, using options that trade for the last time 44 days hence, on February 21. The premium is a $0.79 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $92.66.

The profit zone for this position is between $96.79 on the upside and $85.79 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 55.3.

Premium: $0.79 Expire OTM
XLK-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 98.00 89.0% 12
Break-even 96.79 83.0% 18.5
Short 96.00 77.0% 25
Puts
Short 88.00 76.0% 22
Break-even 85.79 81.0% 17.5
Long 85.00 86.0% 13

The premium is 31.6% of the width of the position’s wings.

The profit zone covers a 4.4% move to the upside and an 8.1% move to the downside of the entry price, for total coverage of 12.5%

The risk/reward ratio is 2.2:1, with maximum risk of $171 and maximum reward of $79 per contract.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 8, 2020

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Live: Wednesday, January 8, 2020

3:10 p.m. New York time

Today’s stock trades.

  • Growth Portfolio
    • Exits
      • BYD, for a $29.78 credit, up 51 cents from the entry price, producing a 1.7% return over two days for a +318% annual rate.
    • Entries
      • ITRI, for a $83.33 debit
      • LPLA, a $96.16 debit
      • TX, a 21.94 debit
    • Transferred to the Bench: HII
  • Momentum Portfolio
    • Entries
      • CS, for a $13.93 debit
      • PERI, an $8.19 debit
      • SNE, a $70.60 debit
      • TGNA, a $17.04 debit
    • Transferred
      • From the Bench: DQ
      • FORM, duplicating the Growth Portfolio position.
  • Genetics Portfolio
    • Exits
      • CLLS, for a $16.78 credit, up 4 cents from entry. The return was 0.3% over one day for a +90% annual rate.
  • Bench Portfolio
    • Exits
      • STM, for a 27.31 credit, up 58 cents from original entry in the Growth Portfolio, producing a 2.2% return over 2 days for a +398% annual rate.

9:45 a.m. New York time

XLK Analysis posted.

9:35 a.m. New York time

The exchange traded fund XLK moved to a high implied volatility rank this monring, and I’ve entered a short iron condor position. Analysis to come.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 8, 2020

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EEM Analysis

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets exchange traded fund (EEM)

I have entered a short iron condor spread on EEM, using options that trade for the last time 45 days hence, on February 21. The premium is a $0.30 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $48.83

The profit zone for this position is between $47.03 on the upside and $42.03 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 27.6.

Premium: $0.30 Expire OTM
EEM-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 47.73 90.0% 10
Break-even 47.03 84.5% 15.5
Short 46.73 79.0% 21
Puts
Short 43.00 76.0% 23
Break-even 42.03 81.0% 18
Long 41.73 86.0% 13

The premium is 26.4% of the width of the position’s wings.

The profit zone covers a 4.9% move to the upside and a 6.7% move to the downside of the entry price, for total coverage of 11.6%

The risk/reward ratio is 2.8:1, with maximum risk of $83.50 and maximum reward of $30.00 per contract.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 7, 2020

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XLI Analysis

The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund  (XLI)

I have entered a short iron condor spread on XLI, using options that trade for the last time 45 days hence, on February 21. The premium is a $0.46 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $82.67

The profit zone for this position is between $86.46 on the upside and $77.46 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 31.1.

Premium: $0.46 Expire OTM
XLI-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 87.00 88.0% 12
Break-even 86.46 84.5% 15.5
Short 86.00 81.0% 19
Puts
Short 79.00 78.0% 22
Break-even 77.46 83.5% 16.5
Long 77.00 89.0% 11

The premium is 30.7% of the width of the position’s wings.

The profit zone covers a 4.6% move to the upside and a 6.7% move to the downside of the entry price, for total coverage of 11.3%

The risk/reward ratio is 2.3:1, with maximum risk of $104 and maximum reward of $46 per contract.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 7, 2020

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XBI Analysis

SPDR S&P Biotech exchange traded fund (XBI)

I have entered a short iron condor spread on XBI, using options that trade for the last time 45 days hence, on February 21. The premium is a $1.06 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $94.09.

