3.30 p.m. New York time.

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session to 6872.75 and then retreated to the 6850s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The futures continue to occupy the middle ground, neither clearly rising as wave A{-9} nor fallng as wave B{-9}, leaving the nature of the movements swimming in a pool of ambiguity.

Analyzing the signals that might bring clarity, the AI ChatGPT writes: “Today’s tape still argues for transition, not trend. ES bounced from roughly 6845 to about 6873, but then slipped back to the 6855 decision line—classic retest behavior that doesn’t yet confirm a new down leg. For B{-9} to look ‘real,’ ES would need to fail at/under 6855 and then accept below 6845, with the next major confirmation coming on a decisive break of the ~6823 shelf (and less ambiguity below 6791.25). If, instead, ES reclaims 6855 and holds, then pushes back above ~6873, the market keeps the door open to A{-9} resuming and another attempt toward 6905.”

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded narrowly overnight, producing a net decline from the 6860s to the 6840s. The rise that began on November 21 peaked on December 5 at 6905 and then reversed. However, there is as yet no confirmation that the reversal is a true change in the market direction. Confirmation would come from a decisive break below the ~6823 shelf, followed by a rebound that fails to reclaim the 6855–6885 zone.

What does it mean? The rise from November 21, view lens of Elliott Wave Theory, is risng wave A{-9}, the first subwave within an upward correction, wave 2{-8}. The question posed by the chart today, once again, is whether wave A{-9} ended at the peak on December 5, which would mean that B{-9] has begun its decline, or whether wave A{-9} is still underway.

Until there is confirmation of a true directional change, I shall continue to label the ongoing wave as wave A[-9}.

As it turns out, today’s decline increases the odds that wave A{-9} is over. I rely on the AI to handle this complex analysis, and turn to ChatGPT for a report:

---

ChatGPT writes:

On this chart, it still isn’t proven that B{-9} is underway, but the market is behaving more like the early innings of B than like a clean continuation of A.

First—tiny typo check: I’m assuming your overnight range was 6860s–6840s (the chart is in the 6800s, with last around 6849.5).

What the tape is saying right now

• The 12/5 high at 6905 remains the obvious candidate for the end of A{-9}.
• Monday’s decline broke the 6845–6855 “line of defense” and has not reclaimed it with authority.
• Overnight is narrow + beneath that broken area → that’s consistent with a market that’s digesting a break (often how a B-leg starts), but it hasn’t yet taken out the next support.

The two scenarios (and what would confirm each)

1) B{-9} has begun (more likely if support gives way)

• What you’d expect next: a break of the ~6823 shelf, then a failed bounce that can’t get back above 6855–6885.
• “Not proven” trigger: a decisive move under 6791.25 (the 11/20 pivot). That’s when it starts to look less like chop and more like a real down leg.

2) A{-9} is still underway (still possible, but it needs a reclaim)

• What you’d want to see: hold 6823, then reclaim 6855, then push back into 6885–6895.
• Confirmation: take out 6905 and hold above it (acceptance, not just a tag).

A quick proportional clue (why B isn’t “confirmed” yet)

A{-9} ran roughly 6525 → 6905 (~380 points). A typical B retrace often reaches 6760 (38%), 6715 (50%), or 6670 (62%). We’re only ~56 points off the top so far—so either:

• This is still a corrective pause inside wave A
• Or, wave B is just starting

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 45-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} Minuscule, 11/20/2025, 6791.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • A{-9} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 9, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com