Live: Friday, April 5, 2019

2 p.m. New York time

My entry order for an iron condor on DIS was filled, for a $1 premium, own a penny from my original order. Full analysis coming up.

1:30 p.m. New York time

I returned to EA, which I had looked at on Tuesday, and found improvements on the options grid that allowed for a trade that meets my preferences.

I have entered a short iron condor position on EA, c+125 c-115 p-95 p+75, premium @1.60 IVR 53. Full analysis to follow.

12:25 p.m. New York time

I attempted to build trades for ASHR (IVR 51) and X (IVR 33), but both had insufficient premium to make the trades worthwhile. If I can manage DIS today, then I’ll take the trade. Otherwise, I don’t see anything else new on today’s horizon.

12:10 p.m. New York time

The attempted DIS position is the same as yesterday’s, with a slightly lower premium and higher IVR : c+135 c-125 p-105 p+95 @+1.01 premium, IVR 40.

12:05 p.m. New York time

I’ll be taking another look at DIS today, which failed to get a fill yesterday when tried to enter an iron condor position. I’ll also be searching out opportunities.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 5, 2019

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XRT Analysis

SPDR S&P Retail (XRT)

Update 4/4/2019: I exited XRT for a debit of $0.27, or 51% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by 1.5% (-$0.69) over 30 days, or a -18% annual rate. The options position yielded 103.7% (+$0.28) for a +1,262% annual rate.


On March 5 I entered a short iron condor spread on XRT, using options that trade for the last time 73 days later, on May 17. The premium is a $0.55 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $45.82.

The profit zone for this position is between $49.55 on the upside and $39.55 on the downside.

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Live: Thursday, April 4, 2019

4:30 p.m. New York time

No fill on DIS.

11:20 a.m. New York time

Attempting entry into an iron condor on DIS: c+135 c-125 p-105 p+95 @+1.03 premium IVR 38.

10:00 a.m. New York time

I’ve exited my short iron condor on XRT at 51% of maximum potential profit. Analysis to come.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 4, 2019

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CELG Analysis

Celgene Corp (CELG)

Exit 4/3/2019: I exited CELG on May 3 at 50% of maximum potential profit, for a $0.59 debit.

Shares rose by 4.6% over eight days, or a 210% annual rate. The options position produced a 101.7% yield for a +4,640% annual rate


I entered a short iron condor spread on CELG on March 26, using options that trade for the last time 52 days hence, on May 17. The premium is a $1.19 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $89.34

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Live: Wednesday, April 3, 2019

2:25 p.m. New York time

My exit order on CELG was filled, at a $0.59 debit. Full writeup to come.

10:30 a.m. New York time

I’m attempting to exit two positions today, both of them short iron condors expiring May 17.

CELG, c+105 c-97.5 p-75 p+70, call delta 20 (82%) put delta 15 (91%), IVR 62, RR 4.3:1, entered 3/26/2019 credit $1.19. I’m attempting to exit for a $0.59 debit, which is 50% of maximum potential profit.

XRT,  c+52 c-49 p-42 p+39, call delta 18 (82%) put delta 18 (80%), IVR 37%, RR 4.5:1, entered 3/5/2019 credit $0.55. I’m attempting to exit for a $0.27 debit, which is 51% of maximum potential profit.

Layout and abbreviations: symbol, long_call short_call short_put long_put, short call delta (chance of expiring out of the money), short put delta (chance of expiring out of the money), IV Rank (IVR) at entry, risk/reward ratio (RR), date of entry, amount of credit at entry.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 3, 2019

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Live: Tuesday, April 2, 2019

10:50 a.m. New York time

XRT moved to 45.5% of maximum potential profit ($0.30 debit to exit the iron condor). Nonetheless, I have entered an exit order, at $0.27, which is 51% of max.

I said yesterday that I would be looking at EA today. It’s not a bad trade, but the reduction in my account’s buying power is greater than I like, so I shall pass for now.

Here’s the analysis:

EA has an implied volatility rank of 48%, with shares at $101.89.

Premium: $1.32 Expire OTM
EA-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 130.00 96.0% 5
Break-even 121.32 92.0% 9.5
Short 120.00 88.0% 14
Puts
Short 85.00 86.0% 11
Break-even 76.32 90.5% 7
Long 75.00 95.0% 3

The proposed position covers 13.2% of premium with a risk/reward ratio of $868/$132, or 6.6:1.

4:30 p.m. New York time

The closing bell came with no fill on my XRT exit order.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 2, 2019

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Live: Monday, April 1, 2019

One position, which was omitted from my catch-up list of live positions, hit 50% of maximum potential profit today. However, the price spread was such that I wasn’t able to get a fill at that price.

The position is an iron condor and was entered on March 5.

XRT, c+52 c-49 p-42 p+39, call delta 18 (82%) put delta 18 (80%), IVR 37%, RR 4.5:1, 3/5/2019, $0.55

The exit target price was $0.27 credit. Under my rules, I must exit by April 26.

Tomorrow I’ll be looking at entering EWZ as an iron condor.

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Current positions

Here are my current positions, all of them iron condors expiring May 17. I’ll abbreviate as follows: symbol, long_call short_call short_put long_put, short call delta (chance of expiring out of the money), short put delta (chance of expiring out of the money), IV Rank (IVR), risk/reward ratio (RR), date of entry, amount of credit at entry

  • CGC, c+60 c-55 p-35 p+32.5, call delta 23 (82%) put delta 17 (76%), IVR 47, RR 2.6:1, 3/19, $0.45
  • GDXJ, c+39 c-36 p-30 c+27, call delta 19 (83%) put delta 5 (94%), IVR 34%, RR 3.8:1, 3/15, $0.62
  • STNE, c+55 c-50 p-33 p-28, call delta 22 (84%) put delta 19 (74%), IVR 70%, RR 2.8:1, 3/20, $1.31

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 30, 2019

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.