3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures spent the session in a range from the 6920s to the 6960s, with an intraday low of 6924.75 and a high of 6964.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave B{-9} within falling wave 4{-8} continues.

The rally that began on 1/21 from 6814.50 started at the end of wave A{-9}, which completed in three subwaves down to the low (ending with wave C{-10}). By classic Elliott Wave form, wave B{-9} must follow, and the market’s behavior fits that expectation: a sharp, near-vertical advance several hours into the session, followed by choppy back-and-forth trading as the rise begins to subdivide into smaller-degree waves.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight from 6938 to 6963.25, then pulled back into the 6920s as the opening bell approached. The price rose into the 6940s in the first few minutes of trading.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis remains unchanged. From smaller to larger: rising wave A{-10} is underway inside rising wave B{-9}, which is the middle subwave inside declining corrective wave 4{-8}.

Wave 4{-8} began on January 13 from 7036.25. The current countertrend rise, wave B{-9}, began on January 21 from 6814.50.

The entire structure remains contained within wave C{-7}, the final subwave of the larger upward correction, wave 4{-6}, which began on October 10, 2025 from 6540.25. Wave 4{-6} continues to take the form of an expanding triangle, with five subwaves labeled A{-7} through E{-7}, each falling lower and climbing higher than the wave that came before it.

Here are the levels to watch, based on analysis by the AI ChatGPT:

• On the upside, a push back above 6994 would strengthen the case that B{-9} is extending; 7036.25 remains the hard ceiling that would force a broader re-think.
• 6814.50 is the key floor. A break below it would likely end B{-9} and resume the next decline within 4{-8}.
• 6866.75 is the next nearby decision point; losing it would weaken the bounce materially.
• On the upside, a push back above 6994 would strengthen the case that B{-9} is extending; 7036.25 remains the hard ceiling that would force a broader re-think.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)
  • A{-10} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 23, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com