3:30 p.m. New York Time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose early in the session and then resumed the decline, reaching into the 6030s as a session close approached.

Elliott Wave Theory: The 4th-wave downtrend correction that began on June 16 continues. When it is complete, wave 5 within the parent rising 4th wave that began on June 12 will begin, carrying the price higher.

The present line-up of the degrees within the present fractal structure is more than a little confusing. Most friends of mine tend to hang on to their holdings for awhile. I would suggest that traders with longer-term goals will do better to keep an eye on wave 5{-9}, which began on May 23 and which has been in its 3rd subwave, rising wave 3{-10}, since May 30.

Of course, for the super long-term investor, the wave to track is wave 5{+1}, which began on March 6, 2009, during the Great Recession and which is and which is in its final subwave, wave 5{0}, which began on February 11, 2016.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight, from the 6090s to the 6050s

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the 4th-wave downward correction that began on correction that began on June 5 continuing to work through its final subwave, wave C. (On the chart: 4{-11, C{-12}.

C waves generally have five subwaves, and this subwave is in its next-to-the-last subwave, rising wave 4, which began on June 12. (On the chart: 4{-13}.)

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume] 

Elliott Wave Theory wave labels. Each wave listed on the charts has two components: A wave number, and a subscript in curly brackets that place the wave’s position in the fractal strucutre in relationship to Intermediate degree. The present Intermediate degree, wave 5{0}, began its rise on February 11, 2016 from 1810.10 and is still underway.

The waves referred to on the chart are as follows.

Principal analysis: Upward correction wave 5{-2} is underway and within it is working through a nested series of initial subwaves, wave 1{-3} down to wave 1{-5}. One degree lower, rising wave 3{-6} is underway and is in its final subwave, wave 5{-7},

Within wave 5{-7}, uptrending wave 5{-8} is in its final stage, uptrending wave 5{-9}.

Within wave 5{-9}, its middle subwave, wave 3{-10}, is underway. Internally, wave 3{-10} is in its next to the last subwave, wave 4{-11}, a downward correction that began from 6016.50.

Falling wave 4{-11} is in its final subwave, declining wave C{-12}, which is in its next-to-the-last subwave, rising wave 4{-13}.and which is in its final subwave

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/21/2025, 4832 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 17, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.