3:30 p.m. New York Time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to a higher high near 6869.25. So far, price has bld near the high rather than retreating sharply.

Elliott Wave Theory. The ability to hold that high supports the view that rising wave A{-9}—the first of three subwaves within wave 2{-8} (an upward correction)—has been underway since November 21.

For several days it was plausible that the middle wave, declining wave B{-9}, had begun. With price now making and holding a higher high, that scenario is no longer the lead count.

So what we know is this:

Wave 2{-8} is taking the form of a diagonal/triangle variant, and therefore is expected to subdivide into five waves.

A counter-trend rising wave 2{-8} has been underway for a couple of weeks.

It is a subwave within downtrending wave 5{-7}, whose parent is downtrending wave 5{-6}, within downtrending wave 1{-5}.

A breakdown back below 6854.50 would be the first signal that the alternate (B{-9}) path is back in play.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from the 6830s to the 6860s, and then rapidly dropped back into the 6810s.

What does it mean? Viewed through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory analysis, the price rose slightly above the end of rising wave A{-9} and immediately withdrew to the downside.

The move above what had been labeled the end of wave A{-9} confirms that wave A{-9} was underway into December 3 — today. Had the price remained above that level, then I would treat it as confirmation that rising wave A{-9} continues. However, the rapid decline suggests that wave A{-9} has ended, on December 3, and wave B{-9} has begun. That’s how I’ve marked the chart.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • A{-9} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 3, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com