3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, reaching into the 5570s. Applying Elliott Wave Theory, the present decline is a C wave that began on February 19 from 6166.50. Altogether, the decline has cut 9.6% from the price.

Internally, wave C is in its final subwave, wave 5. When wave 5 is complete, wave C and the parent wave, a much larger declining 4th wave that began on December 16, 2024 will also be complete.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a high of 5757.75 after trading resumed overnight, and then fell, reaching the 5680s.

What does it mean? I adjusted the end of wave 3{-7} from March 4 to February 28, providing a more proportional wave 4{-7}, which ended on March 3 at 6000.50. Proportionality is an important tool in Elliott Wave Theory.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars, with volume]

What is the alternative?  I’ve found the decline that began on February 19 form 6166.50 to be particularly difficult to puzzle out. In place of the wave 3 and 4 changes I made today, I can also imagine wave 3 still being underway, with wave 4 not yet begun. There are some ambiguities still.

What does Elliott Wave Theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the morning’s analyses as they appeared on the chart.

Principal Analysis

• Falling wave C{-6} within falling wave 4{-5} continues.
• Falling wave 5{-7} is underway.
• When wave 5{-7} ends, it will also be the end of waves C{-6} and 4{-5}.
• Rising wave 5{-5} will begin, likely carrying the price to new heights.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2025, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• 5{-7} (no name), 3/3/2025, 6000.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 10, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com