3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching beyond the April 23 high, 5499.75, reaching 5514.75 before dropping back.

The break above yesterday’s high confirmed the principal analysis: Rising wave C, the final subwave of the wave 2 upward correction, is underway. The alternative analysis posted this morning? Not happening.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined overnight and thern rose, retracing a Fibonacci 78.6% of the decline.

What does it mean? The rise, analyzed using Elliott Wave Theory, leaves unanswered whether yesterday’s analysis was correct: The decline was a correction contained with the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 10.

I intend to stick with that analysis until I see greater evidence to the contrary. For the present, the principal analysis is the ongoing wave 2 scenario, and the alternative analysis has wave 2 ending on April 23 at 5499.75 and wave 3 beginning.

Under the principal analysis, look for a quick reversal to the downside as downtrending wave 3 picks up energy. Under the alternative analysis, look for a rapid push against 5499.75.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m, 35-minute bars, with volume]

 Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to above are as follows.

Principal analysis: Upward correction wave 2{-9} is underway, having paused for corrective wave of the {-10} degree.

Alternative analysis: Upward correction wave 2{-9} ended on April 23 and downtrending wave 3{-9} is underway.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• C{-7} Minuscule, 3/25/2025, 5835 (down)
• 5{-8} (no name), 3/9/2025, 5528.75 (down)
• 2{-9} (no name), 4/10/2025, 5146.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 24, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com