3:30 p.m.New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching 5991.25 and then retreatng slightly. The rise put the price close to 6008, the starting point of the the 4th-wave downward correction

The rise put the price close enough to that level, which is confirmation that the 5th wave is now underway, that I’ve made that scenario the principal analysis, and altered the chart to conform,.

Here’s the wave lineup under the new Principal Analysis: Upward correction wave 5{-2} is underway and within it is working through a nested series of initial subwaves, wave 1{-3} down to wave 1{-5}. One degree lower, rising wave 3{-6} is underway and is in its final subwave, wave 5{-7},

Within wave 5{-7}, uptrending wave 5{-8} is in its final stage, uptrending wave 5{-9}.

Within wave 5{-9}, its initial subwave, wave 3{-10}, is probably what’s underway, unless it’s a strange 2nd wave.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures initiall fell overnight, from the 5940s to sligtly below 5910, and then rose back into the 5940s, remaining below the early overnight high.

What does it mean? In yesterday’s analysis I ran through the ambiguity that has been with the futures since last week, and I refer the reader to the “What does it mean?” section in that edition of Trader’s Notebook.

Simple version: Either downtrending wave 4 is n its final subwave (black labels), wave C, or wave 4 ended on May 23 and wave 5 began and is underway today (red labels).

I’ve kept the 4th-wave scenario as my prncipal analysis. What could change that decision? A break above 6008, the end of wave 1 in the 5th-wave scenario. If the price turns and resumes its decline, then the 4th-wave scenario remains the most likely scenario.

How low will wave 4 go? At a minimum, I would expect wave C to be the length of wave A within the 4th wave, which would carry the price down to the low 5600s.

How high will wave t5 go? At a minimum, I would expect it to reach into the 5990s at a minimum, with a length equal to the preceding 1st wave.

How will it play out? Time will tell.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume] 

Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to on the chart are as follows.

Principal analysis: Upward correction wave 5{-2} is underway and within it is working through a nested series of initial subwaves, wave 1{-3} down to wave 1{-5}. One degree lower, rising wave 3{-6} is underway and is in its final subwave, wave 5{-7},

Within wave 5{-7}, uptrending wave 5{-8} is in its next-to-the-last stage, a downward correction, wave 4{-9}.

Within wave 4{-9}, its initial subwave, wave C{-10}, is underway. An alternative analysis sees wave 5{-10} as having ended at today’s overnight decline, ending wave C{-10} and wave 4{-9} and beginning uptrending wave 5{-9}, the final subwave within wave 5{-8}. Wave 5{-9} in this scenario is now in iwave 2{-10}, its second subwave out of five.

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/21/2025, 4832 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 3, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com