3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the opening bell. The S&P 500 futures remained slightly above 5900 as the closing bell approached. Elliott Wave Theory: I’m staying with this morning’s principal analysis — the wave-4-continues scenario — while remaining mindful of the alternative analysis — the wave-5-has-begun scenario — while searching out confirming evidence that the 5th wave truly is underway.

9:35 a.m. New York

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell sharply overnight as the opening bell approached. The declne coincided with the release of two economic reports: the Personal Income and Outlays report, and Personal Income Expenditures. The price began to drop from 5921.50, reversed from 5876.50, and retraced back to 5907.

What does it mean? When analyzed using Elliott Wave Theory, the chart shows five waves between the May 29 high of 6908 and the overnight low of 5876.50, sufficient to label the entire decline from that high as wave C, the final subwave of the 4th-wave downward correction that began on May 19.

At question is whether the overnight low marks the completion of the final subwave — a declining n5th wave — within wave C or a upward pause within the continuing 5th-wave decline.

For the moment, lacking evidence to the contrary, I’m retaining the analysis that considers declining wave 5 to still be underway.

If the alternative analysis, considering declining wave 5 to have ended at the overnight low, that will also be the end of the parent wave, the 4th-wave downward correction, and the beginning of an uptrending 5th wave the same degree as wave 4. That larger wave 5 will be the final subwave of its parent, a still larger 5th wave that began on May 7 from 5596.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 85-minute bars, with volume] 

Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to on the chart are as follows.

Principal analysis: Upward correction wave 5{-2} is underway and within it is working through a nested series of initial subwaves, wave 1{-3} down to wave 1{-5}. One degree lower, rising wave 3{-6} is underway and is in its final subwave, wave 5{-7},

Within wave 5{-7}, uptrending wave 5{-8} is in its next-to-the-last stage, a downward correction, wave 4{-9}.

Within wave 4{-9}, its initial subwave, wave C{-10}, is underway. An alternative analysis sees wave 5{-10} as having ended at today’s overnight decline, ending wave C{-10} and wave 4{-9} and beginning uptrending wave 5{-9}, the final subwave within wave 5{-8}.

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/21/2025, 4832 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 30, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com