Symbols traded today: QQQ SPY (3DTE)
I’ve entered short Iron Fly options positions on QQQ and SPY, held them over the weekend, and exited January 22, which was expiration day. Each position showed a small loss, a second indicator that a strategy that had worked isn’t working as well. I’m referring to the 1DTE short Iron Fly strategy.
These particular trades were entered under one analysis of the market. The S&P 500 moved in a way that forced a re-analysis, and the analytical universe in which the trades were exited was quite different.
See the January 22 Trader’s Notebook for a discussion of the change. The analytical tool is Elliott Wave Theory.
QQQ short Iron Fly
| LOT: | 2 | ENTRY DATE: | 1/19/2024 |
| EXIT DATE: | 1/22/2024 | ||
| DAYS HELD: | 3 |
Entry and Exit
| METRIC | CREDIT | DEBIT | CHANGE | CHANGE % | ANNUALIZED CHANGE % |
| Options premium | $ 2.41 | $ 2.52 | $ (0.11) | -4.4% | -528% |
| METRIC | ENTRY | EXIT | CHANGE | CHANGE % | ANNUALIZED CHANGE % |
| Stock price | $ 419.71 | $ 423.77 | $ (4.06) | 0.97% | 118% |
| Impllied Volatility Rate | 16.8 | 19.0 | 2.2 | ||
| Days to expiration | 3 | 0 |
The structure of the position
| STRUCTURE | STRIKE | ODDS EXPIRE OTM | DELTA | IN PRICE | OUT PRICE | CHANGE |
| Calls | ||||||
| Long | 423.00 | 76% | 24 | $ (0.58) | $ 1.68 | $ 1.10 |
| Break-even | 422.41 | 63% | 36.5 | |||
| Short | 420.00 | 50% | 49 | $ 1.67 | $ (3.99) | $ (2.32) |
| Puts | ||||||
| Short | 420.00 | 50% | 51 | $ 1.91 | $ (0.25) | $ 1.66 |
| Break-even | 418.41 | 65% | 36 | |||
| Long | 416.00 | 80% | 21 | $ (0.59) | $ 0.04 | $ (0.55) |
| ====== | ||||||
| NET TOTAL: | $ (0.11) |
Risk and Reward
| Per contract: | |
| Reward | 241.00 |
| Risk | 109.00 |
| R/R Ratio (n:1) | 0.5 |
SPY short Iron Fly
| LOT: | 3 | ENTRY DATE: | 1/19/2024 |
| EXIT DATE: | 1/22/2024 | ||
| DAYS HELD: | 3 |
Entry and Exit
| METRIC | CREDIT | DEBIT | CHANGE | CHANGE % | ANNUALIZED CHANGE % |
| Options premium | $ 2.04 | $ 2.23 | $ (0.19) | -8.5% | -1031% |
| METRIC | ENTRY | EXIT | CHANGE | CHANGE % | ANNUALIZED CHANGE % |
| Stock price | $ 481.36 | $ 484.24 | $ (2.88) | 0.60% | 73% |
| Impllied Volatility Rate | 13.5 | 11.5 | -2.0 | ||
| Days to expiration | 3 | 0 |
The structure of the position
| STRUCTURE | STRIKE | ODDS EXPIRE OTM | DELTA | IN PRICE | OUT PRICE | NET PRICE |
| Calls | ||||||
| Long | 484.00 | 75.0% | 24 | $ (0.50) | $ 1.01 | $ 0.51 |
| Break-even | 483.04 | 59.5% | 39 | |||
| Short | 481.00 | 44.0% | 54 | $ 1.67 | $ (3.35) | $ (1.68) |
| Puts | ||||||
| Short | 481.00 | 56.0% | 45 | $ 1.30 | $ (0.12) | $ 1.18 |
| Break-even | 480.04 | 68.5% | 32 | |||
| Long | 478.00 | 81.0% | 19 | $ (0.43) | $ 0.03 | $ (0.40) |
| ====== | ||||||
| ` | NET TOTAL: | $ (0.39) |
Risk and Reward
| Per contract: | |
| Reward | 204.00 |
| Risk | 2996.00 |
| R/R Ratio (n:1) | 14.7 |
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 19-20, 2024
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
License
All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.
Tim Bovee, Private Trader 
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