3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures resumed its rise, reaching 5554.50.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave C within a 4th-wave upward correction continues. I’ve updated the chart in the Revised Analysis section.

9:57 a.m. New York time

The Revised Analysis I’ve revised the analysis of the chart, changing everything from April 7 to the present as subwaves of a rising 4th-wave correction (wave 4{-8} on the chart). Present wave C{-9} within wave 4{-8} is underwqy.,

I’ve retained the earlier chart to allow easy comparison.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m, 35-minute bars, with volume]

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures peaked at 5553 overnight and then retreated back to the 5480s.

What does it mean?  I’ve attempted to apply Elliott Wave Theory to the subwaves of the present rising wave C within the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on April 10.

C waves have five subwaves. The difficuty with the pattern is that there is little to distinguish the 1st subwave from the 3rd. Another way of saying it is that threre is no clear 2nd wave. The 4th wave, by contrast, has great clarity.

So, now underway, wave 5 within the C wave. The upward correction is in its final wave, unless it forms a complex pattern, with two or three A-B-C patterns.

And yet, there’s a problem. A firm rule of Elliott Wave Theory declares that a 2nd wave never moves beyond the beginning of the preceding 1st wave. The 1st wave began on April 9 from 5528.75. The 2nd wave peaked at 5553 overnight. The rule has been broken, and It’s back to the drawing board to reanalyze everythng that has happened since April 9.

No time for the work before postng. I will post an update when the work is complete.

Revised: See new chart above.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m, 35-minute bars, with volume]

 Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to on the revised chart are as follows.

Principal analysis: Upward correction wave 4{-8} is underway and is in its final subwave, wave C{-9}., having paused for corrective wave 4{-10}. Wave 5{-10} has begun.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Note: This list has been revised based on the chart analysis revision.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 3{-2} Minute, 10/13/2022, 3491.58 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 5{-3} Minuette, 4/18/2024, 4963.50 (up)
• 3{-4} Subminuette, 8/7/2024, 5182 (up)
• 4{-5} Micro, 12/16/2024, 6163.75 (down)
• C{-6} Submicro, 2/19/2025, 6166.50 (down)
• C{-7} Minuscule, 3/25/2025, 5835 (down)
• 4{-8} (no name), 3/7/2025, 48322 (up)
• C{-9} (no name), 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 25, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com