3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures stalled its decline in the 5380s, rising slightly and then fall slightly but making no progress in either direction.

Elliott Wave Theory: The decline is a downward correction within wave C, the final subwave of the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 10. Or, an alternative, the high before the deline was the end of wave C and the correction.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from the 5370s to the 5450s.

What does it mean? In light of Elliott Wave Theory analysis, the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 20 continues to work its way through what is likely its final subwave, wave C.

All of this is encompassed within wave 5{-8}, a downtrending impulse wave that began on April 9.

I say “likely the final subwave” because some corrections take a complex form, with one A-B-C subwave pattern being followed by a second three-wave pattern, separated from the first by an X-wave. And in some cases, the complex form will have a third three-subwave pattern.

A 2nd wave, such as the rise now underway, cannot move beyond the starting point of the preceding 1st wave. If it does, then the analysis must be changed. In the present case, the preceding 1st wave began on April 9 from 5528.75.

As can be seen by the present price — the 5450s — the 2nd wave correction is coming close to its upper limit.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m, 35-minute bars, with volume]

 Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to above are as follows. Downtrending wave 5{-8} is underway, a subwave of wave C{-7}, also declining, which in turn is a subwave of declining wave C{-6}, with both C waves encompassed by declining wave 4{-5}, which began on December 16, 2024.

All of this is happening four-steps deep and more with wave within uptrending wave 3{-4}, which began on August 7, 2024 from 5182.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• C{-7} Minuscule, 3/25/2025, 5835 (down)
• 5{-8} (no name), 3/9/2025, 5528.75 (down)
• 2{-9} (no name), 4/10/2025, 5146.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 23, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com