3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to trade narrowly during the session, mainly in 6600s.

Elliiott Wave Theory: The patterns traced on the chart during the session strengthens the likelihood that the upward correction, wave 4{-7}, has begun. I have changed the chart to conform,

Internally, the initial subwave, rising wave A{-8}, appears to be compete and the middle subwave, falling wave B{-8} is underway. I’m hedging the opinion because I can’t rule out the possibility that the decline is a subwave within wave A{-8}.

How high is wave 4{-7} likely to carry the price? Based on the wave structure of the chart, most like end will be between the 6700s and 6730s. Could go a bit higher.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from 6613.25 up into the 6660s and thern resumed its fall.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis continues to see downtrending wave 3{-7} as being underway.

As long as the price remains below 6801.50 — the starting point of wave 3{-7} — then I shall consider the downtrending wave to be continuing. If the price rises above that point, then wave 4{-7} has begun.

All of this has been playing out within downtrending wave 5{-6}, and one degree higher, with downtrending wave 1{-5}.

Today’s motivator, at present, for the public opinion mover that drives the market will occur at 2 p.m. New York time, when the Federal Open Market Committee publishes minutes of its October interest-rate-setting meeting. It will likely be seen by many as a clue for what the comittee will do at its next meeting, December 9-10.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/30/2025, 6853.75 (down)
  • 4{-7} Minscule, 11/18/2025, 6594(up)
  • B{-8} (no name), 11/18/2025, 6709 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 19, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com