3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to fall during the session, so far reaching into the 6730s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The decline was sufficiently large to require a reworking of the analysis. Farewell to wave 4{-9}, the rising correction that began on November 4 from 6748.50. It ended on November 5 at 6857.75. Downtrending wave 5{-9} began from that point and is still underway.

Long-story short: The principal analysis was disproven in favor of the alternative analysis.

When wave 5{-9} is complete, it will also be the end of wave 3{-8}, which began on November 3 from 6909.50. A 4th-wave upward correction, wave 4{-8} will come next, and then a downtrending 5th wave, wave 5{-8}, somewhat longer than the one now underway.

That larger 5th wave, when complete, will be the end of the parent wave that encompasses it all: Wave 1{-7}, which began on October 30 as the initial subwave of wave 5{-6}, now underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures from from 6804 to 6843.50 overnight and then fell sharply, so far back into the 6810s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis: The rise and fall are part of a large decline that began on November 5. I’ve concluded that the movement is a subwave correction within within rising wave 4{-9}, which is not yet complete.

An alternative analysis would see the November 5 peak as the end of 4{-9} and the subsequent decline as the early stages of downtrending wave 5{-9}. But I don’t think we’re there yet.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 38-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 2{-5} Micro, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/30/2025, 6853.75 (down)
  • 1{-7} Minscule, 10/30/2025, 6853.75 (down)
  • 3{-8} (no name), 11/3/2025, 6909.50 (down)
  • 5{-9} (no name), 11/5/2025, 6857.75 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 6, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com