3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 6720s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The rise is wave C, the 3rd and likely the final wave within the 4th-wave upward correction that began on October 10. When wave C is complete, it will likely be the end of wave 4, unless it takes a complex form with two or three three-wave corrective patterns. Wave 4 will be followed by downtrending wave 5, which will most likely carry the price into the 6450s and perhaps lower.

[Surprised by the sudden change in the analysis? Read my essay posted on October 12, titled “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’.“]

12:00 a.m. New York time

Correction notice. I mean a big correction. Like everyone else, I have no real experience with a broad decline spanning many degrees. Yet that’s what we have had since October 8. Bottom line: My inexperience led me into a horrendous error. I forgot that impulse waves tend to move in the direction of the trend, which is now down since October 8. I also forgot that every correction must be housed within an numbered corrective wave within the larger impulse wave.

I’ve corrected the chart, blushing as I work, and the analysis below to comform.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reversed overnight, falling from 6718.50 and so far almost reaching 6600.

What does it mean? In terms of Elliott wave theory, wave 5{-6} is now underway, the final subwave of declining wave 1{-5], which began on October 8. When wave 1{-5} is complete, an 2nd-wave upward correction will begin.

I

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25(down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/13/2025, 6718.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 14, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com