3:30 p,m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P500 futures moved its high point for the day slightly higher, to 6905, and then fell back into the 6860s.

Elliott Wave Theory. That higher high was yet another confirmation that wave A{-9}, the first subwave within an upward correction, wave 2{-8}, is underway, and the decline that follow was the wave A jokester chuckling, “but maybe wave B{-9} has begun.”

My strategy as an Elliotician will be to stick with wave A until the price closes below the lowest low for the day — 6856.75 so far today. If that happens, and the next trading day the price remains below that level, then I may consider switching the analysis back to the wave B scenario.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to 6886.25 overnight, a new high in the rise that began on November 21. The price then fell to the 6850s and rose again to 6886.25.

What does it mean? The higher high, when viewed through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory, means that wave A{-9} within a 2nd upwave upward correction, wave 2{-8}, is underway and has been underway since November 21. It’s an ongoing series of false peaks that have kept the chart ambiguous since December began, with repeated movements that appeared to be the end of wave A and the beginning of decllinging wave B, but really weren’t.

As with the previous false peaks, the price immediately declined, falling to 6858.75.

Has wave A ended and wave B begun? Not confirmed. I’ll treat B{-9} as underway only after acceptance below 6823.14 (and ideally below 6792.53) with follow-through; any break above 6886.25 keeps the “A{-9} still extending” case in play.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 35-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • A{-9} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 5, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com