3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching a high so far 6703.75.

Elliott Wave Theory: The rise is a low-degree 4th wave upward correction. When complete, it will be followed by a downtrending 5th wave that likely will carry the price into the 6620s and perhaps significantly lower.

If, instead, the price returns to the 6720s, It’s possible the analysis will require a revision.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight to 6624.25 and then rose back into the 6690s.

What does it mean?  In examining the chart through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, I’ve chosen to focus on the decline that began on September 22. In the discussion that follows, I’ll use labeling method on the chart: A wave number followed by degree designator within the fractal structure of the Elliott Wave movements. The fractal structure, in curly brackets, is the number of degrees distance from Intermediate degree, which is wave 5{0} that began on February 11, 2016.

Declining wave C{-10} began on September 22 from 6756.75. It is the final subwave within wave 4{-9}, a downward correction that began on August 14 from 6508.75. See the September 25 afternoon posting for a more extensive chart stretching back to mid-August.

Internally, wave C{-10} is in its 1st of 5 subwaves — wave 1{-11}) — which in turn is in its middle subwave — wave 3{-12}. The overnight is rising wave 4{-13}, the next-to-the-last subwave within wavd 3{-12}.

Wave C{-10} is early in its journey, and there are few markers to help identify the proper degree labeling. I’ve chosen to see the decline as being wave 1, which is still underway. Everything else is subwaves.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 10-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
• C{-10} (unnamed), 9/22/2025, 6756.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 9/22/2025, 6756.75 (down)
• 3{-12} unnamed, 9/24/6728.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 26 , 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com