3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell from the late overnight peak, 6800, reaching 6754, and then rose back into the 6770s.

Elliott Wave Theory once again raises the question, is the peak a stopping point as wave C within the 4th-wave upward correction continues? Or is it the end of wave C and the start of a wave X separator between the first corrective pattern and a second corrective pattern in a complex 4th-wave correction?

The answer lies in the future. What we know now is that the lower the price goes, the more likely the X-wave scenario, and the higher it rises, the more likely it is that wave C continues. At this point, I’m sticking with wave C because that’s the status quo.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures climbed higher overnight, reaching a new peak, 6787.50, and then fell back into the 6760s.

What does it mean? I’ve modified the locations of waves A and B within the Elliott Wave Theory analysis. See yesterday’s chart (October 2) for the previous locations. Subsequent events clarified where the locations should be, with better proportions.

Otherwise, wave C withi the 4th-wave upward correction continues its rise-and-retracement journey.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 25-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 1{-3} Minuette, 10/13/2022, 4603 (up)
• 1{-4} Subminuette, 4/7/2025, 4832 (up)
• 3{-5} Micro, 4/21/2025, 5127.25 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/1/2025, 6249.50 (up)
• 1{-7} Minuscule, 8/1/2025, 6349.50 (up)
• 3{-8} (unnamed), 8/5/2025, 6313.25 (up)
• 4{-9} (unnamed), 8/14/2025, 6508.75 (down)
• C{-10} (unnamed), 9/22/2025, 6756.75 (down)
• 1{-11} (unnamed), 9/22/2025, 6756.75 (down)
• 3{-12} (unnamed), 9/24/2025, 6728.50 (down)
• 4{-13} (unnamed), 9/25/2025, 6624.25 (up)
• C{-14} (unnamed), 9/25/2025, 6657.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 3 , 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com