3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell.The S&P 500 futures reached a low of 6680.70 as the opening bell sounded and then rose through the session, so far reaching slightly above 6700.

Elliott Wave Theory: Wave 5{-8} ended at today’s low, and that was also the end of its parent wave, 1{-7}. A 2nd-wave upward correction, wave 2{-7} within downtrending wave 5{-6}, which began on October 30, now underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to fall overnight, from 6775 so far into the 6670s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis shows five clear waves since the present decline began on November 12. They are subwaves of what was labeled declining wave B in yesteray’s analysis.

A B wave has three subwaves, not five. And that anomaly requires a reassessment of the analysis.

The new principal analysis: Rising ave 4{-8} ended on November 11 at 6900.50,and downtrending wave 5{-8} began.Wave 5{-8} is in its 5th and finalsubwave, wave 5{-9}.

The entire structure lies within downtrending wave 1{-7}, which began on October 30, the first subwave within downtrending wave 5{-6}, which began simultaneously with wave 1.

This is the most bearish configuration the market can form in the short term: A set of multiple nested first waves inside a terminal 5th wave of a larger degree. Implication: More downside ahead.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 50-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 2{-5} Micro, 10/17/2025, 6571.25 (up}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/30/2025, 6853.75 (down)
  • 2{-7} Minscule, 11/14/2025, 6670.50 (up)
  • 5{-8} (no name), 11/12/2025, 6909.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 14, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com