3:30 p.m. New YorkTime

Half an hour before the closing bell.The S&P 500 futures continued to climb during the session and so far has reached the 6860s. Elliott Wave Theory: Wave A continues, within the 4th-wave upward correction that began on November 7.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell to a low of 6772 shortly after trading resumed overnight on Sunday, and the rose into the 6820s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis counts the rise as a continuation of the first subwave, wave A{-9} on the chart, within a 4th-wave upward correction, wave 4{-8} on the chart, that began on November 7. The 4th wave, if typical, will have three subwaves.

The first of those subwaves, wave A, has taken a five subwave pattern during its rise, making the correction a Zigzag pattern. Wave B will follow, with three subwaves, and theb wave C, with five subwaves. If the correction is typical, the end of wave C will also be the end of the 4th-wave correction, and the beginning of a downtrending wave 5, which will likely move below the end of the prior 3rd wave, 6655,50..

I’ve found that 5th waves are quirky beasts. They often come up short, ending above the end of wave 3, and sometimes that extend far below that level to a shocking extent.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 40-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 2{-5} Micro, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/30/2025, 6853.75 (down)
  • 1{-7} Minscule, 10/30/2025, 6853.75 (down)
  • 4{-8} (no name), 11/3/2025, 6909.50 (up)
  • A{-9} (no name), 11/5/2025, 6655.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 10, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com