3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session, reaching 6995.50. As noted in this morning’s analysis, holding above 6994 strengthens the case that the current move is advancing rather than fading.

Elliott Wave Theory: The market remains in rising wave B{-9} within declining corrective wave 4{-8}. In Elliott Wave Theory, B waves are corrective structures and are typically composed of three internal swings (though they can become more complex). On today’s chart, wave B{-9} appears to be progressing into its later internal phase, consistent with an unfolding bounce within a larger correction. The next upside reference remains 7036.25; a drop back below 6994 would weaken today’s signal and return the tape to range-first behavior.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened the overnight session with a sharp drop to 6879, then reversed higher, climbing back above 6950.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave context remains range-bound and corrective. The overnight low held above 6866.75 (the 1/2 pivot), so the market has not confirmed a breakdown in the current bounce. But the rebound is still below 6994 (12/26 pivot), so it has not confirmed a strong upside continuation either.

Bottom line. The chart remains indecisive, and the working lineup stays: Rising wave B{-9} within declining corrective wave 4{-8}, within rising wave C{-7}, within rising corrective wave 4{-6}. Key tells: Below 6866.75 = B{-9} likely fails / 4{-8} reasserts. Above 6994 = B{-9} strengthens (next reference: 7036.25).

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 100-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 26, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com