3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour beofre the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell after a high of 6074.75 at the session’s beginning, so far reaching 6006.24

Elliott Wave Theory: The decline has covered enough ground to designate the early high as the end of rising wave B within the 4th-wave downward correction that began on June 5, and the beginning of declining wave C, the final subwave of the correction, if the correction is typical. More to come in tomorrow morning’s analysis.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume] 

9:35 a.m. New York time.

Note: I’ve left this morning’s work as it was when wave B was underway, allowing an easy comparison with the new analysis, wave C is underway.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply, from 6042 to 6073.50, in the first minute after the government’s CPI-u inflation report was published and then returned to the 6040s

What does it mean? Viewed through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, the rise was confirmation that wave B is still underway. It is the middle subwave of a 4th-wave downward correction that began on June 5 from 5929.75.

B waves typically have three subwaves. Frankly, this B wave is such a scribble that I can’t say with confidence which subwave of it we’re in. Wave B has retraced the preceding A wave several times over, and so it seems likely that wave B is experiencing its last hoorah as it approaches its end.

Declining wave C will follow, if typical carrying the price below 6,000, and, when complete, will most likely mark the end of its parent, wave 4, and the beginning of an uptrending 5th-wave. Most Flat corrections have three subwaves. Some stretch out to six or nine subwaves, each separated by what some call an X-wave.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 35-minute bars, with volume] 

Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to on the chart are as follows.

Principal analysis: Upward correction wave 5{-2} is underway and within it is working through a nested series of initial subwaves, wave 1{-3} down to wave 1{-5}. One degree lower, rising wave 3{-6} is underway and is in its final subwave, wave 5{-7},

Within wave 5{-7}, uptrending wave 5{-8} is in its final stage, uptrending wave 5{-9}.

Within wave 5{-9}, its middle subwave, wave 3{-10}, is underway. Internally, wave 3{-10} is in its 4th subwave, wave 4{-11}, a downward correction that began from 6016.50.

Wave 4{-11} is in its 2nd subwave, rising wave B{-12}.

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/21/2025, 4832 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 11, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.