3:30 p.m. New York time

Chart Revision: Final Version (for now). I went back in the history of the S&P 500’s movements to build a robust revision of the Elliott Wave Theory analysis of the S&P 500 futures.

The unresolved problem was uncertainty over the labeling of the April 2 high. I new from prior work that the price had gone higher still long before April.

To figure it out, my guide was this S&P 500 index chart that I’ve worked on for years. This version stretches from October 13, 2022 — deep in the pandemic — to the present — amid the trade wars.

[S&P 500 index at 3:00 p.m, daily bars] 

The starting point for this morning’s incomplete revision, on April 2, was far from being a turning point of significance. The turning point that counts was on February 19, 2025, when a 3rd wave of Minute degree came to end and a declining 4th-wave correction began. Correction ended on April 7 at 4832 and the present 5th wave began.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m, 2-hour bars, with volume] 

We know that we’re in the 1st subwave of that wave 5, but there’s no way know how deep in wave 1 the present movements are. I took a guess, Submicro degree, but it could be off by a degree or two in either direction.

Or it’s possible that the 4th wave that began on February 19 is still underway, that the April 7 low, rather than being the end of the correction, is instead the ended of the corrections A wave.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures began the overnight session from 5601, rose sharply on Thursday and rose sharply a second time on Friday, into the 5690s, coinciding with the release of the Employment Situation Report, in which the unemployment rate remained unchanged and jobs were more than economists had expected.

What does it mean?  The rise reached a new high for the final subwave, wave C, of the upward correction identified by Elliott Wave Theory. That means that what had been labelled wave 4 has broken a rule of Elliott Wave Theory by moving beyond the end of the preceding 1st wave.

I have changed the location of the beginning of wave 1, which turns the present upward correction into wave 2. The subwaves within wave 2 remain unchanged from the discarded wave 4 analysis. It’s a work in progress, and I’ll update the chart as soon as I’ve completed the reanalysis.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m, 50-minute bars, with volume] 

Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to on the chart are as follows.

Principal analysis: Upward correction wave 2{-8} is underway and is in its final subwave, wave C{-9},

More on the New Analysis. Wave April 2 peak was a major endpoint covering three degrees, waves C{-7}, C{-6} and 4{-5}. Wave 5{-5} follows, and waves 1{-6} and 1{-7} are now underway, as is wave 2{-8} and its subwaves.

There is still some work to be done t ensure that April 2 is truly the peak; it might be earlier, and that will be a job for the weekend. [The work is done.]

Long-term Waves

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

[Revised version from the afternoon posting.]

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/21/2025, 4832 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 2, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com