3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures reached a low of 5533.75 during the session and then rose back into the 5650s as the closing bell approached.

Applying Elliott Wave Theory analysis, I see the see the reversal as, potentially, the end of the middle subwave, wave 3, within the C wave that is the final subwave of a 4th-wave downward correction, labeled as wave 4{-12} on the chart. If the 4th wave correction isn’t taking a compound form, then the correction has ended and a 5th-wave uptrend has begun.

It’s still early in the deveopment of the rise that began this session, so it’s still possible for the downward 4th wave to still be underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell slightly, from 5600 to the 5550sm after trading resumed overnight.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory sees the decline that began on March 25 from 5734.25 as a 4th-wave downward correction within a rising 5th wave, which in turn is the final subwave, wave C, within a 4th-wave upward correction that began in mid-February.

The smaller 4th-wave downward correction is its final subwave, wave C, which, when complete, will have five subwaves. I count it as being in wave 3 — that would include last week’s dramatic.

Coming next, a 4th-wave upward correction, and then a declining 5th wave that will be the end of downward wave C, and up the fractal structure of the waves by one degree, making the upward movement a 5th wave within a parent 5th wave.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What does Elliott Wave Theory say? Here are the waves that underlie the morning’s analyses as they appeared on the chart.

Principal Analysis

• Rising wave 4{-9} is underway and internally is in rising wave C{-10}.
• Wave C{-10} is in its final subwave, wave 5{-11}, which in turn is within wave 4{-12}.
• Wave 4{-12} is in wave C{-13}.
• When wave 5{-11} is complete, it will also be the end of wave C{-10} and most likely the end of the 4th wave upward correction, wave 4{-9}.
• When wave 4{-9} is complete, downtrending wave 5{-9} will begin, carrying the price back to the 5530s and most likely lower.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• 5{-7} (no name), 3/3/2025, 6000.50 (down)
• 3{-8} (no name), 3/5/2025, 5869.40 (down)
• 4{-9} (no name), 3/11/2025, 5534 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 31, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com