3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise through the session, so far reaching into the 6850s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The rise is the 4th-wave upward correction that began on November 4. A drop lower at the end of the prior 3rd wave required a move lower in the placement of the endpoint of wave 3. I’ve made adjustment on the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight from the 6740s, reaching slighty below 6810 as the opening bell approached,

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the rise as part of a low-degree 4th-wave upward correction. I’ll use the labeling system of the chart for clarity. The correction is rising wave 4{-9} within declining wave 3{-8}, which in turn i a subwave of decliining wave 1{-7}. The whole structure is part of wave 5{-6}, a downtrending wave that began on October 30 from 6789.75.

Wave 5{-6}, in turn, began on October 30 and continues to decline.

Once the upward 4th-wave correction is complete, the final subwave, wave 5, will continue its fall, brinnging to an end the larger 3rd wave and begining another 4th-wave upward correction of a larger degree.

In the end, the entire 1st-wave decline — wave 1{5} — will end, having begun on October 8 from a major turning point n the markets, from 6812.25.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 2{-5} Micro, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/30/2025, 6853.75 (down)
  • 1{-7} Minscule, 10/30/2025, 6853.75 (down)
  • 3{-8} (no name), 11/3/2025, 6909.50 (down)
  • 4{-9} (no name), 11/14/2025, 6748.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 5, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com