3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. After falling into the 6310s early in the session, the S&P 500 futures rose, reaching into the 6350s.

Elliott Wave Theory: Once bitten twice shy.

For this morning’s analysis, I saw at the futures’ rise and concluded that wave 4 was over and wave 5 had begun, a nicely done piece of work if I do say so myself. It lasted until the opening bell when, as the echo faded, the price reversed and fell sharply.

I quickly had to redo the analysis and managed to file on time, although it was one of the shorter analyses I’ve ever done.

And now it’s late in the session, and the futures have reversed from their fall and begun to rise again.

The rise is now tracing it’s 5th subwave. So what’s going on?

I’ve changed the chart — yet again to show that wave 5 has begun from the session low. I think wave 5 is the more likely bet, but I fully realize that wave 4 continues is also a significan likelihood.

How each is confirmed:

• If the price rises to 6374 and above, then the wave 5 scenario gains credence.
• If the price drops to 6334 and lower, then the wave 4 scenario gains credence.

So, this afternoon’s choice: Principal analysis: Wave 5. Alternative analysis: Wave 4.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from the overnight low, 6335.25, so far reaching into the 6340s and then dropped at the opening bell.

What does it mean? The downtrending 4th-wave correction continues and is nearing its end.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 15-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 (up)
• 3{-12} (unnamed), 6/30/2025, 6224 (up)
• 5{-13} (unnamed), 7/14/2025, 6529.75 (up)
• 5{-14} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6241 (up)
• 3{-15} (unnamed), 7/16/2025, 6288.25 (up)
• 5{-16} (unnamed), 7/22/2025, 6318.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 22, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.