3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching a high of 7018.50.

Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave B{-9} within declining corrective wave 4{-8} continues.

A sustained move above 6994 keeps the upside case intact.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from 6997 at the closing bell to a peak so far of 7006.50. From that point the price declined into the 6990s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees wave B{-9} as continuing its rise. Yesterday’s rise suggested that the wave had more upside remaining, and the facts on the chart confirmed that insight. At this point, a new question arises: Was the overnight peak the end of wave B{-9} and has wave C{-9} begun?

Wave B{-9} is a subwave of wave 4{-8}, which in turn is a subwave of wave C{-7}, which began on November 21, 2025, from 6525. The parent wave is wave 4{-6}, which began on October 10, 2025 from 6540.25.

Each leg of wave 4{-6} so far has moved beyond the previous high or low of prior waves moving in the same direction, suggesting that the wave is taking the form of an Expanding Triangle. That form has five subwaves. Wave 4{-6} is in its C subwave, which is rising. Looking ahead, I expected wave C{-7} to move beyond the peak of wave A{-7}, 6953.75 on October 29 — which it did on January 21. Falling wave D{-7} will fall below the end point of wave B{-7}, 6525. And rising wave E{-7} will complete wave 4{-6} when it moves beyond the prior rising subwave, wave C{-7}, now underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 160-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 27, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com