Welcome to Gold. This is the first issue of my daily analysis of GLD, the exchange traded fund (ETF) that tracks the price of gold bullion. In the gold analyses, I shall use both the ETF and the futures, whifh trade overnight

11 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The Gold Futures rose when trading resumed overnight, and the exchange-traded fund GLD rose as the opening bell sounded, from 313.95 to 316.33 in the first 40 minutes of the session. It then reversed, dropping below 315.

What does it mean? Elliiott Wave Theory analysis sees the rise is a continuation of an uptrending 5th wave that began on April 17 from 302.71. The parent wave is a larger uptrending 5th wave that began on April 14 from 294.48

Encompassing both is a larger uptrending 5th wave that began on April 7 from 272.58.

The end of smallest of the 5th waves will cascade up the fractal change, signaling the end from the smallest all the way up to the 5th wave that began at the start of 2024. The downward correction that follows will dominate GLD’s path for quite a long time.

[Gold futures, 11:10 a.m., 25-minute bars, with volume]

Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, GLD wave 3{0}, began its rise on November 3, 2022 from 150.57 and is still underway.

The waves referred to above are as follows:

Within rising wave 5{-1}, rising waves 5{-2} through 5{-5} are underway. When the smallest of the 5th waves, wave 5{-5} ends, all the 5th waves will end, up to wave 5{-1}.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• GLD exchange-traded fund:
• 3{+1} Primary, 12/17/2015, 100.23 (up)
• 3{0} Intermediate, 11/3/2022, 150.57 (up)
• 5{−1} Minor, 1/2/2024, 181.31 (up)
• 5{−2} Minute, 3/1/2024, 259.34 (up)
• 5{−3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 286.74 (up)
• 2{−4} Micro, 2/1/2025, ~245.00 (down)
• 3{−4} Micro, 2/22/2025, ~278.00 (up)
• 4{−4} Micro, 2/26/2025, ~268.00 (down)
• 5{−4} Micro, 3/21/2025, ~289.00 (up)
• 1{−5} Submicro, 3/21/2025, ~289.00 (up)
• 5{−5} Submicro, 4/7/2025, 286.74 (up)
• B{-6} Minuscule, 4/17/2025, 302.73

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 21 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com