3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continued to rise during the session, peaking at 6681 and then pulling back to the 6660s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The rise possibly still under way is a subwave of wave C, the final subwave of the 4th-wave uptrend that began on September 2.

Wave C has been in a fairly steady rise, occasionally interrupted by quick withdrawals. The decline from the peak of today’s session is of similar magnitude so far as the earlier mini-retracements. So there’s a great deal of uncertainty as to how close wave C is to a finish.

If the price reverses and tops the present peak, 668f1.25, then wave C and its parent wave 4 are still underway. If the price continues to fall, then the further it falls, more more likely wave 4 ended at the peak, and wave 5 began.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures closed on Friday at 6588.50. When trading resumed it opened at 6645, and then worked it’s way higher into the 6670s.

What does it mean?  When viewed through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, wave C — the final subwave within the rising 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 2 — is underway and at an advanced stage. The internal structure of wave C has less clarity. I can see it as being in wave 3, but also possibly in wave 5.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 75-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
• C{-10} (unnamed), 8/28/2025, 6523 (down)
• 4{-11} (unnamed), 9/2/2025, 6371.75 (up)
• C{-12} (unnamed), 9/5/2025, 6452 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 15, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com