3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a low of 5534 during the session and then reversed sharply, heading back to the 5640s, slightly below the overnight high.

Elliott Wave Theory: It’s possible that the low was the end of the 3rd wave that began on March 5, the middle wave of a declining 5th wave that began on March 3. If it plays out that way, then we can expect a 4th-wave upward correction (to be labeled wave 4{-7} on the chart).

It’s also possible that the 3rd wave I’m discussing is actually one degree lower (it would be labeled wave 3{-9} on the chart).

At this point, I’m staying with labels I had this morning, waiting for the chart to gain some clarity.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a low of 5558 overnight, shortly after the closing bell, then rose into the 5650s.

What does it mean? The major question facing Elliott Wave Theory as the session begins is how close is wave 5 to completion. The answer, I think, is that it’s not yet nearing its end. Wave 5, which began on March 3, is in its middle range, the 3rd wave.

Each wave on the chart has a wave number followed by a subscript in curly backets showing the waves position in the fractal structure of the chart; in this case, its distance in degrees from Intermediate degree.

On the chart, the 5th wave is wave 5{-7} and its subwave in progress is wave 3{-8}. Both are subwaves of wave C{-6}, the downward corrective wave that kicked off the ongoing dramatic decline on February 19, from 6166.50.

Wave C{-6}, in turn, is a subwave of wave 4{-5}, a downward correction that began on December 16, 2024, from 6163.75.

Bottom line, if the futures pla out as the waves suggest, is that we have more downside. But when the future falling wave 5{-8} is complete, that endpoint will cascade up the fractal stucture, marking the end of waves 5{-7}, C{-6} and 4{-5}.

An uptrending 5th wave will then begin, wave 5{-5}, that will almost certainly carry the price back into the 6160s, and perhaps significantly higher than that level if the wave turns to be an extended 5th, or if it is a truncated 5th, it may come up short.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 135-minute bars, with volume]

What is the alternative?  I’ve found the decline that began on February 19 form 6166.50 to be particularly difficult to puzzle out. For example, I can also imagine wave 3{-7} still being underway, with wave 4 not yet begun. There are some ambiguities still.

What does Elliott Wave Theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the morning’s analyses as they appeared on the chart.

Principal Analysis

• Falling wave C{-6} within falling wave 4{-5} continues.
• Falling wave 5{-7} is underway.
• When wave 5{-7} ends, it will also be the end of waves C{-6} and 4{-5}.
• Rising wave 5{-5} will begin, likely carrying the price to new heights.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2025, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• 5{-7} (no name), 3/3/2025, 6000.50 (down)
• 3{-8} (no name), 3/5/2025, 5869.40 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 11, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com