3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session, reaching into the 6130s so far.

Elliott Wave Theory: A rising 3rd wave continues within a larger 5th wave.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight from the 6130s to the 6150s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis labels the rise that began on June 22 as a 5th-wave uptrend that, internally, is in its middle subwave, wave 3.

There is some ambiguity in the analysis. An extremely shallow decline on June 25, from 6155.25, could be a 4th-wave downward correction. If so, it would mean that the final subwave, wave 5, has begun. To me, the 4th-wave decline seems too shallow to be of the same degree as the preceding 3rd wave.

So, I see two possible interpretations, using the labels that appear on the chart, a wave number followed by a subscript in brackets showing the number of degrees distance from Intermediate degree.

• Principal analysis: Wave 3{-11} continues, with wave 4{-12}, a subwave, having ended on June 24 and wave 5{-12} having begun.
• Alternative analysis: Wave 5{-11} has begun, within wave 4{-10} having ended on June 24.eceding 3rd wave.

While a shallow decline from 6155.25 could technically be counted as wave 4{-11}, it lacks both depth and duration typical of that degree. I favor the interpretation that wave 3{-11} is still in progress, and we are now in its final subwave, wave 5{-12}. A strong upward move above 6160–6170 with volume could confirm this and start the countdown to 4{-11}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 60-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 3{-11} (unnamed), 6/24/2025, 6155.25 {up}
• 5{-12} (unnamed), 6/24/2025, 6109 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 25, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.