3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to decline as the opening bell approached and continued throughout the session, beginning from 6736 and so far reaching the 6690s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The decline is not yet sufficient to declare an end of the 4th-wave upward correction that began on September 25 from 6654. So on the afternoon, as was the case in the morning chart, wave 4 is underway and within it wave C is nearings its end.

A falling X wave will follow, and afterward another three-wave corrective pattern. See this morning’s analysis below for my reasoning.

9:54 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise overnight.

What does it mean? The rise put the chart in rule-breaking status according to Elliott Wave Theory, as it put the parent wave 3{-12} into wave 1{-12} territory.

There is no easy fix to this — the search for one is why I’m posting late.

Here’s the best I can come up with: Wave 4{-13} is developing as a complex correction, with wave C{-14}, now underway, being the final subwave of the first corrective pattern. An X wave will come next, and then a second corrective pattern within wave 4{-13}.

The rule against returning to wave 1 territory applies only to impulse waves, those with five subwaves with wave 3 not being the shortest. Since we’re not in an impulse wave but still in a corrective wave, and will still be in a corrective wave wen wave C{-14} is complete and the X wave has begun, the rule hasn’t been violated. Therefore, no harm, no foul.

I know, it sounds a bit like theology. But for now, here I stand.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 15-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
• C{-10} (unnamed), 9/22/2025, 6756.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 9/22/2025, 6756.75 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 29 , 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com