3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures declined sharply during the session, reaching below 6800.

Elliott Wave Theory: The 4th wave upward correction that began on November 21 at 6525 ended on December 15 at 6932.25. In the mark-up of the chart: Wave 4{-7} has ended and wave 5{-7} has begun.

The 5th wave will likely move below the start of wave 4 — 6525. Fifth waves have a lot of variation, though, so it could stop short of that level, or it could drop a surprising distance below it.

Also, that expanding triangle I thought was happening for the past few days? It never happened. The chart gained clarity with today’s swift and larger reversal, allowing a more likely analysis, the end of wave 4 and the start of wave 5.

And a note of caution: In past months we’ve all learned to be observant for head-fake reversals, where a decline appears to have started the next downward wave reverses and continues it’s rise. It could happen here, but maybe it won’t.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from the 5830s to the 5880s, remaining within the range of the net sideways movement that began on December 5. It began to decline as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the rise since that began on November 21 as being a 4th-wave upward correction. It is now in its second subwave, declning wave B{-8}.

The nature of B{-8} lacks clarity. It’s possible to see it as an expanding triangle, which will have five subwaves. It’s also possible to see it as a contracting/running triangle. It’s an excellent example of the ambiguity that abounds Elliott Wave Theory.

One way it will attain clarity will be as the internal count with wave B progresses. B waves have three subwaves, and it’s the subwave count that is the source of the unclarity.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} (none), 12/15/2025, 6932.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 17, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com