1:45 p.m. New York time

What’s happening now. Gold futures began rising before two major economic reports were released before the session began and halted after a moderate upward movement. The two reports were GDP for the 1st quarter and the ADP employment study. The exchange-traded fund GLD also rose as the opening bell sounded.

What does it mean? GLD’s present wave is declining wave C, the final subwave of a larger declining A wave.

I applied Elliott Wave Theory to the C wave. Internally, it is in the 3rd of its five subwaves. The smallness of the present rise suggests it is a subwave of that wave 3, suggesting that the wave has more downside ahead of it.

The end of the final subwave, wave 5, within wave C will also end the C wave and its parent A wave, which began on April 21. Rising wave B will then begin, retracing part of the prior A wave’s decline.

[Gold futures, 1:45 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume]

Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, GLD wave 3{0}, began its rise on November 3, 2022 from 150.57 and is still underway.

The waves referred to above are as follows:

Declining wave C{-4} paused for a small upward correction before continuing its decline. ended on April 24 at 310.93 and declining wave C{-4} began and is underway. C4 is a subwave of declining wave A{-3}.

When wave C{-4} is complete, it will also be the end of wave A{-3} and the beginning of rising wave B{-3}, which typically retraces 38% to 79% of the preceding decline, wave A{-3}.

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• GLD exchange-traded fund:
• 3{+1} Primary, 12/17/2015, 100.23 (up)
• 4{0} Intermediate, 4/21/2025, 322.52 (down)
• A{−1} Minor, 4/21/2025, 322.52 (down)
• A{−2} Minute, 4/21/2025, 322.52 (down)
• A{−3} Minuette, 4/21/2025, 322.52 (down)
• C{−4} Subminuette, 4/24/2025, 310.93 (down)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/28/2025, 309.07 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 30, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com