2:55 p.m. New York time.

Happy 4th of July! Some Americans still call the day on which we declared our independence “The Glorious 4th”. Despite the difficulties that we have faced from time to time over the centuries, and some would say in the present, I’m one of those Americans who still call July 4 by that old fashioned name.

But holiday though it may be, nothing stops the markets from moving forward. And it was a significant day.

What happened on July 4. The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded overnight and into the 4th of July holiday, closing at 1 p.m. New York time. The price fell from its opening, 6322.25, down to 6276.50, and then stayed within a sideways range until until trading ended.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the peak during the July 3 session, 6331.75, as the end of the 3rd subwave within the 5th-wave uptrend correction that began on June 27.

The subsequent decline is wave 4, a downward correction, that when the holiday session ended had reached a low of 6285.50. There is no notable pattern of subwaves within the decline. The simplest interpretation is that the July 4 low marks the end of wave A within the correction, and the slight bounce upward is the start of wave B, the middle wave within the most common 3-wave form of a correction.

Looking forward: when wave 4 is complete, a 5th wave will begin. Fifth waves are tricky beasts. Most often they leap forward, moving above the endpoint of the preceding 3rd wave (6333.25). Sometimes, they fall short and never reach that level. An sometimes, they will take an extended form, that will carry the price far beyond levels that seem reasonable.

Which kind is this 5th wave? Time will tell.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 1 p.m., 25-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 (up)
• 3{-12} (unnamed), 6/30/2025, 6224 (up)
• 3{-13} (unnamed), 7/1/2025, 6227.50 (up)
• 4{-14} {unnamed), 7/3/2025, 6335.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 4, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

Short session today, holiday tomorrow. The markets will close early today, at 1 p.m. New York time, in anticipation of the 4th of July holiday on Friday. The markets will be closed on Friday, except for an abbreviated futures session, which I shall monitor and file an analysis if anything interesting happens. I shall post today’s afternoon analysis at 12:30 p.m. New York time.

Half an hour before the closing bell. Having reached a low of 6270.50 overnight, the S&P 500 futures rose throughout the session, reaching into the 6330s as the end drew near.

Elliott Wave Theory: I’ll use the labeling method that appears on the chart: A wave number followed by a subscript, in curly brackets, that tells the position of the degree within the fractal structure relative to Intermediate degree.

The present rise is wave 3{-14}, a subwave within wave 3{-13}. Both are encapsulated within wave 3{-12}, which began on June 30, a subwave of wave 5{-11}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 5{-10}, which began on June 22 from 5959.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fluctuated sideways for much of the overnight trading, and then shot upward in the span of 6 minutes, from the 6270s to the 6290s, when the Employment Situation Report was released, a day early because of the pending holiday.

The price reached a new higher high, 6296, and then immediately retreated, returning to the range within which it had traded overnight. It then rose again, reaching a new higher high.

What does it mean? My Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the rise and retreat as subwaves with an ongoing 3rd wave that began its rise on June 30. Wave is in turn a subwave within a rising 5th wave one degree higher.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 12:30 p.m., 20-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 (up)
• 3{-12} (unnamed), 6/30/2025, 6224 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 3, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching a higher high by a few a dollars.

I’ve moved the chart closer in to better understand the internal structure of the 5th wave that began on June 22 from 5959. For greater clarity, I’ll use the wave labels on the chart: A wave number, followed by a degree position relative to Intermediate degree.

The wave that began on June 22 is wave 5{-10}. Internally, it is in its final leg, wave 5{-11}. which began on June 22.

The closeup shows the subwaves of wave wave 5{-11}. which is presently in wave 3{-12}.

The patterns are a bit unclear within wave 5{-11}. My principal analysis is that wave 3{-12} is still underway, with the decline that preceded the current rise being a subwave with the 3rd wave.

The alternative analysis is that wave 3{-12} ended at the peak from which the brief decline began and wave 4{-12} began. Adding another choice: Wave 4 may have ended at the end of the decline, or that decline may have been wave A{-13] within wave 4{-23}.

Ambiguities abound.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to a higher high overnight, 6270.75, and then fell, picking up the pace of decline after the ADP employment report showed a loss of private sector jobs, the first since 2023.

The ADP report is a preview of the government’s Employment Situation Report, which will be released on Thursday rather than the usual Friday because the markets will be closed on Friday for the 4th of July holiday.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis views the higher high as the end of a small downward correction and the beginning of the uptrend within a 5th wave that began June 27. The low point of the overnight decline remans above yesterday’s low, 6227.25, suggesting the uptrend has resumed.

If the price were to fall below that level, it would call this analysis into question, and I’d move to an alternative: The downward correction within wave 5 continues.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 20-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 (up)
• 3{-12} (unnamed), 6/30/2025, 6224 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 2, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures, after hitting a low for the day of 6227.25 a few minutes before the opening bell, rose during the session, reaching a high of 6261.50 and then falling sharply.

Elliott Wave Theory: The downward correction of the past day is within a 5th-wave uptrend that began on June 27.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures declined overnight from yesterday’s high, 6265.50, so far reaching a low of 6227.25.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis is ambiguous. My principal analysis says the decline as a downward corrective wave within a rising 5th-wave that began on June 27. That wave is labelled 5{-11} on the chart an is stil underway.

In the wave references below, I refer to the chart labels in this format: Wave number, and wave degree as a subscript in curly brackets, with the degree being given relative to Intermediate degree.

My alternative analysis says the yesterday’s peak was the end of wave 5{-11} and its parent wave, 5{-10, and a series of three larger 5th waves — 5{-9}, 5{-8} and 5{-7}. One degree higher, it is also the end of wave 3{-6} and the beginning of wave A{-7} within wave 4{-6}.

Which is most likely to be correct? I can’t say for sure. Perhaps today’s session will clarify the analysis.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 65-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 5{-2} Minute, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 1{-5} Micro, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-6} Submicro, 4/24/2025, 5260 (up)
• 5{-7} Minuscule, 4/25/2025, 5550 (up)
• 5{-8} (unnamed), 5/7/2025, 5596 (up)
• 5{-9} (unnamed), 5/23/2025, 5756.50 (up)
• 5{-10} (unnamed), 6/22/2025, 5959 (up)
• 5{-11} (unnamed), 6/27/2025, 6183.25 {up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 1, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.