8:40 p.m. New York time

I have updated the analyses for today’s three exits, AMD, MU and NKE, with the final results.

3:50 p.m. New York time

I got sidetracked and so have not yet updated AMD, MU and NKE with results. Tonight, for sure, U.S. Pacific time (GMT-7).

12:20 p.m. New York time

I have entered an earnings on play on LEN, structured as a short iron fly.

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Today’s Book

Soft Currency Economics II, by Warren Mosler

Mosler lays to rest the terrors that traditional economists experience when they think about deficit spending. “Inflation!”, they cry in horror. In this brief book Mosler digs into realities of our soft-money world and concludes that deficit spending, far from being a horror show, is the best tool around to put an end to devastating recessions, without a risk of inflation. I found it to be a fascinating read with a counterintuitive view of the nature of money..

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11 a.m. New York time

Another busy start for the day. I exited AMD, MU and NKE, each for a profit. I shall update their analyses with results later today.

I shall next turn to assessing LEN as a potential earnings play. The company announces earnings on Wednesday before the opening bell.

Here is the state of my options positions:

sym	option debit	share price	curr % max profit	net prft/shr $	option days left
EWZ	0.72	35.15	16.3	0.14	45
JBL	1.78	27.26	(29.9)	(0.41)	17
SPY	3.32	291.20	(8.1)	(0.25)	45

And of my shares positions:

sym	share price	net result %	net profit $	days held
AAPL	228.90	2.2%	4.94	18
CHK	4.45	11.3%	0.45	18
FXI	41.94	1.8%	0.73	18
SPXU	32.05	-21.0%	(8.51)	140
TSLA	305.14	0.0%	0.15	1
VNQI	55.31	-2.6%	(1.51)	19

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 2, 2018

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TSLA Inc. (TSLA)

I’ve entered a shares position on TSLA at $304.99 per shares. The company and it’s CEO Elon Musk have been battling the SEC over penalties resulting from a statement on Twitter by Musk that he planned to take the company private.

The statement roiled the markets as TSLA rose sharply, peaking at $387.46. The SEC’s proposed penalties led the price down to $260.56. The SEC announced a settlement on Saturday, and on Monday, when I entered the positions, the shares had risen sharply in pre-market trading, into the lower portion of the pre-brouhaha trading range.

The reason I chose long shares is that I think the settlement will give Tesla the best of all worlds.

Musk is a visionary genius, although erratic in his management style, especially in his public upset over short-sellers in the markets. The settlement requires Musk to step down as CEO for a minimum of three years. That will allow for professional oversight of his decisions. However, he will still retain his 19% or so ownership of the company, will still be the operational boss. In other words, the company keeps his genius, keeps him motivated and has a professional CEO to question his decisions.

And it’s time-limited. The Elon Musk of 2021 will have learned and grown, as we all do, and will perhaps be better able to again do the CEO job.

Bottom line: For me, TSLA is a story stock, pure and simple.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 1, 2018

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Today’s Book

None of My Business, by P.J. O’Rourke 

The libertarian satirist’s take on the markets and business. “Want to get rich overnight for free in 3 easy steps with no risk? Then don’t buy this book. (Actually, if you believe there’s a book that can do that, you shouldn’t buy any books because you probably can’t read.)”

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1:55 p.m. New York time

I’ve posted results for KMX.

1:25 p.m. New York time

I’ve posted the results for GNRC.

11:20 a.m. New York time

I’ve added an analysis of the TSLA trade.

9:30 a.m. New York time

A busy start to the day.

I’ve exited my options positions on GNRC, for 50.4% of maximum potential profit, and KMX, for 25.1% max. GNRC was an iron condor, which I manage at half of potential, and KMX was an iron fly, which I manage at a quarter of potential. So they were textbook trades. I shall update their analyses with results later in the day.

Also, now that Tesla and Elon Musk have settled with the SEC, I’m looking to play TSLA. I began this morning with a small long shares purchase and shall be looking at options strategies as well. Bottom line on TSLA; For me, it’s a pure story stock. I think Musk is a visionary genius, and although the company will be prone to surprises for some time to come, such is often the cases with visionaries. I think the potential reward is worth the risk, but the risk is indeed higher with TSLA than with, say F or GM.

I’ll post a brief TSLA analysis later.

Also, PAYX publishes earnings Tuesday morning. I’m passing on it without a full analysis. Implied volatility rank is 44, and I prefer to focus my earnings plays on prospects with IVRs above 50.

Here is the status of my options holdings:

sym	option debit	share price	curr % max profit	net prft/shr $	option days left
AMD	0.54	31.64	44.9	0.44	4
EWZ	0.63	33.53	26.7	0.23	46
JBL	1.85	27.11	(35.0)	(0.48)	18
MU	0.58	45.78	42.6	0.43	18
NKE	2.41	84.91	22.0	0.68	18
SPY	3.84	292.65	(25.1)	(0.77)	46

And of my share holdings:

sym	share price	net result %	net profit $	days held
AAPL	228.58	2.1%	4.62	17
CHK	4.54	13.5%	0.54	17
FXI	43.19	4.8%	1.98	17
SPXU	31.55	-22.2%	(9.01)	139
TSLA	308.25	1.1%	3.26	0
VNQI	56.21	-1.1%	(0.60)	18

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 1, 2018

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