3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures declined during the session into the 5550s and then rose into the 5620s as the closing bell approached:

Elliott Wave Theory: The upward correction that began on March 11 continues. The ambiguity regarding its degree is unresolved.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reach 5675, the peak of the whipsaw that followed the release the Consumer Price Index.

What does it mean? As I mentioned yesterday, the chart is filled with ambiguities, not uncommon in a hot market. I’ve moved the chart closer in to focus on the present C-wave downtrend that began on February 19.

In discussing the revisions, I’ll use the labeling system used on the chart. Each wave has a number, followed by a subscript in curly brackets that indicates the waves position in the fractal structure of the waves. Specifically, the bracketed number is how many degrees distance the wave is from Intermediate degree.

Under the revision, wave C{-6}, which began on February 19, is still underway, as is wave 3{-7}, which began on March 3.

Wave 3{-8} continues, or perhaps is complete. There’s no certain way to tell. We do know that it has been in its 3rd subwave, wave 3{-9}. Is the March 11 low the end of 3{-9} and the beginning of wave 4{-9}? Or is the overnight rise a subwave of wave 3{-9}. Time will tell.

For the present, I will retain the wave 3{-9} continues scenario for my Principal Analysis and the wave 4{-9} has begun scenario as an alternative.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume]

What is the alternative? Discussed above in the “What does it mean?” section.

What does Elliott Wave Theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the morning’s analyses as they appeared on the chart.

Principal Analysis

• Falling wave C{-6} within falling wave 4{-5} continues.
• Falling wave 5{-7} is underway.
• When wave 5{-7} ends, it will also be the end of waves C{-6} and 4{-5}.
• Rising wave 5{-5} will begin, likely carrying the price to new heights.

Long-term Waves.

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2025, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• 5{-7} (no name), 3/3/2025, 6000.50 (down)
• 3{-8} (no name), 3/5/2025, 5869.40 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 12, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com