3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures has risen but slightly since my update of the analysis three hours and 15 minutes ago.

Elliott Wave Theory: The analysis has changed not at all. See the upper table, posted at 12:15 p.m. The lower table is outdated but I kept it so readers can easily see the changes.

12:15 p.m. New York time

Chart Interpretation updated. The futures’ rise that continued into the session this morning rose too far moving above the October 15 high and thereby breaking a rule of Elliott Wave Theory. As always, when the analysis no longer matches the reality on the chart, it’s time to make a change.

Under the new analysis, wave 4{-6}, a rising correction, is underway, and within it wave C[-7} is underway, the middle wave of a 5-wave sequence, waves A through E, in the form of an Expanding Diagonal Triangle.

See the new chart just below. I’ve retained this morning’s chart for comparison.

[Updated: S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose soon after trading resumed overnight, from 6694 into the 6740s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis concludes that wave A within the 2nd-wave upward correction that began on October 17 is still underway, although it is close to its endpoint. A declining wave B will follow, and then a rising wave C. Under most circumstances, wave C will be the end of parent wave 2. (On rare occasions a correction will take a complex form, containing two or three triple-wave corrective patterns. No sign of that here yet)

[Outdated: S&P 500 E-mini futures at 9:35 a.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

[Updated] These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 2{-5} Micro, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minscule, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 20, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com