The profit zone for this position is between $102.06 on the upside and $84.06 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 32.0%.

Premium: $1.06 Expire OTM
XBI-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 104.00 90.0% 12
Break-even 102.06 85.5% 16.5
Short 101.00 81.0% 21
Puts
Short 87.00 77.0% 21
Break-even 84.06 82.0% 16
Long 83.00 87.0% 11

The premium is 30.3% of the width of the position’s wings.

The profit zone covers an 8.5% move to the upside and an 11.9% move to the downside of the entry price, for total coverage of 20.4%

The risk/reward ratio is 2.31, with maximum risk of $244 and maximum reward of $106 per contract.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 7, 2020

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XLV Analysis

The Health Care Select Sector SPR Fund (XLV)

I have entered a short iron condor spread on XLV, using options that trade for the last time 45 days hence, on February 21. The premium is a $0.67 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $101.54

The profit zone for this position is between $105.67 on the upside and $95.00 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 32.3%.

Premium: $0.67 Expire OTM
XLV-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 106.33 87.0% 13
Break-even 105.67 82.0% 17.5
Short 105.00 77.0% 22
Puts
Short 97.33 77.0% 23
Break-even 95.00 82.0% 18
Long 94.33 87.0% 13

The premium is 30.9% of the width of the position’s wings.

The profit zone covers a 4.1% move to the upside and a 6.9% move to the downside of the entry price, for total coverage of 11.0%

The risk/reward ratio is 2.2:1, with maximum risk of $149 and maximum reward of $67 per contract.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 7, 2020

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TLT Analysis

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

I have entered a short iron condor spread on TLT, using options that trade for the last time 45 days hence, on February 21. The premium is a $0.78 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $138.08.

The profit zone for this position is between $143.78 on the upside and $131.78 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 36.7%.

Premium: $0.78 Expire OTM
TLT-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 146.00 89.0% 11
Break-even 143.78 83.5% 16
Short 143.00 78.0% 21
Puts
Short 134.00 79.0% 23
Break-even 131.78 84.5% 16.5
Long 131.00 90.0% 10

The premium is 26.0% of the width of the position’s wings.

The profit zone covers a 4.1% move to the upside and a 4.9% move to the downside of the entry price, for total coverage of 8.9%

The risk/reward ratio is 2.8:1, with maximum risk of $222 and maximum reward of $78 per contract.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 7, 2020

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GLD Analysis

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

Update 1/22/2020: GLD reached its management goal — half of maximum potential profit (49.5%) — and I exited for a $0.49 debit per share, leaving $48 profit for each 100-share contract. The stock was priced at $146.50 at exit, down $1.30 from the entry level.

GLD fell slightly on the third day of the position, and then traced a sideways pattern within a narrow range. The implied volatility rank fell during the hold period by 27.1 points, to 18.8%

Shares declined by 0.9% over 15 days, or a -21% annual rate. The options position rose by 98.0% for a +2,384% annual rate.


I have entered a short iron condor spread on GLD, using options that trade for the last time 45 days hence, on February 21. The premium is a $0.97 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $147.80.

The profit zone for this position is between $154.97 on the upside and $142.97 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 45.9%.

Premium: $0.97 Expire OTM
GLD-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 159.00 89.0% 12
Break-even 154.97 83.0% 18
Short 154.00 77.0% 24
Puts
Short 144.00 78.0% 24
Break-even 142.97 82.5% 19
Long 142.00 87.0% 14

The premium is 27.7% of the width of the position’s wings.

The profit zone covers a 4.9% move to the upside and a 3.4% move to the downside of the entry price, for total coverage of 8.2%

The risk/reward ratio is 2.6:1, with maximum risk of $253 and maximum reward of $97 per contract.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 7, 2020

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